Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? - Page 96 - Basketball Forum : Professional and College Basketball Forums

BingGrad · 12-13-2012, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhett1

More or less, yes. Full members own a full share of their league. A league could dissolve around them or they could not be invited to a pseudo-merger (as America East would have done to UNC-Wilmington if it swallowed the CAA in 2001) but they really can't be kicked out by their lonesome.

Basically, because a full-member owns a share of a league, to boot them, you'd have to pay them off or you'd be sued for damages. Since these leagues are basically structured to last forever (jokes aside) you'd be able to project out damages over a tremendous timeline. It would mostly be tied to media rights, but the process would be dragged out with complicated arguments about the prestige hit to the school, increased travel expenses as an independent (regardless of interest from new conferences, that's for the old conference to show in order to mitigate), projections about lost alumni or sponsor donations, etc., etc.

The legal process would be long and tremendously expensive. It would cost millions, and the only thing the conference could hope to realistically gain is a break in how much the damages are worth, because it would be almost impossible to deny that significant damages exist. From a major conference, the booted school would likely look for ten-digits. The conference would be lucky to get out for barely over nine.

The reason we haven't seen a full member booted from a major D-I conference is because, under our system, we're talking about a single time expense we've never seen in American sports other than the sale of an NFL or MLB team.

Now the A-10 is on a much lower level and the damages would be significantly lower, but still on a scale impossible for that league to deal with. Remember, they voted on the future of St. Bonaventure several years ago due to their recruiting scandal (accepting a JuCo transfer with a "certificate in welding" as a Associate Degree equivalent, etc.). This was in a down time for the Bonnies, and a prime-time for the A-10 to cut the "dead weight" everyone talks about them cutting. The reason the Bonnies got away with only league sanctions is because the A-10 attorneys told them something similar to what I'm telling you now.

Now, all of this said, I don't think kicking a full-member out of a league is something that will 100% never happen. I think the only circumstance it could happen under, however, is if the league can prove that the school was involved in a public scandal so egregious that the very presence of that school in their league would actually destroy the league's commercial value to the point where none of the sought financial damages would actually exist in a future where the offending school remains in the league. That's the only scenario I can think of where the league gets out "cheap" (the legal fees would still be astronomical). I can't even fathom what that scandal would have to be. It just seems so impossible.

Please keep strawman arguments and other rebuttals based on logical fallacies to yourselves. I think most people on the board already understood that this is the end result of this type of league action, even if they've never spelled it out before. I don't have the energy to go on ad infinitum about this.

Legal arguments are interesting to speculate on, but two parties can agree to just about anything and most legal disputes end up as settlements. Once the football super-conferences emerge it won't be long before we have our first case of the Big Twelve wishing they could part ways with Iowa State or the Pac-16 wishing they could swap out Oregon State. While those schools can't be kicked out, they certainly can be bought out -- and I'll be shocked if those kinds of things don't eventually happen.

Rhett1 · 12-13-2012, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BingGrad

Legal arguments are interesting to speculate on, but two parties can agree to just about anything and most legal disputes end up as settlements. Once the football super-conferences emerge it won't be long before we have our first case of the Big Twelve wishing they could part ways with Iowa State or the Pac-16 wishing they could swap out Oregon State. While those schools can't be kicked out, they certainly can be bought out -- and I'll be shocked if those kinds of things don't eventually happen.

OK. Speculate on the cost of the buyout. It has to be more than several years of media rights fees (projected out well over a decade, perhaps much further), compensate the school for the loss of prestige, the loss of projected donor revenue, increased cost of travel/difficulty in scheduling as an independent or as a member on a far lesser conference, etc., etc. Oh, and the bulk of this money will likely be paid upfront.

So much of the collegiate game (academic as well as athletic) is a game of perception. Who do we 'believe' to be the best institution for X. The amount of damage a public singling out of unworthiness like this could deal is devastating. Many schools may not have a price.

We all understand that the cost of buying a school out of a major conference is going to be astronomical, right? As in, a peaceable, non-legal buyout would likely cost well over a billion dollars. I'm dealing with people who understand that while many may have a price, the money has to come from somewhere, right? That other institutions will have to agree to kick out an otherwise like-minded, fairly regional university at the cost of many millions of dollars each? That sometimes the cost-benefit analyses just don't work out, right?

This didn't even get into the political backlash (you just named two really large public universities). An attempt to boot an Oregon State or Iowa State forcibly could start effecting other, non-college entities, in unforeseen ways. Congressmen from Oregon or Iowa would cross party lines to screw with money bound for the other states that have public schools in that conference.

We all get that this game is complicated, right? Let's think before we hit submit in the future.

Again, strawmen and logical fallacies will be ignored. I'm waiting for them.

Rhett1 · 12-13-2012, 10:51 AM

Actually, I've explained this deeply enough. I'm not responding to further debate on this tangent to the topic at hand. If you don't understand, can't wrap your mind about deeper factors than "but they suck at basketball they should be kicked out", don't understand why this has never happened and will continue to not happen, then I'm sorry. There's nothing else I can do for you. You'll make pithy responses, and you'll be wrong, and I'll write a long response as to why your wrong, and I'll get another pithy response. Everything has already been said.

mainejeff · 12-13-2012, 12:16 PM

Good stuff here...........

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlan...gnment-57.html

Lots of fans chewing their fingernails at certain A-10 schools.........this is what we have been waiting for!!!! CONFERENCE EXPLOSIONS..........YES!!!!!!!!!

Will be interesting to see how this affects America East..........this is gonna affect everyone excluding the Ivy.

**UVM Hoop Cat** · 12-13-2012, 12:31 PM

Another good conference realignment thread here:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/57405...page__st__1850

TerrierNation · 12-13-2012, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mainejeff

Good stuff here...........

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlan...gnment-57.html

Lots of fans chewing their fingernails at certain A-10 schools.........this is what we have been waiting for!!!! CONFERENCE EXPLOSIONS..........YES!!!!!!!!!

Will be interesting to see how this affects America East..........this is gonna affect everyone excluding the Ivy.

How do you think this will play out for AE schools?

**El Shaqtus** · 12-13-2012, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TerrierNation

How do you think this will play out for AE schools?

I could see the A-10 (or whatever number it holds after this is done) looking at an AE school or two. Really depends on how many teams the BE7 take with them. If it's 5, AE fans better not get too attached to their membership.

As a Saint Louis fan, this is going to be very difficult to keep up with. Vermont to A-10?

mainejeff · 12-13-2012, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TerrierNation

How do you think this will play out for AE schools?

Good question.

I think that one of the big keys will be if the CAA loses George Mason to the A-10. If they do, that really splits the CAA in half.........NU, Hofstra, Drexel, Delaware and Towson on one side..........JMU, W&M, UNCW and C of C on the other side. Then of course, you have football added to the mix with Delaware, Towson, JMU and W&M. There are so many variables right now.........no one can say for certainty until other moves have been announced. With there being talk of UMass dropping back down to FCS football.......that would make them hoops centric again. If the A-10 was decimated (up to 5 teams leaving).........I can honestly see URI as an AE expansion candidate. Just too much jumble to make an informed prediction right now.

BingGrad · 12-13-2012, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhett1

OK. Speculate on the cost of the buyout. It has to be more than several years of media rights fees (projected out well over a decade, perhaps much further), compensate the school for the loss of prestige, the loss of projected donor revenue, increased cost of travel/difficulty in scheduling as an independent or as a member on a far lesser conference, etc., etc. Oh, and the bulk of this money will likely be paid upfront.

So much of the collegiate game (academic as well as athletic) is a game of perception. Who do we 'believe' to be the best institution for X. The amount of damage a public singling out of unworthiness like this could deal is devastating. Many schools may not have a price.

We all understand that the cost of buying a school out of a major conference is going to be astronomical, right? As in, a peaceable, non-legal buyout would likely cost well over a billion dollars. I'm dealing with people who understand that while many may have a price, the money has to come from somewhere, right? That other institutions will have to agree to kick out an otherwise like-minded, fairly regional university at the cost of many millions of dollars each? That sometimes the cost-benefit analyses just don't work out, right?

This didn't even get into the political backlash (you just named two really large public universities). An attempt to boot an Oregon State or Iowa State forcibly could start effecting other, non-college entities, in unforeseen ways. Congressmen from Oregon or Iowa would cross party lines to screw with money bound for the other states that have public schools in that conference.

We all get that this game is complicated, right? Let's think before we hit submit in the future.

Again, strawmen and logical fallacies will be ignored. I'm waiting for them.

Rhett, I'm not disagreeing with you at all. But "kickouts" are the next logical step -- even though they may be 10 years down the line. I put "kickouts" in quotes because they will be negotiated legal agreements rather than conferences just saying "your hoops team sucks so you're out". Or it could come in a different form -- a conference mandate that schools must share ticket revenue and meet a 75,000 fan per game minimum -- if you can get enough schools to agree to it then you can cause those that can't keep up to negotiate an exit. You're apparently a lawyer? Then surely you're familiar with leverage.

Yes, they will be expensive -- but ultimately the greedy folks in charge are not going to want to share with the have nots for much longer.

People have a way of saying things can't possibly happen. And then they do. You can scroll back in this thread and see people saying the idea that Maryland would ever move to the Big Ten was craziness.

edit -- actually, the "He-- will freeze over before Maryland moves to the Big Ten" was in this thread OT Possible Big Ten Expansion

usslider · 12-13-2012, 01:30 PM

Big East split is a done deal. The Catholic 7 are out.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...7/?sf7855890=1

Edit: "Done deal" is probably too strong. But the decision has been made.

mainejeff · 12-13-2012, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by usslider

Big East split is a done deal. The Catholic 7 are out.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...7/?sf7855890=1

Edit: "Done deal" is probably too strong. But the decision has been made.

Good!

The sooner this is over......the better. Hopefully this gets the B1G, SEC, PAC-12, Big 12 and ACC to complete their moves as well...........so we can get back to our regularly scheduled program.

mainejeff · 12-13-2012, 05:50 PM

Looks like Xavier and Butler are on board.......with 1 or 3 more to follow.......

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/183377221.html

**El Shaqtus** · 12-13-2012, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mainejeff

Looks like Xavier and Butler are on board.......with 1 or 3 more to follow.......

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/183377221.html

Like I told one of your fine fans, I think the AE will benefit from this shakeup.

BU_Hoops · 12-13-2012, 07:43 PM

Could BU get back into the A-10 discussion again if this happens????

**El Shaqtus** · 12-13-2012, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BU_Hoops

Could BU get back into the A-10 discussion again if this happens????

Don't see why not. Most of the nation is in play right now.

12-13-2012, 10:51 AM	#1428 (permalink)
Rhett1 Benchwarmer Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Maryland via New Hampshire Age: 30 Posts: 141 Rep Power: 1405	Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? Actually, I've explained this deeply enough. I'm not responding to further debate on this tangent to the topic at hand. If you don't understand, can't wrap your mind about deeper factors than "but they suck at basketball they should be kicked out", don't understand why this has never happened and will continue to not happen, then I'm sorry. There's nothing else I can do for you. You'll make pithy responses, and you'll be wrong, and I'll write a long response as to why your wrong, and I'll get another pithy response. Everything has already been said.

12-13-2012, 12:16 PM	#1429 (permalink)
mainejeff All-Star Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: San Diego Posts: 7,213 Rep Power: 37820	Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? Good stuff here........... http://www.basketballforum.com/atlan...gnment-57.html Lots of fans chewing their fingernails at certain A-10 schools.........this is what we have been waiting for!!!! CONFERENCE EXPLOSIONS..........YES!!!!!!!!! Will be interesting to see how this affects America East..........this is gonna affect everyone excluding the Ivy.

12-13-2012, 12:31 PM	#1430 (permalink)
UVM Hoop Cat -PREMIUM MEMBER- Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Boston Posts: 17,439 Rep Power: 62496	Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? Another good conference realignment thread here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/57405...page__st__1850 __________________ "Let's win this game for all the small schools that never had a chance to get here" - Hoosiers, & UVM mens basketball NCAA's 2005

12-13-2012, 01:30 PM	#1435 (permalink)
usslider Veteran Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 2,243 Rep Power: 8124	Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? Big East split is a done deal. The Catholic 7 are out. http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...7/?sf7855890=1 Edit: "Done deal" is probably too strong. But the decision has been made. __________________ ~v^v~GO TERRIERS~v^v~ BU Hoops Blog

12-13-2012, 05:50 PM	#1437 (permalink)
mainejeff All-Star Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: San Diego Posts: 7,213 Rep Power: 37820	Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? Looks like Xavier and Butler are on board.......with 1 or 3 more to follow....... http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/183377221.html

12-13-2012, 07:43 PM	#1439 (permalink)
BU_Hoops Rookie Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 80 Rep Power: 1	Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming? Could BU get back into the A-10 discussion again if this happens????

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