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Old 12-02-2012, 03:52 PM   #391 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

It will be interesting to see what the Big East basketball schools do and what kind of leverage they have. I have made my views know about what I think the A-10 should do, but I have no idea what's going on in the higher reaches of the schools in our league and the Big East. You know people are talking. What they are saying is hidden.

I don't want UMass to leave the A-10. Never been a big believer in moving to Div 1 football, especially with the Big East falling apart. If the Minutemen do end up in a different league, I'll probably drift away from college hoops.

I'll still follow from a distance but I just can't bother with all the changes. Unlike the pro leagues, which try to foster stability to generate and maintain long-term fan interest, colleges have set in motion a trend in which instability will be the norm, not the exception.

Last edited by WH; 12-02-2012 at 03:59 PM.
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Old 12-02-2012, 05:56 PM   #392 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
As to TV market penetration importance, that must be taken in context.
Dayton is #8 with a 2.0. (I believe that is 2% of TV households in the statistical market)
Cincinnati is #7 with a 2.1
Atlanta is #20 with a 1.1

But how valuable are those 2.0's or 2.1's? Market size:
Dayton: 498,270 (2% = 9,965)
Cincinnati: 897,890 (2.1% = 18,855)
Atlanta: 2,326,840 (1.1% = 23,268)

Particular market share can be overrated.
I absolutely get what you're saying. But I think there's more context necessary than simply households/share.

We are talking about what schools a conference would like to add; and Nielsen didn't design a system for that.


As I said before, The idea that the Cincy/Dayton markets could be divided with a line on the map is absurd. The distance between UD and XU is smaller than the distance between Northridge and Irvine, which are both the LA market. Or Plano and Ft. Worth, which are both the DFW market. All of Long Island is in the NYC Metro Area.

For a conference:
Adding Detroit isn't getting that market, it's Michigan/Mich St bringing it.
Adding Duquesne isn't getting Pittsburgh, it's Pitt and Penn St bringing it.
Adding Georgia State isn't getting Atlanta, Georgia and Georgia Tech bring it.

If you could get Michigan State, Pitt, or Georgia Tech, you'd take them. But they play FBS football. There's really not a lot of options out there for a non-FBS, basketball-centric conference to add big markets.

If Georgia Tech didn't have football, would the Big East Basketball schools invite them? Hell yes. They split that market with Georgia.

Atlanta: 2,326,840 (1.1% = 23,268)
Well, when you ignore that Neilsen divided the area into two DMAs and look at "Southwest Ohio" as the Cincy-Dayton market," it's the #17 market in the US. And it has a 2.06% ESPN share: 1,396,160 households = 28,821 viewers.

Xavier alone brings a sizable chunk of Cincinnati, but there's enough fragmented population (UC fans; UK fans in Northern Kentucky; UD fans in Middleton; Ohio State fans everywhere) that including Dayton ENSURES a sizeable enough share that you can bring that #17 market with a large population.

That's what puts Dayton ahead of someone like VCU or Richmond (who SHARE #57 Richmond: 6,087) or Duquense.

Last edited by jpschmack; 12-02-2012 at 06:28 PM.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:06 PM   #393 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

An unconfirmed report out of a CBS affiliate in Washington DC says that Georgia Tech and the University of Virginia will be leaving the ACC for the Big Ten.

FoxSports Ohio reported this. It was just picked up on the Xavier board.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:15 PM   #394 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Yeah, it must be true if it was posted on a Xavier message board, right? This is the same area that forever changed my outlook on something as innocuous as a watermelon.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:16 PM   #395 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by xudash View Post
An unconfirmed report out of a CBS affiliate in Washington DC says that Georgia Tech and the University of Virginia will be leaving the ACC for the Big Ten.

FoxSports Ohio reported this. It was just picked up on the Xavier board.
Which would mean, what, UConn and Cincinnati to the ACC?
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:18 PM   #396 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
Adding Duquesne isn't getting Pittsburgh, it's Pitt and Penn St bringing it.
Penn State? In football yes. In hoops, no way. In Pittsburgh, the hoops hierarchy is Pitt, Duquesne, Robert Morris, WVU, then Penn State. Penn State has no support in Pittsburgh for basketball.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:41 PM   #397 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by duq81 View Post
Penn State? In football yes. In hoops, no way. In Pittsburgh, the hoops hierarchy is Pitt, Duquesne, Robert Morris, WVU, then Penn State. Penn State has no support in Pittsburgh for basketball.
You are correct, my apologies.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:43 PM   #398 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I'd be really surprised about Georgia Tech if true. I thought the Big 10 demanded new members be in a contiguous state with existing members.
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Old 12-02-2012, 06:53 PM   #399 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The guy who broke the Maryland to the Big Ten story (InsideMDSports.com's Jeff Ermann) threw out a tweet back before it was official, reporting that:

"Rutgers is getting the most play [to go to the Big Ten with Maryland] but multiple sources maintain Georgia Tech is also vying for a Big 10 spot."

So most of this stuff stems from that.

So, if Georgia Tech was TRYING to get into the Big Ten… their president's only reason to deny the rumors would be if the Big Ten didn't want to add them at this time:

“Not true. Not true. We’re happy in the ACC. We’re staying. We’re not going anywhere” -- Georgia Tech president G.P. “Bud” Peterson, Saturday night.
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Old 12-02-2012, 07:00 PM   #400 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I'd be really surprised about Georgia Tech if true. I thought the Big 10 demanded new members be in a contiguous state with existing members.
That's been their policy, but it's not like the policy has held any significance. They've added three school since 1950.

They're not going to add Louisville and Middle Tennesee State JUST so they can add Georgia Tech to abide by their policy.

It just goes without saying that if they vote to add Georgia Tech, they'd be voting to abolish the policy.
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Old 12-02-2012, 08:22 PM   #401 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by Bona Wolf for Pope View Post
Which would mean, what, UConn and Cincinnati to the ACC?
Probably, at least most likely UConn at first.

The question is how long would the ACC take to decide this time. It took them a while to get to the UL decision, versus UConn.

I truly believe we have a luxury as fans, in that we're not as close to all this as are the administrators of these schools and conferences. In other words, I believe people like Swofford are too close to their situations. I wonder if he truly believes that things can now settle down for the ACC now that he replaced UM with UL. Duke's AD (White, formerly of ND) was quoted in an article where he was praising UL's addition. If you asked a lot of these guys two years ago about adding UL - and with all due respect to Louisville - they would have looked at you cross-eyed.

I truly believe the ACC still sees itself as a BCS'esque peer. At least the front office probably is thinking that way. All the schools are too busy making back channel calls to get out. It may happen tomorrow or not.

BTW, I'm not sure the B1G ever had a policy about contiguous states. If they did, they did, even if such a policy were written into their by-laws. Guess how much of a chance such by-laws stand at not being amended at this point. Like jps noted, they aren't going to pick up stuff in KY and TN just to get to a GA school. But they will go ahead and take that GA school because of its market and institutional appeal, not to mention the ability to hop into a part of the SEC's geographical sandbox.

Once again, if the announcement doesn't come tomorrow - if the report is bogus - does anyone here believe it will not come at all?
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Old 12-03-2012, 04:23 AM   #402 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Which would mean, what, UConn and Cincinnati to the ACC?
And then when Virginia and UNC or Duke go to the B1G, the ACC will then absorb USF and Memphis and crow to all that will listen what a marvel that is. And then they sink ever closer to becoming the next C-USA, joining the Big East in that pursuit.

P.S. Memphis would fit extremely well in the ACC --- very good roundball and horrid football!
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Old 12-03-2012, 07:38 AM   #403 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I don't see Cincinnati being a draw to the ACC, Big 12, etc. The football team plays in a tiny stadium by typical college football standards and the appeal isn't spread statewide like many of the other schools in play. If they get nabbed, it will only be because of a lack of options, not because there is some sort of strategic value in adding them.
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Old 12-03-2012, 08:04 AM   #404 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Much of the allure of the Catholic Big East basketball only members is and has been derived from their membership in the Big East and association with schools such as Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville, and UConn. That has allowed these schools to reap television revenues, tv appearances, and be able to rent large off campus venues. Things will be much different going foward for the Catholic basketball onlies. Their revenue streams are going to fall far behind the big boys and hurt their ability to compete at the highest levels (coaches, recruits, on court).

The post showing the campus homes of the basketball onlies is rather telling. These are small venues with little amenities. The schools however have gotten around this by renting nearby large modern arenas. They for some reason never invested in their own full-time facilities on campus like other Catholic schools such as Xavier, UD, and SLU. It will be interesting to see if these schools can make off campus arenas continue to work. Much of these schools large attendance numbers are tied to the high profile schools leaving (or expected to leave) the Big East. Their OOC attendance numbers are not good. Providence drew just 4,307 for Bryant and 4,596 for Holy Cross to the 12,400 seat DDC so far this season. St. John's has played five homes games this season but none at MSG. The Red Storm have drawn an average of 4,151 to the 5,602 seat Carneseca Arena on its campus in the country's largest popultion center (just 3,506 for Detroit). Seton Hall actually played its first game against UMKC at Walsh Gym getting a crowd of 2,600 (which was its capacity). The Prudential Center in downtown Newark actually curtains off the upper tier to make a more intimate setting for Seton Hall games. The name of the opponent is a critical element for these schools in choosing the venue and selling tickets.

It is also worth noting that many of these schools have chosen to play their NIT home games at their small on campus venues in recent years rather than renting out the large arenas. While scheduling may have played some part in this, I can't but help think that cost/attendance factors did not also play into this decision making.

The Catholic basketball only schools of the northeast have dramatically changed over the last 50 years. They used to be all male or mostly male for a long time. They were formerly mostly commuter schools that catered to the sons of local working class Catholics (mostly Irish and Italian descent). That is no longer the case anymore. These mostly liberal arts schools are now dominated by female enrollments (that do not have as much an affinity for sports) that come from outside the school's local area. While the academic standings of these schools have greatly been enhanced over the last 50 years, they have become more detached from their local cities. Their students come from elsewhere and return there upon graduation. These schools have been increasingly relying on the unaffiliated locals for attendance. They have been able to do so due to their inclusion in the Big East of the past. These general public casual fans may not support these schools to the same degree if they are not in a top national conference regularly bringing in the high profile schools. Reality is quickly changing for the BE Catholic basketball onlies and it is not getting better for them. The athletics model that once worked for them may not in the future.

Last edited by RF1; 12-03-2012 at 08:30 AM.
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Old 12-03-2012, 08:12 AM   #405 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Excellent analysis and summary.
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