Muddy Waters

Top-100 Recruit Likes Flyers (Doug Harris, Dayton Daily News - June 25, 2009)

(Article about Brandon Spearman)


Flyers Going After Guards (Doug Harris, Dayton Daily News - June 27, 2009)

(Article about Jalen Steele, Jesse Berry, Brandon Spearman, and Cameron Wright)


Flyers aim for a great class (Doug Harris, Dayton Daily News - June 28, 2009)

(Article about Jesse Berry, Jalen Steele, and Brandon Spearman)


Dayton Flyers 2009-10 Depth Chart with 2008-09 Scoring (5 Seniors):

PG: London Warren (6-0 Sr./ 4.1 PPG), Rob Lowery (6-2 Sr./ 7.5 PPG)
SG: Marcus Johnson (6-3 Sr./ 11.8 PPG), Mickey Perry (6-2 Sr./ 4.6 PPG), Paul Williams (6-4 Soph./ 2.2 PPG)
SF: Chris Wright (6-8 Jr./ 13.3 PPG), Chris Johnson (6-5 Soph./ 6.3 PPG), Luke Fabrizius (6-9 Soph./ 4.3 PPG)
PF: Devin Searcy (6-10 Jr./ 2.8 PPG), Josh Benson (6-10 Fr./ DNP)
C: Kurt Huelsman (6-10 Sr./ 3.6 PPG), Matt Kavanaugh (6-10 Fr./ DNP)

Brian Gregory has 6 scholarships available for the 2010 Class (the 5 present seniors plus Stephen Thomas’ scholarship) and the following wish list:

1 point guard
1 shooting guard
2 combo guards
1 combo forward
Adreian Payne

The point guard scholarship went to Juwan Staten.

At the present time, Brandon Spearman and Jalen Steele are the front-runners for the shooting guard scholarship.

Both combo guard scholarships have now been awarded, the first going to Drake transfer Josh Parker, who will be a junior in 2010-11 (Josh Parker video) and the second to Jesse Berry.

The combo forward scholarship went to Ralph Hill, who appears to be a slightly bigger version of multi-skilled, athletic Chris Johnson. Brian Gregory was in early on both Ralph Hill and Chris Johnson, and both flew under the national radar (i.e. head coaches of BCS-conference schools and the basketball recruiting websites) before committing to Dayton. As you recall, Chris Johnson was named to the Atlantic 10 All-Rookie team in March 2009, which was quite an accomplishment for a reserve SF playing behind Chris Wright. At 6’-5” Chris Johnson is quite capable of playing the SG position against opponents’ taller SGs. Brian Gregory is very keen to stock his roster with players who can play 2 positions – “interchangeable parts” as he calls them – and is doing a great job of so.

The sixth and final scholarship available for 2010 is being held for PF/C Adreian Payne, who may or may not commit to Dayton. As many of you know already, Payne is still very raw, but has incredible upside potential. If Payne commits elsewhere, Brian Gregory may offer it to another 2010 prospect or hold the scholarship for a 2011 prospect.

PF # 2 Adreian Payne (Rivals.com)

PF # 7 Adreian Payne (ESPN / Scouts Inc.)

C # 4 Adreian Payne (Scout.com)


It is relevant to ask how much UD’s recruiting has improved since Brian Gregory was named head coach of the Dayton Flyers.

This question is best answered by looking at the last two recruiting classes that were signed by Oliver Purnell before he left for Clemson:

University of Dayton Prospects: HS Class of 2002 (Scout.com)

University of Dayton Prospects: HS Class of 2003 (Scout.com)


If Chris Wright has a monster season in 2009-10 (i.e. 18 PPG, 8 RPG, 50% FGs, and 40% from 3-point range) he may well forego his senior year at UD and head to the NBA a year early as a first-round draft pick. However, given the very strong field of players who will likely be in the 2010 NBA Draft, coupled with Derrick Brown's disappointing # 40 selection in the 2009 NBA Draft, I consider it far more likely that Wright will play his senior year at UD.

If Wright does leave early for the NBA, the Flyers will still have junior Chris Johnson, junior Luke Fabrizius, and freshman Ralph Hill available to man the 3-spot in 2010-11. This means that Brian Gregory will not find himself in Chris Mack's situation of having to waste a valuable scholarship on a career pine-jockey in a desperate attempt to fill a hole in the roster after the unexpected departure of the team's best player.


Dayton has not passed Xavier as a program yet, but as each season goes by, Brian Gregory has been building a stronger roster and closing the gap between the Flyers and the Musketeers. I believe it is likely that the Flyers will win the Atlantic 10 Conference this season and continue to improve relative to Xavier and the rest of the Atlantic 10 basketball teams. However, that is only one man's humble opinion. As always, we'll see . . .


Related Threads:

PG Chooses Dayton (Juwan Staten) (Atlantic 10 MB thread started February 27, 2008)

Spring Period Signings in the A-10 (Josh Parker) (Atlantic 10 MB thread started April 18, 2009)

Ralph Hill, 2010 SF commits to Dayton (Atlantic 10 MB thread started April 28, 2009)

Class of 2010: ESPNU Super 60 (Juwan Staten) (Atlantic 10 MB thread started May 1, 2009)

Overview of Your Team Next Year (Atlantic 10 MB thread started May 20, 2009)

Dayton vs. Xavier in 2009-10 (Atlantic 10 MB thread started May 29, 2009)

2009-10 Preseason Rankings (Atlantic 10 MB thread started June 16, 2009)

July 2009: AAU Tournaments and Evaluation Period (Atlantic 10 MB thread started June 26, 2009)

2010 NBA Draft (Atlantic 10 MB thread started June 26, 2009)

Berry to Dayton (Atlantic 10 MB thread started July 2, 2009)

Chris Wright on Yahoo! homepage (Atlantic 10 MB thread started July 7, 2009)

Dayton Flyers Land Another Top 100 Recruit (Brandon Spearman) (Atlantic 10 MB thread started July 17, 2009)

SF Devin Oliver Commits to Dayton (Atlantic 10 MB thread started October 18, 2009)

Today is National Letter of Intent Day (Atlantic 10 MB thread started November 11, 2009)

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Atlantic 10 Commitments: HS Class of 2008 (ESPN / Scouts Inc.)

Atlantic 10 Commitments: HS Class of 2009 (ESPN / Scouts Inc.)

Atlantic 10 Commitments: HS Class of 2010 (ESPN / Scouts Inc.)

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Atlantic 10: 2009-10 Predicted Order of Finish (A10 MB thread started October 6, 2009)

Rivals.com Ranks All 347 Division I Teams (A10 MB thread started September 11, 2009)

CHN's 144 Teams in 144 Days (A10 MB thread started July 23, 2009)

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Dayton Recruiting (A10 MB thread started July 2, 2009)

Thinking About ... DAYTON (WH MB thread started October 17, 2009)


2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way (A10 MB thread started September 29, 2009)

ESPN's Top Basketball Programs of the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, 2000 (A10 MB thread started October 5, 2009)

A-10 Non-conference Records Predictions (A10 MB thread started October 10, 2009)

A10 Media Day (A10 MB thread started October 20, 2009)

Early Season Tournaments (A10 MB thread started August 6, 2009)

Dayton's 3-Point Shooting to be Upgraded for 2010-11 Season (A10 MB thread started November 21, 2009)

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Dayton Flyers 2009-10 Schedule & Results (DaytonFlyers.com)

Game 1: # 21 Dayton 90, Creighton 80 (Flyers 1-0):
CU/UD Game thoughts (A10 MB thread)

Game 2: # 18 Dayton 63, # 22 Georgia Tech 59 (Flyers 2-0):
Puerto Rico thread......UD/GA Tech (A10 MB thread)

Game 3: # 5 Villanova 71, Dayton 65 (Flyers 2-1):
UD/Nova game thread (A10 MB thread)

Game 4: Kansas State 83, Dayton 75 (Flyers 2-2):
UD/Kansas St. game thread (A10 MB thread)

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a10nick

Excellent and thorough analysis, Muddy!

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I just want the team I support to be in a stronger conference. I'd prefer it to be a stronger A-10! To me that would mean every member would have at least 2 trips to the NCAA Tourney and 5 winning seasons during each 10-year cycle. It would also be great for every program to seriously challenge for a league title (either regular season or Tourney) at least once during that same period of time.

FlyingElvis

It's amazing to think how far UD recruiting has come over the last 10 years. It feels like some very high quality recruits are within our reach now. The place where it really began to take off was with Chris Wright. He attracted a few other reputable locals, and now that core group is beginning to attract the attention of other quality midwestern recruits. And all the while, BG can find some of those under-recognized / under-recruited guys like Chris Johnson along the way. Now that UD is building a little bit of a post-season, NCAA resume, It's just making the UD salesjob a little easier. All along, UD Arena and the fan support have been good selling points, but there is a lot more going in our favor now.

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"US Bank Arena can't be that bad"

xu95

Hopefully the good news for you is when Gregory leaves (or gets fired) the next coach can keep the level of recruits going.

I honestly was worried when Sean Miller left about the quality of recruits, but it seems like Chris Mack and team has kept it at par or even kicked it up slightly.

And good analysis Muddy. I don't know what you do for a living but it seems like you have a lot of free time. I sure wish I did.

xu95

Blue Dog

prop's typical work day:

"Granny can I have $5 for my Rudy flyer piggie bank?

Thanks and don't forget to call me for dinner like you keep doing."

SquidLegs

Here is another recruiting update from Doug Harris:

http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayto...de-188509.html

http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayto...me-188486.html

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The two homer reasons that Xavier fans are delusional in their evaluation of the Muskies: 1. Byron Larkin 2. Brian Snow

Xaviers Shame:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gpS7PSYWcM

X Factor

With Squids latest two links, that brings the link total on Jesse Berry to 234 links.

I would hate to see the link total if Payne commits to UD.

Brian Gregory - 6 years at Dayton = 2 four star recruits.

Chris Mack - 3 months as HC at Xavier = 2 four star recruits.

SquidLegs

Links are good for you. And the stars have been replace with Buick logos if you haven't heard yet.

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The two homer reasons that Xavier fans are delusional in their evaluation of the Muskies: 1. Byron Larkin 2. Brian Snow

Xaviers Shame:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gpS7PSYWcM

Muddy Waters

Thanks SquidLegs - good stuff !

The July AAU Tournaments and Evaluation Period begin tomorrow, and Brian Gregory already has 4 solid 2010 commitments, including 3 high-quality guards.


Brian Gregory is getting it done in a big way.

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udflyerfan06

And you don't think the success of X over the last 15 years doesn't have something to do with that?? What kind of success had UD had when BG took over? Answer: none. Fact is, UD recruiting has caught up to X's recruiting but another fact is it looks like recruiting is going to another level for both programs with fans both proclaiming that next year's class could be the best ever for each school....of course for that to happen for either school, AP has to commit to one of them....

btw, looking positive for BG landing another 4 star in Spearman (crosses fingers)

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Going from Xavier to Arizona is like going from a Buick to a Lexus. ---Sean Miller

A10fan2

This harkens me back to the days of Binnie,Meachum,Plummer,Alvarez,and Roberts. Wasn't this the UD "Fab5"? Wasn't this the class that came with predictions of "UD is back"? KYFLYER and co. constantly updating the board with stats from their freshmen year. Predictions of multiple NCAA appearances and A10 championships! The class oompa loompa was finally able to hitch his wagon to. Seems I'm getting deja vus all over again. 3 players committed: 1 4* and 2 3*. The '04 squad was 5 with 3*'s. The '04 squad made 0 NCAA appearances. Won 0 A10 titles. I'm not saying....I'm just saying.

The real questions in my mind are:

Will every intenet blogger that mentions a UD recruit get linked to?
Will we get links to every high-school game these guys play this year?
Can we get a thread with more than 500 links going?
Will the original UD "Fab5" see their jerseys raised at the Dump?


Seriously, UD has some nice recruits on board but you guys go wwwaaaaayyyyy overboard with the threads and links to every mention of one of them. Muddy/Prop/2link already has grandma on "high alert". I think she needs a break.

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Muddy's from 2009

He has since made the same "prediction" this year. CLASSIC

udflyerfan06

On paper, you can't begin to compare what the 10 class COULD be for UD with that class. BTW, Roberts was a 2 Buick, not a three. I believe Alvarez was a 2 Buick also. So now we are comparing three 3 Buicks and two 2 Buicks with what could be a 5 Buick, 2 4 Buicks, a 3 Buick and a 2 Buick. Trust me, my enthusiasm will simmer down somewhat if we don't get BS and AP, but IF we get both of them you can't even begin to compare those two classes.

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Going from Xavier to Arizona is like going from a Buick to a Lexus. ---Sean Miller

X Factor

If you really are going to do the whole buick = stars thing, how do you guys expect anyone to take you seriously?

Really, that is something a 12 year old would do.

Let's have our debates, but without the insanely childish bit.

udflyerfan06

You don't have to take me seriously, you can call them whatever you want (stars, Buicks, Gregorys,Pintos, cheetos, fritos, traffic cones, ect) but it doesn't change the facts of the post and that is the comparison of Roberts class with what could be the 10 class...there is no comparison although A10fan tried desperately to connect to the two.

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Going from Xavier to Arizona is like going from a Buick to a Lexus. ---Sean Miller

A10fan2

That's exactly my point. 5 years ago the hype machine on this board for that class was off the charts! It was non-stop "X's domination is over" or "just wait 'til these guys .....". After a few years of no results the attitudes changed again to "wait 'til BG really gets his type of players". Well, it's been how many years since oompa loompa took over? Could he only win with OP's recruits? Time will obviously tell but one good year of recruits doesn't convince me that UD is catching up especially when 40% of that class could be local kids that want to stay close to home.

BTW, if Staten and Payne weren't from Dayton there is no way UD is even in the picture. It's good that they are but I don't think you can dispute it.

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Muddy's from 2009

He has since made the same "prediction" this year. CLASSIC