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Old 09-29-2009, 11:51 AM   #31 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

I like Richmond too. Solid (at times great) guard play for the Spiders. Add in the big man Geriot, who hopefully can get back in the groove quickly, and the Spiders play a style nobody looks forward to matching up with. I have been hoping for LaSalle to break through and this seems to be their best chance. From what I have read it sounds like the NCAA screwed over Vernon Goodridge but I don't know every detail involved with that decision.

Xavier can attribute their preseason ranking to respect earned. Programs are evaluated on if they make the NCAA or not. For the life of me I couldn't tell you who won the regular season championship in the SEC, Big East, Big 10, et al but I have a pretty good idea which schools from those conferences are appearing in the 'big dance' every year.
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Old 09-29-2009, 11:56 AM   #32 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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I like Temple, but that's purely based on Lavoy Allen growing up and being consistent like a leader. Can't say I feel safe about that, but he's an upperclassmen now and it's time. He should be one of the 5-6 best players in this league. It's up to him.
I'm not really sure Voy is a leader per se. I know him very well, and he's just a very quiet guy who lets his actions on the court do the talking. I think Ryan Brooks will be more of a leader for us. Outside of that, yeah, Voy is one of the top 5 players in the league. We all know his D and rebounding will be there. Hopefully, he picks his O up, and can increase his average closer to 16-18.

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It looks to me like you're a little biased. Anyways, I think we can agree that Dionte is not easily replacable. Inge and Olmos might now have been stars, but they were starters who did certain things well that will be missed whether you want to believe it or not. And when you're replacing those guys with the likes of Fernandez and Eric - you'll start to miss Inge and Olmos even more.
Um, clearly I'm biased; This is my school and team we're talking about. It seems to me that you're entirely overrating Semaj and Serge. Serge, while one of my favorites, and nicest guy I've ever met, simply was a fine, albeit not spectacular player. He provided good defense, and terrible rebounding. Lavoy will take care of some of his rebounds, and other players like Eric will too, while adding the defensive presence Serge left. Semaj? Semaj was the most inconsistent player I've ever seen. Juan was a helluva upgrade the second he stepped on American soil. No loss there. He's playing in Iceland, not Poland/Russia/Greece/etc. for a reason.

Again, if your argument is we're going to miss Dionte, then fine, I'll accept that, but Serge and Semaj? No freakin way.

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Temple should never be short-changed, particularly by fans of programs that have done virtually nothing to distinguish themselved throughout their history as members of the Atlantic 10 Conference!
Exactly.

Again, I'm not saying we should be a clear cut favorite in the A10, but a Fran Dunphy lead team is not going to just roll over and die because we lost arguably our most prolific scorer in school history. This team will be fighting towards a goal of reaching the NCAA Tournament again. Whether that means winning the A10, winning the A10 Tourney again, or being an at-large, you simply cannot count the Temple Owls out preseason.

Go Owls!
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Old 09-30-2009, 02:40 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

The one thing in XUs favor is they know how to win the league. Dayton has never won the league regular season since it went to one division. When you've been there, done that, there's no convincing needed to get guys to believe.

Experience.
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Old 09-30-2009, 06:57 PM   #34 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

X is solid...again. I'm not sure the "formula" or the "Xavier way" is in place this year though...especially with the schedule they have in place. This schedule was probably thought of with S. Miller, D. Brown and K. Parrom coming in in mind. X has letters missing from the equation this year and that is senior leadership. I hear all the time that X always reloads even with the loss of seniors but there aren't any seniors (J. Love, 6 PPG) to replace the losses.

Injuries can happen to anybody but I think an injury to anyone in the front court to X is deadly. Even more so then if those guys stayed healthy and they lost Crawford. X is razor thin in the front court with only 4 players total (unless you count Taylor). Unlike UD with Benson and Kav, Robinson HAS to play, and in instances of foul trouble, play allot. The 4 spot is being manned by a guy who is terribly athletic but hasn't scored outside 2 feet in his career making him terribly easy to guard for most other 4s.

Can X win the A10 this year? Absolutely but right now I don't see the formula in place. First year coach, youth all over the court, and thin in the front court. If the situations were reversed X fans would be licking their chops.
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Old 09-30-2009, 07:40 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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Originally Posted by Flyer75 View Post
X is solid...again. I'm not sure the "formula" or the "Xavier way" is in place this year though...especially with the schedule they have in place. This schedule was probably thought of with S. Miller, D. Brown and K. Parrom coming in in mind. X has letters missing from the equation this year and that is senior leadership. I hear all the time that X always reloads even with the loss of seniors but there aren't any seniors (J. Love, 6 PPG) to replace the losses.

Injuries can happen to anybody but I think an injury to anyone in the front court to X is deadly. Even more so then if those guys stayed healthy and they lost Crawford. X is razor thin in the front court with only 4 players total (unless you count Taylor). Unlike UD with Benson and Kav, Robinson HAS to play, and in instances of foul trouble, play allot. The 4 spot is being manned by a guy who is terribly athletic but hasn't scored outside 2 feet in his career making him terribly easy to guard for most other 4s.

Can X win the A10 this year? Absolutely but right now I don't see the formula in place. First year coach, youth all over the court, and thin in the front court. If the situations were reversed X fans would be licking their chops.
I'm licking my chops with what we have right now. Same system. Mack will be just fine; I just don't see him having a rough shake-down cruise. And our backcourt issues of last year are a very, very distant concern. I'm not going to worry about injuries. No fan of any team should - just go with it and we'll see how fate treats each team in that regard. This Xavier team has a ton of talent on it and the personnel provide Mack the ability to go with 2 or 3 guards, depending upon the circumstances.
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Old 09-30-2009, 10:08 PM   #36 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

You have to worry about injuries because they are inevitable. Dayton will go a legit 13 deep and I'm still worried about injuries. I like Kav and Benson, but I don't want them playing 15 minutes a game before they're ready. If Kurt, Searcy, or (knock on wood) Wright go down, the freshmen go from 5-7 minutes to 15-17... ready or not.

Players will get hurt. If you're lucky, your team will have no serious injuries and minimal injuries altogether. But guys will twist a knee, roll an ankle, pop a shoulder in a battle for the ball...it will happen.

You can book it right now, 4-5 significant (10-15 minutes a game or more) players per conference will get seriously hurt and miss most of the year. It's going to happen. We can all just hope it doesn't happen to our team.
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Old 09-30-2009, 10:27 PM   #37 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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You have to worry about injuries because they are inevitable. Dayton will go a legit 13 deep and I'm still worried about injuries. I like Kav and Benson, but I don't want them playing 15 minutes a game before they're ready. If Kurt, Searcy, or (knock on wood) Wright go down, the freshmen go from 5-7 minutes to 15-17... ready or not.

Players will get hurt. If you're lucky, your team will have no serious injuries and minimal injuries altogether. But guys will twist a knee, roll an ankle, pop a shoulder in a battle for the ball...it will happen.

You can book it right now, 4-5 significant (10-15 minutes a game or more) players per conference will get seriously hurt and miss most of the year. It's going to happen. We can all just hope it doesn't happen to our team.
Yeah injuries definitely happen but I don't think you can go into a season planning on them and building expectations based on injuries. I don't think Brian Gregory and Chris Mack are going to be running practices telling the players to imagine what it would be like if Wright/Crawford is out. It is just as unpredictable as guessing which players will transfer out after each year even though that is also likely. You just can't plan for those events, you just have to hope that when they happen they do minimal damage to the team and can be overcome.
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Old 09-30-2009, 10:47 PM   #38 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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Yeah injuries definitely happen but I don't think you can go into a season planning on them and building expectations based on injuries. I don't think Brian Gregory and Chris Mack are going to be running practices telling the players to imagine what it would be like if Wright/Crawford is out. It is just as unpredictable as guessing which players will transfer out after each year even though that is also likely. You just can't plan for those events, you just have to hope that when they happen they do minimal damage to the team and can be overcome.
You can't plan for bad shooting nights, lackluster efforts, certain players being all-world when they've never played a game for the school or any number of things, and they're all more unpredictable than injuries. But they need to be taken into account for an educated prediction. Otherwise you're just guessing. If you have a team with suspect depth, you can shift a win or two to the other column right off the bat, because these things will bite.
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Old 10-01-2009, 03:10 AM   #39 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

Preseason Rankings,

Maybe teams should go ahead and hang a banner for them.
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Old 10-01-2009, 04:07 AM   #40 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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Dayton will go a legit 13 deep . . .

Actually, the Flyers will go a legitmate 12 deep this season.

One of Dayton's 13 scholarships for the 2009-10 season has been awarded to Josh Parker (who will be sitting out this season due to NCAA Division I Transfer Rules), but I wouldn't expect a Wright State guy to know that.

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Old 10-01-2009, 06:09 AM   #41 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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Originally Posted by MuskieCinci View Post
Yeah injuries definitely happen but I don't think you can go into a season planning on them and building expectations based on injuries. I don't think Brian Gregory and Chris Mack are going to be running practices telling the players to imagine what it would be like if Wright/Crawford is out. It is just as unpredictable as guessing which players will transfer out after each year even though that is also likely. You just can't plan for those events, you just have to hope that when they happen they do minimal damage to the team and can be overcome.
Discussing injuries is purely hypothetical, but Adam is right, every team will suffer some sort of injury, whether it be major or just banged up players. X had TH last year, UD had RL. My point in bringing them up for X this year was to point out the depth issue in the frontcourt. I still think X could handle losing Crawford more then they could handle losing a Frease, Love or JM simply because of the depth issue. X has only 3 interchangeable players for the 4/5 spot.

Frease is true center only, not a 4. Between Love, JM, and freshman Robinson and that's what X has for the rest of the minutes at the 4/5 spot. Throw Taylor in there if you want, UD fans are praying it comes to this and X fans are praying it doesn't. Even foul trouble becomes an issue here FORCING Robinson to have to play more then he would if Brown were still around. IF Robinson turns out to be some secret stud player then this is all a moot point but I have the feeling he'll play like an avg freshman in the league, showing signs at times but also looking completely lost at times. Dayton on the other hand has to replace the earth shattering numbers of 6 and 4 that Little left behind. Forget about Kavs and Benson, CW might almost do that by himself this year.
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Old 10-01-2009, 06:27 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

For the last 3 years X has had to replace the following:

'07- 33.5/pts,15.6 rbs, 3.9 assts - Elite 8 in '08
'08- 32.1/pts,10.6 rbs, 9.6 assts - Sweet 16 in '09
'09- 37.7/pts,15.7 rbs, 5.8 assts - ???? in '10

They somehow managed to do it in the past and I don't see why they can't this year. I'm not at all worried about the 4/5. This team will be guard oriented.
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Old 10-01-2009, 06:36 AM   #43 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

And in each one of those cases you replaced an outgoing senior with an incoming senior. I'm not saying X won't be successful this year, heck you might even make a Final Four run, who knows. I'm just saying percentages on paper say, X hasn't tried this formula in years. Usually the roles have been reversed: X reloading with senior talent while UD struggled to find an identity each year.

I too think you will win or lose with the guard play but you can't just toss out the frontcourt like it doesn't even matter. You still have to bodies out there. IF, IF, IF Love or Frease sustain a season ending or just one of those nagging season injuries, you then are relying very very very heavily on a guy who hasn't scored outside of 2-3 feet (but is only 6'8") and a freshman who has yet to step on the court. And when I say relying, I mean as in starting and playing sig min.

UD can certainly weather an injury to the 5 spot better then X. Some of us wouldn't mind seeing it happen for the betterment of the team (j/k).
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Old 10-01-2009, 06:39 AM   #44 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

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=
'07- 33.5/pts,15.6 rbs, 3.9 assts - Elite 8 in '08
'08- 32.1/pts,10.6 rbs, 9.6 assts - Sweet 16 in '09
'09- 37.7/pts,15.7 rbs, 5.8 assts - NIT in '10
Sometimes the chances X posters give are just too easy...
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Old 10-01-2009, 07:00 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Re: 2009-10 Season Predictions: Flyers Lead the Way

Xavier’s schedule is considerably more impressive that Dayton’s, but far riskier for a team with one senior, no proven forwards, and a rookie head coach.

The games highlighted in bold below are only some of the games the Musketeers are at risk of losing:

Xavier Musketeers 2009-10 Schedule

Date / Opponent / Location / Time

11/13/09 vs. Youngstown State Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 PM ET
11/17/09 vs. Bowling Green Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 PM ET
11/21/09 vs. Sacred Heart Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 PM ET

Old Spice Classic

11/26/09 vs. Marquette Orlando, Fla. 2:00 PM ET
11/27/09 Creighton/Michigan Orlando, Fla. 12/2:30 PM ET
11/29/09 TBD Orlando, Fla. TBA


12/04/09 vs. Kent State Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 PM ET
12/08/09 at Kansas State Manhattan, Kan. 9:00 PM ET
12/13/09 vs. Cincinnati Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 PM ET
12/19/09 at Butler Indianapolis, Ind. 2:00 PM ET

12/23/09 vs. Miami (Oh) Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 PM ET
12/29/09 vs. LSU Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 PM ET
01/03/10 at Wake Forest Winston Salem, NC 5:30 PM ET
01/07/10 at La Salle * Philadelphia, Pa. 7:00 PM ET

01/10/10 at George Washington * Washington, D.C. 12:00 PM ET
01/13/10 vs. Charlotte * Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 PM ET
01/16/10 vs. Dayton * Cincinnati, Ohio 11:00 AM ET
01/20/10 at Temple * Philadelphia, Pa. 7:00 PM ET

01/23/10 vs. Rhode Island * Cincinnati, Ohio 6:00 PM ET
01/28/10 vs. Duquesne * Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 PM ET
01/31/10 vs. Fordham * Cincinnati, Ohio 2:00 PM ET
02/03/10 at Massachusetts * Amherst, Mass. 7:00 PM ET
02/06/10 at Dayton * Dayton, Ohio 12:00 PM ET
02/13/10 at Florida Gainesville, Fla. 6:00 PM ET

02/17/10 vs. Saint Joseph's * Cincinnati, Ohio 7:30 PM ET
02/20/10 at Charlotte * Charlotte, N.C. 2:00 PM ET
02/24/10 at Saint Louis * Saint Louis, Mo. 8:00 PM ET

02/28/10 vs. Richmond * Cincinnati, Ohio 1:00 PM ET
03/03/10 at Fordham * Bronx, N.Y. 7:00 PM ET
03/06/10 vs. St. Bonaventure * Cincinnati, Ohio 4:00 PM ET


If Xavier doesn’t get off to a good start, the wheels could fall off the blue wagon quicker than most of you might expect.

The NIT would then be a very optimistic outcome for Xavier in March.

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