TheCobra

I begrudgingly offer that Dayton does not often have the "A10 suck" loss, as WH suggests. You guys should all love us. Almost every year, UD plays wonderfully in the nonconference schedule, beating at least one and usually two BCS teams, only to serve as a semi-quality win for A10 teams in conference play. This was especially true during the BG years, when we had the athletes to hang with the big schools but he was far to stubborn to change his strategy in A10 play.

Even with the Buffalo loss last year (which I thought was more of a bad matchup and a hot opponent than anything else), UD had a solid nonconference season.

WH

Cobra, you are mainly on the mark.

I said every year or two. It's really every 2-3 three years. Buffalo last year, East Tennessee the year before that, but then you have to go back to around 2005 to find the next one, Eastern Kentucky. So three in seven years. Otherwise the Flyers have handled noncon home games well. Even in those three losses, they all turned out to be very good midmajor teams.

bprichard

9-5 OOC and 18-12 overall would cast a dark shadow over my entire life, leading to a spiral of drugs and depression, resulting eventually in institutionalization. Maybe I need to ease up on my intensity vis a vis UD basketball . . .

Flyer75

Agreed.


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WH

Remember, Flyer fans. I tend to be VERY conservative the less I know about a team. So many new guys on the Flyers, it's hard to get a good read.

The sked is difficult, relatively speaking. Fewer easy wins over low-level teams. More solid midmajor programs - but that's good for RPI!

AdamtheFlyer

East Tennessee State was led by senior guards. Buffalo's best player was a sophomore, but two senior guards lit Dayton up, and a junior guard also had a great game.

Manhattan's best player is a senior G/F. Another senior guard doesn't look to be a factor. Rest are 3 freshmen and 3 sophomores. I'd say there's a better chance UD wins that game by 30+ than losing. Young guards and road games are not a healthy mix, unless you are Kentucky.

I think the most likely letdown home OOC loss is Illinois State. New coach and a young team, but they are led by two good seniors. And one of their freshmen guards, Kaza Keane, will be a star for them. They won't be intimidated by the stage.

Still a slim chance for that, though. I don't see this Dayton team having a home letdown all year, let alone in conference. Senior PG, two senior bigs, junior wing, a 4th year junior and a 3rd year soph. Despite quite a few new parts, Dayton brings an older, experienced top 8. Games away from home and home league games vs Xavier, Butler, St Joe, Temple, and Richmond will tell the tale of 2013.

__________________
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

bprichard

I'll be back in town for Illinois State and Murray State. I'm excited for two games at the Arena against quality opponents. Usually the games I'm around for (exclusively around Christmas to see the family) are not of overwhelming quality.

TheCobra

The hurricane's got me shut in, so I took a look at some of our early matchups, particularly in the Charleston Classic. Shockingly, I think we matchup pretty well with Colorado and less so with Baylor .

ARKANSAS STATE returns their next 4 of its 5 best players, all of whom played over 30 minutes a game last season. Of course, they went 14-20. They will likely not be as easy an out as you would think though, especially considering we will have many guys dealing with "real first game" jitters. Big guy Brandon Peterson (9pt/8reb last season) will be Jalen Robinson's first challenge, and it looks like they have 3 experienced perimeter guys returning in Marcus Hooten (12.5), Trey Finn (11.6) and Ed Townsel (9). I obviously expect UD to win, but a good first test.

As we know COLORADO won the Pac10 and got to the round of 32 of the NCAA. They lost their leading scorer (Carlon Brown), a key big (Austin Dufault), and starting PG/role player (Tomlinson). They have Andre Roberson coming back, who averaged 11 and 11 with 2 blocks last season as a 3/4 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSDOTA9QvdM ). I think he is a Chris Wright type of player who will play the 4 but has more of a face up game. Obviously, he is a tough matchup that will likely fall to Oliver, Benson and Scott. Oliver seems most suited to guard him, but no doubt he will do damage. The centers will be a big non-scoring Australian (Harris-Tufts) and/or a talented but thin freshman big (Josh Scott). Probably jumping the gun to say I like our options at C better, but I do think Robinson/Gav/Scott should hold their own. Freshman Xavier Johnson from Mater Dei in SoCal should get minutes at SF and seems polished already.

Two sophomore guards will likely start in the backcourt for CO. Spencer Dinwiddle is a sharpshooter who averaged 10ppg as a freshman. Askia Booker was a backup PG last year but played 22 minutes per game and played well in the NCAA tournament. He is ready to be a strong player for them as a sophomore. Still, obviously for Dayton, this is the matchup that needs to be won by the Flyers if they want to win the game. Booker looks up to the challenge.

If the Flyers can get passed CO, its likely BAYLOR, who has overwhelming talent. In the frontcourt, they have 7 foot Isaiah Austin who was a top 5 recruit in the country ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_YV3JINYCA ). Baylor just brings them in. He is very skinny and looks like he prefers jump shots and face up moves over post moves, which makes me fear him less. I would guess all of our bigs will have a chance to check him. The other big might be another freshman, Ricardo Gathers. This dude is grown man at 6'7 and relies on his strength and athleticism ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSXzpEZBKys ). He is also a top 30 recruit. He might be the better matchup for Scott and Robinson than for Benson, who would get shoved out of the way by Gathers. Deuce Bello will probably play small forward. He is a great athlete but didn't seem like a great player last year. He was a prized recruit as well and has NBA potential, so he could make a big jump this year.

Baylor might go with 3 guards a lot, as that is where all their veterans are. Pierre Jackson is a star who will score a ton this year ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_FsZWacJYg ). I saw on twitter where he has a chip on his shoulder over being snubbed by the LeBron James Skills Academy. As we all know, our guy KD was a camp invitee, and no doubt Jackson knows this. This has the makings of a classic PG matchup. Baylor also has sharpshooter and smart player Brady Heslip, which many might remember from last year's NCAA game against Xavier, and been-there-forever heady defender AJ Walton on the perimeter. I would not be surprised to see these three guys on the court together this year. The other thing about Baylor that you have to be prepared for is the weird zone, which these guards play well. I actually think we have enough crafty players to be effective against zones, especially inside the arch.

The biggest advantage we have in this game is that we would be playing them in their 3rd game of the season. As Gathers and Austin grow, these guys are going to be good. We could snag a coveted "looks much better at the end of the season" victory in this game.

If we don't get past Colorado, we will probably play BOSTON COLLEGE. They were a horrible 9-22 last year, and have 4 of 5 guys returning. They also have former Flyer target Olivier Hanlan on their team, who soured on us after Juwan Thomas committed. As we all know, his spot now belongs to Khari Price, so that would be an interesting side story to this game. I am hopeful that Price will be a pleasant surprise for our team once he learns how to play at this level at his size. Hanlan will likely have an opportunity to play, and we all know that Price is going to have his opportunities. BC's best player looks to be Ryan Anderson, who averaged 11 and 7 last year. Their next best returner is a 7 footer, Dennis Clifford. It looks like there will be a comprehensive preview of their team this week starting today here: http://soaringtoglory.com/2012/10/28...-introduction/

Flyer75

The good news is if we get past Colorado....we would be playing Baylor early on. I guess one could say the same thing about playing UD early on but I don't think I wanna tackle Baylor in February.

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WrightFlyer87

I'm also trapped at home by the hurricane, so therefore weigh in.

Good analysis of Colorado. For several reasons, I think they will be a real challenge for the Flyers.
First, with the game so early in the season, it will tough for the freshmen bigs to acclimate quickly enough
for an opponent with size, skill and some quality (NCAA) experience. Second, Gav having mono is a total
wildcard. Is he even practicing right now? Even if plays, he probably won't have any real stamina. I hate to
say it, but I really doubt that UD takes this game.

The highly likely second game is BC. Ryan Anderson appears to be quite a player, but he has thin support.
Their bigs are very tall, but their skill level is not great. I think Benson, JRob and Scott prevail, and
that our guards also outplay theirs. A review of BC's hoops chat board reflects that the program is in pretty
brutal shape.

For Game 3, I think that the Flyers can handle St. John's/Auburn/Charleston.

For whatever iut is worth, College Sports Madness Top 144 ranks the field as follows:

BC not ranked

St. John's 144
Charleston 113
Auburn 104
Dayton 92
Colorado 60
Murray St. 34
Baylor 23 (AP #19)

After lengthy thought, I had booked the trip to the Charleston Classic. That decison
was before the Kavanagh expulsion and learning of Gav's mono. Despite that, UD looked
solid against Findlay. I'm cautiously optimistic and still think they'll take 2 of 3 in
a strong field of teams. Any one else making the trip?