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Old 07-09-2007, 07:35 AM   #2 (permalink)
jericho
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Re: East. First Round - #4 St. Louis Hawks vs #5 Chicago Bulls

This is a great matchup that could reasonably go either way. Here's the Hawks' perspective on the series...

Offensive Plan:

The Hawks are very versatile and can be thoroughly opportunistic about how they attack the Bulls. The default is deliberate half-court sets--pick-and-rolls, and an inside-outside balance. Both centers (who will frequently be on the court together) are excellent at passing out of double teams to find cutters and shooters.

Duncan obviously has a solid jumper and will look to draw Walton out on occasion, making room for King to drive in or for Payton to post up KJ or Knight. The Hawks' PGs have a significant size/strength advantage that they will play to often.

But the Hawks can also fly very effectively on the break, with any of the bigs throwing the outlet pass. King is virtually unparalleled as a transition scorer, Richmond and Jefferson are excellent, and even Buck and Silas run very well.

The Bulls clearly have excellent defense on the wings in their starting unit, but take a bit hit if the reserves spend much time on the floor. McDaniel is more of a power 3 who logged significant time as an undersized PF, and I think he would have great difficulty staying with King or Jefferson. Marques Johnson is out of place at shooting guard, and I think Toney would run rings around him.

So I look for a varied attack--a lot of continuous motion and ball movement (especially between the PGs and Cs) when in half-court, and to run whenever the opportunity presents itself. Duncan and Payton are both masters at controlling the tempo, and should be able to set the pace intelligently rather than overreacting to whatever Chicago is trying to do.

Defensive Plan:

Chicago has some decent scoring balance, but Hondo is the only truly explosive scorer. Everyone else is a pretty comfortable single cover. Havlicek is dangerous with the ball in his hands and of course will get his points. But King is big and strong and can body him up a bit. Richmond/Toney can experiment with cheating off of DJ/Marques, to make it harder for Hondo to get the ball or drive with it. Jefferson will see some time on him and is a very able defender. And if Havlicek seems to be on the verge of blowing up, I can run a 3-guard lineup with Gus covering the opposing point and Payton on Hondo. This is the same Payton who covered Jordan and arguably outplayed him in the NBA Finals.

Overall:

It's all about the key matchups.

I think Duncan and Walton will drive each other crazy, but with the ability of Duncan and Payton to make the tempo work for them, I think Duncan has the edge here.

Payton has size and strength on KJ, is at least as good a scorer and a much better defender and rebounder.

King will make Havlicek work hard on defense, being the more explosive scorer between the two of them, but I know Hondo will get his points as well. Team defense will be geared toward making sure he can't run away with the game.

Again, this should be a great series, and both teams deserve to win. Good luck to the Bulls!
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Favorite players: Hakeem Olajuwon, Moses Malone, Bill Russell, Alex English, Kiki Vandeweghe, Sidney Moncrief, Lafayette Lever, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones, Julius Erving, Rick Barry, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West...and Brooks Thompson
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