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Old 01-17-2013, 07:06 AM   #1471 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

If VCU isn't selected (slim possibility now IMO) then the CAA will be torn apart. George Mason........along with possibly Drexel and Northeastern could flee to the A-10. W&M would go to the Patriot or Southern. Delaware and Towson to AE.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:00 AM   #1472 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

Delaware and URI would be a big boost for AE athletics. UMass would be nice, too. All state schools with good academics and historic ties to many of the conference teams already. About as likely as sunny and 80 degrees in Burlington tomorrow.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:15 AM   #1473 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

If the A-10 loses:

-VCU, Butler, Xavier to C-7
-St. Louis to C-7 or MVC

that leaves:

-Duquesne
-George Washington
-UMass
-St. Bonaventure
-Rhode Island
-St. Joseph's
-Dayton
-Fordham
-LaSalle
-Richmond

Even if you subtract out UMass (say they go to leftover BE), that's a better league than the CAA. I think George Mason would be interested, I think Northeastern would be interested, I think Drexel would be interested, I think Delaware would be interested, etc. It's fairly geographically contained (western swing to Dayton/Duquesne, southern swing to GW/Richmond/Mason?), otherwise it's in the Northeast. If I'm Fordham or Richmond, that's better than the PL. If I'm a CAA school, it beats traveling to a bad UNCW. If I'm URI, it beats the heck out of the AE.

I don't see this trickling down to the AE at all, unless it's more teams leaving. The Rump A-10 will still be > CAA/PL/AE.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:30 AM   #1474 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

I am with ccd494 here. I just dont see A-10 decimating, even after losing 3-5 members. A-10 will still have lot of quality programs left that others like GMU, Davidson, Drexel would want to join. CAA will pick up Elon. W&M will not move to PL, they have been getting invites and declining for years. URI to AE just doesnt make any sense to me and none of the old AE schools are going to come back from CAA ($1m exit fee and admission of mistake; besides they are doing well now). AE better add Bryant before they go to MAAC or PL.

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Old 01-17-2013, 08:37 AM   #1475 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

Yep- that core of that left-over A10 is still a very solid group and honestly would be attractive to most if not all mid-majors in the north east- it also looks like it would be pretty competitive top to bottom but no clearly dominant schools.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:41 AM   #1476 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

A-10 wont be a 4 bid league anymore, but still be a 2 bid conference imo. And CAA will never be more than 1 bid again.. now or after more alignments.
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Old 01-17-2013, 08:58 AM   #1477 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ccd494 View Post
If the A-10 loses:

-VCU, Butler, Xavier to C-7
-St. Louis to C-7 or MVC

that leaves:

-Duquesne
-George Washington
-UMass
-St. Bonaventure
-Rhode Island
-St. Joseph's
-Dayton
-Fordham
-LaSalle
-Richmond

Even if you subtract out UMass (say they go to leftover BE), that's a better league than the CAA. I think George Mason would be interested, I think Northeastern would be interested, I think Drexel would be interested, I think Delaware would be interested, etc. It's fairly geographically contained (western swing to Dayton/Duquesne, southern swing to GW/Richmond/Mason?), otherwise it's in the Northeast. If I'm Fordham or Richmond, that's better than the PL. If I'm a CAA school, it beats traveling to a bad UNCW. If I'm URI, it beats the heck out of the AE.

I don't see this trickling down to the AE at all, unless it's more teams leaving. The Rump A-10 will still be > CAA/PL/AE.
Not that it really changes much of what you wrote, but everything I have read, seen & been told is that Dayton would be part of the C-7 additions.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:08 AM   #1478 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

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Originally Posted by iBOsbu View Post
I am with ccd494 here. I just dont see A-10 decimating, even after losing 3-5 members. A-10 will still have lot of quality programs left that others like GMU, Davidson, Drexel would want to join. CAA will pick up Elon. W&M will not move to PL, they have been getting invites and declining for years. URI to AE just doesnt make any sense to me and none of the old AE schools are going to come back from CAA ($1m exit fee and admission of mistake; besides they are doing well now). AE better add Bryant before they go to MAAC or PL.
What if the A-10 loses 6?

Xavier
Butler
VCU
Dayton
St. Louis
UMass

Then where does that leave it?

A-10:

URI
Fordham
St. Bonaventure
St. Joes
LaSalle
Duquesne
GW
Richmond

CAA:

Northeastern
Hofstra
Drexel
Delaware
Towson
GMU
JMU
W&M
UNCW
C of C
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:18 AM   #1479 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

I threw it out there as a possibility, but I still don't think an 8-team A10 conference is all that poachable for the Patriot League and the CAA and certainly not the AE. URI would not join the AE.

And the CAA could not absorb all of the A10...they may be able to wrestle Richmond and GW and VCU back but they wouldn't be able to take everyone on. It would simply be too large of a conference.

Then, I think the remaining 6-8 schools in the A10 simply poach Fairfield and Siena and call it a day. If they need a third school, they could try for a PL or CAA team like Drexel, BU, NU, etc. Siena and Fairfield are not all that happy in the MAAC and are very 'A10' if you think about it. There's really not much of a plausible scenario in which the A10 does not survive.

I also disagree about VCU. They are a candidate to move to the C7 league, but they aren't a likely add at this point. I still put my money on the other 5 schools.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:18 AM   #1480 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mainejeff View Post
A-10:

URI
Fordham
St. Bonaventure
St. Joes
LaSalle
Duquesne
GW
Richmond

CAA:

Northeastern
Hofstra
Drexel
Delaware
Towson
GMU
JMU
W&M
UNCW
C of C
There is a really good chance that JMU is gone under these scenarios as well...provided they haven't changed their mind about the jump to FBS football.

Not a whole lot of difference either way...but I hate the trip to Olean, NY and love Wilmington, NC so I would lean towards the CAA.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:20 AM   #1481 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

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Originally Posted by mainejeff View Post
What if the A-10 loses 6?

Xavier
Butler
VCU
Dayton
St. Louis
UMass

Then where does that leave it?

A-10:

URI
Fordham
St. Bonaventure
St. Joes
LaSalle
Duquesne
GW
Richmond

CAA:

Northeastern
Hofstra
Drexel
Delaware
Towson
GMU
JMU
W&M
UNCW
C of C
Not sure.. but if A-10 is left with 8 members, I assume they will take Davidson, one/two from MAAC (Fairfield or Sienna), one/two from CAA (from GMU, Drexel, NU even CofC), and become a 12 member conference. Not the best, but surely 2nd best basketball only conference after Catholic conference.

I wonder if GW would let GMU get in A-10.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:27 AM   #1482 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

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Not sure.. but if A-10 is left with 8 members, I assume they will take Davidson, one/two from MAAC (Fairfield or Sienna), one/two from CAA (from GMU, Drexel, NU even CofC), and become a 12 member conference. Not the best, but surely 2nd best basketball only conference after Catholic conference.

I wonder if GW would let GMU get in A-10.
Davidson will go to the CAA before the A-10.........not even close.

Does URI REALLY want to be part of a league with Siena, Fairfield, LaSalle, St. Bonaventure, Fordham, Duquesne.....???? Are those teams going to sell out the Ryan Center? Are they competitive in broad based Olympic Sports programs that most mid-sized Northeast publics sponsor? Maybe Richmond, GW and St. Joes remain attractive to URI.........but at that point it seems A LOT less Iikely that URI stands pat . Basically, URI stays in the A-10 until UMass bolts.......and then all bets are off.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:30 AM   #1483 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ccd494 View Post
If the A-10 loses:

-VCU, Butler, Xavier to C-7
-St. Louis to C-7 or MVC

that leaves:

-Duquesne
-George Washington
-UMass
-St. Bonaventure
-Rhode Island
-St. Joseph's
-Dayton
-Fordham
-LaSalle
-Richmond

Even if you subtract out UMass (say they go to leftover BE), that's a better league than the CAA. I think George Mason would be interested, I think Northeastern would be interested, I think Drexel would be interested, I think Delaware would be interested, etc. It's fairly geographically contained (western swing to Dayton/Duquesne, southern swing to GW/Richmond/Mason?), otherwise it's in the Northeast. If I'm Fordham or Richmond, that's better than the PL. If I'm a CAA school, it beats traveling to a bad UNCW. If I'm URI, it beats the heck out of the AE.

I don't see this trickling down to the AE at all, unless it's more teams leaving. The Rump A-10 will still be > CAA/PL/AE.
UMass is gone to the MAC for football, and Dayton is probably going to C7 along with Creighton (last spot is SLU or VCU). What's left is not very good. St. Joe's becomes the favorite.
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Old 01-17-2013, 09:39 AM   #1484 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

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Originally Posted by mainejeff View Post
Davidson will go to the CAA before the A-10.........not even close.

Does URI REALLY want to be part of a league with Siena, Fairfield, LaSalle, St. Bonaventure, Fordham, Duquesne.....???? Are those teams going to sell out the Ryan Center? Are they competitive in broad based Olympic Sports programs that most mid-sized Northeast publics sponsor? Maybe Richmond, GW and St. Joes remain attractive to URI.........but at that point it seems A LOT less Iikely that URI stands pat . Basically, URI stays in the A-10 until UMass bolts.......and then all bets are off.
Surely, with BU gone to PL, UVM, SBU, Albany arent going to help sell out Ryan center either. IF URI really want to leave A-10, I see them joining CAA where their football is already part of, before considering AE.
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Old 01-17-2013, 10:28 AM   #1485 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Expansion: Explosion Coming?

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Surely, with BU gone to PL, UVM, SBU, Albany arent going to help sell out Ryan center either. IF URI really want to leave A-10, I see them joining CAA where their football is already part of, before considering AE.
Would the CAA want them as an all-sport member? Plus, URI is a very expense-conscious school with major budget constraints...with the A-10, at least they were getting some TV contract money that they could count on to help offset some costs. That won't be the case in the CAA as it stands right now. In the CAA, they would be traveling to the Carolinas with all their olympic sports...in the AEast, they can bus to everything, saving a pretty good amount of money.
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