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More BCS realignment

143K views 1K replies 144 participants last post by  Medford 
#1 ·
It's being reported all over that the Big Ten is in the process of inviting Rutgers and the University of Maryland into the conference.

The invites could take place as early as Monday.

Speculation from there includes the idea that the ACC would invite UConn to take the place of UM.

Needless to say, that may be all she wrote for the Big East.
 
#1,150 ·
Here's last season's OOC win percentages by team, after re-configuring the conferences:

Rk. CNF (Ch) Win% (Ch)
04. BEF (-1) .757 (-.008) UConn, CIN, USF, UCF, HOU, SMU, MEM, TEM, TUL
06. BEB (-3) .672 (-.093) Hoops and BUT, XAV, SLU
07. MWC (-3) .655 (-.108) +SJSU, USU, FS, NEV / -BSU, TCU, SDSU
08. MVC (--) .617 (+.000)
09. A10 (-2) .609 (-.010) +GMU, VCU / -CHAR, TEM, SLU, XU
09. CUS (--) .609 (+.004) +8 / -6
11. P12 (-1) .592 (+.000)
12. WCC (-1) .542 (-.019) +Pacific**
--
30. WAC (-18) .259 (-.291) -- just to say WOW.

*Notes and Flaws
#1 - No attempt was made to adjust records for OOC games that became conference games (i.e. Butler vs Xavier)
#2 - Realignment isn't done yet; and I anticipated some moves.
#3 - OOC schedules change every year, as do the teams (and the changes effect recruiting)

The WCC and MWC numbers are misleading.
Pacific (a founding WCC member) has been playing 4 WCC teams traditionally, since they're all in the Bay Area.
This season, they play Saint Mary's twice, and Gonzaga as well.
Next season, they'll be playing the only NorCal Big West team (UC Davis who was 4-26 last year) OOC instead.
So don't expect the WCC to drop much.

The MWC on the other hand… should drop even more than that. They have weaker teams in the league now.
They will play fewer OOC games than before (18 or 16, instead of 14)
Many of the OOC games that will disappear were against teams in the Great West and Independents, who had no one to play in early January. Those schools are in conferences now. The only Indy is NJIT.


So yeah, the conference changes hurt us.
They don't hurt Big East football as much as we thought they would. But then again, Tulane also was 11-1 OOC that season.

What's really funny is that everyone is going to change their OOC schedules to account for the fact that they are stronger or weaker, and it will probably have the OPPOSITE effect of what they desire.
 
#1,165 ·
The topic of realignment certainly has provided us a lot of entertainment and good discussion around here.

The schools that invested and understood/understand the importance of maintaining strong athletic programs should do well moving forward.

The schools that didn't get it may be fine institutionally speaking, but may not maximize their full potential.

The people most hurt in this are the fans of those latter schools, who must be frustrated with their leadership for not moving more decisively to build and market a stronger program.

At any rate, thanks for the shoutout vaNtR. If not the archives, then a business case study is screaming to be drafted from all this.

It isn't over yet.
 
#1,173 ·
Another possibility - UConn, Cincinnati, and Memphis join the new BE7 in the basketball focused conference leaving their football teams behind.

Several A10 schools could be in process of being jerked around.

I know most UD fans want to join the BE7, but I don't think any A10 schools should be offended in they are not in the BE7 discussion - you may be the lucky ones.
 
#1,174 ·
I'd be pretty shocked if that happened. It would be the same Big East again without USF...This would be quite a bit of work just to kick out USF (there are only 11 teams currently in the BE).

These Catholic schools without football know UConn and UC are likely to end up in the ACC within the next few years if any more expansion happens (the ACC is highly likely to be raided again soon).

I think the BE7 teams who have seen 10 conference mates leave in the last 10 years are sick of the revolving door. Adding teams without football programs would actually lead to a very stable conference. Particularly if they can achieve their goal of making the best basketball-only conference in the country. Where else would a team want to go? There would be no upgrade possible and thus no incentive to leave.
 
#1,181 ·
I think that's correct, but that's not really the question being asked. The A10 teams cannot reasonably be expected to look out for the conference's well-being, only their own. I think this is a lesson that realignment has made painfully clear. So the only question is will the reconsituted A10 be better than the BE7 and whatever programs they choose to invite.
 
#1,179 ·
We have over 2 years to see how it plays out. There is too much money on the table for the BE7 to violate by-laws and they have to wait 27 months. Unless they have excellent lawyers or give concessions to the Big East conference. The big thing for us is to see what happens to UConn, Cincy, Memphis, and Temple. The A10/MAC combo is a great fit for us. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. The A10 will always be a good league and have multiple bids.
 
#1,180 ·
Let's just say for sake of argument that the A10 loses Xavier, Richmond and St. Louis. (But really you could insert any combination of possible candidates.)

What if the remaining A10 schools with "strong" resumes, facilities, history, dedication to winning, etc...decide to to pull a similar move?

I don't want to name who these potential schools could be because I'm not looking to stir a debate with who belongs in that group and who doesn't. Just simply put forth the possibility that could some of these remaining take their ball and go play with other like minded teams from other conferences in yet another new hybrid league?
 
#1,190 ·
You simply dont need that profile conference anymore to be relevant. We already are relevant. Butler and VCU have made Final-4s. Xavier flushed a Final-4 down the crapper against Duke. What cant be done in the A10 that can with those Big East schools?

I find it hilarious that the Big East catholic schools are reserving a spot for DePaul in some new conference, but might keep out a Richmond, St. Joe, Dayton, SLU, etc. Thats funny. The last time DePaul was relevant was when they won the worst NCAA tourney basketball game ever played in 2004 vs. the Flyers. They needed two overtimes and one power forward going 0-10 from the line to win.

We already have a consensus on screwing Nova. Can we get a consensus on screwing Georgetown too? They think they are Notre Dame without the football.
 
#1,192 ·
1. They are moving as a group and keeping DePaul. They aren't keeping anybody out really. They need all 7 to keep the autobid under NCAA rules and for many other practical reasons.

2. Nobody needs to be in any particular conference. However, there are certain advantages and disadvantages to membership in every conference. Recruiting. Strength of Schedule. Ability to sell tickets to home games against good opponents. Media coverage. Money to retain your coaches and improves facilities, Etc.

3. Not sure how VCU or Butler help prove your point. They made Final Fours in their previous conferences but still decided for a perceived conference upgrade when the opportunity presented itself. They would probably do so again if the opportunity presented itself. As should any team.

If your argument was persuasive, those teams wouldn't be in the A10 right now.....
 
#1,193 · (Edited)
VCU and Butler to the A10 were demonstrative steps up in competition, while the A10 to the Big Priest is anything but demonstrative. It might not even be marginal, but a step backward. Going from the Horizon to the A10 is way different than the A10 to the Big Priest. Its a game-changing move by Butler. The same comparison of the A10 to Big Priest is not apples to apples. The leaps are not symmetrical.

Pains me to say it but I may be coming around to NWFlyer's angle. At one time I was all for this Big Priest thing. But the world of college athletics has redefined itself just in the last cpl of years and I dont like where its going. Its not about the student part of student-athlete anymore. The A10 should give the 7Catholics the birdie just to see people in seven cities spontaneously combust.
 
#1,194 ·
This is what bugs me. I know I harp on this all the time, but…

When people say "why are is the BE7 better than the A-10? DePaul has been awful by RPI. Providence, St. John's and Seton Hall all have worse NCAA resumes than blah blah blah… it doesn't mean anything. Because DePaul's horrible RPI/Record comes from playing 18 Big East games. Which they won't be playing anymore.

"What makes them better than us?" boils down to one simple factor. OOC win percentage. RPI is redundant system based on circular logic: Having a good record doesn't make you good. Having a good record against teams with good record is what makes you good.

As I said before, every conference goes .500 against itself. The teams that are at the top of the conference standings are gonna have good records. And they're going to have played 17-21 games out of 31-34 against their conference mates.

So what makes one conference stronger than another, or what makes teams have better RPIs than another is nothing more than how your conference does OOC.

Big East last 5 seasons:
.7650 Win Pct (3rd) vs .4963 SOS (25th)
.7950 Win Pct (2nd) vs .5129 SOS (4th)
.8051 Win Pct (3rd) vs .5087 SOS (10th)
.7744 Win Pct (5th) vs .5012 SOS (13th)
.7347 Win Pct (5th) vs .4988 SOS (15th)

A-10 last 5 seasons
.6186 Win Pct (7th) vs .5141 SOS (5th)
.5864 Win Pct (9th) vs .5062 SOS (5th)
.6243 Win Pct (9th) vs .5192 SOS (4th)
.5926 Win Pct (9th) vs .5068 SOS (8th)
.6432 Win Pct (8th) vs .5067 SOS (9th)

They win more, against weaker teams, and therefore are rated higher. Their conference games are worth more SOS to each team, and they get more bids.

Is the BE7 better than us? OOC last five years:
A14: .6111 Win Pct (No VCU, No Butler)
A16: .6258 Win Pct (VCU, Butler)
BE7: .7500 Win Pct
A12: .6078 Win Pct (X, SLU, Butler leave)
A12+ .6140 Win Pct (X, SLU, Butler, UMass leave; GMU is added)

So, yes. Yes they are. But we can CONTROL our OOC win pct, by playing weaker teams OOC, having a better record, making our conference games worth more. Of course, because people don't understand the conference effect of RPI, we'll probably do the opposite and play harder OOC games because we lost Temple and Xavier (shakes head).
 
#1,206 ·
RPI is derived primary from conference affiliation.
Xavier played 19 of 33 games last season against A-10 teams.
Marquette played 19 of 32 games last season against Big East teams.

Most of RPI = total OOC win pct by your conference. When you switch teams around into different conferences, the numbers will change.

What makes the BE7 "better than us" is that they win more OOC games. (Of course, watch both the BE7 and A10 both schedule harder going to an easier conference, and Xavier, Saint Louis and Butler schedule easier going to a harder conference).

In a vaccuum, this is true. In reality, not quite perfect logic. It's true that this would help the CONFERENCE as a whole have gaudy, inflated RPI numbers, but upon analyzing each TEAM you could make an argument that there's no 'there' there. While Syracuse goes 13-2 each OOC and never leaves upstate NY, except maybe to play a 'neutral' game at MSG or in Albany, they usually do post at least a few impressive victories in the OOC to hang their hat upon. The reason teams in the A10 schedule tougher games is to have possible calling cards on their resumes. Your point that if everyone simply went 12-3 OOC, then many conference games would be calling cards doesn't hold up. Case in point so far this year? The University of Richmond. Best start in two decades, a disgruntled fan base and a SOS of 300+. Granted teams like ODU and Wake Forest shouldn't be as bad as they are, but that's how it fell. If UR goes 12-3 OOC (losing at Kansas, winning against Mason, Davidson and Air Force) does that make them good? It just makes it not a bad loss, not a great win. It's an awfully thin line to walk. UR could, in theory still make the NCAA tourney, but would need to beat teams that have actual quality wins to do so.

Simply put, what's good for the conference is not what's best for a team with NCAA aspirations.
I could go point-by-point, but I don't want to write a novel on this (again). It sounds like you are with me on the math, just not with what the selection committee would do with teams resumes:

Iowa St, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Colo St, Notre Dame, Cal and USF (none); New Mexico (beat #31 SLU), West Virginia (#48 K-State), NC St (#50 Texas), Texas (Temple). That's 11 teams who went 4-20 OOC against Top 50 RPI teams. And two of those wins were against each other. All 11 made the NCAA Tournament, 10 via at-large.

Secondly, we're not talking about a whole-scale reduction of OOC SOS across the board that would eliminate all our conferences marquee wins. We're talking about (OOC SOS)

PLAY ONE LESS TOUGH GAME VS BCS TEAMS
81 DUQ 8-5 - (they have to play Pitt, so dump at Arizona)
103 RICH 9-6 - (Illinois/Rutgers was a tournament, so dump at UCLA)
191 BONA 7-5 - (their schedule was perfect for their team last year with Nicholson. Just beat Ark State.)
232 CHAR 8-5 - (Miami and Memphis. Pick one).
EGADS, FIX THAT:
48 GWU 5-9 (0-7 vs Top 120 RPI teams, 5-2 vs 120+)
196 URI 3-12 (0-7 vs Top 150 RPI teams, 10 games vs top 10 conferences; 3-5 vs 150+).

Everyone else did their job.

so what marquee games are we losing off our OOC schedule? Those six teams combined went 0-16 in their marquee game attempts (or 3-16 if you want to count Wake Forest and BC).
 
#1,199 ·
The A-10 is dragged down by its bottom feeders. Otherwise some of what you guys are saying might make sense. Escaping Fordham is almost reason enough to join the BE7.

And I'm glad Xavier wasn't so short-sighted as to refuse to ever be in a league with Dayton again after Dayton left X behind in the MCC to join the Great Midwest.
 
#1,200 ·
The A-10 is dragged down by its bottom feeders. Otherwise some of what you guys are saying might make sense. Escaping Fordham is almost reason enough to join the BE7.

And I'm glad Xavier wasn't so short-sighted as to refuse to ever be in a league with Dayton again after Dayton left X behind in the MCC to join the Great Midwest.
We still played the Flyers every year when we were not in the same Conference following UD's departure from the MCC. So what's the big deal? You don't have to be in a Conference together to maintain a rivalry (See UC, for example.)
 
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