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Old 11-20-2012, 02:45 PM   #151 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by Chetburger View Post
The Big East name is not what has value. The schools within it is where the value has always been. The name is just a placeholder. A couple more moves and the Big East will effectively be Conference-USA Expanded Edition V2.0. The value will be a shell of what it once was, commanding smaller dollars than it once did. There is still a demand for programming. They will have a TV contract. But UCF vs SDSU in football is not going to command big dollars like Nebraska v Michigan.

There is virtually nothing eastern anymore about the Big East as a football conference.
That's all relatively true, but the Big East brand as a basketball conference does have value. Even without Pitt, WVU, Syracuse; they have Louisville, Cincinnati, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette, Memphis, Temple and St. John's. The Big East becomes C-USA 2.0 if/when Villanova and Georgetown leave.

The pertinent discussion to us is "How does the A-10 capitalize on this shifting landscape?"

We've always been at the mercy of the Big East because ESPN was so heavily invested in them.
Now, we're at the mercy of ESPN, since their negotiations with the Big East haven't resulted in a new deal.
If the A-10 powers that be were pro-active and called ESPN and encouraged them to steer the ACC towards a 18-team hybrid route so we could usurp "The Big East" and slide up to the #6 conference, that would be a worthwhile endeavor.

Honestly, if we could somehow convince the ESPN/ACC that Notre Dame needs a travel partner and they took DEPAUL with Georgetown and Villanova? That would be ideal. (highly unlikely but ideal).

The A-10 needs to plot and scheme and see if we can make this happen:

An 18-team ACC for basketball:
Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake, Georgia Tech, Miami, Fla St, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, UConn; Notre Dame, DePaul, Georgetown, Villanova.

An 18-team A10 for basketball:
St. John's, Fordham, Seton Hall, Providence, Rhode Island, LaSalle, St. Joseph's, George Washington, George Mason
Butler, Dayton, Duquesne, Marquette, Richmond, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure, VCU, Xavier

A 12-team Big East for basketball:
Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, SMU, UCF, USF, UMass, UAB, (three of: Houston, Tulsa, ECU, Tulane, Charlotte, Buffalo).

We'd be the #6 basketball conference in the country at worst. More like #5 or #4.
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Old 11-20-2012, 02:47 PM   #152 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by uz2b-len View Post
No kidding. I can't comprehend this move. Rutgers will be in last place for everything in the B10.
The answer you seek can be found in the wisdom of the words by the great 20th century philosopher Method Man:
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Old 11-20-2012, 02:48 PM   #153 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by uz2b-len View Post
No kidding. I can't comprehend this move. Rutgers will be in last place for everything in the B10.
This statement show you know very little about Big Ten football. Top of the Big East is at least equivalent to middle of the pack Big 10 and probably higher.
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Old 11-20-2012, 02:50 PM   #154 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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No kidding. I can't comprehend this move. Rutgers will be in last place for everything in the B10.
Indiana football and Nebraska basketball.
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Old 11-20-2012, 02:56 PM   #155 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by uz2b-len View Post
No kidding. I can't comprehend this move. Rutgers will be in last place for everything in the B10.
Consider two things:
  1. The phrase "mutually beneficial" - more dollars for the B1G, more dollars and ability to improve the product for Rutgers; and
  2. What is now will not necessarily be what is in the future. How much respect did you have for Oregon football as recently as a decade ago?
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Old 11-20-2012, 03:06 PM   #156 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Think many of you are mistaken in your opinion of Rutgers' athletics. The FB program will at least be at the middle of the pack. with a move to the B-10+, they'll keep some area recruits that now commit to SEC, Big 12, ACC & B-10 conferences. The women's bb team is capable of competing for a conference championship as would wrestling right now. The men's bb program has a ways to go, but they're heading in the right direction.

Even if RU were to go winless in Big 10 football for 10 years,based on the contracts in place, they still earn more money from the B 10 tv contract in one year then the bb onlies in the Big East will earn in 10 years. In addition they and Maryland become members of a research consortium that will generate additional monies.

Last edited by College Hoops; 11-20-2012 at 03:11 PM. Reason: omitted
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Old 11-20-2012, 03:34 PM   #157 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I am not sure ESPN will call the shots on Big East basketball. If the A-10 mostly sticks together, the league will have leverage.

Keep in mind, ESPN did not create all these big superconferences. They are losing some TV and rights. Nor did ESPN want to see the old Big East break up.

That said, money talks. We see this everyday. So, who knows. Maybe some A-10 schools will peel off.

Ultimately, I think Cincy, Memphis, Louisville and UConn all find new homes in the superconferences. That means the BE basketball only schools have to figure out what to do.

If the A-10 acts fast, at the right time, ESPN doesnt enter into the question. Strike a deal, then go to ESPN.

Or the BE basketball schools will strike fast - and hold together. Which ever side holds together best and acts faster will have the leverage, in my view.

We'll see. One thing is for sure. The alignment of schools will never be close to the same again. As another poster pointed out, the college landscape has been changing since the late 1970s.

That will continue even after the superconferences form. Someone will get unhappy and eventually move to another conference. The dominoes will never stop falling ...
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Old 11-20-2012, 06:55 PM   #158 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

So we assume the ultimate goal is going to be 4x16 team conferences that play real football, some conference that wish they played real football, then schools like us that play college football because somebody 100 years ago thought it would be a good idea for us to play football.

We are all now making the assumption that the Pac12,Big10,Big XII and SEC will survive what will be called the conference wars. The ACC had a shot at it, but didn't take down the Big XII during the last round of realignment and will regret the day they didn't take kansas, kansas state,and 2 of iowa state, texas tech or baylor.

Currently the pac 12 needs 4 teams to hit this magical mythical place. With there being less then a quarter of schools that play BCS football west of the mississippi, they are going to have a limited supply of schools to pick from. it leaves the WCC schools,the western Big East schools, and BYU. I think that BYU and Hawaii make the cut for the 14, but then who do they want? these schools see themselves as the best this large area. claiming Nevada isn't going to help them at all, and while boise state has some football status right now, they aren't the educational institution that the other schools see themselves as. That leads me to believe that Kansas and Kansas state are the two most likely candidates for the western conference. They would be outliers but they bring in a strong football school, and kansas at least helps in basketball prestige, even if its football blows. I do understand that this double grab doesn't help the pac 16 network, but I can't see them going after texas tech or baylor.

The SEC can cherry pic the 2 that it wants most, and the Big 10, with its continuous state rule and AAU membership requirement, ends up forcing ND into the group for access to the championship (the reason ND folks have always said they would end up joining a conference). To fill the last spot the big 10 considers UVA. If for some reason ND still continues to get a seat at the table without joining a conference, then UNC gets that last Big 10 invite. The SEC avoids the other Florida schools, and focuses on football, so they look at VaTech and NC state. avoids the in state rival issues that would come with the stronger clemson or FSU football programs.
That then means that big XII has the flexibility to take in a large chunk of the still valuable ACC schools, since it has 8 openings. FSU,Clemson, Miami,probably make the cut easy, West Virginia needs a friend so Pitt makes it as well. that leaves 4 or 5 spots that Will come from UNC, Georgia tech,Wake forest,Duke,BC, Louisville, Syracuse, Uconn. I think since subscriber potential drives this, they don't leave syracuse and BC out of the super deal (this also neutralizes states that would be most likely to file antitrust lawsuits). so now we have 2 or 3 spots, with (UNC if still available) Georgia tech, wake forest, duke, louisville and Uconn fighting it out
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Old 11-20-2012, 07:01 PM   #159 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Curious minds would like to know more about the 1 year notice in reducing the exit fee from 2 to 1 million. Is that 1 year notice before the conference schedule?
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Old 11-20-2012, 07:18 PM   #160 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

One thing we haven't discussed here is the idea of establishing minimum standards for inclusion in the go-forward conference.

Why not do that now? That should be considered if the real goal is to create an optimal hoops-centric conference.

Is this a separate process from realignment, per se? Of course it is. Again, if the goal should be to create the strongest basketball conference possible outside of the power conferences, then pursuing this process in addition to realignment should be considered.
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:41 PM   #161 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Interesting article on this realignment topic.

http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/...ig_east_l.html
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Old 11-21-2012, 12:22 AM   #162 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by WH View Post
I am not sure ESPN will call the shots on Big East basketball.
If the A-10 mostly sticks together, the league will have leverage.

Keep in mind, ESPN did not create all these big superconferences. They are losing some TV and rights. Nor did ESPN want to see the old Big East break up.

If the A-10 acts fast, at the right time, ESPN doesnt enter into the question. Strike a deal, then go to ESPN.
There's no way the ACC makes a major move without input from ESPN. They didn't when they added Pitt and Syracuse. In fact, BC's athletic director said "ESPN told us what to do" (and later backtracked).

In 2011, the A-10 Conference had $10.2 million in total revenue. That's a number that includes, but isn't limited to our TV rights fees. That's $730,000 per school. The Big East hoops only schools are making $2 million per year EACH. There's no way they willingly leave the Big East without a TV Network promising them more money to do so.

The A-10 has no leverage. Our only shot to land schools without football that currently play in the Big East is if ESPN decides they can save money by encouraging an ACC hybrid and giving the A-10 more money than we get now to pick up the slack after dropping the remainder of the Big East.

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So we assume the ultimate goal is going to be 4x16 team conferences that play real football
Everyone says things like this, but the truth is, there was never six conferences of 12. Each conference is playing with a different set of expansion rules.

The ACC, SEC, Pac-12, and Big XII will have a point of diminishing returns. Adding someone else has to bring in more than their fair share of revenue, otherwise their addition doesn't justify splitting the pie extra ways. The Big Ten doesn't have diminishing returns on the horizon anytime soon. Since they make their revenue via subscription fees to BTN, they simply need new markets that would upgrade BTN's cable tier, so they can charge more per month. (In fact, the long-expected eventual departure of Big Time Football from the NCAA could actually be the Big Ten increasing to about 40 schools and turning itself into a pro sports league. It sounds crazy, but financially, they could do it).

The Pac-12 really has no where else to go. They've tried TWICE to add Texas & other Big XII schools. What four schools would improve the Pac-12 financially and pick the Pac-12 over other conferences? If UNLV, SDSU and UTEP were each 65-10 over five years like Boise State, maybe.

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Originally Posted by xudash View Post
One thing we haven't discussed here is the idea of establishing minimum standards for inclusion in the go-forward conference.

Why not do that now? That should be considered if the real goal is to create an optimal hoops-centric conference.

Is this a separate process from realignment, per se? Of course it is. Again, if the goal should be to create the strongest basketball conference possible outside of the power conferences, then pursuing this process in addition to realignment should be considered.
There's no way that's going to get passed by the presidents. No one is going to put their meal ticket in the #7 conference in the country in jeopardy based on performance. If they did pass minimum requirements, they'd be set so low that it wouldn't accomplish anything (like: "Ten straight years in single-digit wins")
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Old 11-21-2012, 05:02 AM   #163 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I think ESPN's influence has always been overstated. It's the bogeyman in every conversation about conference shakeups.

These changes are driven by a number of factors. TV money certainly plays a huge and singular role, and ESPN does have some influence, but personal relationships, markets, academic fits and other things are involved.

How did Rutgers and Maryland end up in the Big 10? A lot has to do with relationships. Maryland's top people have Big 10 backgrounds or ties. Ditto for Rutgers. See the following article.

http://www.mycentraljersey.com/artic...sey=nav%7Chead

Last edited by WH; 11-21-2012 at 07:14 AM.
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Old 11-21-2012, 06:09 AM   #164 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I'm trying to figure out where Temple ends up in all of this. As long as there is a Big East, I'd assume they stay there, as even in its diminished form, it is still a better option for them than the MAC/A-10 hybrid form.

If the BE does completely collapse, what then? The A-10 would assuredly take them back for all non-football sports. But would the MAC take them back for football? Would they be able to function as an independent? Would they have to shift all sports to C-USA or work out a football-only arrangement?

And while nobody is talking about it now, doesn't the ACC eventually have to take a look at them? The Big Ten has started moving into the East Coast. Even though it might only be wishful thinking that Temple could actually deliver it, does the ACC think "We need to capture the Philly market?"
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Old 11-21-2012, 06:19 AM   #165 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The Newark paper that covers Rutgers and Seton Hall (which obviously have different perspoectives) really puts a damper on those pining for all Catholic league. If true, the Big East could go on for several more years as an unstable hybrid.

Rutgers' move out of Big East leaves uncertain future for basketball-only members
By Brendan Prunty/The Star-Ledger The Star-Ledger
November 20, 2012
http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/...ig_east_l.html



While the common thought has always been that the league’s basketball-only schools would break off from the football schools, there doesn’t seem to be a sense of urgency for that to happen. The fear is that if the basketball-only schools were to break off it would force them into an atmosphere of decreased spending for their programs in order to fall in line with other non-football schools, such as those in the Atlantic 10.
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