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Old 11-21-2012, 06:25 AM   #166 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

WH and others have hinted at it, but how does the “blood is thicker than water” blend into all of this. ESPN was just a start up when they got in bed with the Big East. They have been joined at the hip ever since. A lot of the “Big East” rep was due to (and probably over hyped by) ESPN. A lot of the ESPN growth was likely due to the growth of the Big Least. Certainly the Benjamin’s rule, but at some point “family” comes into the picture. I doubt that ESPN ever lets the "Big East” go under….
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Old 11-21-2012, 06:49 AM   #167 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by TerryK_67 View Post
WH and others have hinted at it, but how does the “blood is thicker than water” blend into all of this. ESPN was just a start up when they got in bed with the Big East. They have been joined at the hip ever since. A lot of the “Big East” rep was due to (and probably over hyped by) ESPN. A lot of the ESPN growth was likely due to the growth of the Big Least. Certainly the Benjamin’s rule, but at some point “family” comes into the picture. I doubt that ESPN ever lets the "Big East” go under….
What? Seriously?

ESPN carried the Big East because of it's relationship with UCONN. Do you know where ESPN is located? Do you know the University that ESPN employs the most students from annually?

ESPN thought so much of the Big East that they let them walk without an agreement during the non-compete phase of contract decisions. Now the Big East can go talk to anyone. Would ESPN, and all their resources, really allow that?

Now the Big East is going to lose UCONN and probably, UL and Cincy, pretty quickly, as both have gone public about wanting to leave.

The remaining schools are not just worth it to ESPN, they have made that pretty clear.
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:02 AM   #168 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

More on UMass to the Big East.

http://ht.ly/ftniu

"The Big East UMass would be looking at would probably feature a football league of Temple, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, Navy, Houston and Southern Methodist. The basketball league includes Providence, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, Marquette and DePaul."

What a mess.
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:24 AM   #169 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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The Newark paper that covers Rutgers and Seton Hall (which obviously have different perspoectives) really puts a damper on those pining for all Catholic league. If true, the Big East could go on for several more years as an unstable hybrid.

Rutgers' move out of Big East leaves uncertain future for basketball-only members
By Brendan Prunty/The Star-Ledger The Star-Ledger
November 20, 2012
http://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/...ig_east_l.html



While the common thought has always been that the league’s basketball-only schools would break off from the football schools, there doesn’t seem to be a sense of urgency for that to happen. The fear is that if the basketball-only schools were to break off it would force them into an atmosphere of decreased spending for their programs in order to fall in line with other non-football schools, such as those in the Atlantic 10.
It all sounds logical, but we won't know what will be and will not be the best course of action for the basketball schools until we get to the following point:
  1. UConn's status with the BE is determined;
  2. Whether or not further expansion by the B4 results in the BE's loss of UL;
  3. Whether such expansion goes deep enough to result in the loss of UC; and
  4. Whether or not the new western additions to the BE change their mind, reinvigorating the MWC in the process (I don't know that they can without incurring exit cost).

Again, prior to Rutger's loss, one projection had the hoops schools' annual payout going from the existing $1.5 million to a little over $1 million. The television deal from here is going to take a major hit, losing those Rutgers and (most likely) UConn markets.

It would remain 3 things for me, as far as the decisioning process is concerned:
  • Annual payout
  • Brand Management
  • League composition (similar, like minded schools, having a shared agenda)

What great theatre all this makes.
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:41 AM   #170 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

One thing to remember in this entire realignment is that networks look at size of fanbase in addition to their percieved success. That is how many actual fan homes they will reach. Taking West Virginia,Pitt and Syracuse out of the picture cost the BE hundreds of thousands of households who cared about Big East basketball. BC was much less of a hit as it is a smaller school. Rutgers will subtract quite a few more. UConn becomes the biggest potential future casualty.
Look at the enrollment of the schools and then multiply by approximately 50 years worth of alumni to get the potential fan base. This "catholic conference" would have relatively small fanbases and therefore have much less value to the networks.
I have been in NYC many times during the BE tourney and cant imagine what it will look like when the WVA, Cuse and Pitt faithful are gone.
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Old 11-21-2012, 08:50 AM   #171 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by xudash View Post
It all sounds logical, but we won't know what will be and will not be the best course of action for the basketball schools until we get to the following point:
  1. UConn's status with the BE is determined;
  2. Whether or not further expansion by the B4 results in the BE's loss of UL;
  3. Whether such expansion goes deep enough to result in the loss of UC; and
  4. Whether or not the new western additions to the BE change their mind, reinvigorating the MWC in the process (I don't know that they can without incurring exit cost).

Again, prior to Rutger's loss, one projection had the hoops schools' annual payout going from the existing $1.5 million to a little over $1 million. The television deal from here is going to take a major hit, losing those Rutgers and (most likely) UConn markets.

It would remain 3 things for me, as far as the decisioning process is concerned:
  • Annual payout
  • Brand Management
  • League composition (similar, like minded schools, having a shared agenda)

What great theatre all this makes.
Correct, the basketball only members of the BE or whatever the creation will be less than a million dollar per year now with UCONN and Rutgers leaving. What happens when Cincy and UL and probably USF, the contracts will not be worth $500k annually per school.

That A-10 contract is looking pretty good now, eh? Not to mention the stability and the reputation as the best non-BCS conference in basketball in the country. A conference that focuses on basketball and if your university focuses on basketball you do not want to worry about what happens in the BE and football messing around with the conference and your university's certainty.

What is the saying.. The early bird gets the worm. No A-10 school will leave this for that... It just isn't happening. The numbers and basic logic kinda says that.
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Old 11-21-2012, 09:12 AM   #172 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by hawkhill View Post
One thing to remember in this entire realignment is that networks look at size of fanbase in addition to their percieved success. That is how many actual fan homes they will reach. Taking West Virginia,Pitt and Syracuse out of the picture cost the BE hundreds of thousands of households who cared about Big East basketball. BC was much less of a hit as it is a smaller school. Rutgers will subtract quite a few more. UConn becomes the biggest potential future casualty.
Look at the enrollment of the schools and then multiply by approximately 50 years worth of alumni to get the potential fan base. This "catholic conference" would have relatively small fanbases and therefore have much less value to the networks.
I have been in NYC many times during the BE tourney and cant imagine what it will look like when the WVA, Cuse and Pitt faithful are gone.
Is the fanbase really that simple. Sounds a bit myopic. State schools tend to have a decent portion of their fans who are not alums. Having lived in CT for a few years, I'll say that UConn definitely falls in that category. With few exceptions you see that much less with private schools which furthers your point about the "catholic conference".
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Old 11-21-2012, 09:14 AM   #173 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by hawkhill View Post
One thing to remember in this entire realignment is that networks look at size of fanbase in addition to their percieved success. That is how many actual fan homes they will reach. Taking West Virginia,Pitt and Syracuse out of the picture cost the BE hundreds of thousands of households who cared about Big East basketball. BC was much less of a hit as it is a smaller school. Rutgers will subtract quite a few more. UConn becomes the biggest potential future casualty.
Look at the enrollment of the schools and then multiply by approximately 50 years worth of alumni to get the potential fan base. This "catholic conference" would have relatively small fanbases and therefore have much less value to the networks.
I have been in NYC many times during the BE tourney and cant imagine what it will look like when the WVA, Cuse and Pitt faithful are gone.
It will look like the A10 tournament.
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Old 11-21-2012, 09:24 AM   #174 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Brooklyn is nice! The tourney might do better than expected. St Joe people who went to the Coaches vs Cancer are all planning to come back and tell their friends. Like you said, just dont drive there! I wonder how well Butler and VCU fans will travel?
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Old 11-21-2012, 02:50 PM   #175 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I think ESPN's influence has always been overstated. It's the bogeyman in every conversation about conference shakeups. These changes are driven by a number of factors. TV money certainly plays a huge and singular role, and ESPN does have some influence, but personal relationships, markets, academic fits and other things are involved.

How did Rutgers and Maryland end up in the Big 10? A lot has to do with relationships. Maryland's top people have Big 10 backgrounds or ties. Ditto for Rutgers. See the following article.
The changes are driven by a number of factors as you said. But the biggest factor is money. Even if you're a perfect fit for the conference, it doesn't mean you're getting an invite if you don't improve the TV deal (WVU is more of an SEC school than Missouri is, but Missouri has a much larger market).

Your example of the Big Ten is outside the scope of the ESPN influence discussion: The Big Ten Network is their #1 determining factor (They want AAU schools near their footprint, who lead to significant BTN subscriber fees), and not ESPN.

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Originally Posted by A10BBall View Post
ESPN carried the Big East because of it's relationship with UCONN.

Now the Big East is going to lose UCONN and probably, UL and Cincy, pretty quickly, as both have gone public about wanting to leave.

The remaining schools are not just worth it to ESPN, they have made that pretty clear.
I don't think it's limited to just UConn. ESPN had a strong relationship with the entire league. But the simple fact is that if UConn goes, SEVEN of the old school Big East teams that had the strong relationship with ESPN are in other conferences.
Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, UConn (plus Miami & Va Tech, who I didn't count in my seven) will be in the ACC, with Duke and UNC, whom ESPN's also had a strong relationship with.

ESPN can be in the business of broadcasting those eight schools (SU, Pitt, UConn, SJU, GT, Nova, BC, ND) just like they always have… if Nova, Georgetown and St. John's are in the ACC. ESPN turned their back on C-USA before; why wouldn't they now that those schools are in the Big East?
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Old 11-21-2012, 03:50 PM   #176 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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The changes are driven by a number of factors as you said. But the biggest factor is money. Even if you're a perfect fit for the conference, it doesn't mean you're getting an invite if you don't improve the TV deal (WVU is more of an SEC school than Missouri is, but Missouri has a much larger market).

Your example of the Big Ten is outside the scope of the ESPN influence discussion: The Big Ten Network is their #1 determining factor (They want AAU schools near their footprint, who lead to significant BTN subscriber fees), and not ESPN.



I don't think it's limited to just UConn. ESPN had a strong relationship with the entire league. But the simple fact is that if UConn goes, SEVEN of the old school Big East teams that had the strong relationship with ESPN are in other conferences.
Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, UConn (plus Miami & Va Tech, who I didn't count in my seven) will be in the ACC, with Duke and UNC, whom ESPN's also had a strong relationship with.

ESPN can be in the business of broadcasting those eight schools (SU, Pitt, UConn, SJU, GT, Nova, BC, ND) just like they always have… if Nova, Georgetown and St. John's are in the ACC. ESPN turned their back on C-USA before; why wouldn't they now that those schools are in the Big East?
Rutgers and Maryland. NYC Metro and DC markets. Two schools with plenty of potential. Hell, this may even make college football relevant in NYC.
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Old 11-22-2012, 11:57 AM   #177 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Rutgers and Maryland. NYC Metro and DC markets. Two schools with plenty of potential. Hell, this may even make college football relevant in NYC.
But for the Big Ten, it's not about trying to get a better TV deal from ESPN. It's about moving BTN up a tier on cable systems in New York and DC/Maryland. If BTN moves up a tier, the cable systems pay BTN higher carraige fees, which they pass on to subscribers. It's all cable customers chipping in millions of dimes a month, rather than one paycheck from ESPN.


Perhaps the A-10 should partner up with the WCC, MVC, Horizon and Ivy to form a TV network. If the WCC added Seattle and Denver, the CAA added Stony Brook, Canisius, Niagara, Loyola MD; the Horizon added Belmont and Oral Roberts you'd have like 40% of the US covered.
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Old 11-22-2012, 02:51 PM   #178 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Interesting thought of multiple conferences joining up to form their own network. I would assume the biggest hurdle would be how do you determine exposure.
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Old 11-22-2012, 08:02 PM   #179 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Don't know if the author has an agenda or if, in fact, he has been in direct discussions with certain BE hoops schools that have about had enough, but the unthinkable could be nearing the land of possible:

http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Oli...&view=ZW50aXR5
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Old 11-22-2012, 10:15 PM   #180 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

he is one of the friar's biggest supporters, and thinks that Baron was the perfect basketball coach for URI. his Basketball IQ starts and ends with the Big East being the best basketball conference in the country. of course, I am a very bias fan who has seen kevin do massive damage to the URI program, as people in that wonderful state actually believe the crap that falls out of his mouth.

With that said, He has probably talked to the AD at Providence, as his other big connection to the league was cuse and that doesn't help here anymore.
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