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Old 11-20-2012, 12:06 PM   #136 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Let me clarify: When I say contend...in specific to football. I am strictly referring to the amount of teams in the conference you would consider respectable or as a potentially tough game if you had them on the schedule. I don't get into BCS, because right or wrong in my opinion the BCS and how they administer bowl games at its current state is a joke, confusing and does not work. Now that they are moving on to a tournament style of play. I personally will hold BCS titles in higher regard. But to your point if were are talking BCS titles then yes the BIG 10 is not at the level of the SEC and will not be with their recent additions.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:08 PM   #137 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

nothing will be known until we know whats happening with Louisville, I think if Louisville moves then the Big East will not be the way it is now (probably will survive because of name)
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:19 PM   #138 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by twisted3829 View Post
nothing will be known until we know whats happening with Louisville, I think if Louisville moves then the Big East will not be the way it is now (probably will survive because of name)
Louisville has made it public they want to leave. It is not a matter of "if they will", it is "when"...

That will come sooner than later as the dominoes will start to fall again.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:28 PM   #139 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Louisville wants to leave sure, but they don't have a natural place to go yet. ACC doesn't want them due to acadamics, big 10 obviously would have taken them by now if they wanted them, big 12 is the only real fit but they don't look like they want to expand currently.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:30 PM   #140 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by SDW View Post
Exactly. The BE brand is still stronger than the A10 brand or any other non-BCS brand, at least for basketball. Why would they give that up? They will do whatever it takes, and if that means poaching football CUSA type schools and keeping a little bit of extra money in the short term, they will do it. If it means branding itself as the 'classic' Big East - an east coast, basketball-first conference, they will do it. And in that instance, having access to MSG, Verizon Center in DC, etc. becomes much more of a positive for television purposes. St. John's/Georgetown at MSG/Verizon or GW/Lasalle at Smith/Gola? Easy choice for television people.

If the BE is proactive, they might be positioning themselves where we want the A10 to be at in 5 years - the elite non-football conference. Say what you like about the recent quality of some of those programs, but they can bounce back easier than say Fordham or Lasalle. Just look at Providence's recruiting class this year. Most A10 schools would have killed for it.
The BE brand absolutely is stronger than the A10 brand.

If the money is there via a football hybrid strategy, the BE hoops schools won't give that up as well.

If they can retain relationships with UL, UC, Temple and Memphis, regardless of what's otherwise in the cash register at that point, they may still stay the course.

Now, let's have a little potential reality seep into the picture:

I didn't make up the numbers I presented in the earlier post. BE football schools presently receive $4 million. Not only are they not going to get to a better agreement, they may end up now going into reverse on the money. The loss of UConn, in particular, truly destroys a lot of the basketball valuation for the agreement, as it is a marquee BE program with major market presence. C-USA schools receive about $2 million per year. BE football, with the departures of Rutgers and UConn, will literally contain former and existing C-USA schools and will otherwise look like C-USA in the eyes of the television executives, especially if Boise, SDSU and Houston say to hell with it in the next few weeks.

So, IF the Big4 truly escalate, creating an opportunity for UL to leave, I'll submit that will finally tip the scale, IF the economics of separation can take place between the basketball schools and the football schools. The football schools that remain are going to have to solve for positioning to become a conference that can compete for the one slot left available to them for making it to the golden sandbox.

Otherwise, the basketball schools, having put the incremental money on one side of the scale to weigh it against league composition on the other, may actually come to the conclusion that it is in their best interests to begin to rebuild a hoops-centric brand, positioning to become the best hoops conference outside of the major all-sports conferences.

DO YOU HANG ON TO THE FOOTBALL SCHOOLS FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE? Maybe, but only if the money makes that worth while, and that is becoming less of a reality. No, if you see that there is nothing BUT instability and further defections on the horizon, making the money even worse and the brand weakened. Absolutely not, if you see all that, plus find yourselves in a room with your conference partners, concluding that it's time to separate for your respective good reasons and you find a way to do that that makes sense.

The writing is on the wall. Look at this:

UL

----

Temple
UC
Memphis
Houston
USF
UCF
SMU

----

Boise State
SDSU
Navy

Just addressing the basketball side of it, this isn't WVU going to the B12, where the incremental money easily covers all the travel costs. Providence golf to USF? On $1 million per year:

The Big East's current basketball media rights deal with ESPN and CBS expires after the 2012-13 academic year, while the football deal with ESPN expires after the 2013-14 academic year.

The Big East's current six-year media rights deal is worth $3.12 million annually for each of the eight full members (I'm off; I thought it was $4mm) and $1.5 million annually for each of the eight non-football members. The eight football members split $13 million; the 16 basketball members split $24 million.

In April of 2011, former Big East commissioner John Marinatto recommended the Big East accept a nine-year deal from ESPN worth $1.17 billion, an average of $130 million annually. That deal would have earned full members $13.8 million a year and non-football members $2.43 million a year. However, the league's presidents voted to turn it down.

At that time, that offer was comparable to the ACC's media rights deal (then worth $155 million annually), but the Big East's presidents gambled they could get a better deal by waiting until now.

It's uncertain what the Big East's new media rights deal will bring. Media estimates have varied drastically, putting the Big East's media rights worth between $60 million to $130 million annually.

Based on a 14-team football league (with four football-only members) and a 17-team basketball league, a $60 million deal per year would be worth $4.06 million each for the 10 full members; $3 million each for the four football-only members (Boise State, San Diego State, Navy and TBA); and $1.06 million each for the seven non-football members.

A $130 million deal per year would be worth $8.8 million each for the 10 full members; $6.5 million each for the four football-only members and $2.3 million each for the seven non-football members.

By comparison, last month the Big 12 signed a 13-year media rights deal with ESPN and Fox worth $20 million annually per school.

The other current BCS AQ conferences -- the Pac-12, Big Ten, SEC and ACC -- each have media rights deals worth between $18 million and $21 million annually per school.


This excerpt was from a dated article that could not foresee the loss of Rutgers and UConn. So, rightfully assuming that the low end of the range is the place to assume from, given that more bad news already has bashed the BE, going from $1.5 million per school to $1.06 million per school to < $1 million per school, as compared to $350k per A10 school, all while being tied to this hodgepodge that will continue to change anyway, having football as its primary driving interest and not basketball as a brand to manage, is a road to hell. Besides, again assuming an ability to retain certain BE assets for basketball, the right kind of hoops-centric combination will - should - produce a package per school of between $350k and $1 million, while jettisoning the toxic attachement to football schools.

The decision lies within the math, and otherwise is impacted by brand management and desired, more logical associations.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:38 PM   #141 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

BTW, Boise once had an expectation for $8 million per year from its new affiliation with the BE.

It would be safe to guess that they'll now be looking at something that looks much closer to what they presently receive from their existing conference.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:43 PM   #142 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Couple of thoughts:

I did the math on udpride yesterday based upon an article and a couple of "rumors(?)" w/n the thread. Breaking it down, and assuming some of the rumors/reports/beliefs mentioned in that article are true, the non football schools in the Big East would be "lucky" to get $1.4 mil to $2.0 mil a team based upon a 15 member basketball conference. That isn't all that signficantly higher than the A-10 is getting w/ it latest deal IIRC ($1.0 mil a team roughly?) A couple more bumps in the road, ie SDSU & Boise heading back to the MWC, Houston & SMU going back to CUSA or to the MWC, Louisville or other teams moving to the B12/ACC and that "lucky" to get becomes a whole lot smaller.

Lets assume (a large assumption I know) that the all catholic conference is a viable option on the table and all it would take was Notre Dame's saying yes to make it a reality. Notre Dame didn't shy away b/c they they didn't want to be cornered into a religious affiliation, they choose the ACC b/c Notre Dame has what very few catholic have, namely well funded and successful Olympic programs beyond basketball. Notre Dame has very successful swimming, soccer, baseball, hockey, fencing, lacrosse, etc... programs. The ACC is pretty strong in its overall olympic profile, something the all catholic conference couldn't match.

I can't speak to other catholic universities, but at UD, there is both a strong catholic presence if you want it, while also a very non-religious atmosphere walking around campus or withing the student living areas. There are many non catholics that attend UD, there are many non catholic UD fans. Personally, if the catholic conference were ever to emerge, it would emerge mostly as a source of similarly financed universities w/ similar commitments to athletics and mainly success in men's basketball. It would form to serve as a talking point for catholicism, and I'll assume it wouldn't be an explit by-rule for membership. The schools most often mentioned line up b/c they have similar budgets, similar fan support, similar success or dreams in basketball, similar basketball histories, most, if not all are located w/n metropolitian areas, few have D-1 football aspirations, some don't even have football programs in existance.

w/ that said, the short term result, should UConn or Louisville part ways, should the western expansion fail to exist is that the bball schools need to grab power. They need to realize dreams of a big pay day thanks to being tied to big time football programs are dwindling. Memphis is great in basketball, but being tied to their football program isn't helping anyone at DePaul. Grab the power, disband football, invite all remaining teams to remain as a partners in everything outside of football, if those schools move on, good luck and expand, when appropriate, with basketball at the forfront rather than football programs an entire country away.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:48 PM   #143 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by WH View Post
Sure, that's always possible. The Catholic-private school league. On paper it hold great appeal for its symmetry.
One, I think any new league will have to go to 16 teams.
Two, letting the Big East teams control the formation of the new league will put Xavier and Dayton in the backseat. Right now they have big sway in the A-10. I'd rather call the shots then let other schools do that.
Three, I am not sure a mostly Catholic league will prove to be a good marketing tool in the future as American society increasingly becomes less religious.
Ultimately, personal relationships will determine who ends up where. I doubt Maryland would ever have ended up in the Big 10 if is leadership were still steeped in the world of the ACC.
One, the FULL Catholic League won't happen, because there's no reason for them to leave the Big East. If the ACC raids SOME (Georgetown, St. John's and Nova) and ESPN wants to stick it to the Big East football group, then a scaled down Catholic League (with some non-Catholic schools) could happen.
Two, ESPN calls the shots of the ACC additions; the A-10 only calls the shots if ESPN isn't interested establishing the TV deal with remaining BE Hoops Only schools. Then we'd offer those four a place; and then some of us would have the itch to break off and leave some of the bottom of the league behind.
Three, Agreed. It is a BASKETBALL conference, not a CATHOLIC conference. Which, if a version of it comes to fruition, you wouldn't exclude someone [VCU or Richmond] solely because they aren't Catholic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by twisted3829 View Post
Tough to continue big east football name when you lose everyone. Uconn and Rutgers are definitely gone, Louisville wants out, SDSU and Boise st are backing out, I expect Houston and SMU to back out if all that happens then you are left with Cincy, south Florida, temple and navy for football and they won't be able to bring in any big schools. At best they are a cusa or mac level league.
The Big East name will go on, even as the league looks more and more like old C-USA. The middle doesn't dissolve, the bottom does. They'll simply promote from other conferences.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkamaniac View Post
If the Big East does, in fact, implode and VU comes crawling on its hands and knees to the A10 for a new home, I'm sorry but, regardless of what they bring to the table (which is pretty significant), I would be only happy to tell them to pound sand. My, my, how the mighty will have fallen.
But there's no chance that ever happens. Villanova would:
-- be invited to the ACC to help them increase their market share rather than lose it.
-- remain in the Big East with the six other basketball-only schools if the ACC only takes UConn.
-- (highly unlikely) be in a new basketball league that ESPN advocates, and they'd invite Nova and not St. Joe's.

Quote:
Originally Posted by owlfan2272 View Post
I don't think it's as certain or likely that it dissolves like some here but I will admit the chances are higher than they have ever been. There will be football in the Big East. The problem is it may involve a bunch of CUSA type teams. The contract will still slightly be more than an A-10 contract and you have to factor in buyouts as well. So financially which has been the decision maker for every decision so far it would favor the catholic schools sticking it out where they are and poaching from the A-10. UMass may get the first decision coming up and if they announce they are leaving for the Big East that may start the trend of poaching. I know A-10 is in a position of strength but the money still slightly leans the other way and that has been a powerful incentive so far.
It all hinges on ESPN's decisions for content.
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Old 11-20-2012, 12:48 PM   #144 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Rutgers Joins the Big Ten, Leaving Big East Behind

Rutgers is joining the Big Ten, leaving the Big East behind and cashing in on the school's investment in a football program that only 10 years ago seemed incapable of competing at the highest level.

The school announced its decision Tuesday at a campus news conference attended by Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, Rutgers President Robert Barchi and athletic director Tim Perenetti.

"The Big Ten is really where Rutgers belongs," Barchi said.

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireSto...-east-17768431
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Old 11-20-2012, 01:37 PM   #145 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The Big East name is not what has value. The schools within it is where the value has always been. The name is just a placeholder. A couple more moves and the Big East will effectively be Conference-USA Expanded Edition V2.0. The value will be a shell of what it once was, commanding smaller dollars than it once did. There is still a demand for programming. They will have a TV contract. But UCF vs SDSU in football is not going to command big dollars like Nebraska v Michigan.

There is virtually nothing eastern anymore about the Big East as a football conference. If UConn and Louisville bolt -- the two next schools most wanting for a new league -- the league blue blood is now the University of Cincinnati. Boise has football and nothing else. UC at least has a competitive AD.

If you're top dog in a football oriented conference is UC, you're in an irrelevant conference compared to the other superconferences. You are no longer important and no longer have leverage and no longer have a seat at the table.

The end is coming. When things collapse, they collapse quickly. Maryland and Rutgers really came out of left field. I expect more left-field moves in the coming weeks. Things will not slow down. You cant stand inside a burning building and wait to be saved. Every fallen domino forces another domino to react. Sometimes many.

Every time the Big East loses a member, it replaces that lost member with a lesser replacement. The Big East can only do that for so long until the product is simply unsupported and not viable. When you lose Pitt, West Virginia, Syracuse, Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Notre Dame -- and you replace them with Navy, UCF, Houston, and San Diego State -- you are the Baghdad Bob of the college football world. You can tell yourself whatever you want to allay your concerns, but the city is burning down around you whether you accept it or not. Things got so bad, TCU left the BE before they joined. Others are now considering it as well.

Just a matter of time now. Not if, but when. When a league charter school like Maryland leaves the bronze bunker of the ACC for money, you know we're approaching the nuclear option. When a nobody like Rutgers leaves for the Big10 for nothing more than the Big10s opportunity to buy a market share of NY/NJ TV households for league programming, you know we're approaching the nuclear option. Its now kill or be killed. There is no more due diligence - not enough time.

Its all happening.
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Old 11-20-2012, 01:44 PM   #146 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by SDW View Post
So the basketball outliers in all this are schools like Temple and Memphis - schools with football but possibly left with no affiliation in such if the BE disintegrates?

Would it be worth is for schools like these to be in a conference with the likes of St. John's, G'town and 'Nova just for the BE brand and the ability to also be in a big-time basketball conference? I think the answer is yes.

The question is are there 8 schools like this that could partner as the football side of the BE so that the league can stay together - worth it to the bball schools for the ability to remain as the BE and as a basketball power, and worth it for the football schools b/c they are schools that wouldn't get invites to the superconferences?

Temple
Memphis
UMass
Navy
?
?
?
?

Where I think people are going astray in their thinking is b/c of the wide swath the BE tried to take to keep AQ status - going after TCU, Boise, etc. If they cut those plans and just stick with mostly East Coast teams with good/very good hoops programs and who also happen to have football (but are on the wrong side of the big boys) then I think the BE can endure. It might feel like a BE/CUSA hybrid, but compared to potential alternatives, it seems okay.

Let me ask Temple fans - would you rather be in a conference with the BE bball schools for football and hoops and share football revenue with them or have the BE dissolve and look to find a new home? I don't know that I need an answer, actually.

Also, anyone who thinks the A10 should take Depawful needs to remember that they play the majority of their games 10 miles from campus in front of 2000 people. Chicago is a pro town primarily, don't get caught up in the market viability of a dead weight program whose only press is about their terrible-ness.
In a season (2011-2012) when DePaul went 12-19 their average home attendance was 7,740 (not 2,000). This average would have placed them in the top 5 among A-10 members (with only Dayton [12,154], Xavier [10,155], Temple [8,165], and St. Louis [7,757]) out-drawing the Blue Deamons!!!
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Old 11-20-2012, 01:50 PM   #147 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

PS - I thoroughly enjoy how virtually every single report about Maryland and Rutgers begins with a line like the AP's "Just when it looked as if there would be peace, that the conferences were done realigning…" or something to that effect.

There's NEVER had conference alignment "peace." It's a constant evolution. There's been at least one change in conference membership every season since 1978 (Pac-12 expansion). Most relatively significant.
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Old 11-20-2012, 01:53 PM   #148 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by BigE View Post
Rutgers Joins the Big Ten, Leaving Big East Behind

Rutgers is joining the Big Ten, leaving the Big East behind and cashing in on the school's investment in a football program that only 10 years ago seemed incapable of competing at the highest level.

The school announced its decision Tuesday at a campus news conference attended by Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, Rutgers President Robert Barchi and athletic director Tim Perenetti.

"The Big Ten is really where Rutgers belongs," Barchi said.

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireSto...-east-17768431
Barchi's comment is so laughable as to make me hope Rutgers goes 0-forever in the Big 10. Rutgers is a mid/bottom level player in the current Big East, has been in hoops and football with the exception of a few Schiano-led years.
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Old 11-20-2012, 02:29 PM   #149 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Rutgers may be going to a BCS bowl this season. Since Schiano got things rolling, they've been a middle to upper tier Big East football school for the last 6-8 seasons. There was the 2010 blip when everything fell apart, but aside from that they've been middle of the pack and above since that time frame. How that translates into B10 football I don't know, but the appear to be a program that has found some stability after a very, very long period of futility.

At any rate, they weren't brought in for their football program per say, they were brought in for the number of cable subscribers in the area and the increased fees the B10 can collect for their B10 network. Safe to say, rutgers was worth more to the B10 than any other conference by a long shot due to the B10 network. It doesn't really matter how many people in the NY/NJ market tune in the B10 network, just that the B10 can collect the high fees from all of those subscribers.
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Old 11-20-2012, 02:32 PM   #150 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

No kidding. I can't comprehend this move. Rutgers will be in last place for everything in the B10.
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