Speaking for myself, I think 4-5 bids sounds about right, and it would be a banner year for the A10. The A10 we know today gets 4 or more bids about once every 5 years or so.
There are two many games remaining between the top 6, one or two teams will inevitably fall behind. I don't see any way that doesn't happen. I think what we'll get is three locks heading into the conference tourney, with three more bubble teams looking to play their way in. Even if two of those teams end up in the finals, which is unlikely, one of them will fail to do enough.
I'll call 5 right now, with the potential to lose a bid depending on how the season and how other conference tourneys play out.
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Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.
Temple - 5
Xavier - 7
Rhode Island - 9
Richmond - 10
Charlotte - 10
Dayton - 12
(5) bids realistic still a lot of ball to be played
early prediction (4)
The next statement to be made... getting multiple teams into the Sweet 16
If all bids go one and done... the Committee will not grant more than (2) to (3) bids next year
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If Every team wins every game they are favored to win from here on out Temple, X, Charlotte, and URI are in. Richmond and Dayton will be bubble.
If Richmond can win the ones their favored in, plus upset URI, Xavier, OR Charlotte--they are in (and it wouldn't knock any of the others out).
If Dayton doesn't lose anything other than @ Richmond, and @ Temple, they are likely in.
It's going to take the bottom of the league pulling some upsets to keep at least 5 from going. That could easily happen though.
If UR wins their favored games, that gets them to 22-9 (11-5). I have to think we like our chances (given our OOC profile), but we would probably feel safer winning our first game in the A-10 tourney. I suppose it would also depend on where we were seeded there. Does 11-5 get us a top four seed? Tough to say.
Edit: 11-5 probably doesn't get us a top four seed, looking at the respective schedules down the stretch (if you presume all teams win their favored games). Wednesday's games (Day/Cha, UR/URI) are huge.
A team, or more likely teams, will lose at St. Louis in the coming weeks. It will be a huge factor.
Then, what happens in the A10 tournament will matter a ton as well.
Even Temple should not be all that cozy right now, though their schedule is favorable. But lose a home game (URI or UD) and maybe @SLU and that GW game at home to end the year becomes a must win.
At some point there are only so many bids to go around. I get the feeling like a lot of these bubble A10 teams are battling against each other.
Maybe. But the Pac10 is giving up a number of bids, the Big10 and ACC are eating each other, and the SEC is pretty lackluster. These extra bids have to go somewhere, and I don't see the lower conferences doing much to earn them (MWC is likely 3, the rest are marginal 2 bid at best), barring more than the usual set of upsets in conference tournaments.
We'll see, still a lot depends on the upper A10 teams taking care of business against the lower half (and avoiding Saint Louis havoc). It'd be nice if Xavier can beat Florida too, one last chance to raise the profile of the league.
Yeah, I understand what you're saying. But the ACC, Big 12, and Big East are all super deep where they can each get 7+ bids, with two of them getting 8+ and the Big East 9.
And it happens every year - teams like Butler, Northern Iowa, Old Dominion, etc. won't win there conference tourneys and make what should be one bid conferences multi-bid leagues.
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There are two many games remaining between the top 6, one or two teams will inevitably fall behind. I don't see any way that doesn't happen. I think what we'll get is three locks heading into the conference tourney, with three more bubble teams looking to play their way in. Even if two of those teams end up in the finals, which is unlikely, one of them will fail to do enough.
I'll call 5 right now, with the potential to lose a bid depending on how the season and how other conference tourneys play out.
There is a lot of ball...but understand this.
I believe that if none of the top six lose to anyone outside of the top six, none of them will finish below 9-7. I also believe (I may be mistaken, I just did a quick glance of the schedules) that if they hold serve at home, none will finish below 10-6. Those kinds of records have seen at-larges from our conference in years past. With the way the BCS teams are crapping away their own chances, it's possible to see five get in, as well as six. No more Dayton losses to St. Joe's (the only truly awful blemish of any of the top 6) and it may be truly a banner year where the A-10 receives as many or more bids than all but two of the BCS conferences. I'm rooting for the top 6 (even against St. Joe's).
That's a lot to happen though. I mean, we just saw Charlotte trail Fordham the entire game before escaping at the end. Teams are going to lose some games where they're supposed to win. The math is just unavoidable.
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I believe that if none of the top six lose to anyone outside of the top six, none of them will finish below 9-7. I also believe (I may be mistaken, I just did a quick glance of the schedules) that if they hold serve at home, none will finish below 10-6. Those kinds of records have seen at-larges from our conference in years past. With the way the BCS teams are crapping away their own chances, it's possible to see five get in, as well as six. No more Dayton losses to St. Joe's (the only truly awful blemish of any of the top 6) and it may be truly a banner year where the A-10 receives as many or more bids than all but two of the BCS conferences. I'm rooting for the top 6 (even against St. Joe's).
I think it's possible for Dayton or Richmond to get in at 10-6, but the odds aren't good and they'd need a run to the A10 finals. If Charlotte loses 5 more games they're cooked with their SOS. Really, 11-5 with a win in AC is the realistic minimum. Given where they're at now and their projected SOS, Charlotte would probably be in the most trouble at 11-5. Their record in the last 10 would not be so hot. RPIforecast has them finishing at 47RPI/96SOS with a 12-4 record. If that becomes 11-5 they wouldn't be very comfortable. Compare that to Richmond at 11-5 with an expected 38 RPI/67SOS, and Dayton at 11-5 with an expected 33 RPI/41 SOS and similar records vs the top 25/50/100.
Now before the Charlotte folks wad their panties, the Niners only have one loss and can all but lock up a bid at Dayton on Wednesday, so any talk of them going 11-5 is very premature. I just think it's an interesting hypothetical scenario.
Another interesting hypothetical would be Xavier at 12-4 with a loss to Florida. They'd have a great RPI and SOS, but no quality OOC or road wins (would have to lose at Charlotte and SLU to fall to 12-4 IMO). Three good wins over URI/Dayton/Richmond, but all at home. I think they'd get in, but that would be one interesting resume. Virtually no deviation from expected outcomes and no real middle ground. How in the world do you view that resume? I honestly have no idea. Good news for them, all they really need is one good road/OOC win, so a win at Florida or Charlotte locks in their bid for sure.
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Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.
Last edited by AdamtheFlyer : 02-08-2010 at 08:30 PM.
I'm again loathe to get into a conversation that involves a lot of hypotheticals, but that's what message boards are for, I guess. And I will preface my remarks by saying that I think my team is by no means a polished product at all and still has a lot of work to do (like everyone else in the mix). HOWEVER....
I think UR is in as good a position as anyone in this league for a bid right now. We have two league losses -- one is to the team currently in first place in the league, the other to a team we also beat by 30 points. We also have the best OOC resume of anyone in league play, save for Temple, who we just destroyed the other day.
Everyone views Temple as a lock, yet they have the same league record we do. Xavier's best wins are against Dayton, who just killed them in the rematch, and Cincinnati, who is 14-8 and will not be dancing. I think Rhody is in great shape right now also. Dayton has a really ugly loss to St. Joe's, and I'm sorry, but those of you who think close losses count for something are fooling yourselves.
I'll say it again...RPI is meaningful to an extent, but just because you played 10 top 50 teams and went 1-9 against them (example) and have a top-25 RPI doesn't really guarantee you anything at the end of the year. You have to beat someone. If X loses to Florida, they better think seriously about winning the A-10 regular season or tourney or else they'll be sweating it out with Dayton on selection day.
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