roux2dope

Wisconsin owns crean

Nimreitz

I wonder where HoosierDaddy is from back in the BBB.net day? Now that Wisconsin hasn't lost to IU in 6 years it would be fun to bring back some of those arguments.

Nimreitz

It's been an interesting season so far. I think the two most interesting storylines are 1) Ryan Evans and 2) The Point Guard position.

Because it's my thread I'll use some kenpom stats. Here is Ryan Evans in 2012/2013




And 2011/2012




This is a big problem for the team. Evans takes a shot on 26% of the possessions in which he is on the floor, by far the most on the team, however he is the second worst effective shooter on the team with an eFG% of 42.9%. 42.9% is awful. eFG% is just like FG%, except it elevates three point shooting because of the extra point. For example, if you make 40% of your three point shots, it is essentially the same as making 60% of your 2 point shots because of the extra points. 4/10 from three point range is 12 points per shot, same as 6/10 from 2 point range. I don't think much more has to be said about Evans, but just to hammer the point home, in addition to poor shooting, he is also shooting 39% from the FT line and has taken many more FTs than anyone else on the team. Not a good recipe. If he only had a 101 ORtg like last year instead of his 93 the team would be in much better shape.

The second issue is the point guard position, which was thrown into disarray in the preseason when Josh Gasser blew out his knee and forced Trae Jackson and George Marshall to battle for the starting spot.

Traevon Jackson



George Marshall



Marshall started the year as starter, but Jackson has taken the spot since early in the non-conference season. To say that this annoys me would be putting it mildly. Wisconsin turns the ball over the fewest of any team in the country, and Marshall's 15% T.O. rate is about team average; Jackson however turns it over 24% of the time, which is totally unacceptable and about 2-4 extra turnovers per game-ish. The next factor is the shooting, and while they each shoot below 40% from the floor, Marshall is a good 3 point shooter, which puts his eFG% at 56.5% as opposed to Jackson's 38.9%. So not only does Jackson turn the ball over more, he also shoots far worse. Does his defense make up for it? He does get a steal on 2% more possessions and rebound slightly better, but no where near enough to make up for his deficiencies. It boggles my mind that Marshall is the backup, but for now we deal with Bo's odd decision.

Nimreitz

Jackson + Evans

4/21, 5 TOs, 31 mpg (avg between them). Wisconsin loses by 2.

I'm boycotting Wisconsin basketball for the rest of the year if Traevon Jackson gets the start on Saturday. I don't want to be a fan of that team.

Prince

Happy days Nim! Evans needs to be benched though.

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Knick Killer

Did my Indiana Hoosiers a big favor today by knocking off Michigan. What a ****ing great game. Wisconsin not being in the Top 25 is a crime.


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Prince

Of course we do have 7 losses. We were at #31 in the last AP poll, so I anticipate that a spot in the top #25 isn't far off.

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Geaux Tigers

Im going to have my eye on this Badger team come tourney time.

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"Louisiana has a heritage of great players that play their high school football within the boundaries of Louisiana."

"As soon as we know exactly who we are playing and what date we will be playing on, the schedule will become more finite."

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- Les Miles

roux2dope

Wisconsin is always a good bet to advance in the tourney, bo ryan thrives come tourney time

I am so pissed about missing this game, i had no idea it was on this morning and i probably missed one of the best college games you will see all year

Mrs. Thang

The game wasn't that great, just had a crazy finish. Wisconsin has some unlocked upside if they cut Evans minutes in favor of Sam Dekker, but I worry about them in the tournament (like every year) when they get away from the Big 10 officiating that allows you to get away with just about anything so long as you don't jump (where you can only get away with *almost* anything) and aren't playing in Assembly Hall.

Nimreitz

Bo Ryan's problem in the tourney isn't any of that, it's simply that Wisconsin goes ridiculously cold (they are partially to blame for being so perimeter oriented) or their opponent shoots the lights out. When you limit possessions, 3s mean even more. I mean, look at these exits

2011: 7 points to Butler (shot 30%)
2010: 18 points to Cornell (they made everything)
2009: 11 points to Xavier (shot 28%)
2008: 17 points to Davidson (**** Curry)
2007: 6 points to UNLV (UNLV 10/20 from 3--Wisconsin 5/21)

5 years in a row to mid majors. It's one thing if they get knocked out by better teams, but by and large Wisconsin beats the major conference teams they face in the Tournament. For example in 2008, Bo Ryan's best team, they demolished that Michael Beasley K-State team before getting run out of the building by Davidson.


Anyway, I absolutely despise this team and I just know that it will be the one Final Four team that Bo gets. Just to drive me crazy.

Nimreitz

With games remaining at home against Nebraska and Purdue, and at Penn State (in addition to @MSU), it seems likely that Wisconsin will finish the season 3-1 for a final Big Ten record of 13-5. Ohio State already have 5 losses, which means Wisconsin is all but assured of a top 4 place again, with what I would say is Bo Ryan's worst team ever with the exception of 2006 (my god damn senior year) when Marcus Landry and Greg Steimsma both were declared academically ineligible for the second semester. The man is a ****ing magician and for all intents and purposes the team can only get better next year as Evans leaves and his minutes are replaced by Sam Dekker. Berggren's departure seemed like a big thing, but Frank Kaminsky has become the next center in Bo Ryan's big 3 point shooting white guy assembly line. Oddly, Bo didn't take one of those in the 2013 class, getting in too late on Germantown's Luke Fischer who is going to Indiana. I'm not saying Bo would have got him, but I think he would have had the inside track; with that said, I didn't think Fischer was any good either, so I supported his decision to not recruit the kid. I'm not sure what Traevon Jackson's role will be next year, and unfortunately I think he'll be the starting point guard in a rotation like this:

PG: Traevon Jackson, George Marshall
SG: Ben Brust
Guard: Josh Gasser, Zac Showalter
Forward: Sam Dekker
C: Frank Kaminsky

These are the returning players. Showalter is a walk on although I think he can work himself into big minutes kind of like a Clayton Hanson. His dad played for Bo at Platteville and now coaches the nationally ranked Germantown basketball HS program of which Showalter came last year. But anyway you slice it, depth is a PROBLEM. We only use 8 this year and 3 graduate. So let's take a look at the recruits coming in.

PG Bronson Koenig

**** the rankings, this is the best senior in the state of Wisconsin and it kind of isn't close. 3 stars and offers from Duke and UNC, and not just offers, Roy was flying his plane out to see him. He put the press on Bronson. Unfortunately he had a bad injury and committed to Wisconsin, which will never help your recruiting stars; he already had an uphill struggle as far as those were concerned because he's more of a distributor than a scorer. Hard working and good defender too. Quite frankly, this is the kind of unique and smart freshman who can get minutes under Bo, but unfortunately he has 2 guys in front of him at the PG spot who have been in the system for 2 years. Jackson can play off the ball, but Marshall can't, so I don't think Bronson will get many minutes even if he deserves them.

PF Nigel Hayes

This is the best player in the class according to the recruiting experts. Had an offer from Ohio State, but you always wonder when an Ohio kid picks Wisconsin over Ohio State whether that offer was revoked and that's the real reason he picked UW. Anyway, Nigel Hayes seems like the ideal PF for Wisconsin. He's a solid defender and rebounder with a good jumpshot, but a weak post game. Who cares, we never post up anyway we just launch 3s. Seems like a rich man's Ryan Evans to me and he should get a lot of minutes in the front court next year if he is any good because truth be told, Dekker is not a PF and should not be forced to guard post players.

PF Vitto Brown

Seems like a poor man's Nigel Hayes, which I guess is to say that he is a lot like Ryan Evans. Good rebounder, but not much of a shooter. Could make a big impact or a small impact during his 4 years. What's interesting is that Bo did not take a big white 3 point shooting center in this class and instead took Brown and Hayes, which is unusual. Anyway, there are minutes for him next year if he works hard and plays well, but I think he could just as easily play 4 minutes per game.

SG Riley Dearring

The last two recruits are off guards, but I want to be very clear that Wisconsin ****ed up by not offering Matt Thomas out of Onalaska, WI until too late. He's going to Iowa State and is Brust-esque. Dearring, by contrast is not a great shooter, but just seems like a classic Bo player who is very smart and makes good decisions. Not a ball handler or shooter, so it's doubtful that he'll play much of a role next year with 6 guards in front of him.

SG Jordan Hill (post grad)

No idea what to expect from him at all to be totally honest, but much like Dearring he's got an uphill fight for PT next year because of all the returning guards.

Nimreitz

Waiting to see what happens against Ohio State before making a post...

Knick Killer

Don't think Wisconsin can win a national title this year or anything, but you guys will definitely make some noise. That's a tough team.


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roux2dope

yup