luther

I think it is a good decision. Thabeet is someone who is currently held back in terms of draft stock by things that can be improved upon--almost the opposite end of the spectrum from a Tyler Hansbrough. Thabeet has appeared almost clueless at times on the court, being a relative newcomer to basketball. As he continues to develop actual skills to complement his natural talent and size, his stock can only go up. (If he fails in that regard, well, then he has nobody else to blame but himself.)

He has a place in the NBA regardless, just because he's big and can impact a game defensively with his shot-blocking, while not being as immobile as a lot of guys that size. Right now if he declared, I think he'd go in the 15-25 range, depending on who stays in the draft and how some workouts go. But he could push himself to be a legitimate high lottery pick and make a lot more money earlier in his career. I realize his family desperately needs the money, which is why he talked about declaring the past couple of years. But hopefully they can hang on and he can keep getting better, because they may be much better off for it.

How much? If he left this year and went 20th, he'd be guaranteed about $2.5 million over his two guaranteed seasons. If he goes 5th in 2009 (not a lock, but not impossible, either), he is guaranteed about $6.3 million in his first two seasons (using this year's figures ... it would likely be a little more).