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Old 11-13-2012, 06:24 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Well, VCU just picked up a suck factor loss. Seven point favorites at home.
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Old 11-13-2012, 06:33 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Called this UMASS87. Revenge game underestimated. It seemed to me we had more turnovers than our opponents for the first time in a very long time and shot just over 50% from the charity strike-aweful-Reddic had a huge game with like 22 pts inside but all that talk of better shooting guards than last year did not translate much tonight. Shockers got balanced scoring and handled havouc rather well having faced it now a few times. Not looking forward to Memphis next week at all.
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Old 11-14-2012, 04:22 AM   #33 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games


'A10 Suck Factor' Games:

Code:
                                        
                      Favored             Venue     Point    Underdog           A10 Team
No.   Date            A10 Team            Location  Spread   Opponent           Result

 1.   Nov. 10, 2012   George Washington    Home      – 3     Youngstown State   Lost 80-73
 2.   Nov. 13, 2012   VCU                  Home      – 7     Wichita State      Lost 53-51
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:02 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

This thread is so stupid....it's not a SUCK FACTOR, it's called SPORTS. Favored teams don't win every game.

Do we have a thread for A10 "Upset Wins"?

The A10 is a strong league, there is no "Suck factor". One of our better teams lost to a decent team yesterday, and one of our mediocre teams lost to a team that looks pretty damn good out of the gates. These losses are indicative of nothing.
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:24 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

I will withhold judgment of Wichita State until they've played more games. I saw nothing yesterday that led me to believe that they are a particularly good team, though.
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:26 AM   #36 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Dave, we all understand that. It's just a term of art that's been in use around these parts for many years. I'll grant you that it's original use didn't apply to every game in which a favored (or otherwise "predicted to win") A10 team lost. IIRC, it was a more general term that applied to those inexplicable losses that, while all teams experience them, seemed to plague our beloved A10. In more recent years, it has been applied more generally. It's just another thing certain people track here. I wouldn't get too exercised over it.
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:46 AM   #37 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by UMass87 View Post
I will withhold judgment of Wichita State until they've played more games. I saw nothing yesterday that led me to believe that they are a particularly good team, though.
Wichita State has been good for the last 3 years, really improved under their current coaching staff. Not as experienced this season, but they'll be there come season's end with at least an NIT bid. Hey they can't be that bad - they just went to VCU and knocked them off.

This thread is virtually pointless. If you're in to sticking it to a particular rival when they lose a game they should win, for example just throwing this out there.. let's say a Dayton fan wants to stick it to X if they lose one at Cintas. Oh wait. That's what the thread IS about? Silly me, I didn't see that. Who started this thread? Muddy who? Oh I'm sorry I got lost in 25 pages of cut and paste trying to read the thread.

Just give it up already. It says something when your team's biggest rivalry game all year is against X, but X's biggest rivalry game is Cincy. Shows where they place Dayton on the totem pole of competition.
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Old 11-14-2012, 05:51 AM   #38 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games


Muddy's Observations:

(1) Any given Atlantic 10 team helps the A10's Conference RPI Ranking by not losing games they are supposed to win.

(2) The converse is also true.

(3) A review of previous college basketball seasons shows that in general, conferences with higher Conference RPI Rankings get more NCAA Tournmament 'at large' invitations than conferences with lower Conference RPI Rankings.

(4) If the criteria for an 'A10 Suck Factor' games was not objective and well-defined, there would be countless, unending arguments over whether any given game was an 'A10 Suck Factor' game or not.

(5) Therfore, I decided to use the following objective criteria for the purposes of this thread:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post

The only factors that are relevant for the purposes of recognition on this thread are:
(1) The game must be played during the 2012-13 regular season.

(2) The game must be played against a non-conference opponent

(3) The Atlantic 10 team must be favored to win the game according to the latest spread posted on this Atlantic 10 message board.

(4) The Atlantic 10 team must lose the game.

If you do not like the information posted on this thread, then please stop reading it.

BTW, the RPI link in my signature line is updated daily and lists the current Conference RPI Rankings.

The Atlantic 10 (15-10) is in seventh place this morning.

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Old 11-14-2012, 06:01 AM   #39 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Wait Muddy...

So you took a undefined term that has bounced around on this board for years. Created your own arbitrary definition for what it means - and since you were the 1st one to post your definition, anyone who has any other opinion is 'wrong' and subject to your scorn?

BTW - I see that you make no mention to point spreads in your interpretation. So any non-conf game where an A10 team loses at home when they are a 1 point favorite, is a 'suck factor' loss? Yeah - THAT makes sense.

BTW #2 - I love your "the only factors that are relevant..." statement at the beginning of the thread. I guess that this means that you coined the term? ...and are the definitive source for what it means?
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:04 AM   #40 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Muddy's Observations:

blah blah blah
spew spew spew
vomit
blecchhh
In typical Muddy fashion.. he of course attempts to bury a post that points out the height of his idiocy. Let me play that game too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brownindians85
This thread is virtually pointless. If you're in to sticking it to a particular rival when they lose a game they should win, for example just throwing this out there.. let's say a Dayton fan wants to stick it to X if they lose one at Cintas. Oh wait. That's what the thread IS about? Silly me, I didn't see that. Who started this thread? Muddy who? Oh I'm sorry I got lost in 25 pages of cut and paste trying to read the thread.

Just give it up already. It says something when your team's biggest rivalry game all year is against X, but X's biggest rivalry game is Cincy. Shows where they place Dayton on the totem pole of competition.
I don't like you, I don't like your posts, your style, anything about you. You are an arrogant, childish, and immature hot air bag who's good with the ctrl-C and ctrl-V on your keyboard. People like you make me hate the fine insitution of Dayton merely by association. This thread pretty much captures you in a nutshell. Pathetic.
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Old 11-14-2012, 06:06 AM   #41 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by pongbaba View Post
Wait Muddy...
So any non-conf game where an A10 team loses at home when they are a 1 point favorite, is a 'suck factor' loss?
Pong, don't even encourage this guy. But you are absolutely correct as most books give you 3 for being home court.
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Old 11-14-2012, 09:22 AM   #42 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrownIndians85 View Post
...
This thread is virtually pointless. ...
I agree. VCU is my second favorite team in the A10 so I am somewhat disappointed by the loss. I do think Wichita State is a well-coached team and I agree they will be at least NIT-bound in March.
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Old 11-15-2012, 03:00 AM   #43 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Quote:
Originally Posted by owlfan2272 View Post

Re: 11/17 A-10 Games - Post # 1


St. Bonaventure (-4.5) plays CANISIUS at 4 pm

72-69 Canisius over St. Bonaventure

'A10 Suck Factor' Games:

Code:
                                           Venue    Point                         A10 Team       Loss
No.   Date            Favored A10 Team    Location  Spread   Underdog Opponent     Result       Margin

 1.   Nov. 10, 2012   George Washington     Home    – 3      Youngstown State    Lost 80-73    7 points
 2.   Nov. 13, 2012   VCU                   Home    – 7      Wichita State       Lost 53-51    2 points
 3.   Nov. 14, 2012   Saint Louis           Home    – 14½    Santa Clara         Lost 74-62   12 points
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
4. Nov. 17, 2012 St. Bonaventure Away - 4½ Canisius Lost 72-69 3 points[/b][/code]

The only factors that are relevant for the purposes of recognition on this thread are:
(1) The game must be played during the 2012-13 regular season.

(2) The game must be played against a non-conference opponent.

(3) The Atlantic 10 team must be favored to win the game according to the latest point spread posted on this Atlantic 10 message board.

(4) The Atlantic 10 team must lose the game.

Last edited by Muddy Waters; 11-17-2012 at 04:00 PM. Reason: formatting correction.
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Old 11-15-2012, 05:57 AM   #44 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

I'll say this, there probably is a point to this thread (though it may differ from Muddy's point when he made it) The A-10 suck factor has been in WH's predictions for as long as I can remember. WH claims its been 5-6 years, and that he borrowed it from somewhere else, and in fact its generic enough that all conferences have some sort of "suck" factor. It seems like WH applies about 1-2 extra losses a year due to the "A-10 suck factor", so in a conference of 16 teams that's roughly 24 "suck factor" losses this season. Is that too high, too low, or about right? Where did WH get his 1-2 extra losses a season from? His Gut? Historical data? Define the "A-10 suck factor" as you like, keep track of it as you like, but as a huge fan of WH's work, I'd love to know how accurate his 1-2 games per team is.

I think the problem here, and the problem I see often on this board, is that opposing fans take their negative attitude of Muddy and his "style" and critize him even when there is substance to one of his ideas. If he's keeping track of it, then I think he gets to define what an "a-10 suck factor" looks like. His method seems as arbitrary as any other method. If you don't like it, create your own definetion and keep track of it yourself. If you don't like the topic as a whole, then ignore the trhead. Heck, if you don't like Muddy put him on ignore and enjoy your day. There is no sense in letting someone drive you crazy when you have the option to ignore that person.
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Old 11-15-2012, 09:43 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Re: 'A10 Suck Factor' Games

Medford,

I am not all that “scientific” when it comes to adding “suck factor” losses. (-:

In fact, I didn’t create idea of adding five suck factor losses to each year’s preseason forecast. Somebody who started our OOC tracking thread did that.

The current OOC thread at the top of the page lists my record for the past five years (see the bottom of this post for the results).

Aside from 2011, when both the league and I had a bad year, I’ve generally been close in my predictions.

The point of my forecast is not to be right. I am simply trying to make a reasonable guesstimate, based on past patterns of league performance, as to how well the A-10 is likely to perform out of conference.

From that forecast we can hopefully deduce a decent idea of how NCAA tournament teams we might get. And it allows us to track … whether we are on track!

Here is my basic formula.

1)The A-10 loses most games on the road to BCS teams. Only our very best programs tend to win some of these games, usually against weaker BCS squads.

Last year, for example, A-10 teams went 3-17 on the road at BCS schools. Only wins were over BC (UMass), Wake (Richmond) and Vanderbilt (Xavier).

2)The A-10 loses most games on the road to good midmajor programs outside the BCS. Only our very best teams win these games regularly.

3)The A-10 tends to split games vs BCS teams on neutral sites and win a majority of neutral-site games vs midmajors.

The league did better, 8-4, at neutral sites last year vs. BCS teams,, mostly by beating programs that were clearly down (Georgia, Ga Tech, Wake, BC, Nova, Penn State).

4)The A-10 beats most midmajor programs on our home court.

5)The A-10 beats most low-major teams no matter where the games are played. The exceptions involve are worst teams (Fordham and Rhody last season).

5)Almost every A-10 teams suffers one truly unexpected loss each year. Our worst teams suffer 2-3 of these losses.

Now, I don’t go simply by a set of rules. These are general guidelines.

Among other factors, I take into account a team’s recent performance. For instance, Duquesne under Ron Everhart usually exceeded my expectations in the noncon schedule. Yet Dukes coaches before him always did worse.

I also use Blue Ribbon to scout teams I am less familiar with. Matchups can influence my prediction.

Finally, I go over the list of each teams’ noncon games and mark them accordingly. The dates of games could be a factor. If a team is playing very soon after coming home from a neutral-site tourney, there’s often a letdown.
So, a lot of alchemy.


Past Years:
2012: -3 (+2 after AOSF)
2011: -16 (-11 after AOSF)
2010: +5 (+10 after AOSF)
2009: -6 (-1 after AOSF)
2008: +1 (+6 after AOSF)
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