WH

Clarke is clearly a better player than Redford and will help Butler much more than Redford helps Xavier. No question. My point was merely that Redford is a great shooter.

As I said, though, I have seen many a player struggle a bit more shooting after a one-year layoff. Plus Clarke will be on a new team, new system and in a new league. I figure he will be one of the best shooters in the A-10, but I don’t expect him to pick up exactly where he left off.
I also expect he will have to play some point, which usually hurts a shooter.

Btw, I question that Clark performed against better defenses. The SEC as a league has been down overall for several years and my own eyes tell me the A-10 has been every bit as good defensively as a league, if not more so. The A-10 is 9-5 vs. the SEC in the last two years.

WH

D-Baller, I definitely am not objective on Butler and VCU, but not because of intent. It's simply impossible for me to evaluate these teams like I would normally do A-10 programs because I have not seen them as much and don't have any tapes. I usually DVR a lot of A-10 games and peruse in the off season.

BTW, no disrespect assumed on my part. I enjoy some hoops debate and don't mind some spirited discusssion! All in good fun.

Personally, I hope Butler and VCU excel and vie for the league title. I want as many strong teams in the league as possible and as many postseason bids.

As long as my team, Umass, is one of them - I don't care who comes out on top! (-:

WH

Some point soon I will do my usual and predict noncon league performance and W-L predictions in A-10 play for each league team. As a result, I will revise my initial league forecast. Who's got who, home and away, is always a major factor in final placement.

xu1990

Thanks WH your work is appreciated. I know your posts will be informative and not contain the jejune drivel often associated with message boards.

I think X is in for repeated trips to the woodshed this year. That being said, I have faith in Chris Mack and the Mike Bobinski. I know Chris on a personal level so I am perhaps biased. Chris is intelligent, dedicated, hard working and has a true passion for coaching. I believe X has a recruiting popeline in place that will produce a fairly significant turn around next season. The players who will be forced to play minutes beyond what anyone would have anticipated will benefit greatly in years to come from doing so.

To sumarize, sure, the A-10 gets a chance to administer an old fashioned spanking to X this year, but don't get used to do so. It won't last.

Thanks Again for your insight.

Jonathan Watters

In my opinion, VCU is likely to fulfill all those categories. If you assume no improvement from a group of guards that improved at an astonishingly fast rate all of last season, I can see them failing at the halfcourt scoring requirement, and I guess if you wanted to get technical you could say they don't have an elite PG...but that is misleading considering they have at least 3 players capable of starting at PG in the A-10 and dominant the turnover battle so thoroughly.

It also seems like you really want to focus on comparing league records, when VCU's league record doesn't even come close to telling the full story there. Beyond the fact that they went from a team with almost zero experience that was on a track for a .500 conf finish to a squad that was clearly capable of playing with anybody, the Colonial has plenty of legendary road destinations as well. The reasonable metrics play this out, with VCU reaching at-large territory only after an NCAA Tournament win, but if you focus on the last 10-15 games of the year they are right there with the A-10 elite. If somebody can explain to me how it is more logical to view VCU in the context of their entire season rather than the last 10-15 games, I'm all ears. If not, I'm struggling to buy the argument that the A-10 is going to be a rough transition.

Now let's take a look at St Joe's, which clearly fails in at least two of your major categories. Their guards were way too focused on offense and running almost the full 40 minutes to play defense last year, and St Joe's struggled despite a nationally elite shot blocking presence. It is extremely difficult to be as bad as St Joe's was last year on defense with a shot blocker like Aiken patrolling the paint, but they never forced TO's (despite a small, quick backcourt) and they didn't defend the 3 pt line well. Their other problem is your 3 wings category. St Joe's has 1 star wing player, and nobody else even remotely A-10 caliber. And their 1 wing is undersized at that. Do these things change year over year? I think they can be expected to improve to a certain extent, but with no newcomers at the wing expected to make an impact, backcourt size and depth are going to be issues all season long.

That being said, I expect St Joe's to make the tournament this year. Their starting five is elite and I think you'll see the returning players improve enough to overcome their deficiencies - even if they don't complement each other the way that St Louis and VCU's core returnees do.

I guess I don't think I'm underestimating St Joe's here, I just think VCU is going to be taking heads all season - regardless of where they are playing.

Mac539

We have another Explorer Steve here. BTW, WH may think Martelli is a good coach, but he doesn't coach defense. The only good defensive teams we have had was when Jameer Nelson was the coach.

paulxu

I don't know exactly what a recruiting popeline is, but I think I've seen some of these kids in the stands the last couple of years.

http://a0.twimg.com/profile_images/1444228100/popes.jpg

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DistrictBaller

I completely understand that. Thanks for sharing your insights. It's been a thought-stimulating exercise. Thanks for the well-wishes. I've said it several times, but I really just want us to get to the NCAA's. The A-10 crown would be nice and if thats the only way to get to the NCAAs, I want it, but I'm thinking we'll have a number of A-10 bids this year and would be quite satisfied if we got one of them. A-10 bragging rights is nice, but I think we all have designs on more national success which is a great thing about this league.

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Nehemiahingram

Idk. Ask Fast Chuck.

WH

J-Watters, you are doing way too much inferring about stuff that I am not implying.

I put VCU fifth. I think the Rams can finish anywhere from 2-6 (I feel pretty strongly they will not win the league regular season title, though the tourney is open).

I probably give SJU, UMass and Temple a slight edge mainly because of familiarity with the league. The differences are slight.

I expect SJU to be better this year than last year, and I expect VCU to be better, too.

Problem is, I can project SJU more easily in my own mind because I saw what the Hawks accomplished in the A-10 last season.

I cannot do that for VCU. I have to project how the Rams will fare in a new (and better) league with players I am less familiar with.

Yes, VCU and Butler can both do better than I suggest. I’ve said so before and I say so again.

Methinks you doth protest too much …

WH

Sometimes it helps to check the stats. Memories are a funny thing.

SJU actually led the A-10 last season in field-goal percentage defense in A-10 play. They allow opponents to shoot 40.5%.

Heck, SJU even finished first in the A-10 in FG% defense for the entire season. Opponents shot just 40%. VCU foes shot 42.4%.

Now, I grant. SJU was not great at 3PG FG% defense. Just 10th at 35%. VCU was better at 32.1%.

You might want to revise your post ...

Jonathan Watters

I'm protesting too much, you definitely have a clump of teams at the top. But once again, I'm going to protest a faulty argument, or at least an argument that is based on faulty logic.

"checking the stats" is a lot more complex than just looking at fg% defense. FG% defense is a big part of defense, but it isn't the whole picture. With Aiken, they were virtually guaranteed to have a low FG% defense. Furthermore, if you go back and reread my post, you will see that I covered this very point. What led to mediocre defense last season from St Joes was their inability to force turnovers or defend the 3-point line. They were also a very poor rebounding team - this would be the area where I would expect St Joe's to show some genuine improvement, since the size in the frontcourt is definitely a strength...

Turtle

I think Bonnies fans would be extremely happy if the team finishes 7th in the conference. I certainly would be and I think it's possible. Kloof, Gathers, Conger, and Mosley are all great ball handlers and great all around players on offense and defense. I think the Bonnies will have one of the better defenses in the conference. The big question mark is our lone big man Ndoye. I think Ndoye will be a great player but the fact that we only have one big man is depressing.

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Mac539

JW, one thing you should remember. SJU did not have a SENIOR on the team last year.(Except walk-ons) This year they have ONE. In college basketball that is huge as far as consistency and body development is concerned. This year I would expect their juniors to play like seniors, as they played a lot as freshmen. Now, this has nothing to do with VCU, just your perception of SJU. For all I know, VCU will win the league. But you have to equate the consistency of a team with age and experience.

Bill Russell

Marquise Simmons? Also, the staff is still waiting on word from the NCAA on 7-footer Matthias Runs. That matter is not decided at all. It seems like a 50/50 shot.

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