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No League for Old Men

13K views 317 replies 41 participants last post by  Basel 
#1 ·
Basketball has actually never been a young men's game. Regardless of whatever the phosphor dots on your television have told you once upon a time, young players are terrible. In the 80's, everyone went to college for more than one year, including Bird, Magic, and Jordan. Nowadays, the current and upcoming stars either skipped college or went for one year so they entered the league sooner.

That's probably why they're going to leave the league sooner. Kobe Bryant is 33. Michael Jordan won two championships after he turned 33. However, Kobe is finished. He's arguably not even a top five player right now which was also not the case with Jordan who was the best until the moment he retired. However, to put it in perspective, Kobe came into the league at 18 and Jordan at 21.

It's not just the age when entering the league, but that is a huge reason why players aren't lasting as long. The game is getting more competitive and the talent is getting back to where it was in the 80's. Look at Chris Paul, the best PG in the league. He's 26 but he has had knee surgery and lost some form, so after only six years in the league he might not even be enough to influence the outcome of the league. Why? Because you can draft guys like Norris Cole and Ty Lawson late.

I'm not sure Chris Paul stays relevant for three more years. Same goes for Dwight Howard. In their seventh and eighth years respectively. I think with the increasing talent pool nobody is going to be changing the competitive landscape in their eighth or ninth years and more. By that time they're too old, the young guys are too fast.

TL;DR These days I'm looking more at how far into their career guys are. Unless you're a transcendent talent like Wade or James, you aren't a game changer after I'd say your 7th year. Guys the level of Paul and Howard are who I'm talking. Sorry, but I can just draft a Norris Cole or DeAndre Jordan. The league is getting too talented (mean that in a good way).
 
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#4 ·
I think the Clippers could have traded for Howard but they recognized the jump from DeAndre to Howard wasn't as large as the jump with Paul. That tells me just how little Howard influences the competitive landscape compared to a guy like LeBron.

Teams around the league are lining up to acquire Howard to retool for years of contending but I just don't see how with time and new players and player movement he can overcome any contender. I think it's too easy to find a player to defend him and most teams already have that player.
 
#5 ·
Lol, since when is being arguably not a top five guy anymore the same thing as finished? Kobe's still a top 5-7 player in the league and is averaging like 28 a game so far. His prime was never as good as Jordan's so why would his twilight years? Your comparison doesn't make any sense.

I do think that you have an interesting premise though, the league is definitely starting to cater towards younger players and the NBA is going through a resurgence of talent. I just don't know if it's as extreme as you're trying to paint it. Dwight Howard will still be the best center in the world in three years and you can quote me on that.
 
#6 ·
Yesterday's young is today's old. Teams need to recognize this because a guy like Chris Paul is actually entering his twilight not his prime, so it's something to be conscious of if you're the Clippers and acquiring him. A 26 year old today is not a 26 year old in Jordan's time. The "old" players will still win but people need to be correct about what stage of their career they're in or they're going to get burned.
 
#10 ·
It used to be a player's prime years were something like the ages 26-32/33. People would lose a step or two around 33/34 and become the old vets. MJ was the absolute without a doubt best player in the league until about age 38 or so. Karl Malone and Stockton played at a high level until around that age as well.

Now a days it seems like a player's prime years are something like 22-28/29. It seems like you lose a step around 30 or so. You could see it with Kobe and I think you'll see it with Lebron and others as well. And it definitely seems like players enter their prime earlier. It seems Lebron and Dwight entered their prime around 21/22.

I don't agree thought that the difference between Deandre Jordan and Dwight is small. There's still a huge difference. The difference between David Lee and Deandre Jordan is small.

It's just that it seems players hit their peak earlier and burn out quicker. I think it probably has something to do with kids being put in AAU ball and such at earlier stages and playing competitive year long ball much earlier and younger.
 
#11 ·
The history of NBA players in no way supports this argument. If it did it would only be valid if a player was nothing more than an athlete, a brainless zombie that ran and jumped. You might be able to support this argument with players of limited skill, but when you bring up Chris Paul you ignore the fact that his greatest asset is purely cerebral. Is Chris Paul going to get Alzheimers on his 28th birthday and forget how to run a basketball team?
 
#12 ·
Well LeBron, Dwight, and Kobe are exceptions because they came straight out of high school. By the time Jordan entered the league (age wise) these guys had been playing professional basketball for 3-4 years.

Oh, and Jordan was the best player when he was playing for the Wizards in 2001? Because that's a 38 year old MJ. And that MJ was a fringe all star.
 
#14 ·
I am very interested to see how LeBron ages. He seems to have put in the work around his post game and we all saw last year that he's made great strides with his jumper. Once his athleticism fades he will still have the body/strength to be a top power forward in the league, he will just need to polish his repitore.
 
#15 ·
I was thinking about this the other day...Rose, Durant, LeBron and Wade...guys are peaking at a really early age, and maybe wearing down faster too.

If you look at it like the two elevators with athleticism going down and IQ/craftiness going up, they're meeting at a younger age.

I made a thread similar to this awhile back about how years played and mileage overrides age, and you see it. Some of these guys are like 34 which isn't that old and look absolute toast..so coming in early doesnt really extend your career.

But like HKF said, just because you're not top 10 anymore doesnt mean you have to pack it in or you're not relevant. Chris Paul is such a great passer and Dwight is so strong and gifted on the boards they'll have value way past 3 years from now.

Yes, you fall off your peak earlier but with zone D and knowing you'll get calls you can play a long time as long as you're in shape.

Kobe is the oldest 33 ever too. I mean he could play halfway into this decade...and he's a guy that was an all star nearly two decades ago. He can retire today and be more than complete.
 
#16 ·
I was thinking about this the other day...Rose, Durant, LeBron and Wade...guys are peaking at a really early age, and maybe wearing down faster too.

If you look at it like the two elevators with athleticism going down and IQ/craftiness going up, they're meeting at a younger age.

I made a thread similar to this awhile back about how years played and mileage overrides age, and you see it. Some of these guys are like 34 which isn't that old and look absolute toast..so coming in early doesnt really extend your career.

But like HKF said, just because you're not top 10 anymore doesnt mean you have to pack it in or you're not relevant. Chris Paul is such a great passer and Dwight is so strong and gifted on the boards they'll have value way past 3 years from now.

Yes, you fall off your peak earlier but with zone D and knowing you'll get calls you can play a long time as long as you're in shape.

Kobe is the oldest 33 ever too. I mean he could play halfway into this decade...and he's a guy that was an all star nearly two decades ago. He can retire today and be more than complete.
 
#17 ·
Let's look at the dominant players on the last few champions - the guys that the teams were built around and most went on to win Finals MVP:

2011 - Nowitzki 32
2010 - Kobe 30
2009 - Kobe 31
2008 - KG 32 Pierce 30
2007 - Tim Duncan 31
2006 - D-Wade 24 Shaq 34

The fact you have to go back to 2006 to see a Championship team being based around the performance of a player under 30 shows that age isn't diminishing players in the post season. Until that changes I don't see much of an argument for players careers/primes shortening.
 
#18 ·
2011 - Nowitzki 32
2010 - Kobe 30
2009 - Kobe 31
2008 - KG 32 Pierce 30
2007 - Tim Duncan 31
2006 - D-Wade 24 Shaq 34
Is this more a product of teams taking some time to build a championship team around these guys? When Duncan had a championship caliber team around him at a young age, he won championships. Same with Shaquille, and obviously Wade. Kobe winning at an older age is more a product of talent arriving.

I don't think your observation is relevant.
 
#22 ·
Tim Duncan was the best player on the 2007 Spurs and it wasn't even debatable. The Spurs recognized that Eric Snow couldn't guard my 16 year old hipster sister and planned accordingly. Anyone that watched that team recognized that Timmy was the most important Spur.
 
#21 ·
I think Adam brings up an interesting point here. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce show you can still be relevant in your 30's. However, the window for the team to be good seems to be shrinking more and more. I mean the Knicks group was together for like 6 years. You have teams that are together for 3 and players are opting out, wanting to go somewhere else to win. I think that strictly has to do with the fact that the talent level has risen significantly. A team used to be able to tread water, add a piece here and there and be good. After three seasons even with a significant payroll the Lakers are forced to retool again because their roster is just not athletic enough.

Ultimately, this is another reason I have been in favor of unguaranteed contracts. We keep forgetting that there is a reason the average career is 4 years and down.
 
#23 ·
Eric Snow could guard Chauncey Billups, that was the only reason he was on the roster for Cleveland. I don't remember if he even played much in the Finals, but I don't think he played much during the regular season. They knew that they had to beat the Pistons to get out of the East and Snow pretty much shut down Billups by getting up on him. If you dug up the thread you'd see me predicting exactly what happened. Cleveland could not guard quick guards whatsoever that year.
 
#25 · (Edited)
My bad on mixing the Kobe age haha.

I don't know how the age of dominant players on champs isn't relevant to this discussion. If the dominant players on champs is primarily veterans then give me the decrepid vets any day personally.

Some players will perform into their 30s, some won't. It seems pretty much the same as long as I have been following the NBA.
 
#26 ·
Wait, so every superstar is finished except for your heat? Thanks for the information. Right now the league is in chaos since teams haven't settled on their offenses or defenses. This means that a lot of plays are relying on the raw athleticism of the players rather than savvy. Chris Paul is manning a team that he's been on for a week.

As for kobe, either he learns how to finally be a playmaker or will be finished.
 
#27 ·
Wait, so every superstar is finished except for your heat? Thanks for the information. Right now the league is in chaos since teams haven't settled on their offenses or defenses. This means that a lot of plays are relying on the raw athleticism of the players rather than savvy. Chris Paul is manning a team that he's been on for a week.

As for kobe, either he learns how to finally be a playmaker or will be finished.
Seeing as he's been the primary facilitator on five championship teams and seven finalists, I'd say he's doing okay in the facet of his game.
 
#30 ·
I don't want to derail this thread but <5apg is not being a play maker. He'll need to set the table more this year than ever before. He's not good enough anymore to just take over with his shooting.
 
#32 ·
Paul is a year younger than Lebron and what two years younger than Wade. How many players in the NBA are keener mentally or more skilled than he is? He is probably less reliant on athletic ability than any other superstar. You should probably worry about Miami more. Their window is slamming shut as we speak.
 
#36 · (Edited)
LeBron is old. And I truly feel that next year when he's 27, seven years completed in the league, people should be calling Paul an old player as well.

And I've consistently said that transcendent players, talking greatest ever players, affect the landscape in spite of old age. I did however say that Paul isn't one of those players. So LeBron and the Heat will be fine but not Paul.

People are misinterpreting the thread title to be a slight against old players. I said in the first sentence that young players don't win anything. Old players will still win, but the old players of today are going to be late 20's. The days of 30 year olds being superstars is over. And of course I mean "superstars" in the overused generic sense. Not the Kobe, Bird, and LeBron class. Those guys will hang on a little longer like Kobe is, but be declining.
 
#33 ·
I see your point. You're arguing verbiage. What if young ment developing, prime meant peak and veteran mends past his prime but knows the game well enough to help you win.
 
#38 ·
Hilarious how when people get mad at you they make pathetic claims of bias.

Yes, I think LeBron is a top 10 player all time and it takes me being a Heat fan to see it.

You salty because I think Paul is on the downhill side of his career? He plays the most generic position in basketball. He can shoot and pass. There are plenty of guys who can do that and they rebound, block shots, and shut down the opposing team. Every year there's a new Darren Collison, Ty Lawson, or Norris Cole available into the 2nd round of the draft. The talent nowadays is too deep for guys to be superstars into their 30's. Sorry that this pisses you off but don't intentionally misinterpret an easy concept just because you don't like what it means about your favorite player.

People didn't like the Kobe example but there's also Vince Carter and T-Mac as well. Players today are older a lot sooner than players in the past.
 
#43 ·
So far we have yet to see a young team win a title built around youth. So there's that. The Heat came close last year. But in the end lost to a much more experienced team. So I don't know that I agree with the premise of this thread.

When the Heat finally do win a title(if they do), they're going to look a lot closer to the normal age we get for champions, and Wade probably will win the finals MVP for the first one, and he'd be what...like 30/31? Right in range of previous winners.

It still takes time to learn how to win. And I don't think it's a given that the Thunder make it out of the West for that reason. Experience wise they're behind the Lakers/Mavs/Spurs still.
 
#45 ·
I was about to post almost this same thing. The last time a "young" team won a championship was the '91 Bulls, but that team had already been through the fire in the playoffs the three prior seasons.
 
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