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Old 05-15-2012, 08:19 PM   #46 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Flyer75 View Post
And some people will make ridicoulous comments like "Dillard is really all UD has"

I think you completely missed my point as I knew some X fans would, like its a personal attack or something on Wells that Oliver came on strong at the end of the season. My whole point was to point out to Mudflap that UD is returning a lot more production then just Dillard and that players like Hill, Luke, and Williams are replaced with extreme ease.
Just sayin' ya got one star and a good supporting cast. We disagree on the the supporting cast. I personally think they'll be about the same as last year. I never even mentioned Wells. I don't think it's a ridiculous comment. I just don't share your enthusiasm for what I see as average/decent players. Maybe you've seen them practice together and noticed amazing speed/ball handling prowess/shooting ability/defensive titans. If that's the case, keep 'em in your top 5.
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Old 05-15-2012, 08:38 PM   #47 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

VCU is a completely different team at home vs. on the road, maybe moreso than any team I have paid attention to in the past couple years. That will be the biggest difference for them in our league vs. the CAA.

In the past few years they lost at Drexel, at Georgia State, at Northeastern twice, at W&M, etc etc. At home of course they have a huge advantage, and at neutral sites they do pretty well. But true road games give them problems, and even a bunch of their league wins on the road were by 1 or 2 points the past few years.

This league is a BIG step up in road competition for them, and I expect a year or two adjustment period. You can't just slog through a down night at St. Louis and expect to win like you can against Towson or UNCW. You'll lose by 15. A lot less margin for error in the A-10. I'd peg them as a top-8 team this season but probably in the second tier of that bunch.
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Old 05-15-2012, 08:40 PM   #48 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Eight Legger View Post
VCU is a completely different team at home vs. on the road, maybe moreso than any team I have paid attention to in the past couple years. That will be the biggest difference for them in our league vs. the CAA.

In the past few years they lost at Drexel, at Georgia State, at Northeastern twice, at W&M, etc etc. At home of course they have a huge advantage, and at neutral sites they do pretty well. But true road games give them problems, and even a bunch of their league wins on the road were by 1 or 2 points the past few years.

This league is a BIG step up in road competition for them, and I expect a year or two adjustment period. You can't just slog through a down night at St. Louis and expect to win like you can against Towson or UNCW. You'll lose by 15. A lot less margin for error in the A-10. I'd peg them as a top-8 team this season but probably in the second tier of that bunch.
You're saying that VCU is stealing our MO? I certainly don't approve of that.
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Old 05-16-2012, 04:10 AM   #49 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by xavierhoops View Post
I didn't miss your point, because you failed to make a point (and trust me, I didn't take it as a personal attack on Dez).

I took it as a blatantly flawed and false comparison that obviously did not accomplish what you tried to. Comparing Oliver to an injured Wells over the last 10 game when UD played the bottom half of the A-10 and Xavier played all NCAA teams has exactly nothing to do with trying to disprove the idea Dillard is all UD has.

It's fine you think Oliver came on strong at the end of the year vs teams such as Fordham, Duquense, Charlotte and George Washington. But what in the heck that has to do with and injured Dez Wells' performance against teams such as St Louis, St Bona, Notre Dame and Baylor and then somehow trying to bring it all together to relate it to Dillard being the only guy UD has is.... confusing at best, illogical at worst.

By the way, if Dillard gets hurt at beginning of year, it could be another downright scary year for Dayton. I think that's why some people may say he's all UD has.
Of course that's true for UD and Dillard. It probably would have been true for X and Holloway the last two seasons also. Its probably true for SLU and Mitchell, Williams and UMass, and for every team you can find one player that if they lose it knocks them significantly backward.

As far as your SOS argument goes with Oliver, fair enough, but ask your fellow fans to be consistent. Some here are putting a lot on Philmore who put up gawdy numbers at Towson. I guess your theory was Provence true for Travis Taylor though.
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Old 05-16-2012, 05:49 AM   #50 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Eight Legger View Post
I'd peg them as a top-8 team this season but probably in the second tier of that bunch.
In the first ESPN look at next year's top 25, VCU is the only A10 member listed. (Apparently because they return a lot of last year's starters.)

Xavier and St Louis are "on the cusp" with 15 other teams.
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Old 05-16-2012, 06:30 AM   #51 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
In the first ESPN look at next year's top 25, VCU is the only A10 member listed. (Apparently because they return a lot of last year's starters.)

Xavier and St Louis are "on the cusp" with 15 other teams.
After the Final Four in 2011, we graduated 4 senior starters. Last year with one senior (Burgess) and the 9th youngest team in the country we were a basket away from beating Indiana and into Sweet 16 and finished the season at 29-7. For 2013, we graduated Burgess. Sure he was experienced and set the NCAA record for consecutive starts (146). Last year he struggled at times to be 'the guy' that you expect a senior to be, to take over a game when it needs to happen. Instead we got 'the guy' by committee, the majority of that committee returns. I expect us to be top 3 next year in the A10.

PS, when UR came over from the CAA they won the A10 their first year. Just sayin.
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Old 05-16-2012, 07:15 AM   #52 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

just want to say again their is no way that UMass is not the Preseason favorites to win the A-10

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Old 05-16-2012, 07:56 AM   #53 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
In the first ESPN look at next year's top 25, VCU is the only A10 member listed. (Apparently because they return a lot of last year's starters.)
Oh, well I guess ESPN knows everything then. How silly of me!

And for the VCU poster, UR didn't win the A-10 its first year in the league but it did play in the title game and lost to Xavier.

VCU is a strong team, but 29-7 in the CAA is equal to about 24-12 in the A-10, and we have several teams capable of that record or better this year.
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Old 05-16-2012, 08:13 AM   #54 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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After the Final Four in 2011, we graduated 4 senior starters. Last year with one senior (Burgess) and the 9th youngest team in the country we were a basket away from beating Indiana and into Sweet 16 and finished the season at 29-7. For 2013, we graduated Burgess. Sure he was experienced and set the NCAA record for consecutive starts (146). Last year he struggled at times to be 'the guy' that you expect a senior to be, to take over a game when it needs to happen. Instead we got 'the guy' by committee, the majority of that committee returns. I expect us to be top 3 next year in the A10.

PS, when UR came over from the CAA they won the A10 their first year. Just sayin.
BTW we were 11-5 in the A-10 in 2002, which I think was 2nd, and didn't win the Tournament. Doesn't change your argument that immediate success is possible...

I agree you guys had a lot of youth last year, and with only a slight shift in responsibilities may not miss a beat. But I will say if that 9th youngest comes from the UNCW writer, then his method of looking at the roster instead of the minutes played may not be the best measure (just the easiest available). I actually spoke with him about it, and he agreed that he wanted to look into a better methodology but I never saw any follow up.

Anyway, looking at individual teams, VCU may appear top four but with at least seven teams being bunched at the top that is far from assured.

So let's take a headcount...

There are the 3 teams everyone seems to think will continue to be solid (SLU, Umass, SJU)

Then the new guys, VCU

Then the 3 teams that you can never count on XU & TU who often look down but rarely stay that way, and UD who far too often are quite the reverse.

Then there's us, UR. Just outside the cluster (in more ways than one) of eight last year and with what appear to be the right pieces being added, but with no idea how soon those pieces will fit in.

There's LSU who only needs to find some height to improve, and SBU who lost their best player but likely won't fall as far as expected.

As for the rest, it is just hard to tell when they will come together as a team.
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Old 05-16-2012, 08:24 AM   #55 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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In the first ESPN look at next year's top 25, VCU is the only A10 member listed. (Apparently because they return a lot of last year's starters.)

Xavier and St Louis are "on the cusp" with 15 other teams.
So, we have pages on this thread of A-10 fans picking Xavier 7th or 8th in A-10 conference, yet ESPN analysts right now listing X as "on the cusp" of Top 25 nationally.

That's surprising to me with everything we lose (4/5 starters) but I guess when your name is "Xavier", you have a sustained record over the last decade of reloading and results, and you're bringing in a Top-15 national recruiting class...

Yep, it all makes sense now why ESPN would rank us on the cusp of Top 25 and our fellow A-10 fans would predict us to be 7th or 8th.

Good thing Cintas doesn't have Pre-Season A-10 Championship banner hanging up anywhere.
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Old 05-16-2012, 08:56 AM   #56 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by xavierhoops View Post
So, we have pages on this thread of A-10 fans picking Xavier 7th or 8th in A-10 conference, yet ESPN analysts right now listing X as "on the cusp" of Top 25 nationally.

That's surprising to me with everything we lose (4/5 starters) but I guess when your name is "Xavier", you have a sustained record over the last decade of reloading and results, and you're bringing in a Top-15 national recruiting class...

Yep, it all makes sense now why ESPN would rank us on the cusp of Top 25 and our fellow A-10 fans would predict us to be 7th or 8th.

Good thing Cintas doesn't have Pre-Season A-10 Championship banner hanging up anywhere.
That ESPN article was assuming Lyons was coming back (at least I'm pretty sure it was). I said 2 months ago, with Lyons, X was a 1-4 team...without him I'm guessing 4-7. Imo
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:09 AM   #57 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

[QUOTE=xavierhoops;6841030]So, we have pages on this thread of A-10 fans picking Xavier 7th or 8th in A-10 conference, yet ESPN analysts right now listing X as "on the cusp" of Top 25 nationally.

That's surprising to me with everything we lose (4/5 starters) but I guess when your name is "Xavier", you have a sustained record over the last decade of reloading and results, and you're bringing in a Top-15 national recruiting class...

Yep, it all makes sense now why ESPN would rank us on the cusp of Top 25 and our fellow A-10 fans would predict us to be 7th or 8th.

Good thing Cintas doesn't have Pre-Season A-10 Championship banner hanging up anywhere.[/QUOTE]

You could always steal one from Dayton.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:15 AM   #58 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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BTW we were 11-5 in the A-10 in 2002, which I think was 2nd, and didn't win the Tournament. Doesn't change your argument that immediate success is possible...

I agree you guys had a lot of youth last year, and with only a slight shift in responsibilities may not miss a beat. But I will say if that 9th youngest comes from the UNCW writer, then his method of looking at the roster instead of the minutes played may not be the best measure (just the easiest available). I actually spoke with him about it, and he agreed that he wanted to look into a better methodology but I never saw any follow up.

Anyway, looking at individual teams, VCU may appear top four but with at least seven teams being bunched at the top that is far from assured.

So let's take a headcount...

There are the 3 teams everyone seems to think will continue to be solid (SLU, Umass, SJU)

Then the new guys, VCU

Then the 3 teams that you can never count on XU & TU who often look down but rarely stay that way, and UD who far too often are quite the reverse.

Then there's us, UR. Just outside the cluster (in more ways than one) of eight last year and with what appear to be the right pieces being added, but with no idea how soon those pieces will fit in.

There's LSU who only needs to find some height to improve, and SBU who lost their best player but likely won't fall as far as expected.

As for the rest, it is just hard to tell when they will come together as a team.
I think Brian Mull (the UNCW writer) was the first I read the 9th youngest from, but it was repeated everywhere. I did see something about average minutes of experience per player per team and we were really young in that one as well. Burgess had a ton of minutes, but behind him Theus had one season as a backup PG, and Troy had two seasons of mostly garbage minutes. Anyways, they all have a lot more experience under their belt coming into this year and should continue to improve. Besides, we will still have Burgess for 4 more years. His younger, and by most reports better, brother Jordan.

I'm not sure if it is just because I'm still new to the A-10 or if the top is clustered that much more than the CAA, but it seems from my early looking that there are 6-7 teams that have a legit shot at the title. This should be fun!
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:21 AM   #59 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Good thing Cintas doesn't have Pre-Season A-10 Championship banner hanging up anywhere.[/QUOTE]

You could always steal one from Dayton.

We don't have room. We keep that space for our sweet sixteen, elite eight, and A10 regular championships banners.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:22 AM   #60 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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That ESPN article was assuming Lyons was coming back (at least I'm pretty sure it was). I said 2 months ago, with Lyons, X was a 1-4 team...without him I'm guessing 4-7. Imo
That's a great point. The ESPN rankings were from a group of their people polled, and on April 3rd. Lyons decided on AZ a few day later. So that might takes us further down. They are suppose to update it soon for all the recent activity.

Since you agreed to be "fortunate," I'm not going to blame you for the VCU posters who have already adopted your "if we had made one more basket" offense.
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