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Old 12-02-2012, 12:39 PM   #376 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by DoubleJayAlum View Post
From what I am able to gather, the western schools (primarily X, Dayton, SLU, Butler) would support adding Creighton if it were up for a vote. Some or most of the schools along the eastern seaboard would be opposed. Other schools appear to be undecided or just plain neutral. Sound accurate?

From this outsider's perspective, it would appear as though the western schools have been the most successful recently (not including Temple who is leaving the conference and VCU who is brand new) and may have the most financially stable athletic departments. Accurate or not?
This is largely accurate. Not sure about the financial stability of the others, but Dayton and Xavier are incredibly stable. They have the money, business partnerships, and donor base to remain strong athletic programs and finance just about any upgrade necessary.

I think every Dayton, Xavier, and SLU fan would love to add Creighton. These 4 schools are practically relatives. Butler isn't Catholic, but is very similar in most other ways.

As others have said, I'm sure the more eastern schools would love to add Creighton teams if a spot were open, they just aren't so keen on adding a trip to Nebraska. SLU is a long trip, and it's hundreds of miles closer. That's a lot to ask of non-revenue sports who need to maximize every dollar they get.
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Old 12-02-2012, 01:29 PM   #377 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by DoubleJayAlum View Post
From what I am able to gather, the western schools (primarily X, Dayton, SLU, Butler) would support adding Creighton if it were up for a vote. Some or most of the schools along the eastern seaboard would be opposed. Other schools appear to be undecided or just plain neutral. Sound accurate?

From this outsider's perspective, it would appear as though the western schools have been the most successful recently (not including Temple who is leaving the conference and VCU who is brand new) and may have the most financially stable athletic departments. Accurate or not?
I think Adam's response pretty well nutted it: assuming the A10 stays together as presently structured, the addition of Creighton would be totally welcomed by Xavier fans.

Adam and DistrictBaller brought up one of two key matters that have to be analyzed more closely - more than just conjecture on a message board: travel expense for Olympic Sports. The other matter has to do with answering a simple question: what is the television contract dollar value of a perceived OPTIMIZED basketball league?

Let's now address the latter matter. I have a different perspective than does DistrictBaller, specifically with respect to George Mason. I get that GM has potential, has made it to the F4 at some point after the Reagan Administration, and provides better geographic symmetry. But what I'm not sure of is whether or not GM, to television executives pricing out a hoops-centric TV deal, would be THE next addition that makes sense. I see what I see with Creighton: an excellent Jesuit school (I have a bias about that, but the more important point here is that it is an excellent school) that views basketball as a strategic asset (true alignment) that has demonstrated success and the ability to fill an NBA arena. That ability to fill that arena may have some barring on how the TV people would price the agreement, if it is otherwise true that Dayton would be appealing, given its 8th place market rating for basketball.

In short, any movement to expand the A10 should focus on first making decisions about optimizing it as a league and for television. Certainly, before any invitations and commitments are pursued, some amount of modeling can take place to determine the financial impact of one prospective addition over another. Afterwards, the expense side - travel impact - can be analyzed.

Where are we now? $350k per school? The A10 had better figure this out and do so quickly, because, IMHO, the BE basketball schools are firmly on a rail, sliding towards having to navigate themselves into a hoops-centric conference. The tweets are running rampant about G Tech to the B1G tomorrow. Those tweets include the likelihood of UNC going with them, taking the B1G to 16 teams. IF that happens, it simply cannot be the case that the Big XII is going to stand pat at 10 teams; it just isn't going to remain at that number for the long-term. Slive is watching the whole thing as well; it almost is a given that the SEC will dive back into all this, especially if the B1G "invades" the South.

So what will the BE hoops schools do if all this plays out. They aren't leaving the BE umbrella, they'll let the remaining most valuable football properties (UConn and UC) leave it firstly. That will pretty much destroy any material differential that would have existed in television money between a hybrid conference comprised of C-USA schools and an all hoops conference. More to the point, Boise and SDSU immediately petition them to waive the exit fee on them, allowing those two key schools to solve their issues, as best they can, back in the MWC. Obviously, the BE hoops schools simply let them go on that basis. Now it gets into an area of which I'm not sure, in terms of how it would be handled legally: what happens with the recent invitees? The BE, as a conference, given a certain composition, voted in SMU, Houston, and recently Tulane. Can that same conference, given an adjusted membership, cast a new vote to dictate that the conference will be basketball-only moving forward, thereby negating the value of joining that conference for football schools? Is that some form of breach? Is it about bargaining in bad faith? Overall, the point is that, at that point, the hoops schools will have to find a way to incent, or dictate that those other football schools aren't going to make the cut.

Make no doubt about it. IF it gets to the point of the BE hoops schools coming free with the BE brand in tact and them owning it, the power is with those schools. As it stands now, the low-end thinking for a BE television agreement (that still includes UL (now gone), UConn and UC) for the hoops schools involves $1.06mm per school. As noted, UL is gone. If the rumors about the B1G's next "come on down party" are true, then expect either UConn or UC or both to be gone next - to the ACC.

The A10 is at $350k per school.

Can the A10 improve upon that with strategic additions now?

If the BE hoops schools come free - more like forced to come free, giving up their football blanket - can they configure a top flight hoops conference that attracts close to $1mm per school, knowing that they can only do that by hurting the A10 in the process?

One more question for consideration, having to do with what the A10 should be doing now to protect its interests: even if the BE settles into a hybrid format, with mainly C-USA schools comprising its football side, does anyone truly believe realignment is finished, assuming the B1G is at 14/16, the SEC is at 14 and the Big XII is at 10?

As we sit here right now, the BE basketball schools are riding the hybrid model to their graves. Those arena pictures that duq81 posted are almost frightening (for those schools). Yet their bank account remains fat, and their brand remains stronger - now - than the A10's brand.

It's coming down to timing and economics.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:10 PM   #378 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

These are the size of Indiana high school basketball gyms. Seriously

http://indianahsbasketball.homestead.com/files/gyms.htm

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Originally Posted by bostonspider View Post
McDounough Arena - Georgetown
2,500 seats



Carnesecca Arena - St. Johns
5,600 seats



The Pavillion - Villanova
6,500 seats



Al McGuire Center - Marquette
4,000 seats



Walsh Gymnasium - Seton Hall
2,600 seats



Alumni Hall - Providence
2,600 seats



McGrath Arena - Depaul
3,000 seats

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Old 12-02-2012, 02:16 PM   #379 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

If you're talking similar schools with decent sized markets, don't forget Bradley. Good attendance numbers plus a mid-sized city of Peoria. Could come along with Creighton.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:17 PM   #380 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by xudash View Post
That ability to fill that arena may have some barring on how the TV people would price the agreement, if it is otherwise true that Dayton would be appealing, given its 8th place market rating for basketball.
Dash, nice recap. (Wait till Monday!)

As to TV market penetration importance, that must be taken in context.
Dayton is #8 with a 2.0. (I believe that is 2% of TV households in the statistical market)
Cincinnati is #7 with a 2.1
Atlanta is #20 with a 1.1

http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-re...2012/11/60498/

But how valuable are those 2.0's or 2.1's? Market size:

Dayton: 498,270 (2% = 9,965)
Cincinnati: 897,890 (2.1% = 18,855)
Atlanta: 2,326,840 (1.1% = 23,268)

http://www.sportstvjobs.com/resource...sizes-dma.html

Bottom line is that being #7 or #8 in market share is only important if you have a big market. There are actually more people inside Dayton's arena watching UD basketball than there are people in Dayton watching ESPN. If there was a direct correlation there would be more UD basketball games on ESPN and ESPN2.

Dayton has no games on ESPN, and 1 game on ESPN2...with Xavier.
Simalarly, Xavier has 1 game on ESPN (Butler on 24hr Marathon), Dayton, UC and Memphis on ESPN2.

Without the rivalries and national cache of Memphis, we might not have any. Particular market share can be overrated.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:28 PM   #381 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

This is all becoming pretty scary. The more I hear, the more I am starting to worry the Big East B-ball schools will join forces with some top A10 teams. I can't see Duquesne being in the mix for this conference any time soon. Don't get me wrong, there is a ton of potential for the Dukes if they can get their act together. Duquesne basketball used to own the college basketball scene in Pittsburgh. There is no reason Duquesne can't be the Xavier of Pittsburgh but they need to start playing like it and sooner rather than later (more like they should have started playing like it in 2007).

Pittsburgh is a big tv market (#23) without an NBA team so that helps college basketball viewership I would think. Having the Consol Energy Center available is also a huge asset and games played there have drawn pretty well. Problem is the Dukes can't even get support from their own alumni or students most of the time. They so desperately need an NCAA bid and I think the firing of Ron Everhart showed that desperation.

Falling into complete basketball obscurity would suck for this once proud basketball program. Scary times on the Bluff. This season is becoming more important by the day as the realignment continues. Duquesne needs a .500 or so season to use to spring to at least an NIT bid but more likely a deep NCAA run to have any shot. Savor this season fellow A10 fans.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:56 PM   #382 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by DukesDan View Post
This is all becoming pretty scary. The more I hear, the more I am starting to worry the Big East B-ball schools will join forces with some top A10 teams. I can't see Duquesne being in the mix for this conference any time soon. Don't get me wrong, there is a ton of potential for the Dukes if they can get their act together. Duquesne basketball used to own the college basketball scene in Pittsburgh. There is no reason Duquesne can't be the Xavier of Pittsburgh but they need to start playing like it and sooner rather than later (more like they should have started playing like it in 2007).

Pittsburgh is a big tv market (#23) without an NBA team so that helps college basketball viewership I would think. Having the Consol Energy Center available is also a huge asset and games played there have drawn pretty well. Problem is the Dukes can't even get support from their own alumni or students most of the time. They so desperately need an NCAA bid and I think the firing of Ron Everhart showed that desperation.

Falling into complete basketball obscurity would suck for this once proud basketball program. Scary times on the Bluff. This season is becoming more important by the day as the realignment continues. Duquesne needs a .500 or so season to use to spring to at least an NIT bid but more likely a deep NCAA run to have any shot. Savor this season fellow A10 fans.
There seems to be a reasonable consensus - majority - of conjecture that has the top 5 A10 basketball schools being targeted for BE expansion (in no particular order):

- Xavier
- Dayton
- St. Louis
- Butler
- Richmond (or perhaps VCU)

It really depends upon how big the BE wants to go, assuming they have to go down this road at all.

Actually, I see Duquesne as being in the mix or close to it, because it is in Pittsburgh, it has the history and it certainly has the potential. Pittsburgh's western PA location also helps to connect the eastern schools to the western schools (I'm sure that point is high on the decisioning tree). The Dukes v. Xavier game in Consol put 10k+ in the seats, if memory serves me correctly. The fact that you guys have a decent Palumbo Center, coupled with the Consol being right down the street would seem to bode well for Duquesne. Obviously, the bigger this thing gets, the better your chances.

All that said, you're right about timing. It's important to demonstrate relevancy now.
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Old 12-02-2012, 02:57 PM   #383 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
Dash, nice recap. (Wait till Monday!)

As to TV market penetration importance, that must be taken in context.
Dayton is #8 with a 2.0. (I believe that is 2% of TV households in the statistical market)
Cincinnati is #7 with a 2.1
Atlanta is #20 with a 1.1

http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-re...2012/11/60498/

But how valuable are those 2.0's or 2.1's? Market size:

Dayton: 498,270 (2% = 9,965)
Cincinnati: 897,890 (2.1% = 18,855)
Atlanta: 2,326,840 (1.1% = 23,268)

http://www.sportstvjobs.com/resource...sizes-dma.html

Bottom line is that being #7 or #8 in market share is only important if you have a big market. There are actually more people inside Dayton's arena watching UD basketball than there are people in Dayton watching ESPN. If there was a direct correlation there would be more UD basketball games on ESPN and ESPN2.

Dayton has no games on ESPN, and 1 game on ESPN2...with Xavier.
Simalarly, Xavier has 1 game on ESPN (Butler on 24hr Marathon), Dayton, UC and Memphis on ESPN2.

Without the rivalries and national cache of Memphis, we might not have any. Particular market share can be overrated.
Paul, excellent data. Thanks for sharing. Puts things in better perspective on the TV side of things.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:09 PM   #384 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Larry Scott basically states, for public consumption, that Boise State and SDSU could be considered as expansion targets if/when the PAC12 expands again:

http://tracking.si.com/2012/12/01/pa...2_a6&eref=sihp

I'd say that's more about "when" than "if."

The Andrea Gail had smoother sailing than this.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:13 PM   #385 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Don't limit yourself to just ESPN. Any basketball driven conference will not get an ESPN exclusive contract. ESPN will get first tier rights and will pick games that appeal to the masses, but CBS and NBC will be the major part of the package. And the biggest part of the CBS or NBC package is the ability to sell regional broadcasts. An Atlanta outlet is not buying a game that gets a 1.1 rating on a January Saturday afternoon when showing Dunston Checks In would probably get double.

And ESPN ratings show that Dayton watches all basketball as well as nearly every market in the country. It doesn't tell us what kind of ratings Dayton games get in Dayton, or Xavier in Cincy, or St Joe in Philly, or Kentucky in Lexington. It doesn't tell us what ratings other A10 games get in Dayton. That's a pretty key piece of information that we don't have.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:32 PM   #386 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

That's an interesting point. ESPN seems to have focused on the U and 3 (which I think is online viewing??) and only rarely do I see the U being blacked out someplaces which creates sort of a regional situation.

Where I live, the cable situation has ESPN and ESPN2 as part of expanded basic. Then you get CBS and NBC regular network national basketball games when they occassionaly do them.

For the CBS Sports channel (which I guess breaks down regionally for games) and things like the BigTenNetwork...you have to pay for an expanded sports package.

We have 7 A10 games on the CBS Sports Network. I think they are national broadcasts...but they may just be regional.

As for Dayton, I get the feeling that one local TV channel makes a lot of their games available for the local market. (which is nice for fans who can't get/afford a ticket to the games.) I don't think anything exists like that in Cincinnati; probably because both XU and UC are located there.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:35 PM   #387 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

FWIW, more perspective:

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/colleg...#axzz2DN1zOIsr
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:45 PM   #388 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

More from the St. John's board - - to get some indication of what the temperature is on the inside of the BE hoops contingent:

Former Big East insider: “Now is the time” to break away
Posted on November 28, 2012 by Jerry Carino
Today I spoke at length about the Big East’s crisis with a person who worked as a high-level administrator at multiple basketball-only schools in the conference. Among other things, we discussed the report by Kevin McNamara of the Providence Journal-Bulletin on the Catholic schools’ ability to dissolve the league if all seven voted to do so.

Presumably, those schools could then reclaim the Big East name (why would football-oriented schools want it?) and use their share of the considerable exit fees to start a basketball-oriented conference.

Here are highlights from the conversation:

“Now is the time (to dissolve). The basketball schools, they probably still have enough big names to have some leverage with TV. Pull a couple of A-10 schools and do it. I don’t know enough about what they’d be able to do (TV contract-wise), but I think you’d better make a move now or else you’re really going to get lost.”

Me: Why would Georgetown and St. John’s (according to McNamara’s story) be leading the fight to stay associated with football schools?

“Georgetown probably has more to do with Paul Tagliabue. He’s been somewhere behind the scenes with the Big East office in trying to make some of the football decisions and he’s a trustee for Georgetown.”

“St. John’s, I don’t know. It probably has to do with living in this whole Big East dream with the Garden and everything else. But it’s no longer the Big East as we know it or as anybody knows it. Maybe they think because they’re St. John’s and they’re in the biggest market, they hold all the leverage and they’ll be fine (no matter what happens).”

Me: It seems like the Catholic schools have not been on the same page on how to proceed. Is this the tipping point?

“I would think everything’s changed in the last two weeks with Rutgers leaving, and now Louisville. The core of the league is imploding. Not that Rutgers was glamorous, but Rutgers served its purpose geographically, in terms of academic profile, offering a lot of sports and of course football.”

“Rutgers was this nice comfortable piece of furniture that served its purpose and wasn’t going anywhere, and now it’s gone. (The Big Ten) is a great plan by Rutgers, happy for them, but I don’t know how they pulled it off. It had everybody else thinking, ‘Holy shit, what just happened here?’”

Me: Where does Seton Hall stand in terms of influence within the Catholic school faction?

“St. John’s is the player in the New York market. I don’t think they’d leave Seton Hall in the dust—Seton Hall still has enough brand recognition to be included (in any post-Big East scenario), but crazy things are happening and you just have no idea what discussions are going on with who.”

Me: If you were a power broker at Seton Hall, what would you be doing right now?

“There’s not really much you can do but make sure every discussion, every conversation, you’re involved as much as you can be. You don’t want to get left out. The problem in college sports is camaraderie is out the window these days. Every institution is on their own. Back in the Big East’s heyday their operating principle, and this came from Dave Gavitt, was we need each other and together we’re much stronger than any of us as individuals. The Big East was built on a handshake at a bar. They had a mutual understanding of what they should be and what their shared interests were.”

Me: Maybe the remaining founding schools need to be reminded of that credo.

“There’s got to be a sense of urgency here. The time to do it is now. Now is an opportunity to build something new, build a new brand, center it around Madison Square Garden. The worst thing that could happen is if and when the ACC brings their tournament to MSG. Believe me, that thought has been in a lot of peoples’ heads. You think Rick Pitino and Jim Boeheim aren’t going to go to a league meeting and say, ‘We’ve got to get our tournament to the Garden?’ The Big East has no more leverage at the (MSG) bargaining table. Who wants (games with) Tulane and Central Florida?”

Me: What kind of “new” Big East could hold off the ACC’s NYC invasion?

“Smaller is a better brand. My priority is getting a 10-12 team league. You add Xavier, Dayton, Butler. That would be my league. Then you would be contiguous (geographically) and you would have almost every major media market covered. I’d love to be able to sit down with ESPN with that league and say, ‘Show me the money.’

“To me, there are three priorities, assets, that you have. Get as good of a TV deal as you can based on the strength of the basketball schools. Retain the Big East name, and get an exclusive, multi-year agreement for the championship at MSG. That’s how you brand yourself. You can’t lose any of those assets, unless they hit a branding home run with a new name, or you’re really at risk.”

“If those three things can still be controlled, then you have to (dissolve). And do it before the ACC can start moving toward getting into the Garden.”

“That becomes a win-win.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:47 PM   #389 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Thank you Xudash and all the other posters in this topic. This is a very in depth and mostly levelheaded analysis of the realignment situation. This is where I go for realignment news.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:48 PM   #390 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

So we're all waiting to see how Curt Flood makes out:

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-foo...big-ten-pac-12
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