Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) - Page 2 - Basketball Forum : Professional and College Basketball Forums

Knobby · 10-31-2012, 06:09 AM

Given all of the "professional predictions" out there, this is as reasonable an order for predicted A-10 finish as anyone has put out there without math behind it.

uz2b-len · 10-31-2012, 10:28 AM

He gives Richmond its highest predicted ranking that I've seen so far, suggests that they will be a real player in the conference this year.

SDW · 10-31-2012, 10:50 AM

Len,

It will all come down to defense for Richmond, specifically on the ball defending on the perimeter and defensive rebounding. This Spider team will have many offensive weapons and should be one of the better outside shooting UR teams in memory. But if they can't stop penetration off the dribble and open the bigs up to nonstop help situations (and corresponding foul trouble) and can't get one-and-done stops on defense consistently, the offensive efficiency becomes completely neutralized.

TheCobra · 10-31-2012, 11:11 AM

Agree on Richmond. They will be a player in that second grouping of teams, which is where the intrigue will be this year. Two or three of VCU/SJU/Temple/SLU will likely establish themselves atop the league. The interesting race is going to be for that 4 and 5 spots, which sound like they might come with tickets to the dance this year. Richmond is among the best in that next group, in my view. They can shoot and they are well-coached. Lil KA 2.0 is going to have a huge year.

AdamtheFlyer · 10-31-2012, 12:09 PM

Keep in mind, KenPom preseason numbers have nothing to do with predicting standings.

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Knobby · 10-31-2012, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer

Keep in mind, KenPom preseason numbers have nothing to do with predicting standings.

Sent from my DROIDX using VerticalSports.Com App

Indirectly they do though. If you look over the the order the teams came out to be, it is hard to argue more than +/- one position..... on paper.

Goddammit lets get this season started already!

AdamtheFlyer · 10-31-2012, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knobby

Indirectly they do though. If you look over the the order the teams came out to be, it is hard to argue more than +/- one position..... on paper.

Not really. It is very possible for Butler to end up 64 in KenPom and win 13 A10 games. It's also very possible they finish 64 in KenPom and win 7 A10 games. Same goes for every other A10 teams. Chances are they finish somewhere in between, but the gap between 40 and 100 in KenPom is actually really slim. Too slim to take overall kenpom rank as a conference standings predictor.

KenPom is predicting how every team will compare to 340+ other teams over 30 games, not 16 teams over 16 games. His formula is not at all projecting individual games. Not yet.

If you want to know how KenPom thinks the A10 will go, check his game predictions in early January.

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**El Shaqtus** · 10-31-2012, 02:23 PM

Glad this gets updated. I was still thinking SLU was 122.

Inside SLU joke.

ExplorerSteve · 11-02-2012, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DistrictBaller

Ken Pomeroy is one of the foremost basketball statisticians in the country and his rankings throughout the year are well-regarded.

http://kenpom.com/

SLU 25
VCU 31
SJU 42
UMass 55
Richmond 60
Temple 61
Butler 64

Here's his formula:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web..._ten_overlords

Go ahead and read through his process if you have time, he certainly puts a lot of thought into it.

Ken Pom is out of his frickin' mind. Placing SJU 30 spots ahead of La Salle? Placing La Salle behind UMass, Butler and Richmond?

That is just plan crazy. Looking forward to the season and for my team to prove these guys are just plain clueless.

SpiderDave19 · 11-02-2012, 03:01 PM

Lasalle belongs behind Butler and Umass, and Saint Joe's....though maybe not that far behind.. And they belong close to Richmond.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.....Lasalle beat Umass twice, but over the course of 35 games Umass was better and will be again this year, in my opinion.....and everyone else's opinion outside of ExplorerLand.

ExplorerSteve · 11-02-2012, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpiderDave19

Lasalle belongs behind Butler and Umass, and Saint Joe's....though maybe not that far behind.. And they belong close to Richmond.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.....Lasalle beat Umass twice, but over the course of 35 games Umass was better and will be again this year, in my opinion.....and everyone else's opinion outside of ExplorerLand.

We strongly disagree. Explorer fans agree that we are right up there with SJU, UMass and Butler. You will see as the season progresses. UMass wasn't any better then La Salle or Saint Joe's last season and won't be this year either. All were NIT teams last season and all should be NCAA teams this year.

AdamtheFlyer · 11-02-2012, 04:00 PM

Come on, Steve, don't get your hopes up. You know the referees won't let La Salle succeed.

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SpiderDave19 · 11-02-2012, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ExplorerSteve

We strongly disagree. Explorer fans agree that we are right up there with SJU, UMass and Butler. You will see as the season progresses. UMass wasn't any better then La Salle or Saint Joe's last season and won't be this year either. All were NIT teams last season and all should be NCAA teams this year.

You're right, Explorer fans disagree. But they are the only ones, it seems. Doesn't that tell you something?

I like Lasalle's team. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they get a bye and threaten an NCAA berth. But I like the other teams a little better. As does most everyone else that's not a Lasalle fan.

mateer · 11-03-2012, 09:16 AM

I hate it when I'm more optimistic than the experts, and that rarely happens... but this year I'm bullish on the Spiders. I think we'll be very good.

10-31-2012, 06:09 AM	#16 (permalink)
Knobby Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Western Mass Posts: 1,814 Rep Power: 247596	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) Given all of the "professional predictions" out there, this is as reasonable an order for predicted A-10 finish as anyone has put out there without math behind it. __________________ Well, we were smaller, but at least we were slower!

10-31-2012, 10:28 AM	#17 (permalink)
uz2b-len Player Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 817 Rep Power: 5048	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) He gives Richmond its highest predicted ranking that I've seen so far, suggests that they will be a real player in the conference this year.

10-31-2012, 10:50 AM	#18 (permalink)
SDW Veteran Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,412 Rep Power: 2128	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) Len, It will all come down to defense for Richmond, specifically on the ball defending on the perimeter and defensive rebounding. This Spider team will have many offensive weapons and should be one of the better outside shooting UR teams in memory. But if they can't stop penetration off the dribble and open the bigs up to nonstop help situations (and corresponding foul trouble) and can't get one-and-done stops on defense consistently, the offensive efficiency becomes completely neutralized. __________________ Spider Fever...it's spreading.

10-31-2012, 11:11 AM	#19 (permalink)
TheCobra 6th Man Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 334 Rep Power: 9521	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) Agree on Richmond. They will be a player in that second grouping of teams, which is where the intrigue will be this year. Two or three of VCU/SJU/Temple/SLU will likely establish themselves atop the league. The interesting race is going to be for that 4 and 5 spots, which sound like they might come with tickets to the dance this year. Richmond is among the best in that next group, in my view. They can shoot and they are well-coached. Lil KA 2.0 is going to have a huge year. Last edited by TheCobra; 10-31-2012 at 01:16 PM.

10-31-2012, 12:09 PM	#20 (permalink)
AdamtheFlyer Star Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 4,819 Rep Power: 157851	Keep in mind, KenPom preseason numbers have nothing to do with predicting standings. Sent from my DROIDX using VerticalSports.Com App __________________ Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism. Last edited by AdamtheFlyer; 10-31-2012 at 12:20 PM.

10-31-2012, 02:23 PM	#23 (permalink)
El Shaqtus KVBL's Resident Old Fart Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: St. Louis Metro Posts: 6,284 Rep Power: 1817431	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) Glad this gets updated. I was still thinking SLU was 122. Inside SLU joke. __________________ Mom, thanks for everything. RIP Coach Rick Majerus 12/1/12. You were the one that said it was OK to think big at SLU. You were right. KVBL Lexington Kings 2023 KVBL Champions: St. Louis Warriors (El Shaqtus) 2026 KVBL First Loser

11-02-2012, 03:01 PM	#25 (permalink)
SpiderDave19 Player Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 912 Rep Power: 48590	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) Lasalle belongs behind Butler and Umass, and Saint Joe's....though maybe not that far behind.. And they belong close to Richmond. Yeah, yeah, yeah.....Lasalle beat Umass twice, but over the course of 35 games Umass was better and will be again this year, in my opinion.....and everyone else's opinion outside of ExplorerLand.

11-02-2012, 04:00 PM	#27 (permalink)
AdamtheFlyer Star Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 4,819 Rep Power: 157851	Come on, Steve, don't get your hopes up. You know the referees won't let La Salle succeed. Sent from my DROIDX using VerticalSports.Com App __________________ Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

11-03-2012, 09:16 AM	#29 (permalink)
mateer Veteran Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: The Big Easy Posts: 1,140 Rep Power: 554202	Re: Ken Pomeroy's Preseason National Rankings (7 A-10's in top 64) I hate it when I'm more optimistic than the experts, and that rarely happens... but this year I'm bullish on the Spiders. I think we'll be very good. __________________ poker

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