Thread: Could we end up with the fourth pick?
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Old 04-04-2007, 12:30 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Could we end up with the fourth pick?
Quote:
Originally Posted by rx2web
Look out! I did some number crunching. In looking at the current rankings as of this morning, the teams remaining schedule I believe that Portland will be in the #4 spot. here's what I did.

* I grabbed the bottom 8 teams, basically anyone with 30 wins or less.
* I counted the number of games remaining for each team.
* I scored their remaining schedule according to this criteria:
* If they play a team that is above them in the rankings they win.
* If they play a team with a lower record they lose.
* I clumped #1,2,3 together and didn't include them in the rankings and left them where they are currently ranked as using the criteria listed above, they wouldn't win any more games.
* I added up the numbers of wins and losses for each team and got an estimated final standings.

Now I know that this isn't perfect. It's far from it in fact. This is the NBA and anything can happen on any given night with various teams. A bad team can beat a good one etc. So this is just a guess based on the closest statistical information that I can justify using.

Here we go...the numbers: (items in Bold are wins)

Atlanta
Current Rank: #4
Record: 27-47
Games Remaining: 8
Opponents: NJ, MIL, PHL, BOS, WAS, CLE, MIL, IND
Projected Record: 30-52

Charlotte
Current Rank: #5
Record: 29-46
Games Remaining: 7
Opponents: WAS, IND, MIA, MIA, CHI, MIL, NY
Projected Record: 30-52

Philadelphia
Current Rank: #6 (tie)
Record: 29-44
Games Remaining: 9
Opponents: NY, TOR, ATL, IND, BOS, ORL, DET, CLE, TOR
Projected Record: 31-51

Portland
Current Rank: #6 (tie)
Record: 29-44
Games Remaining: 9
Opponents: UTA, HOU, DAL, SA, HOU, LAC, SEA, UTA, GS
Projected Record: 29-53

Seattle
Current Rank: #7
Record: 30-44
Games Remaining: 8
Opponents: NOK, LAL, UTA, HOU, PHO, POR, LAL, DAL
Projected Record: 31-51

So the bottom 8 look like this:
  1. Memphis
  2. Boston
  3. Milwaulkee
  4. Portland
  5. Atlanta
  6. Charlotte
  7. Philadelphia
  8. Seattle

So that gives Portland nearly a 12% chance of the #1 Spot. Because of the ties in record of ATL and CHA and PHI and SEA...the averaging of their ping pong balls actually helps Portland (I believe)
Overall your post is good, but you should have included Milwaukee as well. Seven of their nine games are against lotto teams. They have two games each against BOS and ATL. Both those teams look to be in full tank mode. Milwaukee can easily get to 29/30 wins just based off of the other teams tanking as much as them. There could be a 2 or 3 way tie for the third picks ping pong balls!
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