Quote:
Originally Posted by Oldmangrouch
Realistically, we are looking at adding 9 wins just to make a run at the post-season. To get into the top 4, we are looking at maybe 15 wins. That is no small task!
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I think this is a fallacy. Just cause it was so hard to get into the playoffs this year does not mean that it will require similar wins next season. This is for several reasons.
1 - Good teams get better and take wins from lesser teams.
Let's just take LA as an example. Next year, they will most likely be even better. Bynum only played 35 games this year and Ariza was also injured for large stretches. They will also have a chance in the offseason to grab another player or two to fill gaps. As LA improves, they will be win more games not only against weak teams, but also against other top teams, hence lowering the amount of wins that seeds 3-8 would likely have. Other top teams that might be on the rise include NO. Paul has improved every year. They will also be able to fill some gaps during the offseason. So, as good teams turn great, other good teams win a few less. The best team in the West this year only won 57 games, usually the top team will win in the mid 60's.
2 - Good teams will get worse due to age/poor decisions. Teams like Dallas and Phoenix did a very good job during the regular season, then made a trade that made them even older and they are not as good as they were. They may improve during the off-season, but they may get worse. As they decline, the numbers of wins needed decreases.
3 - Injuries to old teams. Teams like the Spurs and Phoenix rely heavily on a lot of vets. The older the player gets, the more likely they are to get injured. this could completely change the makeup of teams in the playoffs
4 - Bad teams get better. Teams like the Wolves, Sonics and Clippers should all be better next year. This will make it harder for teams to win consistently against the lesser teams.
Basically, it is my belief that this year was a perfect storm situation that resulted in extraordinary parody amongst the top teams in the West and extreme diversity between the top teams and the worst teams. The result of this storm is that 49 wins were required to get into the playoffs. In almost every other year, 40-46 wins would ensure a spot. Sure, there will still be a wide gap between the East and West so it will be harder to get into the playoffs then in the East, but I highly doubt that it will be as hard as it was this year. My prediction is that 44-45 wins next year will make the playoffs in the west.