maxiep

I think the endgame on this nomination is going to be fascinating. First, I'm thrilled that Oregon is going to get so much attention--we're historically a political afterthought.

The problem is that there's no carrot the Democratic Party can offer Sen. Clinton. I really can't see her wanting to be Vice President. Harry Reid isn't going to step aside and let her be Majority Leader, and Nancy Pelosi is going to do everything she can to stop it as well because she wants to be the most powerful woman in the Democratic Party. Being Governor of the State of New York is a demotion--Albany is a backwater.

That leaves Sen. Clinton with two options. First, she can take this fight to the convention. There's precedent to back it up; Sen. Kennedy took his fight to the convention, even though he was 700 delegates behind President Carter. She'll be close enough to have a legitimate point as to who is more electable. If something else about Sen. Obama pops up between now and August, she'll be able to make a stronger argument.

IMO, she pursues this strategy if she thinks that this is her last shot.

Her second option is to receive some sort of guarantee from the Party; that if Sen. Obama loses, that the Party will back her completely for the 2012 campaign. The problem with this strategy for the Democratic Party is that Sen. Clinton and the Clinton power base within the party will be running AGAINST Sen. Obama in the general election, at least passively.

The racial breakdown of this election is striking. Sen. Obama is getting 90%+ of the black vote. If Sen. Clinton somehow gets the nomination, then that base probably won't vote for McCain, but will likely stay home. On the flip side, the numbers of Clinton supporters that would vote for McCain instead of Obama are running between 35%-40%, which is a stunning number. It's hard to conceive of a strategy where Sen. Clinton remains on the inside of the tent uninating out rather than outside the tent urinating in.

This election is the most favorable to the Democratic Party in my lifetime. To think that because they couldn't manage the primary process better they may lose it to a lukewarm candidate like Sen. McCain is stunning.