jpschmack

The biggest hurdle is: Production costs and if you could make it worth the risk. The big problem is that to cover the vast amount of territory you'd need lots of teams. For example, if you could have enough interest in enough markets to MATCH the Big Ten Network, you'd be looking at $80 million in profits to split up.

But if you need 60 schools to get those profits, that's $1.33 million per school. Now, that'd be almost tripling TV money for these schools (From $750,000 to $2.05 mil)... but the startup costs are ridiculous. Not many of these schools are big enough to make a $2 million bet on that network.

The opinions expressed by the author indicate it could happen.
The statements relayed by the author from Big East members point to the contrary.

What the hoops schools should do in their small window of voting power is quickly pass a "full TV revenue sharing regardless of sports offered" rule, giving them a slice of football money. That would give them a few years of extra dough before football leaves them -- but it will lead to football leaving them.


Speaking of crazy (and I mean crazy) realignment articles, check THIS doozy out. I don't doubt there's some ACC schools getting nervous or itchy, but... I find it really hard to believe on about 30 different levels.

http://www.eersauthority.com/expansi...-on-the-brink/

bprichard

Wow. That one is completely crazy. The other surprise is that Mountaineers site actually has a really decent site design. You don't see that much from independent team sites.

RF1

Providence and Seton Hall probably want this and someone at PC probably leaked it to Big East schill McNamara. The problem with this path is that Georgetown, Villanova, and St. John's are not yet ready for this action. Contrary to some people's thoughts, the Catholic schools are not all in 100% agreement with each other.

xudash

I agree with you that Georgetown, Nova and St. Johns prefer the football/hybrid umbilical, but it's also pretty clear that the BE truly is reaching the point of no return. Note the following tweets, which were shared on the Xavier board:

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
NBC BigEast talks have ceased and as of 8 am all conference funds will be frozen

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@MSpellacy this will mark the beginning of NCAA fb and bball splitting into two different entities. In the sense of conferences as we know

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@MSpellacy no. Fb schools will. Hoops will raid A10 and form a new league.

MHver3 ‏@MHver3
@MSpellacy and u may see some MWC teams in the new hoops conference if the credits transfer


If the "frozen BE funds" comment is true, they've as much as conceded that UConn is gone. It's possible that they also may have been quietly informed that the western school additions are moving in the direction of staying put. Beyond that, all the noise on the wire about further raids against the ACC on the part of the Big4 to continue their effort towards the 4x16 model has had to convince the BE camp that it is over; any losses on the part of the ACC translates to the most likely losses of UL and, if the ACC is truly desperate, UC.

At some point, it became clear that the life boats were a much safer option than remaining on the Titanic.

Chetburger

Lots of conjecture in those conference predictions on that web site. I'll believe it when I see it. Remember when Missouri to the Big10 was a done deal????? Remember when Texas going independent was a done deal????? Remember when the Big12 dissolving was a done deal???


My point is this: no one knows for sure whats going to happen but the presidents, chancellors, athletic directors, and conference commissioners. Considering how tight-lipped they were about ND going to the ACC and Rutgers/Maryland to the Big10 (few saw these coming as quickly as they were announced), I have to think there is the same level of privacy going on with all the other ongoing discussions right now.

__________________
--------------
Head Coach Chester Chetburger, A10 Forum Hoops Touring Practice Squad

"Shaving points for cash since 1997."

Palestra1

MHver3 has absolutely no inside or accurate information. He is some loser desperate for attention who tweets a lot of crap almost none of which ever comes to pass. He was outed by the admins on the WVU scout board for posting under multiple IDs so that it would appear that others were confirming his drivel.

Anyone who claims that they know how things are going to turn out is full of it. Outside of the SEC, B1G and PAC, people actually making the decisions are struggling to determine the best course of action for their institutions and conferences. They were collectively caught off guard by the timing of the B1G's move. Yet somehow some dork in his mom's basement knows the thinking of the key people in multiple conferences.

Presumably either UL or UConn will head to the ACC which obviously isn't good for the BE. beyond that there are any number of possible outcomes. As long as the conferences higher in the food chain than the A10 or BE continue to play musical chairs, both conferences will face uncertain futures.

vaNtR

Come on, this guy is hardly a credible source. I think a lot of the Big East conjecture on this board is fueled by blind optimism. It's not as if most of you are impartial observers. Xavier, Dayton, SLU and Butler would be prime candidates to join a new basketball conference should that scenario come to fruition. The Big East is certainly on tenuous ground and is hardly an elite entity, but it won't dissolve and its future certainly won't be dictated by the likes of Providence and Seton Hall.

xudash

My intent was to share information. That info was posted on X's board and it appeared relevant to the A10 so I shared it here. I don't know this guy. I just found it rather striking that NBC had shut down its television negotiations with the BE.

Otherwise, I don't wish Temple or any program in this league that cares about this league any ill will. I'm glad Temple and X have shared an affiliation. I'm glad for Xavier's affiliations with other solid programs in the A10.

If the BE dissolves, the BE hoops schools are coming after A10 schools, assuming they retain the BE brand and some fair share of BE conference economics through the dissolution agreement. I doubt that's up for much debate.

It will not likely happen the other way around. Right or wrong, kudos or not for loyalty, the A10 will keep itself exposed in all this by not having addressed its weaker links. It doesn't work that way in business, but it seems to work that way when it comes to collegiate affiliations, except all that is changing in spades before our eyes and all around us. Will the BE 7 plus some members of the A10 form something that will drive a television deal that is north of $350k per school? There certainly aren't any guaranties of that happening, but such an outcome would seem likely.

I want what is best for Xavier, as you want what is best for Temple. Temple to the BE was an excellent decision when it was made. Temple will most likely still land on its feet in reasonably good shape when all this is said and done; it will make it to one of those conference that will still have access to the new BCS format, unless they go full-boat 4x16 and shut the doors on anyone from outside the Big4.

This should always have been and should be and should continue to be about like-minded institutions who are aligned and who make the necessary commitments to contribute to their league's success. If the A10 believes its made it there now, especially with its recent additions, it should be okay. If the market says otherwise, change will happen to the A10, assuming the BE breaks apart.

jpschmack

It's interesting to read. But fiction.

For reliable information, someone with a lack of access to a source is usually give away #1.
But when it comes to realignment, those with access to a source STILL usually don't get anything!

There has to be a reason for a source to leak information.
Even if everything he wrote/tweeted were TRUE; Why would anyone involved TELL HIM?
-- He's a WVU guy, but WVU sources wouldn't want Louisville to know they have options. They certainly wouldn't say that multiple schools consider the Big 12 their "Fourth Choice" behind the B10, SEC and intact ACC.
-- If you're an ACC school, you don't want that info leaked, because it makes other conferences make phone calls for your members. It doesn't improve anyone's position.
-- If you're a school looking to move, you want the announcment to come as a total shock to everyone. Like


Real stuff gets leaked by three sources:
#1 - Someone in the school board against the move; hoping the legions of fans rise up and protest and the president reconsiders (RARE)
#2 - Someone in the school trying to soften the story, by having it slowly trickle out instead of a "BAM, We're moving!" if fan reaction might not be 100% positive.
#3 - The school tells the media about the press conference and cannot do it in a way without tipping off the press. Which is how almost all of these happen and how this Maryland thing leaked out. It goes like this:

Media Relations Department: Hey, we're going to have a major announcement tomorrow at at 3 pm.
Media: What do you mean major? Conference affiliation?
MRD: Yes.
Media: So Big Ten.
Media: Your silence confirms Big Ten.

Report Sunday, Press Conference Monday. There was no "Rumor" of Maryland to the Big Ten. By the time the media got it, it was a done deal. No one in Maryland wanted to confirm talks. Ditto Rutgers. They went with a Tuesday press conference so the Big Ten folks could drive over for their press conference. The vote was done. It was all complete by the time it hit the internet.

vaNtR

Absolutely, I wasn't upset that you shared it at all. It's all pertinent information and affects many of the institutions in the Atlantic 10. I just think this board tends to go a bit overboard with the realignment talk and the anti-Big East sentiment. I think we both can agree that if the Big East, as it's presently constituted, were to call Xavier tonight they'd be thrilled to join the conference -- and personally I'd like to see their addition to strengthen the basketball side of things. That said, Temple would be chomping at the bit to join the ACC or the Big Ten if the opportunity was there, so I can understand the state of the conference and why the harbingers of doom exist.

xudash

Realignment Madness - FWIW:

http://www.eersauthority.com/expansi...-on-the-brink/

So, if the virtually total destruction of the ACC were to take place, would the ACC, as an entity, want to stay all-sports with the remnants, new BE additions and what would become new additions:

- UConn
- Cinn
- USF
- Louisville*
- BC
- Pitt
- Cuse
- WF
- Temple
- Duke

* - if UL goes to the B12, then pull in Memphis, UCF, UMass, etc.

That conference would have access to the BCS system and be a great basketball league. They'll occupy the ACC brand in favor of the BE brand.

Otherwise, the hoops schools would then be free to pursue a basketball league, having the rights to the BE brand.

In other words, we're back to a lot of moving parts again, and perhaps all this really only happens if the Big4 really, truly intends to expand and do so in a big way.

jpschmack

I don't think what each school wants is the point here. The point is, this article makes zero logical sense. Forget whether or not the basketball only schools want to separate from football. Let's assume they do:


The author proposes that the basketball schools COULD sacrifice the Big East brand name by dissolving the league because:
A - they MIGHT want to get away from football so badly it would be worth sacrificing the BE name AND
B - they MIGHT want to save the exit fee money so badly it would be worth sacrificing the BE name.

The article is stupid because they don't need to dissolve the league to avoid exit fees or to get away from football!


IF THEY HAVE THE VOTING POWER TO DISSOLVE, THEY HAVE THE VOTING POWER TO CHANGE THE BY-LAWS TO ANYTHING



They could vote 7-3 to change the exit fees to one dollar and bolt (stupid, but saves exit fees)
They could vote 7-3 to expel Louisville, 7-2 to eject Cincinnati, 7-1 to eject USF, and 7-0 to revoke the memberships of TU, UH, SMU, UCF, MEMP, BSU, SDSU and Navy. (That gets them what they want, AND they keep the Big East name).

Or they could do the really smart thing:
Vote 7-3 to raise exit fees to $50 million.
Vote 7-3 to establish full TV rights revenue sharing regardless of sport sponsorship.
Vote 7-3 to establish a "football scheduling tax" or any other ridiculous measure that forces football to WANT to leave.

If football stayed, they'd share their football money with basketball. And if football wanted to leave, they'd have to pay the basketball schools $400 million combined in exit fees. And basketball keeps the Big East name.

Medford

I think you would find that $50mil exit fee getting shot down in court pretty fast. The rest of it is a good idea, and I agree, more likely or something similar

e-parade

If this were to happen (UL leaving part) it most likely wouldn't involve UMass - too many northern schools already, which is not a very good recruiting ground. Memphis or UCF would just logically be a better choice.

I mean it would be nice to have Cuse, Conn, UMass, and BC in the same conference though. UMass/UConn/BC all decently short trips and then Syracuse a nice road trip.

xudash

Creative thinking, but I doubt anyone wants to go into the room to negotiate a deal that would be DOA. The football schools aren't going to share football money with hoops schools. Nobody is going to map into that kind of exit fee. I doubt it would hold up anyway.

Dissolution in and of itself is nothing more than a technical procedure in this case; the dissolution agreement will be sitting next to the new BE Basketball Conference Agreement for execution.

IF all these next, rumored moves actually happen, it seems likely that reconstituted conferences - ACC for football and BE for hoops - will evolve.