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Originally Posted by PorterIn2004
I'm also pretty aware of the numbers that guys like Howard, Horford, and others have put in their first years. Generally it's been something around 10 and 10. I wouldn't be surprised to see Oden beat that. I could see something like 15 and 10 with perhaps as many as 3 assists and something like 1.5 blocks.
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as good of a rookie season as horford had, i'm expecting oden's rookie season to easily top horford's rookie season. horford wasn't close to the prospect that oden is projecting to be. howard, on the other hand, was an excellent prospect that was closer to oden's level as a prospect. but what's important that's being left out here is that howard came out of h.s. when he put up 12 and 10. oden had a year of competition in college and also a year to get acclimated with his teammates, coaching staffs, and the system that his team is running.
all those are factors in which i believe oden's rookie season will be better than both howard's and horford's. of course, this is all assuming oden will be completely healthy once training camp starts.
as an aside, i'd bet good money oden will average more than 1.5 blk/game.
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I also expect him to have a significant impact away from the stat sheet with altered shots and the like.
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most definately.
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All that said, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rudy Fernandez come in and have a yet bigger impact, with all kinds of game-changing shots, including at the ends of both the first half and the end of games. I think that, on the offensive side of the ball, he's got the potential to come in and have a nearly Kobe Bryant-like impact.
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i would like nothing more than to believe in your extremely optimistic view of rudy, but i just can't. kobe bryant-like impact? the mvp of this season? the sure-fire future h.o.f.?
look, it's quite simple for me. i'll readily admit that i haven't seen rudy play much outside of his youtube highlights, so my assessment of him very well could be way off. but we're talking about the 24th pick last year. yes, i know, he has improved quite a bit. i just don't buy that at 23 year old, only over a year, his game has improved so much that he went from the supposedly 24th best prospect to being projected to have a kobe bryant-like impact (offensively) in his rookie season in the nba.
i find this so far stretched that i'm thinking i might be misunderstanding you instead of you actually believing this. even with rudy's supposedly improved game, pritchard himself, only projects rudy to be top 10 in this draft. who in this year's draft is projecting to have a kobe bryant-like impact (offensively) in their rookie season? even beasely won't have that kind of an impact, imo, especially in his rookie season. and he's the near consensus to be the no. 1 pick!
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Am I expecting that? I wouldn't go that far. But I could see Fernandez having that kind of huge impact more easily than I can Oden (at either end), at least over the first half of the season.
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for me, it all comes down to who's the better prospect, and that is far and away greg oden. we are still talking about the no. 1 pick (over durant, the r.o.y., a guy that could have been the no. 1 pick in many other drafts), who many basketball minds believe to be the best big man prospect to come into the nba in around a decade. and rudy? all the euro league championships, individual accolades, the same ones that anthony parker won.
is it possible that rudy will have a bigger impact than oden will in their rookie seasons? sure, anything is possible. but i think it's more likely that outlaw will be better than roy than it is that rudy will have a bigger impact than oden will (next season, or thereafter).
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edit: I realized I didn't include guesses for Fernandez's stats so, roughly: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.5 steals, decent shooting percentages from all over the floor, and at least a half-dozen game-winning shots.
I realize that I'm guessing Oden's raw stats to be, on the whole, better than Fernandez. However, I think the step up from Jack to Fernandez will be hugely greater than the step from someone like Frye to Oden, at least for the first half of next season. After that, all bets are off. 
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i'll be happy with the stats that you're predicting for rudy, and i think it's realistic. i predict oden's stats to be around 15 pts, 11 rebs, 2.5 blks, shooting in the mid to high 50's in percentage. including the defensive impact that oden will have, i think that's easily better than the impact you're projecting rudy to have.
i also strongly disagree with you that the step up from jack to rudy is hugely greater than the step up of frye to oden. frye is hardly a better player than jack. rudy will be lucky if he ever gets mentioned in the same breath as oden, which i guess you and i already did. to illustrate what i mean, it's more like this:
frye = > jack
rudy >> jack
oden >>>>>>>>>> frye
oden >>>>>>> rudy (even in their rookie seasons)
i hope, and am expecting rudy to be better than jack, but i don't think he'll be a significant upgrade, at least not in his rookie season. comparing frye to oden is laughable, even in oden's rookie season.
with that last sentence, i'm thinking you greatly underestimate the impact oden will have more so than you are overrating rudy.