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Old 08-28-2012, 04:15 PM   #61 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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In the 2010 NCAA Tournament, Butler was the first team to ever keep the 5 teams they faced before the championship under 60. Just click on the years, Butler has an elite defense virtually every year. Sometimes like 2010, really elite. VCU isn't different.

And yes, you already touched on the fact those metrics are SOS adjusted.

Butler and VCU are difficult to score on for anyone, ergo the post

-----
It's a program thing. Some places just defend, it's in who they recruit, their coaching, and their system.
I'm not arguing against that point, just that while your defense may be better than what we're used to (though not as good as our top team from last season), the offenses you'll be facing regularly are also better than what the teams you're used to playing are.

My point: yeah, your defenses will bring the average score per game down, but not by much, and maybe not even by a noticeable value. The number 10 team in the country last year for defense gave up 68 points per game to the A10. That's 8 more points per game than VCU gave up all season, and 10 more than Butler, both of whom were ranked lower than St. Louis.

A10 average was 70 points per game as a conference. With you guys in the league, it'll probably be about the same.


Again, not saying you're going to have a bad defense now that you're in the A10, I think you'll be in the top of the conference (since like you've stated, you're generally nationally ranked for defense, and it's well deserved) - I just don't think scoring is going to be hard to come by in the league all of a sudden now, since our top team managed only to lower the team average by 2 points per game.


Edit: a main problem is that some of our teams (like my own) are terribly inefficient on offense, yet score at incredible rates (#23 in the nation in scoring, #1 in the conference...#9 in the conference in efficiency...that's not even top half). So while the scores may still be high, it looks good for the other team's defensive efficiency.

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Old 08-28-2012, 04:43 PM   #62 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

I'm not a huge fan of talking about what my team is going to do, although it's easy to fall prey to it. I guess we'll all see how it goes.

I'm confident that we'll more than hold our own on the defensive end, but I know we're stepping up in competition level against more able offenses day-in and day-out. It may be harder to get up against A-10 teams like we'd do in NCAA tournament games with high stakes, and I'm willing to concede that. I'm sure playing at certain road venues against new personnel also present new challenges for both VCU and Butler.

We'll see how it goes, but I've seen what our defense has done to BCS teams, CAA teams, and low-major teams alike, and it's not pretty. Those guys play HARD. They led the country in steals and turnover margin for a reason, and it wasn't because we played in the CAA.
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Old 08-28-2012, 05:45 PM   #63 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

I'm more confident of what VCU will do defensively because I've watched them in-person for a few years. Butler, on the other hand, I'm only familiar with in the tournament. I prefer VCU's style - Butler's defense reminds me of some of Bruiser's teams - just disciplined, make it very hard to do what you want to do, defense. I'm confident that both Butler and VCU will do well in the A10 but I suspect e-parade is right - their defensive numbers will look worse than they did last year.
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Old 08-28-2012, 06:12 PM   #64 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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I'm not a huge fan of talking about what my team is going to do, although it's easy to fall prey to it. I guess we'll all see how it goes.

I'm confident that we'll more than hold our own on the defensive end, but I know we're stepping up in competition level against more able offenses day-in and day-out. It may be harder to get up against A-10 teams like we'd do in NCAA tournament games with high stakes, and I'm willing to concede that. I'm sure playing at certain road venues against new personnel also present new challenges for both VCU and Butler.

We'll see how it goes, but I've seen what our defense has done to BCS teams, CAA teams, and low-major teams alike, and it's not pretty. Those guys play HARD. They led the country in steals and turnover margin for a reason, and it wasn't because we played in the CAA.
Oh I have confidence that you guys will do great in the A10 - this shouldn't be one of those "rough adjustments". Yeah, I feel your defensive numbers will be "worse" next year...but that's very relative. Already consistently being one of the top teams in the country on defense means that "getting worse" on defense is a very easy thing to do. In all likelihood, at worst you'll be a top 5 team in the league on defense, but more likely closer to the top.

All I was pointing out was that "the scoring will go down" might not be an accurate statement. It was more a comment on raw defensive numbers, and not defensive efficiency numbers that make defenses great.
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Old 09-01-2012, 06:12 PM   #65 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

Temple came in at #71.
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Old 09-01-2012, 10:10 PM   #66 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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Temple came in at #71.
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Old 09-01-2012, 10:14 PM   #67 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

"The transfer of Aaron Brown to Southeast Missouri State leaves the backcourt with very little experience"

Yeah, he transferred to Southern Miss.

Our biggest loss is Mike Eric. To say Juan is a bigger loss is laughable and shows Joel has no idea what he's talking about.
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Old 09-02-2012, 02:53 AM   #68 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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"The transfer of Aaron Brown to Southeast Missouri State leaves the backcourt with very little experience"

Yeah, he transferred to Southern Miss. r

Our biggest loss is Mike Eric. To say Juan is a bigger loss is laughable and shows Joel has no idea what he's talking about.
Temple lost a lot. Moore, Fernandez, Eric, and Brown all contributed to Temple last season. Temple's lack of experience at the point is something that could hurt, especially in a league that has a lot of talent at the point (Tyreek Duren (and the rest of La Salle's guards), Chazz Williams, Dillard, Richmond's crew, etc.

So this ranking doesn't seem outrageous to me. Temple will probably be competing for the upper half of the conference with VCU, St. Louis, St. Joe's, UMASS, La Salle, Butler, etc.

It would probably be a bigger surprise if Temple ended up in the top 4 this year. Now that Xavier lost Wells and will be further down in the league, a 6 or 7 preseason ranking in the A-10 for Temple probably sounds about right.
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Old 09-02-2012, 05:47 AM   #69 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

Yeah, some of this guy's analysis leaves a bit to be desired. He didn't even have the Bonnies in his top 144 last year. This year he says that it is Wright and Mosely that run the point, when actually it was Kloof and Mosely. In fact, Kloof and Gathers made up the starting backcourt when the Bonnies put it together for their February/March run, with Gathers getting the starting nod, presumably due to his defensive abilities.

He is accurate that there are plenty of questions for the Bonnies this year, centered around the frontcourt. Of course, Nicholson and Cook are gone. Hopefully the promising Marquis Simmons can come back and contribute following the Achilles tear he suffered in the third minute of the season (not an ACL, as Welser stated). The continued development of Ndoye will be counted upon, along with some minutes from the newcomers Toupane and Wright. Looks like 7' Dutchman Matthias Runs from the Canarias Basketball Academy will be a redshirt.

It will be a very different Bona team this year, with an offense not flowing through the Professor. The frontcourt was a clear strength for the Bonnies last year, and they were big and physical. This year, it looks like the backcourt and small forward spots will be strengths. Look for the emergence of Conger, and many other scoring options, including Kloof (who I feel is a very underrated PG in this league), Mosely, Matty Wright, Johnson (who was a spark off the bench last year), and the returns of Simmons and Michael Davenport from injury. The latter two were part of Bona's top 7 rotation at the start of last year, and were lost for the year.
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Old 09-02-2012, 06:09 AM   #70 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

Moore might be a bigger loss than the Fernandez of last two years, at least from the games I saw. But pg's are important. So is outside shooting. Not a lot of proven outside shooters on the team. I can't remember the last time Temple didn't have more than one really good outside shooter to stretch defenses. Maybe some of the new guys will step up?
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Old 09-02-2012, 06:45 AM   #71 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

Do my eyes deceive me or am I actually reading a discussion about basketball?

This is quite refreshing!
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Old 09-02-2012, 09:45 AM   #72 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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Do my eyes deceive me or am I actually reading a discussion about basketball?

This is quite refreshing!
Yes, Knobby. But, I must say that I am disappointed. Nobody attacked by analysis. Maybe nobody cares. Or, maybe I should have evaluated Bona's 2012-2013 prospects by criticizing another team's roster or coach. I'll have to try that approach next time.
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Old 09-02-2012, 10:01 AM   #73 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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Moore might be a bigger loss than the Fernandez of last two years, at least from the games I saw. But pg's are important. So is outside shooting. Not a lot of proven outside shooters on the team. I can't remember the last time Temple didn't have more than one really good outside shooter to stretch defenses. Maybe some of the new guys will step up?
Khalif
Scootie
O'Brien
Cummings
Pepper

Decosey can shoot it as well.

We will be fine. The biggest issue is interior defense and whoever is bringing the ball up. 71 is a ridiculous ranking though. Juan, as much as I love him is completely replaceable. Anyone who watched him play since he got here knows he regressed since his soph year. Ramone is a big loss, but Khalif can definitely put up the same numbers. Mike hurts because we dont have anyone with his size. With Lee bulking up a good 20-25 pounds, I think he can replicate the same numbers, although I'm not sure he has the same shot blocking ability. We have so much more depth than last year it is insane.
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Old 09-02-2012, 11:03 AM   #74 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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Khalif
Scootie
O'Brien
Cummings
Pepper

Decosey can shoot it as well.

We will be fine. The biggest issue is interior defense and whoever is bringing the ball up. 71 is a ridiculous ranking though. Juan, as much as I love him is completely replaceable. Anyone who watched him play since he got here knows he regressed since his soph year. Ramone is a big loss, but Khalif can definitely put up the same numbers. Mike hurts because we dont have anyone with his size. With Lee bulking up a good 20-25 pounds, I think he can replicate the same numbers, although I'm not sure he has the same shot blocking ability. We have so much more depth than last year it is insane.
I agree with you on those other issues. I'm not 100% sure about the other guys (aside from Wyatt) as deep threats (3 point), either because they're coming off of injuries and years off (Randall, O'Brien, Pepper) are freshmen/haven't taken many 3's (Decosey, Cummings) or aren't exactly lighting it up before (Pepper at 33%). I'd also think you'd want O'Brien spending more time in the post given the limitations there. But players improve, and the other guys may shake off the rust quickly enough to be factors early. With all the newcomers and transfers, I bet Temple struggles more than usual early, and then becomes good later in the year.
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Old 09-02-2012, 12:07 PM   #75 (permalink)
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Re: College Madness Top 144 preview

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71 is a ridiculous ranking though.
But still less ridiculous than putting Richmond at 145+.
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