jpschmack furthers illustrates why I do not fear Dayton getting left behind. Make no mistake, I want Dayton in. It would be really fun to see Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette on the schedule every year, and it would be quite the adjustment not to see Xavier twice.
But even if they are left behind, Dayton's destiny is still controlled by the same people who always controlled it...Dayton. NCAA bids aren't disappearing, they are only going to be added over time. Dayton's path to an at-large will still be based on the games Dayton wins or loses.
The Xavier rivalry would shift to OOC or go away, and anyone who has read my posts knows I have no issue with that. College basketball rivalries are never permanent, it's the nature of the game itself. There are no college basketball rivalries that match Ohio State/Michigan, Army/Navy, USC/Notre Dame, or Florida State/Florida. None. Not even Duke/UNC. Football games make or break a season, basketball rivalries make or break an evening. And hell, even iconic football rivalries disappear from time to time. Ask Texas and Texas A&M fans.
Notre Dame, Marquette, and DePaul used to be the biggest nights at UD Arena well before it was Xavier. Without Xavier, it would be someone new. VCU, Richmond, St Joes, George Mason...someone would emerge as a "circle the date" rival, probably sooner than most people think.
As a fan, I fear Dayton moving to the new league far more than I fear being left behind. It's a good fear, similar to proposing marriage, but a legit fear. Every program in the discussion has visions of going to the new league and leaping right to the top, but no one ever mentions the pit. It's possible Dayton isn't good enough, that they'd be the DePaul of that league. At least one of the A10 teams who leave will be, it's just common sense. Look at every mass realignment we have ever seen in college sports. There are always winners, and there are always losers. And then look at what becomes of the leagues that teams leave behind, rarely do they just crumble into dust. Dayton, or anyone, being forced to stay in the A10 is not a punishment.
Dayton was that loser once already in their 25 or so years as members of a conference. As much as I want Dayton in the new league, it is because of the Great Midwest failure that I don't fear the alternative. Dayton, and whoever else doesn't get the call, still control their destiny. Things will always work out over time if you go about the process in the right way. I think that's from Boy Meets World. The process trumps everything. New league or A10, my only concern is what Dayton is doing to improve every year.