Well, I'll say at the outset that this is one of the possible matchups I haven't looked forward to since the beginning of the season, since the Bullets' two best players play the same positions as--and were drafted ahead of--the Hawks' two best players. It's possible that my road ends here, but let's try anyway...

Payton-Frazier should be an awesome matchup and highly entertaining. The only notable edge either has is that Clyde is a somewhat better outside shooter. He still has to be able to get that jumper off, though. I think these two guys are plastered all over each other through the entire series, with each having a big game here and there but neither dominating the other.

Wilt is obviously the key factor in the series, and there's no way to really stop him. But the Hawks won't panic. Duncan will play him (carefully) straight up for most of the first three quarters. Boston generally had to give Russell help, since he gave up 4 inches and about 80 lbs. to a prime Wilt. Duncan gives up a negligible inch and 40 lbs. He's much bigger and stronger than the vast majority of opponents Wilt terrorized, and will be harder to muscle than both Kareem and Russell. Wilt's strength will still get him into position, but remember that his bread-and-butter shot wasn't a high percentage wheel-and-dunk (see: Shaq) or skyhook (see: Kareem), but instead a fadeaway jumper. He was criticized for it in his day, but he was desperate to prove that he was a true athlete and even artist on the floor--not a monster or physical freak. He admitted himself that he didn't really play to his own strengths.

And as was the case with Russell in the previous series, Duncan isn't giving up all that much of an advantage in rebounding.

Again, Wilt gets his points here, and more than likely is the series' high scorer. But all this goes to say that he's not going to overwhelm Timmy. Buck or Silas can swing over occasionally to help with a strong body on Wilt occasionally, but for the most part Duncan will play him straight up. McGinnis, after all, is a higher percentage scorer than the Stilt, so the Hawks can't give him easy straight-up jumpers.

The fourth quarter, though, the Hawks go shamelessly into Hack-a-Wilt territory. Duncan will swing to PF, where he is way too big and too skilled a defender for McGinnis, let alone Jones, to do much with. Daugherty, Buck and Silas will happily parcel out their fouls to send the big man to the line, slowing down the game and encouraging the Bullets to try other options.

On offense, the Hawks will play the game that helped them squeeze past Indiana--pushing the pace to give King, Richmond and Jefferson their looks in transition, and in the half court letting Duncan step up for his bread-and-better jumper so that Wilt has to choose between keeping a hand in his face or taking his intimidating presence out of the paint. Duncan/Daugherty will generally opt for the high post, setting up the virtuoso slashers and shooters (Richmond and Toney, especially). Marion is a good and versatile defender, but King should get his points both in isolation and in transition. If he's guarded by Jones, that takes a superior scorer and rebounder off the floor for Washington.

Richmond could be an important factor here, remembering that Lever (one of my favorite players ever) racked up most of his impressive figures against opposing PGs with less size, skill and range than Mitch.

I expect both sets of starters to play very heavy minutes, with Bobby Jones maybe seeing the most PT off anyone's bench. But again, the reserve bigs will take turns throwing themselves at Wilt later in the game. If Lever is finding ways to take Richmond off the dribble, I'll have no compunction switching in Toney, who was ridiculously strong for his size and a bit fleeter of foot. I mostly agree with Baron's assessment of the benches, although should point out that Silas was no slouch defensively, was a much better rebounder than Jones, and a terrific winner. And Williams and Jefferson bring more defensively than Hinrich and Prince do as scorers.

Wilt's presence will give Washington the edge with the Vegas oddsmakers, but it stands to reason that Duncan can give him as much trouble as anyone he ever faced, and the Hawks will happily force him to the foul line as the game progresses. St. Louis' wings, especially King, should find enough scoring opportunities--even against the Bullets' fine defenders--to keep the Hawks within range for the first three quarters, and Frazier will find himself plagued by the best defender he's ever faced. Duncan is a master at controlling the tempo at crunch time, and Toney and Duncan will be looked to for clutch baskets when the chips are down.

Should be a great series. Good luck Baron!

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Favorite players: Hakeem Olajuwon, Moses Malone, Bill Russell, Alex English, Kiki Vandeweghe, Sidney Moncrief, Lafayette Lever, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones, Julius Erving, Rick Barry, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West...and Brooks Thompson