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Old 05-16-2012, 09:27 AM   #61 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
That's a great point. The ESPN rankings were from a group of their people polled, and on April 3rd. Lyons decided on AZ a few day later. So that might takes us further down. They are suppose to update it soon for all the recent activity.

Since you agreed to be "fortunate," I'm not going to blame you for the VCU posters who have already adopted your "if we had made one more basket" offense.
If we had made one more against gmoo, if we had scored once in that 12 minute slump against Indiana...
So close, with such a young team. They will remember. I'm sure Shaka will be using that mental thing appropriately to keep the guys focused in the offseason. We didn't win, and we were |--| this close. I think that leaves you hungry for more, to do better. This is more where I was coming from when talking about our team last year into this year.
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Old 05-16-2012, 09:35 AM   #62 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Flyer75 View Post
That ESPN article was assuming Lyons was coming back (at least I'm pretty sure it was). I said 2 months ago, with Lyons, X was a 1-4 team...without him I'm guessing 4-7. Imo
That makes more sense. I really was surprised that they had us up there.

I really have no idea where teams will fall next year, but I just think people would have learned over the last decade it's usually not smart to pick Xavier to have an "average" year.

I wonder what all the pre-season talk on this board was 2 years ago when X was losing Crawford, Crawford, Crawford, oh yeah and Jason Love (I'm guessing it was much of the same; predicting a down/rebuilding year)... A year where we had a 2nd yr true walk-on playing significant minutes for part of the season and still managed to win the A-10 title and make NCAA tourney.
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Old 05-16-2012, 10:05 AM   #63 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

A team returning a huge chunk of players is often times hard to predict. Some players do get complacent and they often need new players to push them to keep their spots. VCU seems to be adding a good number of players so that might not be an issue.

I recall the St. Joe's team of Marvin O'Connor's senior year not be quite as good as many predicted, though they were still good. They returned a lot that season. More close to home for Fordham fans was the team of Bryant Dunston's senior year. We returned virtually everyone from a team that tied for 4th in the A10, but we did not really add anyone and barely made it to the A10 tournament. I think we had a myriad of issues that year, but bottom line past performance is not an indication of future results.
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Old 05-16-2012, 10:30 AM   #64 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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A team returning a huge chunk of players is often times hard to predict. Some players do get complacent and they often need new players to push them to keep their spots. VCU seems to be adding a good number of players so that might not be an issue.

I recall the St. Joe's team of Marvin O'Connor's senior year not be quite as good as many predicted, though they were still good. They returned a lot that season. More close to home for Fordham fans was the team of Bryant Dunston's senior year. We returned virtually everyone from a team that tied for 4th in the A10, but we did not really add anyone and barely made it to the A10 tournament. I think we had a myriad of issues that year, but bottom line past performance is not an indication of future results.
I would argue that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it certainly is an indicator. That is what these pre-season rankings are built on. For freshmen, their HS performance is used as an indicator of their potential impact. It isn't everything, as some have more upside than others, which is partially based on their over time performance increases. Inexact science, but generally holds true. See every draft ever for examples for and against.

While it doesn't always hold true, in general, past performance is a pretty good indication of future performance.
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Old 05-16-2012, 10:44 AM   #65 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

No one disputes Xavier has incredible talent but losing Lyons was just a crusher in my view for this season. Again because ranked 7th or 8th in the A-10 this year is really not as big an insult as it seems but I think 8-8 in conference is very likely for Xavier given that they always seem to get tough pods and they are a pretty young team in a buzzsaw of a conference. Never would surprise me however if Xavier exceeded that.
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Old 05-16-2012, 10:49 AM   #66 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

St Joe has two players coming in and nobody knows what to expect from either one. One is really good but has had 2 serious knee injuries and he would add to our depth at guard and the other would be a 3 who would push Quarles and Noao (SOMETHING needs to happen at the 3). We only have one senior, so will the inconsistancy of last year go away?
Our non conf schedule does not look too good top to bottom for once so we should do well there. As far as expectations go, I remember that Marvin OConnor/Bill Phillips/Naim Crenshaw senior year all to well. Team literally divided into 3 factions and none of them could stand each other.
I like VCU a lot, but I agree with the poster who mentioned it is a LOT harder to win on the road in the A-10 vs the CAA (just factoring in the additional travel- you dont understand going to Olean til you been there!). VCU will also afford the league a chance to get more OOC scalps. Who do you guys have on your non-con schedule for next year?
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Old 05-16-2012, 11:25 AM   #67 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Jwetzel View Post
I would argue that past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but it certainly is an indicator. That is what these pre-season rankings are built on. For freshmen, their HS performance is used as an indicator of their potential impact. It isn't everything, as some have more upside than others, which is partially based on their over time performance increases. Inexact science, but generally holds true. See every draft ever for examples for and against.

While it doesn't always hold true, in general, past performance is a pretty good indication of future performance.
That last line was half in jest as it is often the disclaimer that you see with stocks, mutual funds, etc. No need to get hung up on one word, the rest of my post mentions how hard it is to predict.

Guarantee would have been a better word to use. Mea culpa.
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Old 05-16-2012, 12:51 PM   #68 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

Lest we forget what happened to UD the year after UD beat WVU in the first round of the NCAA and returned all but ONE player and we went 8-8 in A10 play. It's no guarantee. Every year is different with chemistry, injuries, sometimes the POD schedule, ect.
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Old 05-16-2012, 12:54 PM   #69 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by hawkhill View Post
VCU will also afford the league a chance to get more OOC scalps. Who do you guys have on your non-con schedule for next year?
We are in the Battle for Atlantis which is loaded this year. Duke, Mizzou, Stanford, Memphis, Minnesota, Louisville, Northern Iowa and us. My understanding is that we will play three of them but brackets haven't been released yet.

Coming to our place is Wichita State, Alabama, Western Kentucky and Fairleigh Dickenson. We had dates with GW and UR that I assume will be replaced with other OOC. I fully expect to pick up a game with odui and play them home and home like we did with UR.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with the OOC slate so far.
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Old 05-16-2012, 01:37 PM   #70 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Jwetzel View Post
We are in the Battle for Atlantis which is loaded this year. Duke, Mizzou, Stanford, Memphis, Minnesota, Louisville, Northern Iowa and us. My understanding is that we will play three of them but brackets haven't been released yet.

Coming to our place is Wichita State, Alabama, Western Kentucky and Fairleigh Dickenson. We had dates with GW and UR that I assume will be replaced with other OOC. I fully expect to pick up a game with odui and play them home and home like we did with UR.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with the OOC slate so far.
Got any room for NU? I have no idea what our schedule situation looks like but I'm sure we'd make room to play you guys this year, and every year hopefully. I enjoy those games very much.
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Old 05-16-2012, 01:46 PM   #71 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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That might have been the dumbest statement I've ever heard on this forum, which says quite a lot considering the fact that we have all these Muddies, Steves, and Temple fans.

St. Joes is not more talented. Just look across the roster. Chaz>Tay Jones. Jesse Morgan>Langston Galloway. I'll give ya CJ Aiken over any big man we have, though watch out for Maxie Esho and Cady Lalanne in the coming years. And then Quarles vs Putney isn't even close. Putney>>>>Quarles easily. AND we also have way more depth than them. UMass is no question most talented in the A-10.

St. Louis is far better coached. Not so sure about that. Majerus is a great coach, but you're not giving Kellogg enough credit. I have no idea why Kellogg still has this reputation of being a bad coach... What happened with that great Rick Majerus defense when we played them head-to-head? Oh yeah, our offense tore it apart. Overall the Billikens are better coached than UMass, but, as proven by the head-to-head, the gap isn't very far at all.

This is embarrassing. From an impartial observer you couldn't be more wrong. Kellogg was one season from being FIRED last year. Majerus is one of the best coaches in the country. Galloway could be first team all A10 next year, who is Jesse Morgan again? Chaz is great, Putney is very good and then there are a bunch of question marks. If the whole offseason is going to be you unrealistically hyping up this UMass team then that will get very old very fast.
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Old 05-16-2012, 01:58 PM   #72 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Originally Posted by Jwetzel View Post
We are in the Battle for Atlantis which is loaded this year. Duke, Mizzou, Stanford, Memphis, Minnesota, Louisville, Northern Iowa and us. My understanding is that we will play three of them but brackets haven't been released yet.

Coming to our place is Wichita State, Alabama, Western Kentucky and Fairleigh Dickenson. We had dates with GW and UR that I assume will be replaced with other OOC. I fully expect to pick up a game with odui and play them home and home like we did with UR.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with the OOC slate so far.
Just read an article indicating that due to the change in number of conference games, VCU has to find four games for next year. Creighton needs one game....will agree to home and home series (even neutral sites if totally necessary)...C'mon VCU, make it happen.
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Old 05-16-2012, 01:59 PM   #73 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

There's no question X would have been top 4 with Lyons in the fold. Without him they're still talented but unlike two years ago they have to replace the heart of the team as well as the production. When they lost Crawford/Love Tu was still back so people who knew the program knew they wouldn't drop too far.

- Other random notes.

- Really like that backup Bona center(the African kid). Could be a serious impact player after playing behind AN44.
- Don't sleep on LaSalle losing Earl Pettis. He played a major part of that team's success.
- Forgot about Scootie coming back for Temple. They could make a run for #1 again(what else is new) though they look very weak inside again.
- Big question for St. Joes is will that team improve like they've been doing or start believing their own hype. They were great this past year when flying under the radar and hit a major speed bump once people started talking about them nationally. The pressure will be raised this year from day 1.
- GW will have one of the most athletic frontcourts in the league with D Pellom, Armwood(Nova transfer) and Dwayne Smith. They will have a lot of struggles early with young point guards but will probably be a pain to play by February.
- Braswell is a POY candidate some nights and invisible others. With all the transfers again this offseason there's a troublesome culture surrounding that team. I live in DC and I heard a bunch of their players got in trouble in DC the night of their loss to GW. I don't know anything about the ins and outs of that program but Major has a lot of issues to deal with off the court down there.
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Old 05-16-2012, 02:02 PM   #74 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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This is embarrassing. From an impartial observer you couldn't be more wrong. Kellogg was one season from being FIRED last year. Majerus is one of the best coaches in the country. Galloway could be first team all A10 next year, who is Jesse Morgan again? Chaz is great, Putney is very good and then there are a bunch of question marks. If the whole offseason is going to be you unrealistically hyping up this UMass team then that will get very old very fast.
You couldn't be any more wrong in your statement. You have no idea what you're talking about. Yes, Kellogg was one season away from being fired, but it only got that close because the horrible situation he was in.
1. His assistant coach Vance Wahlberg was holding him back. He always preached Dribble Drive Motion and Kellogg stuck to it. He fired VW just before last year and implemented his own pressing style. That clearly payed dividends.
2. The reason that the DDR offense was ineffective? No quality point guard to run it. He has that now in future A-10 POY Chaz Williams. Thank god we don't use the DDR anymore, but even if we did, it might be more effective than before.

Make no mistake, Kellogg is a great coach.

RAMON Galloway has a shot at 1st team all A10 next year, but not Langston. Langston Galloway and Jesse Morgan both have a shot at 3rd team, but not anything more. There are too many good players in this league..
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Old 05-16-2012, 02:08 PM   #75 (permalink)
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re: 2012/13 Rankings, Including Bracketology

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Just read an article indicating that due to the change in number of conference games, VCU has to find four games for next year. Creighton needs one game....will agree to home and home series (even neutral sites if totally necessary)...C'mon VCU, make it happen.
Those would be some fun games in exciting arenas. Have your AD call our AD.
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