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Old 11-29-2012, 09:35 PM   #331 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
The opportunity has now arrived for the Presidents and Athletic Directors of Xavier and Dayton to be proactive and make the first move.

Step 1: Get Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU on board, creating a 5-school secret cartel with a proposal for 5 Big East basketball schools.
Step 2: The 5 Atlantic 10 schools invite 5 Big East schools to join them in a new conference - America's Basketball Conference (ABC) or another new conference name.

There are a lot of advantages for the 10-team basketball conference:
1. Ten schools means cuttting the TV rights pie into fewer pieces.
2. An 18-game conference schedule: every school plays the other 9 schools twice each season.
3. An attractive conference tournament in which the Top 6 teams get a first-round bye.
4. Inherent stability of the conference.
5. Having 5 schools from both conferences means than neither the former A10 nor former BE schools would dominate the other concerning conference policy decisions. Call it 'parity of esteem'.
6. Adding an 11th school (and cutting the pie into 11 pieces) or adding an 12th school (and cutting the pie into 12 pieces) would reduce the revenue per school, i.e., the Law of Diminishing Returns kicks in, considering which additional schools would be available as an 11th or 12th school.
Step 2 - Football brings them exposure that five A-10 schools don't, they wouldn't leave Seton Hall and DePaul, and all this is TV driven, so ditching DePaul and the Chicago TV market would make those five schools laugh; And VCU and Providence over DePaul and Seton Hall would make everyone laugh.

1. Why would the TV rights pie slices be larger than what the BE-5 are getting now?
2. An 18-game conference schedule actually is a detriment to conference RPI and NCAA bids. Good to sell TV games and is fair, though.
3. Um, super?
4. While the "Big East" isn't stable, the position of the Big East Hoops-Only Schools is: They are the only schools without football TIED to a "major BCS conference." The fact that the new Big East isn't very good at football isn't the point. The point is that it gives them an advantage over the likes of, say, us.
5. What policy decisions would have a BE/A10 schism? That's a conference of nine private schools and VCU. They'd have to agree on everything or the conference couldn't exist in the first place.
6. The law of diminishing returns kicks in when additional members do not increase the revenues enough to cover the additional shares. I fail to see how DePaul and Seton Hall are diminishing returns. By your same use of that, VCU, Butler and Dayton are beyond the diminishing returns for the Big East Seven and Xavier.

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Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
The Dominoes . . .
4. Seton Hall and DePaul accept invitations to join the depleted Atlantic 10.
5. Manhattan, Canisius, and Niagara also accept invitations to join the Atlantic 10
Manhattan, Canisius and Niagara over George Mason, Creighton, Hofstra/Stony Brook?

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Originally Posted by Keith Braswell View Post
I could live with this if you take out UD and replace them with St. Joes. it isn't about attendance, it's about the big dance. It about getting there and advancing. UD's track record compared to St Joes's in the NCAA tournament over the last 20 years is night and day. UD has no bargaining power to move to a better league, it's time they realize this.
No, it's NOT about a the big dance. If it was about the big dance, what the hell is St. John's doing in there? Their NCAA resume over the last decade (one bid, zero wins) is worse than Dayton's.

Oh right, St. John's is in THE MEDIA CAPITAL OF THE WORLD. This is about TV dollars.

The Dance is only PART of what gets you the TV dollars. Conferences want market size, fan base, facilities, academics, etc, along with the quality of the program.

St. Joe's is a redundant market (and Nova wouldn't want them included). Dayton isn't a redundant market.

What most Xavier fans don't see because they're too busy making jabs at Dayton, is that the Big East Seven wouldn't see Cincinnati #27, Dayton #62; They see "Southwest Ohio #17."

Middletown is called Middletown because it's halfway between Dayton and Cincinnati. The idea that it's in Xavier's market and not Dayton's is categorically insane. If Congress decided to approve an international airport in Middletown in 1942 instead of Covington, it would be the Cincinnati-Dayton Metro Area already (See also: Dallas-Ft. Worth)

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Originally Posted by PM Thor View Post
I don't understand the fascination with revamping the A10 as it is anyway. Lose Temple? Fine, add Butler and VCU. This league isn't driven by football dollars, and so, I think we are sitting pretty well in terms of being raided for teams to bail. Maybe SLU? But who else? Really? I do really believe that this league has a very solid footing, with no need to really expand or worry about programs leaving.
The only reason the A-10 would revamp itself drastically would be if Big East football and basketball separated. And the Big East basketball side would raid the A-10.

There's no scenario in which the BE7 do not stay together in their entirety, outside the Big East.
The top schools of the A-10 would join the Big East if football leaves.
The top schools of the A-10 would join a new conference with the BE hoops leftovers if they are broken up by the ACC.
Those are the only realistic scenarios that effect us (outside UMass leaving for an all-sports invite from an FBS conference)
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Old 11-29-2012, 10:17 PM   #332 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Media market only truly matters if you are starting a network. The Big Ten went after Rutgers and Maryland because it can get the Big Ten Network on basic cable in the NY, Baltimore, and DC markets now. That instantly adds millions of subscribers at around 40 cents per house, per month. They could care less how many people actually watch those schools. Ratings in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska alone cover all the ad revenue they will ever need.

CBS, NBC, and soon Fox are going after football in an attempt to get in more homes. They are going after basketball simply for ratings when there's no football to show. The A10, or any current, future, or hypothetical basketball league will get deals based on how many people watch, not on how many homes you may bring. Basketball doesn't bring homes. It's a niche TV sport. It doesn't matter if you are in NY or Laramie, Wyoming, if people aren't watching, companies aren't paying for commercial time. This is why I don't understand the A10's commitment to Fordham, but that's another thread altogether (Title: Kick Fordham out and invite George Mason).

St Joe being in a redundant market with Vilanova doesn't matter when it comes to ratings. It may matter to Vilanova simply to protect their turf for recruiting athletes and students. Dayton and Xavier both have established basketball markets with a history of high ratings for local broadcasts, and a history of very high ratings for all basketball games. That's huge. That's why both are likely high, if not in the top two spots on the hypothetical short list should the Big East basketball schools ever need to branch out (we're closer to when than if, really). Creighton would be up there as well. Then probably St Joe and VCU.
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Old 11-29-2012, 11:04 PM   #333 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer View Post
Media market only truly matters if you are starting a network.

The A10, or any current, future, or hypothetical basketball league will get deals based on how many people watch, not on how many homes you may bring.

St Joe being in a redundant market with Vilanova doesn't matter when it comes to ratings.

If an A-10 team is on TV and the Flyers are off, do you watch the game?
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Old 11-29-2012, 11:40 PM   #334 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
If an A-10 team is on TV and the Flyers are off, do you watch the game?
I know you aren't asking me and I'm not a Dayton fan but I do watch A-10 games when X isn't playing sometimes. It depends on which A-10 team is playing, who they are playing, and what else is on TV. I don't usually go seeking out A-10 games specifically but if I come across them then I will usually watch some. I watched some of Dayton the other night just because I happened to see it was on TV, watched some of VCU, Butler, and Charlotte over Thanksgiving break.
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Old 11-30-2012, 01:43 AM   #335 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
If an A-10 team is on TV and the Flyers are off, do you watch the game?
Important question, but not really answerable by the people on this board. We're diehards to the point that we post on an Atlantic 10 board. The question is, "Will casual fans watch games from this conference?" The A10 is really a basketball lovers conference that is underappreciated by mainstream fans. We need teams consistently in the top 25 (other than just top 25 stalwart Xavier) to build recognition and interest.
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Old 11-30-2012, 05:22 AM   #336 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by Bill Russell View Post
Why would SLU leave?
Bill, I'm surprised at you. After all the years you've spent here, you still don't get it. If Dayton were to leave the A10, everyone would want out.
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Old 11-30-2012, 05:56 AM   #337 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Right. What value would be left?
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Old 11-30-2012, 06:35 AM   #338 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer View Post
Media market only truly matters if you are starting a network. The Big Ten went after Rutgers and Maryland because it can get the Big Ten Network on basic cable in the NY, Baltimore, and DC markets now. That instantly adds millions of subscribers at around 40 cents per house, per month. They could care less how many people actually watch those schools. Ratings in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska alone cover all the ad revenue they will ever need.

CBS, NBC, and soon Fox are going after football in an attempt to get in more homes. They are going after basketball simply for ratings when there's no football to show. The A10, or any current, future, or hypothetical basketball league will get deals based on how many people watch, not on how many homes you may bring. Basketball doesn't bring homes. It's a niche TV sport. It doesn't matter if you are in NY or Laramie, Wyoming, if people aren't watching, companies aren't paying for commercial time. This is why I don't understand the A10's commitment to Fordham, but that's another thread altogether (Title: Kick Fordham out and invite George Mason).

St Joe being in a redundant market with Vilanova doesn't matter when it comes to ratings. It may matter to Vilanova simply to protect their turf for recruiting athletes and students. Dayton and Xavier both have established basketball markets with a history of high ratings for local broadcasts, and a history of very high ratings for all basketball games. That's huge. That's why both are likely high, if not in the top two spots on the hypothetical short list should the Big East basketball schools ever need to branch out (we're closer to when than if, really). Creighton would be up there as well. Then probably St Joe and VCU.
Media markets always matter. They just matter in different ways depending on which model you're using to generate revenue. In an ad based model media markets matter because the number of viewers a team can draw in its home market is a function of market size. If I were to start a new basketball conference New York would be the first city in which I would want a team. I had rather have a consistent 1% of the NYC market than a consistent 25% of the Dayton market because I'd be reaching more viewers in NYC. but it isn't just the number of viewers it's the wealth of the viewers. Advertisers value the top ten media markets much more than others because they deliver so many more affluent viewers. The BE's ability to deliver good audiences in 4 of the top 10 media markets was why ESPN promoted the BE so heavily in its early years.

I do agree that Dayton and Xavier would be high on the list of candidates should the BE7 split. St. Joe's unfortunately would have no shot at being included as long as Villanova is in the conference. Fr. Donohue was quite explicitl during the dispute over Temple's entrance to the BE that they don't want to share the market with anyone else unless they're forced to as happened with Temple. And the other BE schools wont force Villanova to do that should the BE7 reconstitute the conference.

While they might choose VCU because it is a successful program, I think they're more likely to choose Richmond because its institutional profile is much closer to the BE7's and Richmond is also strong program as well. Given the BE7's experience with constant membership changes, I think they would value close institutional fit among all members more so than is typical in conference formation.
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Old 11-30-2012, 06:47 AM   #339 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment


Muddy’s Observations:

(1) The Presidents and Athletic Directors of Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU should be acting solely in the best long-term interests of their respective schools. That’s what they are all being paid six-figure salaries to do.

(2) When the conference realignment merry-go-round finally stops, it is my opinion that the best possible outcome for Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU is the following:

2011-12 NCAA Men’s Basketball Attendance (ncaa.org)

America’s Basketball Conference (ABC)

Code:
Rk. University   Attendance

13. Marquette    15,138
28. Dayton       12,154
35. Georgetown   11,283
39. Xavier       10,155
44. Villanova     8,923
54. St. John's    8,428
63. Providence    7,883
66. Saint Louis   7,757
70. VCU           7,622
78. Butler        6,599
(3) The Presidents and Athletic Directors of Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence should also be acting solely in the best long-term interests of their respective schools.

(4) It is my further opinion that the best possible outcome for Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence is the ABC shown above. But as Gregg Doyel pointed out in his article, they haven’t realized that just yet.

(5) If Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence leave the Big East, I don’t give a damn about what happens to the BE thereafter, and neither should the Presidents, Athletic Directors, alumni, and fans of those schools. The concept of 'conference loyalty' is highly over-rated. If you don’t believe that, review the previous 338 posts on this thread.

(6) Despite what they might say in public, the Presidents and Athletic Directors of Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence are not concerned with the future fortunes of DePaul and Seton Hall.

(7) If Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU leave the Atlantic 10, I don’t give a damn about what happens to the A10 thereafter, and neither should the Presidents, Athletic Directors, alumni, and fans of those schools.

(8) Throughout its 37-year history, the Atlantic 10 Conference has always been in transition and has always been a stepping stone for schools who want to move to a 'better' conference (i.e. Atlantic 10 member schools have always acted in their own self-interests).
Quote:
History

The Atlantic 10 Conference was founded in 1975 as the Eastern Collegiate Basketball League (ECBL), and began conference play in 1976. At that time, basketball was its only sport. After its first season, it added sports other than basketball and changed its name to the Eastern Athletic Association.

However, despite its official names, it was popularly known as the Eastern 8, as it then had eight members – Villanova, Duquesne, Penn State, West Virginia, George Washington, Massachusetts, Pittsburgh, and Rutgers.

(9) The Atlantic 10 in 2014-15 (prior to further departures / expansion) ?
Code:
   University        Attendance

1. Duquesne          3,204
2. Fordham           2,343   
3. Geo. Washington   2,561 
4. La Salle          2,209  
5. Massachusetts     4,279 
6. Rhode Island      3,829
7. Richmond          5,660
8. St. Bonaventure   3,926
9. St. Joseph's      4,197
America’s Basketball Conference (ABC)in 2014-15 ?

Code:
Rk. University   Attendance

13. Marquette    15,138
28. Dayton       12,154
35. Georgetown   11,283
39. Xavier       10,155
44. Villanova     8,923
54. St. John's    8,428
63. Providence    7,883
66. Saint Louis   7,757
70. VCU           7,622
78. Butler        6,599
Apples and oranges.

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Old 11-30-2012, 07:06 AM   #340 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Muddy’s Observations:

(1) The Presidents and Athletic Directors of Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU should be acting solely in the best long-term interests of their respective schools. That’s what they are all being paid six-figure salaries to do.

(2) When the conference realignment merry-go-round finally stops, it is my opinion that the best possible outcome for Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU is the following:

2011-12 NCAA Men’s Basketball Attendance (ncaa.org)

America’s Basketball Conference (ABC)

Code:
Rk. University   Attendance

13. Marquette    15,138
28. Dayton       12,154
35. Georgetown   11,283
39. Xavier       10,155
44. Villanova     8,923
54. St. John's    8,428
63. Providence    7,883
66. Saint Louis   7,757
70. VCU           7,622
78. Butler        6,599
(3) The Presidents and Athletic Directors of Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence should also be acting solely in the best long-term interests of their respective schools.

(4) It is my further opinion that the best possible outcome for Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence is the ABC shown above. But as Gregg Doyel pointed out in his article, they haven’t realized that just yet.

(5) If Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence leave the Big East, I don’t give a damn about what happens to the BE thereafter, and neither should the Presidents, Athletic Directors, alumni, and fans of those schools. The concept of 'conference loyalty' is highly over-rated. If you don’t believe that, review the previous 338 posts on this thread.

(6) Despite what they might say in public, the Presidents and Athletic Directors of Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, St. John's, and Providence are not concerned with the future fortunes of DePaul and Seton Hall.

(7) If Xavier, Dayton, Saint Louis, Butler, and VCU leave the Atlantic 10, I don’t give a damn about what happens to the A10 thereafter, and neither should the Presidents, Athletic Directors, alumni, and fans of those schools.

(8) Throughout its 37-year history, the Atlantic 10 Conference has always been in transition and has always been a stepping stone for schools who want to move to a 'better' conference (i.e. Atlantic 10 member schools have always acted in their own self-interests).



(9) The Atlantic 10 in 2014-15 (prior to further departures / expansion) ?
Code:
   University        Attendance

1. Duquesne          3,204
2. Fordham           2,343   
3. Geo. Washington   2,561 
4. La Salle          2,209  
5. Massachusetts     4,279 
6. Rhode Island      3,829
7. Richmond          5,660
8. St. Bonaventure   3,926
9. St. Joseph's      4,197
America’s Basketball Conference (ABC)in 2014-15 ?

Code:
Rk. University   Attendance

13. Marquette    15,138
28. Dayton       12,154
35. Georgetown   11,283
39. Xavier       10,155
44. Villanova     8,923
54. St. John's    8,428
63. Providence    7,883
66. Saint Louis   7,757
70. VCU           7,622
78. Butler        6,599
Apples and oranges.
Those are all great points if the league was based on attendance. However, if the league were to be based on basketball ability, you might want to replace Dayton with Weber State.
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Old 11-30-2012, 07:17 AM   #341 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

$ drive these decisions.
Football $ dwarf basketball $.
Both $ come more from TV than home court attendance.
If you were forming a league and had the choice between two teams based on home attendance:

A - @ 18,000/game

B - @ 9,000/game

If you chose A, you would have BYU, instead of B = Duke.
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Old 11-30-2012, 07:21 AM   #342 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Muddy, I don't see the Big East schools that you mentioned ditching their long-standing rivals of 30 years (I'm talking about DePaul and Seton Hall.)

Whether you dislike those two school or not, if a basketball-centric conference would be formed, I would bet on those two being in there.
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Old 11-30-2012, 07:39 AM   #343 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

In all seriousness, I really don’t understand the idea that Xavier and Dayton would be “high, if not the top two spots on the hypothetical short list” for the BE basketball schools.

I understand Dayton has great attendance numbers… and that’s great for the UD athletics department. And I get it’s a big basketball city. But where does the notion come that UD gets really high TV ratings? If that were the case, wouldn’t UD get on a national, ESPN network more than once or twice a year (excluding any tournaments)? By comparison, Xavier gets 7,8, or 9 on an ESPN network annually (excluding any tournaments)... plus every single game televised.

UD doesn’t bring much, if anything, to the table basketball-wise (I'm not talking academic reputation or other non-revenue sports) except their attendance numbers and fan support. I don’t see how a local, mid-major, underwhelming program that has won a single NCAA game in 22 years and has the national relevance/ratings to only get 1-2 games on an ESPN network per year is one of the “top two spots” for association with the BE basketball schools.
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Old 11-30-2012, 07:58 AM   #344 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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In all seriousness, I really don’t understand the idea that Xavier and Dayton would be “high, if not the top two spots on the hypothetical short list” for the BE basketball schools.

I understand Dayton has great attendance numbers… and that’s great for the UD athletics department. And I get it’s a big basketball city. But where does the notion come that UD gets really high TV ratings? If that were the case, wouldn’t UD get on a national, ESPN network more than once or twice a year (excluding any tournaments)? By comparison, Xavier gets 7,8, or 9 on an ESPN network annually (excluding any tournaments)... plus every single game televised.

UD doesn’t bring much, if anything, to the table basketball-wise (I'm not talking academic reputation or other non-revenue sports) except their attendance numbers and fan support. I don’t see how a local, mid-major, underwhelming program that has won a single NCAA game in 22 years and has the national relevance/ratings to only get 1-2 games on an ESPN network per year is one of the “top two spots” for association with the BE basketball schools.
Bingo. Dayton brings hardly anything to the table. Muddy keeps on bringing up attendance because that is the ONLY positive thing UD can point too. I can promise you that Xavier would not be disappointed if UD was left out of the next conference they join.
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Old 11-30-2012, 08:10 AM   #345 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
If an A-10 team is on TV and the Flyers are off, do you watch the game?
I watch as much A10 basketball as anyone not named WH.
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