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Re: Could we end up with the fourth pick?
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Originally Posted by ProudBFan
In any event, at this point our chances at landing the #1 or #2 pick depend on a lucky bounce of the ping-pong balls. I don't really see any incentive there for the Blazers to tank.
Think about it: Even if Zach and LaMarcus *could* play, how many games would we likely win from here on out? 3? 4? Losing out (not picking up those 3 or 4 wins) doesn't improve our chances at either of the top two picks significantly over winning those 3 or 4 games. Again, no real incentive for the Blazers to tank.
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I know people have showed some numbers in another thread, but that's not accurate.
Even three games could mean the difference between the 4th- and 8th- or 9th-worst record (or even lower). And those odds are significantly different for both getting into the top 2 and higher overall. The 4th-worst record has a 11.9% chance for getting the top pick while the 9th spot has a 1.7% chance, for example, and there's a similar jump in the case of the second pick.
Ed O.
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"In the end, it all comes down to talent. You can talk all you want about intangibles, I just don't know what that means. Talent makes winners, not intangibles. Can nice guys win? Sure, nice guys can win -- if they're nice guys with a lot of talent. Nice guys with a little talent finish fourth, and nice guys with no talent finish last."
-- Sandy Koufax
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