WH

W - NOV. 10 ARKANSAS STATE
L - Nov. 15 vs. Colorado (Charleston Classic)
L - Nov. 16 vs. Baylor/Boston College (Charleston Classic)
W- - Nov. 18 at Charleston Classic
L - NOV. 24 MANHATTAN
W- NOV. 28 WEBER STATE
W- DEC. 1 NORTHERN ILLINOIS
L - Dec. 5 at Alabama
W - DEC. 8 MIAMI (OHIO)
W- DEC. 15 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
W- DEC. 19 ILLINOIS STATE
W DEC. 22 MURRAY STATE
L - Dec. 30 at Southern Cal
W- JAN. 5 UAB

NONCON FORECAST: 9-5

A-10 FORECAST: 9-7

OVERALL PREDICTION: 18-12

Dayton has a tough schedule and things could be very bumpy early on, but there's a lot of home cooking to finish strong.

Arkansas State returns four starters including star guard Trey Finn and the team is expected to contend for the Sunbelt title. Arkansas State, coached by former LSU headman John Brady, upset Bonaventure in Olean last year, so this is a dangerous game.

Colorado won the Pac 10 last year and they have a good nucleus back from a 24-win team. Forward Andre Roberson is one of the league's best players.

I see Dayton losing to the Buffs and then getting nipped by a much improved BC squad in the second game. BC's frontcourt can hang with the Flyers but the PG slot is unsettled. Dilliard has to have a big game for the Flyers to pull the game out.

Final game of the Charleston classic could involve a game with either Charleston, St Johns, Auburn or Murray State. All have question marks but are beatable. I call it a win.

Back home Dayton gets another rude shock from a Manhattan team that won 21 games and returns all five starters, including standout guard George Beamon. Speedy Jaspers stun the home crowd.

Flyers get back on track with home wins over rebuilding Northern Illinois (5-26) and a good Weber State team that has to replace three starters, including its point guard and NBA lottery pick Damian Lilliard.

A trip to Alabama results in a loss. Tide is younger than last year's 21-win team - no more JaMychal Green or Tony Mitchell - and ripe for an upset, but I see Alabama avenging last year's loss in Dayton.

Back home again, the Flyers rip off wins vs Miami Ohio, Florida Atlantic, Illinois State and Murray State. Miami replaces longtime coach Charlie Coles and his methodical approach that often bothered Dayton. Florida Atlantic, coached by former GW boss Mike Jarvis, lost four key players to tranfer and is rebuilding.

Illinois State might have one of its best teams in years and should contend for the MVC title. Big forward Jackie Carmichael is a star and the team is full of good shooters. Flyers need this game and squeak out a home victory.

Murray State, meanwhile, lost three starters from its 30-win team and won't be quite as good. Another tough game that Dayton pulls out.

USC only won 6 games last season, but the team gets back a lot of healthy veterans who returned from injury, including former Fordham starting PG Jio Fontan. West Coast trips are always tough.

Dayton ends its noncon slate with a win over UAB, which replaced coach Mike Davis and has a thin roster.

DarkFlyer

Thanks for the write up, WH.

I would be disappointed if the Flyers finished 9-5 in the OOC schedule. It would be their worst OOC performance in terms of losses in nearly a decade.

__________________
In Dillard we trust.

WH

I had Dayton at 10-4 but added an A-10 Suck Factor loss as I always do. This seems to me to be the toughest sked I can remember the Flyers playing in the A-10. Not as many dogs as usual. Most of the midmajors the team plays are solid.

FlyingElvis

I was thinking the same thing, but I don't have WH level insight on the quality of the teams that we will be playing in the non-conf this year.

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"US Bank Arena can't be that bad"

WH

I see at least three losses, but none of these teams is head and shoulders above Dayton. It is a surprisingly tough sked, though.

SpiderDave19

Just read a few magazines and watch a couple games.

AdamtheFlyer

It's a respectable schedule, but let's not overrate it. It will look better in the RPI formula than it will on the floor. But that's the game most A10 schools have to play. We can't go out and schedule 8 BCS teams and still make the dollars work, so we schedule lower quality teams who will win a lot in their own league to maximize SOS as much as possible.

I don't see why Manhattan could realistically come into Dayton and win. They have two upperclassmen taller than 6'4", one is a 6'6" F/C, and a ton of youth off the bench. Not a good combo to go on the road and beat good teams.

I see Dayton going 2-1 in Charleston and a loss at Alabama. At USC will be tough, but I think Dayton gets that one.

Murray State seems like a coin flip, though it could be better in Dayton's favor depending on what happens with Zay Jackson. Throw in an A10 suck factor loss somewhere. 11-3 or 10-4, depending on Murray. I think they are more likely to go 12-2 than 9-5. I just don't see 5 losses.

__________________
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

SpiderDave19

I agree. Dayton should be a game or two better.

College Hoops

WH, I appreciate the time and thought you put into your evaluations. I think the consensus of opinions and perhaps yours as well is that Dayton will finish four or more spots higher then GW. Yet, you have GW beating Manhattan at tne Verizon Center but the Jaspers beating UD on their home court.

uz2b-len

I really hope Dayton beats BC.
I thought WH had Manhattan beating GW. Just read it, ought to be able to remember.

WH

Sometimes I play hunches, CH. Dayton should win at home, but they are coming off a tough three-game tourney and I've seen a lot of teams let down in that situation. Dayton can sometimes be lethargic at home vs lesser teams. Manhattan will be hungry and energetic, I am guessing.

The Flyers have a clunker at home every year or two - check last season's 84-55 drubbing to Buffalo.

I don't feel strongly about it, though. Look at the team W-L prediction as a whole. I tally things up and then add an unexpected loss for every team. Seems to work at getting a more accurate noncon forecast for the league in terms of actual wins and losses.

I look at skeds organically, too. Manhattan, in an odd quirk, plays three straight A-10 teams on the road (I've never seen this before). I give the Jaspers the best odds of pulling an upset in the first game vs. Dayton but also having them winning at Fordham.

My guess is the Jaspers only get one of these two games. Manhattan plays GW last of the three and the Colonials always get up for the BBT Classic.

It's not just about who is the better team. Last year Harvard and American beat SJU, but Harvard lost to Fordham and American lost to Richmond. It all ... depends!

xavierhoops

I forgot about the Buffalo game last year. Good memory, WH. Surely, jet lag will do in the Flyers yet again against Manhattan travelling all the way back from Charleston.

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Chris Mack in 3 years at Xavier has had twice the NCAA wins (4) of the entire Dayton coaching staff in the modern era of NCAA basketball (2).

SpiderDave19

obsessed ^^^^

WH

I saw that Buffalo game. One of the ugliest losses I've seen in A-10 play. An aberration, to be sure, but a stunner nonetheless.

UMass87

He did...he changed it.