antboy

Appreciate the thoughts as always, WH.

I'm hoping that you're underestimating the Niners. Problem is, it would be probably only the 2nd time you've done so, so I understand why folks don't expect much from them. The coach is still a question-mark in my view, just because it's clear now he was blowing up the team in slow-motion but not clear that he can develop players yet. I'm surprised you left out Mayfield in your "building blocks" list, assuming you didn't just mean underclassmen since Braswell was in there. He brought his shooting out of the dumps by the end of last year. If he continues to shoot better, he will help this team tremendously, given the lack of other outside shooters.

In your ranks, I'd say the Bonnies and Fordham are a little high (and maybe Richmond, but they are tough to figure this year), and Charlotte and Butler a touch low. I'd include Xavier in that too low group, but they are now an injury or two away from playing walk-ons significant minutes.

WH

I guarantee you, spiderdave, a check back would find me much more accurate than most preseason pubs! (-:

But yes, this is why we play the games. Nobody can predict the future. Somewhat easier to mark the best and worst teams but the middle is always tough.

In my experience, the A-10 rarely has more than one team that dramatically exceeds consensus expectations and is a surprise contender for league title. Underperformers are more common, usually because of injuries or bad chemistry.

Scheduling is also a big wild card. Who you play on the road in an unbalanced (no round robin) sked can skew some records for better or worse. I still need to look at everyone's A-10 home-away skeds to see who got the best draw.

WH

I left Mayfield out just because I wanted to keep it short. He impressed me in A-10 play, but the sophs will determine how far this team goes. I love Henry – reminds me a bit of Dennis Johnson - but a few other youngsters really need to make that leap.

I had Butler at 8 and 9 before settling on 10. I do place great weight on coaching, so that might be too low. But a team short on size and shooting in the A-10, and lacking an established point, rarely finishes in the top half. Stevens has his work cut out for him.

Fordham, admittedly, is a hunch. I am expecting the Rams backcourt to make a big leap. Percora made them much more competitive last season and he’s got a lot of guards, athleticism and depth on the roster. But I could see Fordham stuck in the bottom three again.

As for Bona, I have seen many an A-10 team lose a big star (or more) but do very well the next season. SJU, Xavier, GW and Temple have all done that in the past decade. Bona has nine players who have seen extended minutes at some point in their career.

I like the backcourt, too. Mosley, Wright, Kloof and Gathers are a nice quartet and Michael Davenport is back.

paulxu

Well, this certainly puts us in a great spot to sneak up on people.

I would expect VCU to do a little better, and LaSalle not quite to #6.

__________________
...he went up late, and I was already up there.

DistrictBaller

FWIW, Blue Ribbon will have VCU at #2 in the A-10 when it comes out and I have that on good authority.

I think Saint Louis is the healthy favorite for several reasons that have been hashed and re-hashed.

No one really knows, but it's fun to talk about. Realistically VCU could be anywhere from 1-6 this year.

__________________
"We will wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and plan of attack."
- VCU Head Coach Shaka Smart

Jonathan Watters

Srry double post

Jonathan Watters

A couple of questions...

Are you aware that this supposedly poor shooting Butler squad will now feature by far the most prolific outside shooter in the conference, and likely the best shooter in the entire country? Not sure how they could be considered undersized, either. Andrew smith is one of the few true C's in the conference, woods will be one of the top per minute shot blockers in the a-10, and marshall always plays his best ball against bigger opponents. Butler might finish 10th, but lack of shooting and lack of size will have nothing to do with it.

I think you miss the mark on VCU as well, they are essentially a fast paced st louis. They force turnovers, they hang on to the ball remarkably well, and they balance out the offense to the point where defenses have to pick their poison. These things arent going away once they've been taught. . I realize they shot poorly last year, but that happens to young guards in feature roles. By march they weren't even remotely the same team they were in December, and it would be foolish to think we won't see that backcourt make offensive strides this year. Much like st Louis, we can be absolutely certain that they will force to's while hanging onto the ball themselves. Nobody from the a-10 would have beaten Wichita state last year in the tourney, and I dont know if any team can be projected to improve more than VCU year over year.5th place would be a worst case scenario, and they ought to be favored over any team other than st louis. Even st louis is questionable...

I would compare these two with your treatment of lasalle, who will likely start a 6'4 shooting guard at the at the 4 and has almost zero chance to shoot 3's as well as they did last season. Now there is an undersized team...

Fastchuck

I would compare these two with your treatment of lasalle, who will likely start a 6'4 shooting guard at the at the 4 and has almost zero chance to shoot 3's as well as they did last season. Now there is an undersized team...[/QUOTE]

There is a possiblity that 6'11" Steve Zack will start along with Wright in the front court with 3 guards. The best 3 point shooters return (Galloway and Mills). Although Pettis had 3 point range, he was best at creating his own shot. It appears that transfer Tyrone Barley will fill that role once he is eligible in Dec. In fact, this year's team is bigger than last year and more versatile although the bigs, outside of Wright, are unproven.

As I have stated before, the Explorers are capable of beating every team in the league, both at home or on the road. The reverse is also true. When it has all played out, I think that WH's assessment will prove to be pretty accurate.

Jonathan Watters

I don't doubt lasalle for a minute, they are very capable of making a tourney run. I bring them up only to contrast against the two new teams.

But it is still almost unfathomable for a team to shoot to shoot that well 2 years in a row, and Steve zack hasnt done anything to indicate he's an a-10 caliber player. Put him out there next to white and the small ball offense that works so well isn't as effective. The most likely scenario is that lasalle stays with 4 guards for most of the game, and losing Pettis/ his ability to play big hurts more than it would other teams.

I also think the emphasis on garland, a guy who couldn't crack a low level acc team's rotation, really underscores the impact rotnei clarke, an all conference caliber player at the same level, is going to have.

DistrictBaller

Watters makes a salient point. VCU replaced 4 of its top 5 scorers last year and had 9 underclassmen on the squad. We did make great strides from the start of the year to the end. We were flat out bad early in the year, especially the Charleston Classic as we worked in our young guys and got role players from the year before acclimated to more integral roles. We steadily and rapidly improved as the year progressed.

Our shooting woes were largely a function of youth and inexperience. Other than Brad Burgess, we had Darius Theus (15.3 mpg) taking over at point guard, Troy Daniels (4.7 mpg) taking over at shooting guard, and the next 3 guys who got minutes were all freshmen who basically doubled their minutes from 2010-2011 (Juvonte Reddic: 11.2 mpg to 27.3 mpg, DJ Haley: 7.7 mpg to 15.4 mph, and Rob Brandenberg: 13.7 mpg to 25.9 mpg). On top of that we had 6 incoming freshmen, 2 of which played over 16 minutes per game in Treveon Graham and Briante Weber.

What ended up being our main 8 man rotation consisted of a proven commodity in Brad Burgess, a 15 mpg backup taking the reins at the 1, 3 '10-'11 freshmen all either doubling or close to doubling their minutes, a guy who got less than 5 mpg in '10-'11 starting at the 2, and 2 true freshmen. The other 4 freshmen all played 5.6 minutes or less.

I expect that our shooting will improve with the experience gained and our players maturing. This incoming team still only has 2 scholarship seniors and brings in 2 2012 ESPN top 100 guys this season.

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Rotnei Clarke at Butler will likely be the best outside shooter in the conference from Day 1, and there are some excellent guards in this conference. Losing Chrishawn Hopkins is a big blow although he was a bit of a chucker last year. Butler's starters are pretty good and should stack up well against most teams in the A-10. I don't know if they have enough depth to keep up with the top-tier squads though and that will matter in a league as stacked and loaded as the Atlantic 10 is this year. I would have put them in my top 4-5 teams with Hopkins, but I think they're probably mid-pack now. We'll see. Outside shooting was a huge concern for Butler last year and teams packed it in on their post players because they were too one-dimensional.

With Clarke and one of the top shooters in the 2012 class in Kellen Dunham, that aspect of the game should improve for the Bulldogs. What they don't have is a point who can create his own offense and break down defenses off the dribble like Chrishawn Hopkins was capable of doing. It remains to be seen if sophomore Aussie back-up PG Jackson Aldridge can step up in his place and be serviceable enough to fill the void left by Chrishawn's absence.

__________________
"We will wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and plan of attack."
- VCU Head Coach Shaka Smart

Jonathan Watters

I really wonder about the loss of Hopkins, also. He shot 38% and 27% from 3, had more to's than assists. Replacing him with Dunham is a downgrade? I think I take that switch if I'm Stevens.

But the pg question remains, especially considering that clarke is now the 2. Clarke could really use a superior athlete next to him, and that he doesnt appear to have. I wonder if jones could learn to play a shelvin mack style pg? I figure Stevens will find a way to make the defense work since that is what he does, but I think there is more risk of butler being mediocre defensivley in the a-10 than offensively. The things Stevens is going to do to opponents with a weapon like Clarke...well, they probably aren't fit to be described on a public message board.

I struggle placing butler as well, but I can't go any lower than 6. I would say they have a higher ceiling and a lower floor than the others in that 3-8 pack.

DistrictBaller

Hopkins was a chucker, but he was the guy a lot of people thought would have played point and not the 2 as I understand it. His percentages weren't anything to write home about, but he was the 3rd leading scorer for Butler last year. Dunham is pretty much a 2 or a hybrid 3 in a 3 guard set and as a true freshman there will be an adjustment.

What Hopkins had was hands down the most athleticism on the team and the ability to create offense when the team stalled with his speed, athleticism, and dribble drive. That doesn't mean he would have been any more effective or Butler any better this year, but those are things Butler had at their disposal that they don't now.

I don't worry about the defense at Butler. They were still a very solid defensive club last year despite ending up in the CBI. Brad Stevens is masterful on that side of the ball. It will be interesting to see how he melds all these pieces into a cohesive offensive unit without an experienced PG to command and direct the offense and create plays for others. In the A-10 this will be important.

__________________
"We will wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and plan of attack."
- VCU Head Coach Shaka Smart

tman

*Dayton has a fine point guard in Kevin Dilliard and two solid bigmen in Josh Benson and Matt Kavanaugh. After that, though, and there lots of questions. Vee Sandford, Georgetown transfer, will have to step in and step up right away. Hard for me to see this team getting to the postseason given what I know now. An above-.500 team, probably, but not much more.

Maybe I missed the memo but when did the point guard become almost irrelevant in this league? And if it hasn't how is it possible that a team with a Kevin Dillard be expected to finish around 500?

If one has a Dillard and TWO solid bigmen, my expectations would be much greater than a little over 500.
Isn't the point guard still the most important player in this league?
Can we not say Dayton has a great point guard?
Isn't it true that history tell us (sans Nicholson) the better the point guard the better the finish in this guard oriented league?


WH, have I overrated the abilities of one Kevin Dillard and where would you rank Dilliard among the best point guards in this league?

Flyer75

For once I'm in agreement with Tman. I look at the talent SLU is throwing out there and I compare it to UD. I don't see much difference where SLU is significantly better at any position over UD. I would give the PG edge to Dayton in fact. Yet I see one team coming in at 9-11, IN THE COUNTRY, and the other coming in at 9-11, IN THE A10. What am I missing here, other then the fact that Dayton has failed badly in the past, which has zero bearing on this season. I look at what Archie did last year with this team, a team that was forced to play Ralph Hill and especially Luke Fabrizius more minutes then they would have seen on any other team in the A10 last year. Yet we go 9-7 and were in EVERY single game with a shot to win, despite our team makeup. This was largely due to Kevin Dillard. I don't care who you put around him, he controls the tempo of the game and gave us a shot to win every game. In A10 play last year, we lost ONE game by double digits and that margin was 10. We were within 1 point at SBU with 3 min to go before losing by 8 and that was without Johnson or Benson. I know...woulda, shoulda, coulda...my point is, that wasn't a good UD team last year other then Dillard and Johnson (would have been better if Benson hadn't gotten hurt) and we went 9-7. Oh well, let the games begin.

Nehemiahingram

Wait, La Salle has a transfer coming in named Tyrone Barley? Is that for realz?