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More BCS realignment

143K views 1K replies 144 participants last post by  Medford 
#1 ·
It's being reported all over that the Big Ten is in the process of inviting Rutgers and the University of Maryland into the conference.

The invites could take place as early as Monday.

Speculation from there includes the idea that the ACC would invite UConn to take the place of UM.

Needless to say, that may be all she wrote for the Big East.
 
#1,342 ·
paul, the question is, can the Big East sustain 6 bids in a 10 team league? Last season they only picked up 3 bids, so you'd have an average of 4.5 bids over 2 years, which in a 10 team setup, kind of feels like the correct average they'll get moving forward. I haven't read JP's stuff, but with 12, I've always felt like the Big East could average somewhere around 5.5 bids, maybe closer to 6.

Using your math, that's $675k split evenly in a 10 team set up vs $687.5k in a 12 team setup, if you assume my averages are correct (which I'll admit are more gut based than anything mathematically I have to back up those numbers). While those numbers are close, having 1 more team that can presumably win a game or more in the tournament, increases the odds of having a larger collection of games won/played in the tournament each season. Of course those increases could be offset by a decrease in TV money per team if the package stayed the same but split 12 ways vs 10.

If I were the Big East, I'd look at the A10 as your biggest threat to take away bids that you can directly impact by "stealing teams" If they grabbed 3 of SLU, UD, VCU, Richmond or Rhody, they'd grab 3 of the more financially stable programs in the A10. I left out UMass only b/c of football. They could essentially kill off the A10 to nothing more than a 2 bid league at most while moving to 15 teams probably gets them about 7 bids a season according to my powerful gut.
 
#1,343 ·
Medford, that seems to make sense. To me the challenge is to follow the JP model in the OOC to get the conference RPI up to a point where the 50/50 takes over.
With 14 teams a year ago, the A10 followed (I guess) or fell into his performance model and ended up with 6 teams. This year, same 14 teams, and 3 bids.
My question to him was "is it harder to manage the model with a greater number of teams?" I have no idea. Something went wacko this year to go from 6 bids to 3.
Maybe the BE average will be 4.5, but I'm hoping it's a little higher. We'll see.
And the Spiders have to perform this year to take away all these questions on Selection Sunday.
 
#1,347 ·
I think it's is "harder" to manage with more teams, just from the sense that you're relying on MORE PROGRAMS to win more OOC games.

And what worries me isn't that this year was "wacko" because it wasn't. It was definitely different, and that difference was:

The Big Ten's increased size with 14 teams, all of whom did pretty darn well winning OOC games
The SEC's size of 14 teams, and Kentucky being 34-0 on Selection Sunday
The Big East scheduling brilliantly
The Big XII getting a massive boost from TCU going 13-0 OOC

The massive OOC win percentage of power conferences put so many of their teams into the Top 50 of the RPI that it boosted almost all the P5 leagues.

Conferences that had weaker bottoms: The P12, AAC, MWC and A10 had less bids.

It's HARDER for us to game the math because of the huge increases in OOC win pct by bigger conferences. Our bottom needs to step up with OOC wins (and the easiest way to do that, is to schedule as easy as possible to bring wins in).
 
#1,346 ·
I loathe this Big East bid argument more than anyone....why do you people continue to want to talk about the Big East. If you don't give a shit about Xavier why are you talking about the conference they are a part of.

I'm guessing it is just a midwest thing to constantly rephrase the point you been making 432904394234093423 times in 4328948239048234 threads.
I revived the thread, obviously not for UD vs X reasons.

I was re-reading the thread to use it as an argument of "I was spot-on correct about bid potential for each conference in 2014, and the A-10 got SIX (well more than my 3-4 projection) and I said what the Big East would have to do in order to get 5-6 bids and they did exactly that in 2014-15. If I'm the only guy on the planet who was right about all three of those things... why the hell would you doubt me on this assessment?"

And that's when I noticed the $500 statement that I had completely forgotten about, thought was funny as hell, and thought you'd all enjoy the thread bump.
 
#1,348 ·
Who cares... unfortunatley they are getting much more money regardless of making the tourney... and guess what this is all about - two things - making it there and how much money the school can make.

Despite Dayton's recent success in the tourney in the last two years - X has made more money - So let's call it a push and move on.


BTW - JP I love your enthusiasm, but there isn't a chance in hell that SBU ends up in the Land of Holy Hoops - NO CHANCE - Bob Lanier isn't walking through that door man. IMO I think there is little to no chance that Dayton goes either. Right now they are litterally stealing money from FOX with that ri-goddamn-diculous TV deal, and they are not about to split that pot up two more ways, because they don't have the foreseight to see that a better conference will get more money in THE NEXT contract.
 
#1,352 ·
BTW - JP I love your enthusiasm, but there isn't a chance in hell that SBU ends up in the Land of Holy Hoops - NO CHANCE - Bob Lanier isn't walking through that door man. IMO I think there is little to no chance that Dayton goes either. Right now they are litterally stealing money from FOX with that ri-goddamn-diculous TV deal, and they are not about to split that pot up two more ways, because they don't have the foreseight to see that a better conference will get more money in THE NEXT contract.
The other problem that everyone seems to have with his argument is the name St. Bonaventure. It seems to have negative connotations, specifically your Bob Lanier point.

JP is simply providing the model with the team name, if you removed it for a different team name, Valparaiso, or Holy Cross, maybe people would look at a different way. His whole media market argument falls a little flat when you look at Indiana, or Boston, where those teams are not top billing, so some of his argument won't make as much sense. Btw, I'm not advocating that Bona makes it into the Big East, I just think JP's math is most likely spot on, but many people are getting hung up on the name of the University, rather than the fact that is a Catholic, basketball focused, no football university, which is in line with the rest of the league.
 
#1,360 ·
So JP, your stuff is making a lot of sense. But correct me if I am wrong, wouldn't it still be better to take the best 2 available schools (UCONN & Gonzaga) over any other options?
 
#1,363 ·
Is it the Big East? Or the Big Mid-Atlantic-Midwest? With the right amount of money, geography is not a problem. It might be stupid, but a lot of people do stupid things simply because they can.

The "who is the NBE taking next" argument is getting old. X won't even play UD, you think they want them in the same conference? I think the A10 looks pretty good right now, despite the fact that the NBE more appropriately gamed the ratings and kicked our butts in bid count.

As far as taking a mid-level and a bottom-feeder, mathematically it makes sense, but does it move the perception needle? They're just 2 more mouths to feed who are coming in specifically to be takers and not contributors. Another issue that will be here sooner than later is the expiration of the current TV contract which has really only benefited one of the parties so far. I can't see FOX Sports throwing money away for another 5 years when it's obvious those teams are at best regional draws.
 
#1,364 ·
I don't see the Big East expanding any time soon. Fox greatly overpaid to get it and is not giving it any more money. The only schools I worry that the Big East might poach from the A10 in unlikely circumstances are Davidson and Saint Louis. If Davidson shows staying power in the A10, they (and Fox) might cast a covetous eye on the Charlotte market (and, by extension, all of Dixie). SLU would balance things out with a western school and provide a geographic bridge to Creighton.

And Brown Indian, I thought the Fox-Big East contract was ten years. Was I wrong?
 
#1,366 ·
I chose Indiana and Boston/Massachusetts because they were the home states for Valpo and Holy Cross respectively. Can throw Boston U into the mix as I saw HOH tossing that name around as well if it helps the SOS instead of Holy Cross. I don't know the numbers as well as you.

I was simply reiterating the point you made that none of these teams would be the top team in the market they reside in.
 
#1,373 ·
Nothing wrong with playing against a very good schedule as long as you win enough of them to prove you are good too. This year, the committee heavily favored playing a very tough schedule without winning a whole lot in games against tough opponents. I'm skeptical that the bottom of the Big East, whichever programs that ends up including, will be able to sustain the level of recruiting that they had either having been a part of the OBE or being a program that racked up a lot of wins coming from a conference that has some chronic cellar dwellers as a part of it's make-up. The NBE has not hit a steady-state condition yet, IMO. And they did not distinguish themselves in this last NCAA tournament based on their seeding. They didn't distinguish themselves in the 2013-2014 NCAA tournament either. They have a lot to prove yet.
 
#1,383 ·
I realize that it benefits your alma mater and all, so you're a little bit biased in your view...

But do you honestly think a company gets to a market cap that high by investing in things that lose them money? Yeah, it won't cause them to go under or get rid of FS1, but if the package never gets to the point of making them money then they'll write it off and move on from it. 12 years is a hell of a long time though, so maybe it'll turn the corner at some point, but early indications suggest that you should enjoy this next decade and then prepare for something substantially smaller.


When I saw this thread bumped up again I was expecting it to be about either Bronco Mendenhall's comments about BYU being in a Power 5 conference within 3 years or those weird rumors about the Big 10 trying to get Missouri from the SEC. I can't even find anywhere "reporting" on that second one, which is why they're "weird rumors." I've just seen people making posts about it.
 
#1,384 ·
Most of us thought the NBE was going to be very good an make lots of money. But going forward with Fox, Espn or other is going to be very problematic. Networks work off ratings and potential households.

First they lost Syracuse. As much as I would like to think Buffalo is a Bona town it is really a Syracuse one. Syracuse owns upstate NY and even parts of NYC viewing. When Syracuse left, the NBE lost Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany and Binghamton. This amounts to over 2MM households.

Pitt left-lost 1.18MM
No presence in Boston-2.4MM
UConn left-lost Hartford-1MM + the rest of Conn.
NYC is a Syracuse town-10MM plus

Adding St. Louis would help them a little-1.2MM


I don't believe their numbers are going to get much better even if they they rob the A10 again. Who are they going to invite to swing this number higher on the Northeast. If the numbers do not swing upward, they wil not get the same TV contract next time. The A10 is actually better positioned geographically.

Adding SLU, Dayton, VCU and Richmond might help.......but it does not solve the lack of a Northeast 'power draw' school. Without viewership from the Northeast, less dollars next time. The NBE should be funneling extra money to Seton Hall and St. Johns right now just to make sure they get good so the NY/NJ market doesn't lose interest. If those 2 teams stay irrelevant, the NY/NJ TV's will switch to Syracuse and maybe UConn games.


This above still applies.Fox1 did screw up.
 
#1,388 ·
TV always needs programming. My guess is as long as there is Fox1 they will have the NBE.

The issue for the NBE is, when ratings are this bad it gives Fox1 real power in negotiating a much better deal on the next contract. NBE will have to try something just to make sure they get the same money because this model is not working and it is not going to work without something changing.
 
#1,391 ·
Fox has always said they're in for the long haul. No illusions. They're taking on a behemoth. The behemoth opened to 30k viewers their first year more than 30 yrs. ago and had to be rescued by Budweiser.

Now they have almost everything locked up thru the 2020's.

I guess people thought that Fox was going to take them down in a couple yrs. without the contracts? Duh. New Networks take a long time to get viewership and bid on new deals. Thus a 12 yr. initial agreement.

I guess if they come to the A-10 when your deal is up, y'all would be pissed saying "nah, we like the big money but we don't like the current viewership numbers".

Sorry.
 
#1,392 ·
I'm honestly not sure what kind of argument you're trying to make here. Would we, as members (well our schools anyway) of these conference like more money in a contract? Absolutely.

The point we're trying to make is that this contract your conference is currently on is currently looking to be too rich for the return, meaning it'll be harder for not just you, but all basketball centric conferences to get something quite so large in the future.
 
#1,395 ·
Speaking of money, here's a fascinating article about the NCAA tournament money. If one assumes that a team leaves it's dollars behind in the conference when it changes conferences, then St Joe's and GW are the onlys team in the A10 who have made more money than they have taken over the last 25 years.

Everyone else has taken more money than they earned.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-march-madness-basketball-fund/
 
#1,402 ·
I had seen this graphic before the start of the tourney and it is very interesting, unfortunately, it is based on the assumption that all money earned by a conference is split evenly among the members of the conference.

"The chart below compares how much schools have earned for their conference and how much they've gotten back. It assumes conferences equally split their basketball fund revenue like the NCAA suggests."

We know that the A-10, among others, has changed allowing teams to keep more of the money they earned. That being said, based on the even split assumption, after this past season, GW now is probably in the negative and Dayton in the positive.
 
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