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Old 12-11-2012, 03:34 PM   #586 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Also if Temple didn't leave would VCU or Butler have joined? Are they traitorous and deserve to be screwed? Or are they cool because they want in your direction?
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:37 PM   #587 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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The 21 team league isn't happening that is the only way Temple can be screwed.
You won't be screwed no matter what. Even if the strength of basketball leaves, the new Big East (CUSA 2.0) is going to have more revenue from TV than all but five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC). You'll be fighting among the poorest of the rich rather than the richest of the poor. 20 years from now, you'll think "Thank God we didn't drop football when the Big East kicked us out!"

The 21-team Atlantic 10 is never happening. Let's look at the Big East schools options if they leave football:

#1 - "A21" - Atlantic 10 with 21-teams (St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul join A-10)
#2 - "14A" - St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul split and add Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Saint Louis and VCU/Richmond and Duquesne
#3 - "14B" - Same as 14A, only with one of VCU OR Richmond, and Creighton

Footprint: People living in the metro areas where there are teams in the conference:
A21 - 54,953,306 (TV contract split 21 ways)
14A - 54,587,930 (TV contract split 14 ways)
14B - 55,465,040 (TV contract split 14 ways)

If leaving was worth their while (guaranteed at least $2 million each from TV), that would make.
A21 - $42.0 million TV deal - $2.0 mil each.
14A - $41.5 million TV deal - $2.9 mil each.
14B - $42.5 million TV deal - $3.1 mil each.

You can argue the value of the TV deal, and assign any dollars you like. But the difference of the Amherst, Olean and Kingston markets are not worth splitting any TV deal an extra SEVEN WAYS. You have three tiny markets and five redundant markets; and that's why they'll never join the A-10.
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:44 PM   #588 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Eh, having Umass and Rhode Island gives you a foot hold in New England, an area that prefers college basketball to college football from my experience. Lots of Umass and URI grads across that whole region. It is a fairly populated area. Springfield, Worcester, Providence, Hartford, etc probably have about 1.5-2.0 million people. A good portion of whom went to Umass or Rhode Island. They are pretty large public schools. But not worth splitting an extra 7 ways. Lots of overlap among philly and DC/virginia schools.
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Old 12-11-2012, 03:47 PM   #589 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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You won't be screwed no matter what. Even if the strength of basketball leaves, the new Big East (CUSA 2.0) is going to have more revenue from TV than all but five conferences (SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC). You'll be fighting among the poorest of the rich rather than the richest of the poor. 20 years from now, you'll think "Thank God we didn't drop football when the Big East kicked us out!"

The 21-team Atlantic 10 is never happening. Let's look at the Big East schools options if they leave football:

#1 - "A21" - Atlantic 10 with 21-teams (St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul join A-10)
#2 - "14A" - St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul split and add Xavier, Dayton, Butler, Saint Louis and VCU/Richmond and Duquesne
#3 - "14B" - Same as 14A, only with one of VCU OR Richmond, and Creighton

Footprint: People living in the metro areas where there are teams in the conference:
A21 - 54,953,306 (TV contract split 21 ways)
14A - 54,587,930 (TV contract split 14 ways)
14B - 55,465,040 (TV contract split 14 ways)

If leaving was worth their while (guaranteed at least $2 million each from TV), that would make.
A21 - $42.0 million TV deal - $2.0 mil each.
14A - $41.5 million TV deal - $2.9 mil each.
14B - $42.5 million TV deal - $3.1 mil each.

You can argue the value of the TV deal, and assign any dollars you like. But the difference of the Amherst, Olean and Kingston markets are not worth splitting any TV deal an extra SEVEN WAYS. You have three tiny markets and five redundant markets; and that's why they'll never join the A-10.
Yeah there is just no viable reason to do the A21. It was the best move for us regardless but not going to be the dream some thought it would be.
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Old 12-11-2012, 04:06 PM   #590 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Eh, having Umass and Rhode Island give you a foot hold in New England. Lots of Umass and URI grads across that whole region. It is a fairly populated area. Springfield, Worcester, Providence, Hartford, etc probably have about 1.5-2.0 million people. A good portion of whom went to Umass or Rhode Island. They are pretty large public schools.
Yes, but:
-- odds are it would end up being a 7-for-1 trade, with the Big East inviting UMass to be their 10th all-sport member.
-- There's six other redundant markets, and Bona's insignificant market.

The pie isn't going to be big enough to slice 20 ways. They'd each get more money in a smaller conference because they'd be bringing the juice. Same reason Drexel, American, Wright State and Robert Morris aren't in the A-10.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:02 PM   #591 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

ESPN had a 5-minute segment on the latest A-10 and Big East machinations at halftime of the SJU-Nova game.

Andy Katz said the Big East only basketball teams might leave because figuring out who owns the Big East brand in a breakup could be a long legal nightmare. He said the A-10 is monitoring the situation and is very open to inviting all seven BE basketball schools into the conference.

Sure sounds like the A-10 is being the aggressor and trying to put on a united front.

Either that, or the commish is putting on a great game face and making it sound like the league is united via well-placed leaks.

On the other hand, Dino Guadio (sp?) was the analyst. He said his sources say the A-10 would not expand to 21 teams. He said his sources told him that the A-10 would likely be a smaller conference, say 16 teams, and he implied that the Big East teams would not want to play in the small dumpy arenas of Fordham and LaSalle.

Having a lot of X connections, Dino's comments suggest he is reflecting the view of the Musketeer admin.

Very interesting stuff. I like that the A-10 is sounding like it's out in front. But who knows how it will all play out. My school, UMass, might not even be in the league's long-range plans.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:06 PM   #592 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Yeah I saw that as well. That's certainly interesting. Tense times for many of us in the A-10. Either way someone is likely getting shafted. I don't see how a 21-member conference would be feasible or why the Big East bball school would agree to split what is very likely a smaller pie than what they would be getting in the new Big East 21 ways.

Them joining our conference would also mean that they were not able to dissolve the conference and keep their NCAA revenue shares. They would be taking a massive pay cut to make such a league possible.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:12 PM   #593 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I'm disappointed that I missed that segment. So if my math is working correctly, then 16 - 2 + 7 - 5 = Gaudio's 16.

Who are the 5?
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:16 PM   #594 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Dino Gaudio said that Georgetown and St. John's aren't going from playing at the Carrier Dome and the Petersen Events Center at Pitt to playing at 'Rose Hill Gym at Fordham and the 3rd level of that gym at La Salle' when he said that his sources told him that the Big East 7 wouldn't be joining an A-10 with a 21-team arrangement.

Ouch.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:19 PM   #595 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I'm disappointed that I missed that segment. So if my math is working correctly, then 16 - 2 + 7 - 5 = Gaudio's 16.

Who are the 5?
Villanova, Seton Hall, Providence, St. John's, DePaul.

I'll take Marquette and Georgetown. I'll take St. John's next if UMass decides to leave. The others can figure out their own problems. They weren't here for us when the Big East was formed so now that the A-10 is in a position of power I see no reason to look out for them.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:19 PM   #596 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Doctor John Giannini deserves better than that.

What the hell happened to ExplorerSteve by the way?
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:20 PM   #597 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

If Dino Gaudio had such good sources he would have a coaching job by now.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:22 PM   #598 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Dino Gaudio said that Georgetown and St. John's aren't going from playing at the Carrier Dome and the Petersen Events Center at Pitt to playing at 'Rose Hill Gym at Fordham and the 3rd level of that gym at La Salle' when he said that his sources told him that the Big East 7 wouldn't be joining an A-10 with a 21-team arrangement.

Ouch.
Because their on campus arenas are so much better... Good luck filling up Verizon and MSG when Cuse, ND, and Pitt aren't coming. The arrogance of these Big East schools is astounding. They are in for a huge wake up call when they lose the football money.
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Old 12-11-2012, 05:22 PM   #599 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by DistrictBaller View Post
Dino Gaudio said that Georgetown and St. John's aren't going from playing at the Carrier Dome and the Petersen Events Center at Pitt to playing at 'Rose Hill Gym at Fordham and the 3rd level of that gym at La Salle' when he said that his sources told him that the Big East 7 wouldn't be joining an A-10 with a 21-team arrangement.

Ouch.
Yes, because Georgetown and St. Johns are used to playing in much more lavish arenas.

St. Johns



Georgetown

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Old 12-11-2012, 05:26 PM   #600 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The irony of the remark about the arenas did make me laugh when I heard the segment. Only Nova has a good on-campus arena among the seven.
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