2012-2013 Xavier Musketeers - Page 17 - Basketball Forum : Professional and College Basketball Forums

MudFlap · 09-07-2012, 11:35 AM

The point being Archie isn't "above" recruiting guys like this. One vs Two (who are still playing), I guess is your argument? Rhoades Scholars they ain't.

xavierhoops · 09-07-2012, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer

Xavier is known to take a risk with kids who are right on the NCAA academic bubble, more so than almost any other school in the country.

That's a pretty bold statement to make. Not saying I agree or disagree, cause I have no facts to support an opinion. I'd be really interested to see any data or facts behind this. I'm guessing this is probably just another one of your major assumptions or conclusions based on little, weak and/or anecdotal evidence. (It was widely known throughout the NCAA coaching ranks that Chris Mack is disliked and difficult to work for... ring a bell with anyone??)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyer75

Well, I agree, not 100% relevant but I gotta think that IF this is true, XU changes their recruiting strategy a bit. This would what? 4 players in 4 years now? Lyons, Martin and then two in one class?

Really? You're suggesting Xavier change their recruiting strategy? Xavier is one of only four schools in the entire nation that has made at least the Sweet 16 in 4 out of the last 5 years and one of only 12 schools in the country to make the last 11 out of 12 NCAA tourneys... and you think they need to change their recruiting strategy? Wow.

MudFlap · 09-07-2012, 04:39 PM

Not that uncommon at all:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ncaa+basketball...neligible+2012

Flyer75 · 09-07-2012, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xavierhoops

That's a pretty bold statement to make. Not saying I agree or disagree, cause I have no facts to support an opinion. I'd be really interested to see any data or facts behind this. I'm guessing this is probably just another one of your major assumptions or conclusions based on little, weak and/or anecdotal evidence. (It was widely known throughout the NCAA coaching ranks that Chris Mack is disliked and difficult to work for... ring a bell with anyone??)

Really? You're suggesting Xavier change their recruiting strategy? Xavier is one of only four schools in the entire nation that has made at least the Sweet 16 in 4 out of the last 5 years and one of only 12 schools in the country to make the last 11 out of 12 NCAA tourneys... and you think they need to change their recruiting strategy? Wow.

Yup.....a lot of your fans said the exact same thing this morning.

Look, I think you are mininterpreting what I was saying. Obviously it has "worked" for XU. But obviously it has now caught up with XU. I have no problems with schools taking chances on prep school kids and it's worked for X because X has had the luxury of being able to afford a Lyons sitting or Martin sitting for one year while juniors and seniors lead the team. You can't deny that it (possibly) has caught up with X this year. Obviously when XU recruited Reynolds and Davis, they probably had no clue they would also be without Lyons and Wells, but it happened. That's really all I'm saying.

Under Mack (and possibly no direct fault of his), X has lost like 50% of their recruits for good or partially if this is report is true. Now that luxury is gone on taking at risk kids in the near future. Can you imagine losing 2/3 of next year's class??? I'm not saying XU can't still recruit 4 star players. I just think that taking the prep kids that might not qualify could be a problem for X. If you don't believe me, go read your own message board.

xavierhoops · 09-07-2012, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyer75

Obviously it has "worked" for XU. But obviously it has now caught up with XU. You can't deny that it (possibly) has caught up with X this year. Obviously when XU recruited Reynolds and Davis, they probably had no clue they would also be without Lyons and Wells, but it happened.

I've heard from the X-haters on here how Xavier was going to have a down year cause "you've got a lot of talent... but that talent is young. Freshmen are still freshmen." I think you were one of them, Flyer.

But now, that 2 may just be partial qualifiers it turns into X's recruiting strategy that has led them to 4/5 Sweet 16's and 11/12 NCAA's which only 3 and 11 other schools in the country can say, has "caught up" to X.

Since Dez has been gone, X wasn't gonna make the NCAA tourney with or without Reynolds and Davis. If those two aren't eligible this year... so what? X wasn't making the tourney anyway. But I guess it's that damn recruiting strategy catching up to X.

I'm gonna stick with X's recruiting strategy given the results over the past 15 years.

xavierhoops · 09-07-2012, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyer75

If you don't believe me, go read your own message board.

I put about as much stock in a Xavier message board as I do in UDPride.

Your often quoting of Xavier's message board as some sort of fact-based information source explains a lot.

Flyer75 · 09-07-2012, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xavierhoops

I've heard from the X-haters on here how Xavier was going to have a down year cause "you've got a lot of talent... but that talent is young. Freshmen are still freshmen." I think you were one of them, Flyer.

But now, that 2 may just be partial qualifiers it turns into X's recruiting strategy that has led them to 4/5 Sweet 16's and 11/12 NCAA's which only 3 and 11 other schools in the country can say, has "caught up" to X.

Since Dez has been gone, X wasn't gonna make the NCAA tourney with or without Reynolds and Davis. If those two aren't eligible this year... so what? X wasn't making the tourney anyway. But I guess it's that damn recruiting strategy catching up to X.

I'm gonna stick with X's recruiting strategy given the results over the past 15 years.

You are still mixing up past, present and future....oh well. My comment has nothing to do with past S16 appearances.

AdamtheFlyer · 09-07-2012, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xavierhoops

That's a pretty bold statement to make. Not saying I agree or disagree, cause I have no facts to support an opinion. I'd be really interested to see any data or facts behind this. I'm guessing this is probably just another one of your major assumptions or conclusions based on little, weak and/or anecdotal evidence. (It was widely known throughout the NCAA coaching ranks that Chris Mack is disliked and difficult to work for... ring a bell with anyone??)

The number of schools who consistently take academic risks is very, very small. Most schools that do are like St John's last year, where the cupboard is so bare they have to get good players and flip the coin. That's why prep schools became so popular. Some conferences outright ban partial qualifiers, so schools don't even let coin flip cases sign until spring, when they have a better idea of the odds.

I don't think anyone keeps detailed records of partial qualifiers, which is why I said "almost". I can't think of another school that consistently has kids on the academic bubble as often. If this rumor is true, that's what, 5 in 5 years? I don't know if that is the most, but I'd be shocked if there are more than a few even at that level.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, it's helped them get legit talent, it just is a thing. That's been their philosophy. It gives them an advantage in recruiting. You can sign elsewhere and get dumped if your scores aren't high enough, or come to Xavier and simply redshirt as a member of the family. It's a big reason why they got Chris Thomas to verbal. Most programs wouldn't touch a kid who's only chance at getting eligible was to get a GED two years early. They leave, Xavier stays. Who's he going to be loyal to at decision time?

Muddy Waters · 09-08-2012, 06:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamtheRaider

I can't think of another school that consistently has kids on the academic bubble as often.

If this rumor is true, that's what, 5 in 5 years ?

It's a lot more than five . . .

Q: What do Michael Chandler, Semaj Christon, Myles Davis, Jalen Reynolds, and Sim Bhullar all have in common ?

A: They were all HS Class of 2011 recruits who were supposed to be freshmen at Xavier during the 2011-12 season, but never made it to the starting blocks due to academic problems.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters

C # 4 Michael Chandler

Xavier Scores Top 50 Prospect Michael Chandler (Jerry Meyers, Rivals.com - October 24, 2010)

Michael Chandler's Not Headed to Xavier, will UConn Get Him? (NBC Sports - November 11, 2010)

One of the most interesting plot lines from a relatively boring early signing period is the saga of Michael Chandler.

Chandler - a borderline top 25 recruit who may not even be able to get eligible - gave his pledge to Xavier just three weeks ago.

But Brian Snow of Scout.com broke the news in his signing day blog that Chandler, a 6’10″ center, was reopening his recruitment and that UConn was the leader.

For Xavier, it is just another setback for a program that hasn’t been able to catch a break these last few weeks.

UCF Marquee Signee Michael Chandler Fails to Qualify (Orlando Sentinal - August, 29 2011)

Indianapolis center Michael Chandler, a four-star prospect did not qualify academically and is headed to prep school.

Chandler (6-10, 220) is an elite four-star prospect who was ranked the No. 47 senior in the country by Rivals.com.

He previously committed to Xavier before picking UCF.

Xavier Men's Basketball Signs Three Standouts (Xavier University - November 10, 2010)

CINCINNATI --- Xavier University head coach Chris Mack announced today that he has received signed National Letters of Intent from three prep standouts: Darwin "Dee" Davis, a 5-11, 150-pound point guard from Bloomington (Ind.) South High School, Jalen Reynolds, a 6-9, 215-pound forward from Livonia (Mich.) Stevenson High School and Dezmine Wells, a 6-4, 220-pound guard/forward from Hargrave Military Academy (Va.).

Xavier's recruiting class has been ranked among the top 25 in the nation by many experts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chalmers0 on May 2, 2011

Semaj Christon Interested in Xavier - Post # 5

Everything I've read has him as a 2012 as well, and even then I heard he may have trouble qualifying, just what I’ve heard, no idea of the truth behind it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blob on May 11, 2011

Dayton Recruiting - Post # 1514

Sounds like Semaj Christon's recruiting is really picking up.

I've heard he has academic concerns though, so who knows.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamtheRaider on May 11, 2011

Dayton Recruiting - Post # 1515

Christon is down to waiting on his last ACT test from what I hear.

If it doesn't work he'll have to go prep school.

I've seen the kid play, and I have some questions. Not sure if he's really that good.

I think it's a supply/demand thing.

He was not getting great looks until he was a senior and teams started running out of time to get a guard.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MuskieCinci on July 19, 2011

According to Brian Snow and confirmed by Myles Davis himself, Myles Davis has committed to Xavier.

Quote:

Originally Posted by xu95 on July 22, 2011

I had heard rumors that Jalen Reynolds was having problems adjusting, but I did not see this coming.

Thank God we got Walker or else we would have been short bodies at the 4/5 again.

I too wonder if this means Sim Bhullar will be coming in and redshirting ?

xu95

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on April 6, 2012,

Chris Mack's persistent targetting of prospects who ARE NOT 'college material' is well-documented:

Quote:

Originally Posted by X Factor on November 15, 2011

Muddy for the past 3-4 years has continually tried to knock Xavier for taking prep school kids (i.e. Justin Martin and Jay Canty).

Actually, it was the high school basketball coaches of Justin Martin and Jay Canty who "knocked" them:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on August 28, 2009

Re: Justin Martin commits to Xavier - Post # 61

Lawrence North's Martin Transfers to Prep School (Indianapolis Star - August 28, 2009)

Xavier recruit Justin Martin became the second highly-ranked basketball prospect in the past month to leave Lawrence North High School.

Lawrence North coach Jack Keefer said he doesn’t want to see Lawrence North’s academic reputation sullied by what he called “laziness” from two players.

"Maybe our level is higher than they wanted to work for,” Keefer said.

“We have the most wonderful tutoring center I could imagine. They had a tutor meeting with them every day.

Instead of being critical of the institution, maybe they should have hit the books harder.”

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on August 31, 2009

Re: Xavier recruiting - Post # 280

Update on Jay Canty formerly of Ragsdale HS (Greensboro Sports - August 1, 2009)

JAMESTOWN - Ragsdale basketball star Jay Canty will not return to the school for his senior year, head coach Craig Shoemaker confirmed on Friday.

“He won’t be back at Ragsdale,” Shoemaker said.

Shoemaker said he has not talked to Canty since the last day of school in June. The coach said he has seen him once, during the team’s first scrimmage of the summer.

Shoemaker said academics is the reason Canty believes he needs to attend a private school as a senior.

“He’s got to get working on his grades,” the coach said.

“He wants to attend a four-year school, and he’s got to improve his grades if he wants to do that.”

Chris Mack had expected HS Class of 2011 recruits Jalen Reynolds and Semaj Christon to be Xavier freshman this season, but due to poor grades, both Reynolds and Christon will be playing at Brewster Academy in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire this season.

Former HS Class of 2011 commitment Sim Bhullar also failed to meet academic requirements before decommitting from Xavier.

These five Xavier recruits (Michael Chandler, Semaj Christon, Myles Davis, Jalen Reynolds, and Sim Bhullar) were all "Einsteins" compared to Chris Thomas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on April 6, 2012

Chris Thomas Leaves South Kent (Hoop Dreams Magazine - January 2012)

Chris Thomas the nation's 13th ranked prospect in the ’13 class has left South Kent.

The Colorado native enrolled into South Kent at the beginning of the year looking to get a fresh start, as he has had his fair share of bad luck academically.

Chris Thomas has made his way around the globe and back again, only a junior but has attend Montbello High School, Princeton Day Academy, Westwind Prep Academy, and South Kent, and now where does he go?

Chris held offers from a vast number of schools – Arizona, Colorado, Memphis, Kansas, and Iowa State, just to name a few – but many schools have dropped of of the Thomas sweepstakes because of his decision-making in the classroom.

Adolescents make mistakes, thats a part of growing up, but making the same mistakes over and over declares you as a headache.

No coach wants to take on an issue that will come back to bite them in the butt, after all their jobs are on the line as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamtheRaider last night

You can sign elsewhere and get dumped if your scores aren't high enough, or come to Xavier and simply redshirt as a member of the family.

It's a big reason why they got Chris Thomas to verbal.

Most programs wouldn't touch a kid who's only chance at getting eligible was to get a GED two years early.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDIT: Relevant Articles Published After Posting Date of September 8, 2012

NCAA Denies Eligibility to Myles Davis (Jeff Goodman, CBS Sports - September 12, 2012)

Two Xavier Freshmen Ruled Ineligible (Shannon Russell, Cincinnati Enquirer - September 14, 2012)

A Few Thoughts on Reynolds, Davis (Shannon Russell, Cincinnati Enquirer - September 14, 2012)

Muddy Waters · 09-08-2012, 07:56 AM

Men's Basketball homepage (Xavier University) . . . Men's Basketball News (Xavier University)

Xavier Musketeers homepage (Cincinnati Enquirer)

MusketeerScoop homepage (Rivals.com)

Xavier Musketeers homepage (Yahoo!) . . . . . . . . . Xavier Musketeers homepage (ESPN)

Xavier Musketeers homepage (CBS Sports) . . . . . . Xavier Musketeers RPI Breakdown (CBS Sports)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2012-13 Xavier Men's Basketball Roster (Xavier University) . . . 2011-12 Xavier Musketeers Stats (Yahoo!)

Active Scholarshipped Players (8):

Code:

                                                     2011-12 Stats:    
     Active Player     Yr. Position   Ht.   Wt.    G   MPG   RPG  PPG

 1.  Redford, Brad     SR  Guard      6-1   182    35  11.1  0.7  3.2
 2.  Robinson, Jeff    SR  Forward    6-10  225    36  13.6  2.9  3.6   
 3.  Taylor, Travis    SR  Forward    6-8   220    36  14.7  3.7  4.5

 4.  Philmore, Isaiah  JR  Forward    6-8   230    ---  ---  ---  --- 

 5.  Davis, Dee        SO  Guard      6-0   160    36  11.1  0.6  1.9
 6.  Martin, Justin    SO  Forward    6-6   205    31  11.8  2.5  2.9
 
 7.  Christon, Semaj   FR  Guard      6-3   182    ---  ---  ---  --- 
 8.  Farr, James       FR  Forward    6-9   222    ---  ---  ---  ---

Active Non-Scholarshipped Players (3):

Code:

                                                     2011-12 Stats:
   Walk-on Player      Yr. Position   Ht.   Wt.    G   MPG   RPG  PPG
 
1. Amos, Landen        JR  Guard      6-3   180    6   0.8   0.2  0.0
2. Dougan, Greg        JR  Guard      6-4   170    6   0.7   0.2  0.0
3. Stenger, Erik       JR  Forward    6-8   205    0   0.0   0.0  0.0

Players Who Are Not Eligible for the 2012-13 Season (3):

Code:

                                                     2011-12 Stats:    
   Ineligible Player  Yr. Position   Ht.   Wt.    G   MPG   RPG  PPG

1. Stainbrook, Matt   JR  Center     6-9   275    33  26.9  6.8  11.4 * (Scholarshipped player) 
2. Davis, Myles       FR  Guard      6-2   200    --  ----  ---  ----   (Non-scholarshipped player) 
3. Reynolds, Jalen    FR  Forward    6-9   220    --  ----  ---  ----   (Non-scholarshipped player)

* At Western Michigan University

Unused Basketball Scholarships for the 2012-13 Season: (4).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2012-13 Xavier Roster and Depth Chart (Position: starter, first off the bench at each position.)

C: Jeff Robinson, James Farr.

PF: Isaiah Philmore, Travis Taylor.

SF: Justin Martin.

SG: Brad Redford.

PG: Semaj Christon, Dee Davis.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xavier Musketeers 2012-13 Schedule & Results (Xavier University)

Code:

Date       Opponent              Location
 
11/09/12   Fairleigh Dickinson   Cincinnati, Ohio   
11/13/12   Butler                Cincinnati, Ohio               
11/17/12   Robert Morris         Cincinnati, Ohio
         
11/22/12   Anaheim Classic       Anaheim, Calif. 
11/23/12   Anaheim Classic       Anaheim, Calif.  
11/25/12   Anaheim Classic       Anaheim, Calif.

12/01/12   @ Purdue              West Lafayette, Ind.  
12/06/12   Vanderbilt            Cincinnati, Ohio 
12/09/12   Kent State            Cincinnati, Ohio  
12/19/12   Cincinnati            Cincinnati, Ohio 
12/22/12   Wofford               Cincinnati, Ohio  
12/29/12   @ Tennessee           Knoxville, Tenn.

Code:

01/02/13   @ Wake Forest         Winston Salem, NC  
01/10/13   Temple                Cincinnati, Ohio  
01/12/13   George Washington     Cincinnati, Ohio 
01/16/13   @ St. Bonaventure     Olean, NY  
01/19/13   La Salle              Cincinnati, Ohio  
01/23/13   @ Charlotte           Charlotte, NC  
01/26/13   @ Saint Joseph's      Philadelphia, PA 
01/30/13   Dayton                Cincinnati, Ohio 

02/02/13   @ Richmond            Richmond, Va.  
02/09/13   @ Duquesne            Pittsburgh, PA  
02/13/13   Fordham               Cincinnati, Ohio  
02/16/13   @ Dayton              Dayton, OH 
02/20/13   @ Rhode Island        Kingston, RI  
02/23/13   VCU                   Cincinnati, Ohio 
02/26/13   Memphis               Cincinnati, Ohio 

03/02/13   Massachusetts         Cincinnati, Ohio 
03/06/13   Saint Louis           Cincinnati, Ohio 
03/09/13   @ Butler              Indianapolis, IN

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on September 17, 2012

Xavier Musketeers 2012-13 Non-Conference Schedule (Xavier University)

Code:

                                                      Final 2012    Predicted              
Date       Opponent              Location             RPI Ranking     Result
 
11/09/12   Fairleigh Dickinson   Cincinnati, Ohio       # 330          WIN 
11/13/12   Butler                Cincinnati, Ohio       # 106          LOSS          
11/17/12   Robert Morris         Cincinnati, Ohio       #  97          LOSS 

Anaheim Classic                  Anaheim, Calif. 
     
11/22/12  Pacific                Anaheim, Calif.        # 289          WIN   
11/23/12  Drexel or St. Mary's   Anaheim, Calif.     # 66 or # 30      LOSS  
11/25/12  Rice or Drake*         Anaheim, Calif.                       WIN                    

* Possible Round 3 Opponents:    Rice                   # 164 
                                 Georgia Tech           # 196
                                 Drake                  # 142
                                 California             #  45

12/01/12   @ Purdue              West Lafayette, Ind.   #  43          LOSS
12/06/12   Vanderbilt            Cincinnati, Ohio       #  17          LOSS 
12/09/12   Kent State            Cincinnati, Ohio       # 114          LOSS  
12/19/12   Cincinnati            Cincinnati, Ohio       #  35          LOSS 
12/22/12   Wofford               Cincinnati, Ohio       # 178          WIN  
12/29/12   @ Tennessee           Knoxville, Tenn        #  90          LOSS

01/02/13   @ Wake Forest         Winston Salem, NC      # 182          LOSS  

02/26/13   Memphis               Cincinnati, Ohio       #  20          LOSS

Muddy's Observations:

(1) If the predictions above are correct, Xavier's Non-conference W-L Record will be 4-10.

(2) If Xavier beats Robert Morris or Kent State, that improves to 5-9.

(3) If Xavier beats Robert Morris and Kent State, that improves to 6-8.

(4) It is assumed that Georgia Tech will beat Rice in the First Round at Anaheim.

(5) It is assumed that California will beat Drake in the First Round at Anaheim.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on September 17, 2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on September 17, 2012

Muddy’s Predictions – Rev. 1 – September 17, 2012

Predictions of the outcomes of A10 Conference games are necessarily based on a preconceived perception of a Predicted Order of Finish, taking into consideration the location of the game (home, neutral or away) and factoring in the match-ups (strengths and weaknesses at each position) of the individual players on the teams concerned.

For the purpose of predicting the Flyers’ individual A10 game results, I will be assuming the following:

Atlantic 10 Predicted Order of Finish - Rev. 1:

1. Virginia Commonwealth
2. Dayton
3. St. Joseph's
4. Saint Louis
5. UMass
6. Butler
7. Temple
8. Richmond
9. La Salle
10. St. Bonaventure
11. George Washington
12. Rhode Island

13. Xavier
14. Charlotte
15. Fordham
16. Duquesne

Xavier Musketeers 2012-13 A10 Conference Schedule (Xavier University)

Code:

                                                       Predicted              
Date       Opponent              Location                Result
 
01/10/13   Temple                Cincinnati, Ohio        LOSS                        
01/12/13   George Washington     Cincinnati, Ohio        WIN
01/16/13   @ St. Bonaventure     Olean, NY               LOSS  
01/19/13   La Salle              Cincinnati, Ohio        WIN  
01/23/13   @ Charlotte           Charlotte, NC           LOSS
01/26/13   @ Saint Joseph's      Philadelphia, PA        LOSS  
01/30/13   Dayton                Cincinnati, Ohio        LOSS 

02/02/13   @ Richmond            Richmond, Va.           LOSS 
02/09/13   @ Duquesne            Pittsburgh, PA          WIN 
02/13/13   Fordham               Cincinnati, Ohio        WIN
02/16/13   @ Dayton              Dayton, OH              LOSS
02/20/13   @ Rhode Island        Kingston, RI            LOSS
02/23/13   VCU                   Cincinnati, Ohio        LOSS

03/02/13   Massachusetts         Cincinnati, Ohio        LOSS
03/06/13   Saint Louis           Cincinnati, Ohio        LOSS
03/09/13   @ Butler              Indianapolis, IN        LOSS

Muddy's Observation: If the predictions above are correct, Xavier's Atlantic 10 Conference W-L Record will be 4-12.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on August 21, 2012

Expulsion of Dezmine Wells Suggests Xavier Is Headed for a Rebuilding Year (Jeff Eisenberg, The Dagger - August 21, 2012)

The leading returning scorer for Xavier now is 6-foot-8 forward Travis Taylor, a former Monmouth transfer who averaged 4.5 points per game off the bench last season.

Highly touted freshman point guard Semaj Christon will certainly help, as will shooting guard Myles Davis, but that's not nearly enough to contend with the likes of VCU, Saint Louis, Butler, Temple, and Saint Joseph's in the upper echelon of the Atlantic 10.

Instead, 2012-13 looks like a rebuilding year for Xavier, a rarity for a program that has been as consistent as any non-power six team in the nation the past decade.

It's up to coach Chris Mack to ensure that this is an aberration rather than the start of a downward trend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on September 13, 2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by stophorseabuse on September 13, 2012

I am going to come out and say I think X wins fewer than 10 games total this year.

I think it will be the most brutal year I have witnessed as an X fan.

I see us getting crushed by our rivals, and missing Brooklyn.

Code:

                            Overall  Conf. 
Yr.  Season    Xavier Coach   W-L     W-L   Regular Season Finish ==> Post-Season
  
(1)  2009–10   Chris Mack    26–9    14–2   T-1st ==> NCAA Sweet Sixteen. 
(2)  2010–11   Chris Mack    24–8    15–1   1st ==> NCAA First Round. 
(3)  2011-12   Chris Mack    23-13   10-6   3rd ==> NCAA Sweet Sixteen.
(4)  2012-13   Chris Mack    8-22?   4-12?

Ever hear of Jim O'Brien ?

He inherited an NCAA Tournament team from his predecessor, Don Donoher:

Code:

                            Overall  Conf. 
Yr.  Season    Dayton Coach   W-L     W-L   Post-Season

(1)  1989-90   Jim O'Brien   22-10   10-4   Conference Tournament Champion ==> NCAA 2nd Round.  
(2)  1990-91   Jim O'Brien   14-15    8-6   
(3)  1991-92   Jim O'Brien   15-15    5-5   
(4)  1992-93   Jim O'Brien    4-26    3-11   
(5)  1993-94   Jim O'Brien    6-21    1-11  March, 1994 ==> FIRED !

A college head coach's fourth season as head coach is the season that his chickens come home to roost.

Xavier Basketball (Wikipedia)

Muddy's Observations:

(1) Xavier has not had an overall losing record since the 1995-96 season (13-15; Xavier's first season in the Atlantic 10).

(2) Xavier has never had a losing record in Atlantic 10 Conference play.

(3) Xavier's worst record in Atlantic 10 Conference play was 8-8 (in 1995-96 and again in 2005-06).

(4) In 2012-13, the Musketeers are looking at their first-ever losing record in Atlantic 10 Conference play.

(5) In 2012-13, the Musketeers are looking at their first overall losing record since the 1995-96 season.

(6) In 2012-13, the Musketeers are looking at their first 20+ loss season since the 1981-82 season (8-20).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muskeagle on September 18, 2012

We might not win as many games (big understatement, I realize), but I think this team will prove to be better than people think it will be.

20 game winner? No. But not a 20 game loser either.

I think a little above .500. 14-17 wins kind of range.

And a LOT to be excited about for next year, too.

Fourteen wins looks overly optimistic to me with only 8 (mostly inexperienced) scholarshipped players.

The biggest dangers to Chris Mack's future at Xavier, which will be caused by an unexpectedly disastrous 1012-13 season, are its probable effects on present and committed players, and on Xavier's future recruiting success.

Xavier Musketeers 2013-14 Roster:

Code:

                                                     2011-12 Stats:    
    Player            Yr. Position   Ht.   Wt.    G   MPG   RPG  PPG

 1. Philmore, Isaiah  SR  Forward    6-8   230    ---  ---  ---  --- 

 2. Davis, Dee        JR  Guard      6-0   160    36  11.1  0.6  1.9
 3. Martin, Justin    JR  Forward    6-6   205    31  11.8  2.5  2.9
 4. Stainbrook, Matt  JR  Center     6-9   275    33  26.9  6.8  11.4 *
 
 5. Christon, Semaj   SO  Guard      6-3   182    ---  ---  ---  --- 
 6. Farr, James       SO  Forward    6-9   222    ---  ---  ---  --- 
 
 7. Davis, Myles      FR  Guard      6-2   200    --  ----  ---  ----   
 8. Reynolds, Jalen   FR  Forward    6-9   220    --  ----  ---  ----   
 9. Thomas, Chris     FR  Guard      6-5   180    --  ----  ---  ----     

* At Western Michigan University

Scholarships available for HS Class of 2013 recruits or transfers: 4.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on August 29, 2012

The loss of all five starters from last season's team, coupled with an obvious lack of depth and very difficult schedule this season means that Xavier could well have a losing season in 2012-13.

That very real possibility brings with it a major headache for Chris Mack:

Athlete Movement in Division I Basketball Raising 'Alarm' (USA Today - June 24, 2012)

Of about 1,050 freshman men's basketball athletes at 340 D-I schools in their first two years of college:

• Only 60% continue into their third year at their original institution.

• Less than 2% leave early to play pro basketball.

• The other 38% leave. Most transfer, some drop out completely, a few others leave for undocumented professional opportunities.

NCAA president Mark Emmert said: "40% of men's basketball student-athletes aren't at their original school by the end of their sophomore year because they've transferred, they've dropped out, they've moved on."

Coaches, concerned about the rate of transfers, have met with Emmert to ask him to slow the tide.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The members of Xavier's highly-touted freshman class all committed to a 2012-13 Xavier team that was to be led by returning starters Mark Lyons and Dez Wells.

Chris Mack undoubtedly sold Xavier to all four of them on the idea that if they committed to Xavier, they would be playing in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, and quite possibly, on another Sweet 16 team.

How do you think Semaj Christon and others will feel in March 2013 when Xavier doesn't even get a sniff by the NIT Selection Committee ?

With a PG # 3 ranking, Semaj Christon is already thinking 'NBA' and the 2012-13 season will quite likely see the value of his stock fall as Xavier endures their worst season in years.

But a good sophomore year at a 'name' BCS-conference school (after sitting out the 2013-14 season) would significantly boost Christon's stock for the 2015 NBA Draft.

A player like Christon can't afford to wait around for Xavier to rebuild, and he won't.

The big question is, how many present Musketeers will follow him ?

It’s already too late in the 2012-13 academic year for Xavier to acquire any high-quality Division I transfers who will be eligible to play in the 2013-14 season.

Consequently, if Chris Mack's 4 available scholarships for the 2013-14 season are all awarded to HS Class of 2013 prospects, Mack will have 7 freshman on next season's roster.

As it is highly unlikely that Mack will want that many inexperienced freshman in one class, he will be forced to take his chances in the JUCO Jackpot, which rarely matches expectations.

In seasons gone by, Sean Miller brought in a steady influx of high-quality Division I transfers such as Brian Thornton (Vanderbilt), Drew Lavender (Oklahoma), C.J. Anderson, Jamel McLean, Jordan Crawford (Indiana), and Tu Holloway (Indiana), who were largely responsible for Xavier’s considerable success during the past six seasons:

Code:

                      Overall  Conf.
Year     Head Coach     W-L     W-L   A10 Regular Season      Postseason
 
2011–12  Chris Mack    21-12   10-6   T-Third in A–10         NCAA Sweet 16  
2010–11  Chris Mack    24–8    15–1   First in A–10           NCAA First Round  
2009–10  Chris Mack    26–9    14–2   T–First in A–10         NCAA Sweet 16  

2008–09  Sean Miller   27–8    12–4   First in A–10           NCAA Sweet 16  
2007–08  Sean Miller   30–7    14–2   First in A–10           NCAA Elite Eight  
2006–07  Sean Miller   25–9    13–3   T–First in A–10         NCAA Second Round
 
2005–06  Sean Miller   21–11    8–8   T–Seventh in A–10       NCAA First Round  
2004–05  Sean Miller   17–12   10–6   T–Second in A–10 West   None.

Muddy's Observation: the 'slide' at Xavier has already begun:

2007–08 - Sean Miller - 30 wins
2008–09 - Sean Miller - 27 wins
2009–10 - Chris Mack - 26 wins
2010–11 - Chris Mack - 24 wins
2011–12 - Chris Mack - 21 Wins
2012–13 - Chris Mack - 8 wins?

So far, Chris Mack has brought in Travis Taylor (Monmouth), Isaiah Philmore (Towson), Matt Stainbrook (Western Michigan), and JUCO Chris Cantino, who may or may not make an impact at Xavier.

Bottom Line: Xavier’s Roster for the 2013-14 season looks unstable at best, and the possible transfer of players from Xavier following a disastrous 2012-13 season could leave Xavier worse off in 2013-14 than in 2012-13.

Think "Jim O’Brien".

Muddy Waters · 09-08-2012, 09:09 AM

ORIGINAL UNEDITED POST # 250:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters

Chris Cantino - Change of Plans (Rivals.com / JucoJunction - August 18, 2012)

"I recently visited Xavier and I will be going there now," said Chris Cantino.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on August 25, 2012

Juco Chris Cantino Picks Xavier (On the Trail, ESPN - August 21, 2012)

Small forward Chris Cantino (Philadelphia, Pa./Palm Beach C.C.) has committed to Xavier.

His former coach at Rise Academy, Sam Rines, posted the following to his Twitter account:

"Chris Cantino has decided to attend Xavier. He committed to Iona at first but it was without moms blessing. Mom wanted Chris away so......"

The 6-foot-7, 220-pounder was rated as a two-star coming out of Rise Academy in 2010.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chris Cantino (Shannon Russell, Cincinnati Enquirer - August 21, 2012 at 7:58 PM)

There have been multiple reports today saying Xavier landed 6-foot-7 junior college small forward Chris Cantino. Cantino comes from Palm Beach State in Florida.

Sam Rines, his prep school coach at Rise Academy, Tweeted this: "Chris Cantino has decided to attend Xavier. He committed to Iona at first but it was without moms blessing. Mom wanted Chris away so......"

The Musketeers could take all the help they can get at this point.

With Dez Wells gone - and Kenny Frease, Mark Lyons, and Tu Holloway - so are 52.6 of the team’s average 70.6 points from last year.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It has now been a week since Chris Cantino publicly committed to Xavier, but there has been no mention of him by Xavier University.

Academic clearing problems ?

Re: Is Cantino gone? (Iona Hoops Message Board - Reply #6 on August 16, 2012)

Word was that Cantino was a head case, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised.

If this is how he handles things, his departure now is probably for the best. For Iona at least.

Let him go screw up at Xavier.

So Adam, to answer your question - in the last five years, Xavier has had at least eleven recruits with academic problems:

(1) Charles Bronson, (2) Mark Lyons, (3) Justin Martin, (4) Jay Canty, (5) Michael Chandler, (6) Semaj Christon, (7) Myles Davis, (8) Jalen Reynolds, (9) Sim Bhullar, (10) Chris Thomas, and (11) Chris Cantino.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORIGINAL UNEDITED POST # 251:

Quote:

Originally Posted by xavierhoops - Post # 245

Since Dez has gone, X wasn't gonna make the NCAA tourney with or without Reynolds and Davis.

If those two aren't eligible this year . . . so what?

I'll let you do the math:

Possible 2012-13 Xavier Musketeers Roster (Position: starter, first off the bench at each position.)

C: Jeff Robinson, James Farr.

PF: Isaiah Philmore, Travis Taylor.

SF: Justin Martin.

SG: Brad Redford.

PG: Semaj Christon, Dee Davis.

Looks a bit thin on the wings.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Xavier Announces Hoops Schedule (Cincinnati Enquirer Blog - September 6, 2012)

Xavier has 22 teams on its 2012-13 schedule that participated in 2012 postseason action, including 10 in the NCAA Tournament.

"This is a great schedule for our fans and for our team," said Xavier Athletic Director Mike Bobinski.

The television schedule announced today includes:

• eight games on the ESPN family of networks,

• seven games on the CBS Sports Network

• and seven games that will be CBS Sports Network Regional broadcasts.

• The remaining 10 games of the 30-game regular season package will be covered by National and Regional television, including the package on FOX Sports Ohio, the Television Home of Xavier Basketball.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The loss of Dez Wells and possible loss of Jalen Reynolds and Myles Davis would mean that the Musketeers' walk-ons would be Xavier's "first off the bench" reserves at the wing positions, and they would be playing against 4-Star reserves on BCS-conference teams in Nationally-televised games.

That could lead to some humiliating blow-outs of Xavier on National TV.

Also, by the last three weeks of the A10 regular season, Xavier's players may be feeling a bit worn out when this hits them:

Saturday, February 16 - at Dayton

Wednesday, February 20 - at Rhode Island

Saturday, February 23 - VCU

Tuesday, February 26 - Memphis

Saturday, March 2 - Massachusetts

Wednesday, March 6 - Saint Louis

Saturday, March 9 - at Butler

paulxu · 09-08-2012, 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters

So Adam, to answer your question - in the last five years, Xavier has had at least eleven recruits with academinc problems:

I don't want to leave you wondering Adam, so I'll help you by pointing out (again) that "in the last five years" Xavier is one of only 4 schools to go to 4 sweet 16's.

And yes, you're welcome for all the NCAA credits the Dayton Criers will enjoy as a result of Xavier's success.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Muddy Waters

I'll let you do the math:

Xavier has 22 teams on its 2012-13 schedule that participated in 2012 postseason action, including 10 in the NCAA Tournament.

"This is a great schedule for our fans and for our team," said Xavier Athletic Director Mike Bobinski.

The television schedule announced today includes:

• eight games on the ESPN family of networks,

• seven games on the CBS Sports Network

• and seven games that will be CBS Sports Network Regional broadcasts.

• The remaining 10 games of the 30-game regular season package will be covered by National and Regional television, including the package on FOX Sports Ohio, the Television Home of Xavier Basketball.

You are also welcome for all the national publicity we are providing our league.

As an aside...what happened to you guy's signature lines?
Did you realize they might be a little embarrassing?

Muddy Waters · 09-08-2012, 12:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xavierhoops last night - Post # 242

It was widely known throughout the NCAA coaching ranks that Chris Mack is disliked . . .

Indeed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by spidermon on August 27, 2010

Re: "Those guys (XU) have made an enemy here" - Post # 1

Joyce II told the paper that he will no longer allow Xavier to recruit any of his players:

http://www.zagsblog.com/2010/08/27/s...ng/#more-38817

Quote:

What’s unique about this case is that St. Vincent-St. Mary coach Dru Joyce II specifically called out Xavier University in the Akron Beacon Journal story, maintaining that Brewster recruited Sampson with Xavier’s help.

"They want to pull kids away so they can have more control," Joyce II told the Beacon Journal.

Joyce II told the paper that he will no longer allow Xavier to recruit any of his players.

"Those guys have made an enemy here," he said.

xavierhoops · 09-08-2012, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyer75

You are still mixing up past, present and future....oh well. My comment has nothing to do with past S16 appearances.

You said they should change their recruiting strategy if 2 frosh this year are not eligible. As you pointed out, it's been happenning for years. For years, we've made Sweet 16's.

Given the sustained, consistent success of X over the last 15 years, I'm not sure changing their recruiting strategy because of one potential down year is the best course going forward.

ace93 · 09-08-2012, 02:49 PM

I'm still cracking up at the quotes from the Iona board, as if that carries any weight. That's their M.O., they lose a guy to someone else, they bring up an issue (sometimes unsubstantiated) in order to make themselves feel better. In their defense, they don't have exclusive rights to that approach.

09-07-2012, 11:35 AM	#241 (permalink)
MudFlap Star Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Victory Parkway Xavier University Posts: 3,607 Rep Power: 150436	Re: 2012-2013 Xavier Musketeers The point being Archie isn't "above" recruiting guys like this. One vs Two (who are still playing), I guess is your argument? Rhoades Scholars they ain't.

09-07-2012, 04:39 PM	#243 (permalink)
MudFlap Star Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Victory Parkway Xavier University Posts: 3,607 Rep Power: 150436	Re: 2012-2013 Xavier Musketeers Not that uncommon at all: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ncaa+basketball...neligible+2012

09-08-2012, 02:49 PM	#255 (permalink)
ace93 Veteran Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,204 Rep Power: 80754	Re: 2012-2013 Xavier Musketeers I'm still cracking up at the quotes from the Iona board, as if that carries any weight. That's their M.O., they lose a guy to someone else, they bring up an issue (sometimes unsubstantiated) in order to make themselves feel better. In their defense, they don't have exclusive rights to that approach.

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