SpiderDave19

Careful, some of those guys are a little ticklish.

cpico

Obviously the top 144 won't take the Xavier situation into account because I'm sure the write ups were completed already.

Based on the information we now have for the upcoming season, Xavier will not be in the top 7 of the league (St. Louis, VCU, St. Joe's, Temple, La Salle, UMASS, and Butler on paper are all ahead of Xavier). Also, Richmond and Dayton could make a real good argument as well (and maybe a couple others). Xavier was going to take a step back anyway with all they lost, but now they will be very fortunate to even make the top 8 in the league this upcoming season after losing Wells. I know the Xavier freshman are highly touted, but unless you're at a Kentucky level it is very difficult to win with freshman. Like most freshman, they will have their ups and downs.

A10fan2

The only freshman that I think HAS to step up and play well is Semaj. If Holloway could do it why can't Semaj who is even more highly touted. If Reynolds, Farr, or Davis turn out to be productive their first years it's just icing. The pressure to produce is going to be on Martin, Philmore, Robinson, Redford, and DDavis. X will figure it out in the OOC and I look for them to hold their own again come conference play.

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Muddy's from 2009

He has since made the same "prediction" this year. CLASSIC

antboy

It might happen, Xavier has not had many down years recently. However, Holloway had quite a bit more experienced talent around him his freshman year, including a lot more talented scorers (e.g. BJ Raymond and Derrick Brown) and it was still somewhat up-and-down for him. If Christon is a focal point, he'll have to do better than Holloway did for Xavier to continue its success, or else get more help than expected from the other guys.

A10fan2

I really dont think the offense will be an issue. Im more concerned with defense.

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Muddy's from 2009

He has since made the same "prediction" this year. CLASSIC

AdamtheFlyer

I think the opposite. I think the defense will be ok, but the offense will struggle. There is not a single player left who has proven he can go out and score against high level college players on a nightly basis. I also see only one player capable of creating for others, and he is a true freshman.

Mack will have enough athletes on hand to form a respectable defense. I think the offense could really struggle to score more than the mid 60s against quality teams.

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Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

Title_BU

accidentally posted in wring thread

ItsyBitsySpiderII

Richmond isn't finishing 12th or lower. No way

vcurams05

Isn't Xavier losing almost 60 points a game from last year? I know they have bench talent and a Top 25 recruiting class but that is one hell of a load to take on for an inexperienced group.

A10fan2

They've done the same thing in the past. Love was once the leading returning scorer at 6.7/game. Somehow to Muddy's dismay they won the league again. Not saying that will happen but I just don't think they will struggle on offense like some here think.

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Muddy's from 2009

He has since made the same "prediction" this year. CLASSIC

Title_BU

The A-10 added two of the top 30 defensive efficiency % teams in the country since last season. Everyone is going to struggle more on offense.

vcurams05

Good point. I'm not sure many teams realize what VCU does defensively, until you see it in person its not the same. Its relentless, physical in your face ball hawking. We don't try to turn you over we make you turn it over. I think by the end of the year regardless of results the A-10 will have a new respect for how hard we play. We won't win them all but you can bet we'll play harder than every team every night.

Butler just grinds you into the floor. Its kinda like the horse fly that keeps biting you on the leg.

e-parade

At the same time, it's important to note that the Opponent's Offense for VCU ranked 198th, and for Butler the rank was 148th.

Whereas St. Louis ranked #10 in defense and 69th for Opponent's Offense.


Granted, the league really struggled against St. Louis as a whole for finding scoring, but OOC teams averaged 53 points against them, whereas in conference teams averaged 68 points against them.

So while VCU and Butler had great defenses, it may have been inflated slightly due to the weaker offenses they faced.


So yes, offensive output will probably go down, but not as much as the straight up defensive rankings would make you think. The lowest opponents offensive rank for the A10 was 91 last year, and that was La Salle. Whereas the highest Offensive rank for teams in either the Horizon or CAA was 102nd...lower than the lowest A10. You guys will more than likely be ranked lower defensively this year than last year, based solely on the upgrade in offenses you're seeing (though I'm not saying you'll be terrible or even below average, you'll probably still end up better than most teams in the A10 for defense)



And yes, I realize that it was "Adjusted Defense" you were looking at there, but even that doesn't tell the entire story sometimes.

Title_BU

In the 2010 NCAA Tournament, Butler was the first team to ever keep the 5 teams they faced before the championship under 60. Just click on the years, Butler has an elite defense virtually every year. Sometimes like 2010, really elite. VCU isn't different.

And yes, you already touched on the fact those metrics are SOS adjusted.

Butler and VCU are difficult to score on for anyone, ergo the post

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It's a program thing. Some places just defend, it's in who they recruit, their coaching, and their system.

DistrictBaller

Yeah, I think Indiana was better than anyone in the A-10 last year (I think you can make an argument that Saint Louis has a case though), and they had PLENTY of problems with our defense the entire game. That's a team that should be top 5 in the preseason this year and we were leading the entire game going into the final minutes before losing by a bucket.

Butler has had their reputation much longer than VCU when it comes to that end of the court and they've done it against competition and on stages the rest of the A-10 only wishes it could get to at this point, us included.

Our defenses are very strong by any standard, and I think everyone will see that this year. I get the whole 'you played in weaker conferences' thing, but we've played plenty of superior competition and done well for ourselves with our defenses giving people fits no matter what the name on the front of the jersey.

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"We will wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and plan of attack."
- VCU Head Coach Shaka Smart