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"He'll be an All-Star" syndrome
I bet there are 100 guys in the NBA right now that people think will become all-stars. That is laughable. Not everybody that has great athletic ability will develop some shooting ability and basketball IQ! In fact, about 80% will not even become starters. The time frame for improvement is short. There are not many examples of guys shining after 3 years in the league. Of the few that do rise to the occasion, only a couple will be all-star calibre. What happens is that the new draftees become the rave and the old hopefuls get knocked aside and end up at the end of the bench in the 11th and 12th spots and don't get much of a chance to show what they've got. Before long they are in Europe or in a semi-pro league in some backwater of the globe.
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