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Originally Posted by JPSeraph
Hey, you ignored my funky little model. Given that you see the need to include defense in evaluating a player's overall value and that, as yet, we have no reliable quantitative measure for defense, how should defense factor into our evaluations?
Or more importantly, how should you evaluate defense?
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Good question. I consider defense, from an a priori standpoint, to be a bit less important than offense for an individual player. I'd say that it's the most important single factor after scoring. I arrive at this conclusion thusly:
1. From a team standpoint, defense is as important as offense. Every point you prevent (that the average team wouldn't) is as valuable as every point you score (that the average team wouldn't). I'm specifying "from average" to take away the element that offenses have the objective edge on defense...on average, every possession is worth over 1 point. Half of all possessions do not end in defensive stops. But if you adjust both sides from what the average team would do, this isn't a concern and defense above the average (or marginal defense) is worth exactly as much as offense above the average (or marginal offense).
2. On an individual level, the value of defense shrinks from equal importance. The reason for this is that a single star can consistently cause an offensive possession to result in success, by making an individual play that scores a basket. While it's difficult, it's possible for one player to score without (substantative) help from his teammates (they do need to be out there and theoretically threatening
). However, a single star cannot consistently cause a defensive possession to result in success. That's because the offense controls where the ball goes and can avoid that star. If the star's teammates are duffers on defense, there's nothing he can do to prevents scores beyond the rare steal or block.
Based on those two logical premises, I conclude that individual defense is worth a lot, but not as much as
all individual offense combined and probably not even quite as much as scoring alone. But probably more than any other single factor.
Scientific, no. Logically reasonable, yes, in my opinion.
After that, it's just opinion how good someone is on defense. But at least I have some idea how to weigh that opinion in comparison with their more certain production. If I think player X plays great defense, that's more valuable than player Y's great Rebound Rate, in my opinion.
Weighing in defense is a mixture of opinion and logic, then. Opinion on the quality of defense, logic on how much the defense is worth.
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One of the joys of life: sharing a fundamental point of view, and then adopting two rather different approaches.
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Makes for good discussions!