jpschmack

Agreed. And that's why this won't be a one-shot deal.

Let's say they add Xavier, Saint Louis, Butler for 10. They might get 3-4 bids.
But the A-10 will add George Mason for 12. And we might get 2-4 bids ourselves.

So they'll add our best two teams* to expand to 12 schools (let's say it's Dayton and VCU). Then they'll get 4-5 bids.
But we'll add whomever's winning the CAA, MAAC, etc and we'll get 1-2 bids.

So they'll add Creighton, and whomever is consistently winning the A-10* for 14, etc.

In 20 years, the "Big East" will be the "Atlantic 10" with St. John's, Prov, Nova, Hall, GTown, Marquette and Creighton instead of Fordham, URI, St Joe's, Bona, GW, Temple, and LaSalle.

*-barring them sharing markets.

paulxu

If the "new" conference doesn't have a better TV deal for the BE 7 than what they see long term in the BE...there probably wouldn't be a new conference.

__________________
...he went up late, and I was already up there.

Medford

If the debate is 8-12 teams, then I think its an easy decision to go to 12. Obvoiusly 8 teams doesn't work, 9 makes for a nice round robin, home & away, 10 sets you up for 18 games which may be 2 too many, 11 doesn't really work at all, 12 gets you divisions and back to 16.

The other thing that 12 gets you from a TV standpoint is a significantly larger inventory of games, more potential for great matchups. At the end of the day no one wants to watch Depaul, few want to watch Seton Hall v Providence, etc... there are only so many times you can play Gtown vs Marquette or whatever the key matchups end up being. The more solid to great programs the add, the more insulation they have to the natural down turns programs see from time to time. TV networks like to have more options and 12 gives you that. Based upon the teams in the conversation and the teams w/n the BE7, none of the teams mentioned are going to significantly alter the payout/team revenue stream from what they would get at 9 or 10 teams. Plus as others have said, if you really want to seperate yourself from the A-10, MVC or whatever congregation UC, UConn, Memphis, Temple, etc.. end up in, you need to make your conference as strong as possible.

a10nick

The examples you are giving are similar to a Conservative Republican denying the likelihood of Global Warming on a day in July when the temperature doesn't exceed 73 degrees or a day in March when the mercury dips to single digits.

Just as "Climate" is measured by averages over a 30-year period of time, the health of a basketball program is determined by a consistency shown over a period of a decade or more at least.

Look back at the records of LaSalle, Duquesne, and Fordham since their entrance into the A-10 and THEN ask the rest of us why you sometimes see posts that you don't like about your school's basketball programs.

__________________
I just want the team I support to be in a stronger conference. I'd prefer it to be a stronger A-10! To me that would mean every member would have at least 2 trips to the NCAA Tourney and 5 winning seasons during each 10-year cycle. It would also be great for every program to seriously challenge for a league title (either regular season or Tourney) at least once during that same period of time.

A10BBall

Per ESPN and now Sportscenter:

The seven Catholic schools in the Big East have agreed to leave the conference, but Georgetown is not on board with the process of departure, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.


Maybe Georgetown wants to dissolve the conference and others don't?

DukesDan

If the A10 just stayed together as is it would be the best non football conference. It is likely that schools like Fordham would eventually (and finally) become good. The BE7 is in such an awful position and only has its history to play. It is actually incredible that we would let these programs break up the best non football conference.

This league is throwing away a future of 6 bids a year. The top teams are making a lateral shift based on assumptions that the BE7 will somehow recapture the magic of the Big East. Newsflash: The best teams in the Big East are long gone! Pitt, Syracuse, West Virgina, Louisville, Uconn are not going to be able to prop up those basketball schools any more and they will fall to middle of the pack A10 levels.

The upper hand is ours if we want it.

A10 schools have been making big progress and are poised to be excellent programs. Duquesne very much included.


EDIT: and without Georgetown the new conference is done. I would not be surprised to hear Gtown to ACC.

__________________
Duquesne Dukes: 2012 A10 tournament qualifier!!

2012-2013 Locks of the Day TBA
2011-2012 Locks of the Day NIT participant 29-26-0...... .527
2010-2011 Locks of the Day Regular Season Champion 31-20-4 ..... .600

#15 Cooper #11 Green #10 Nixon #12 Ricketts #24 Somerset

College Hoops

Assuming the seven BE teams leave there seems to be a presumption that they'll have the same aura they previously had. No longer will Syracuse, Louisville, UCONN, WVU, Notre Dame etc. be on the schedule at least once and in some cases, twice during a season. It won't be long before their recruiting an attendance take a hit. People say they can schedule a quality OOC schedule, but it takes two parties to do that. Do you think UCLA, Baylor or other major programs are chomping at the bit to schedule a home and home with Providence? They're not bringing Duke, UNC UK Kansas into a grouping with the BE seven so if you only add two or three teams regardless of who they are its hard to see them being appreciably better then a conference that could be put together with the teams left out.

Muddy Waters

For those of you who are just tuning in to this thread, here are today’s highlights so far:


Muddy’s Observations:

(1) According to the information published last night and today, the BE7 schools will dissolve the Big East Conference tomorrow.

(2) The BE7 schools will then form a basketball conference and try to keep the Big East brand name.

(3) The BE7 schools will then invite 3 or 5 other schools in order to form a 10-school or 12-school conference.

(4) If the BE7 invites only 3 schools, Xavier is a lock, Dayton is likely a lock, and Saint Louis would likely get the nod over Butler, as that would form a 10-team all-Catholic conference that would play 18 regular season games (home and away against each conference opponent).

(5) If the BE7 invites 5 schools, Xavier, Dayton, and Saint Louis are locks, and Butler would likely get the nod over Creighton in the West Division. VCU or Richmond would likely get invited to fill out the 6-school East Division, and each of the 12 teams would play 16 regular-season games. In this scenario, Richmond is quite similar to Butler in that both schools are non-sectarian private universities with traditions of supporting belief in Christianity and in Christian values. VCU is a state-supported university, which could leave them odd man out, despite having a stronger basketball program than Richmond.

East Division

Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Villanova
Virginia Commonwealth or Richmond (non-Catholic member)

West Division

Butler (non-Catholic member)
Dayton
DePaul
Marquette
Saint Louis
Xavier

(6) Therefore, after the split, the BE7 will first need to decide if they want a 10-school all-Catholic conference or a 12-school conference with two Divisions, each having one non-Catholic member.

(7) If the BE7 decides on a 12-school conference, the decision between Richmond and VCU will be difficult.

(8) The only apparent scenario in which Creighton might be invited to join the BE7 would be if the BE7 opted for an 11-school all-Catholic conference that included Xavier, Dayton, and Saint Louis, and Creighton. Possible, but not very likely in my opinion.

(9) Saint Louis with Rick Majerus would have been a much more desirable addition to the BE7 than Saint Louis without Rick Majerus. This may yet come into play.

(10) In the unlikely event that the BE7 limits their expansion to a 10-school conference that includes Xavier, Dayton, and Butler, the Atlantic 10 school nearest to Saint Louis would be Duquesne in Pittsburgh.

In this scenario, Saint Louis would likely join AP # 13 Creighton in the Missouri Valley Conference, which holds its annual Conference Tournament in St. Louis.

Therefore, it would appear that Saint Louis will be leaving the Atlantic 10 and either joining the BE7 conference or the MVC.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDIT: articles added:


Seven Schools Debating How To Go (Brett McMurphy, Andy Katz, and Dana O'Neil, ESPN - December 13, 2012, 7:45 PM ET)

The seven Catholic schools leaving should allow Notre Dame and Louisville to join Syracuse and Pitt in the ACC next season ahead of schedule, Irish coach Mike Brey said Thursday.

Notre Dame was supposed to stay in the Big East for a 27-month period, which could mean as long as the 2015 season. But the Irish have been negotiating an early exit.

Brey also said the discussion among the Catholic schools was to make it a national Catholic conference with Xavier, Saint Louis, Dayton, Creighton, Gonzaga and possibly Saint Mary's as well.

Big East Basketball: Back to the Future (Washington Post - December 14, 2012)

According to multiple reports, those seven — Georgetown, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, Villanova, DePaul and Marquette — have informed the league that they’re taking their basketballs and going home. Or, more accurately, leaving home.

Those schools let Commissioner Mike Aresco know their intentions to leave during a conference call on Thursday during which Aresco tried to convince them to reconsider.

. . . All of that led to Thursday’s decision to bolt. The only question now is what form their leaving will take.

There are a number of options — all of them tied to money. If the seven leave en masse they will not, by rule, have to pay an exit fee. On the flip side, they won’t share in the roughly $50 million owed by the five schools that have previously departed. They could vote to dissolve the league. It takes a two-thirds vote, and only South Florida, Connecticut and Cincinnati also have votes on dissolution (Temple is a voting member but not on dissolution). So the votes would be there if needed. Of course it would be difficult then to try to demand exit fees from a league that no longer exists.

More important, long-term, is where the seven schools go next. They could join the Atlantic 10 and create the ludicrous specter of a 21-team conference. Imagine the slogan for the A-10 tournament: “The most exciting three weeks of championship week!”

Or, more logically, and more likely, they could cherry-pick several schools that are similar in profile: Dayton, Xavier, Butler, Saint Joseph’s and even Creighton have been mentioned. Those five plus the old-Big East seven would be a formidable basketball league. Even three of those five would make for a conference that will be very attractive to a TV network. There will be no Tulane-Houston games in that package.

__________________

DukesDan

The conference can not be dissolved without the votes of 2 football schools according to Pete Thamel.

__________________
Duquesne Dukes: 2012 A10 tournament qualifier!!

2012-2013 Locks of the Day TBA
2011-2012 Locks of the Day NIT participant 29-26-0...... .527
2010-2011 Locks of the Day Regular Season Champion 31-20-4 ..... .600

#15 Cooper #11 Green #10 Nixon #12 Ricketts #24 Somerset

El Shaqtus

I don't like where this is headed if Xavier/Dayton/Butler go in this expansion(looking at Muddy's Point 9).

Scary stuff for the Bills.

The last paragraph is the really scary part. MVC...at this point, give me the GLVC. Total irrelevance at that point. (Yes, I used to be in the MVC camp before I saw a legitimate conference).

__________________
Mom, thanks for everything.

RIP Coach Rick Majerus 12/1/12. You were the one that said it was OK to think big at SLU. You were right.

KVBL Lexington Kings

twisted3829

scary spot for many middle A10 teams

__________________
2010-2011 Lock of the Day Contest NIT Champion

Title_BU

Muddy,

You forgot to add to your synopses that Goodman said sources say the schools specifically spoke of adding Xavier, Butler, and St Louis.

Probably just simple oversight.

El Shaqtus

Yeah. I was kinda homering for a second.

The one "advantage" a lot of A-10 schools have now is location. SLU's closest conference member in the "disaster" scenario would be Duquense. No way that is feasible for SLU.

__________________
Mom, thanks for everything.

RIP Coach Rick Majerus 12/1/12. You were the one that said it was OK to think big at SLU. You were right.

KVBL Lexington Kings

xavierhoops

Where do you get only 3-4 bids for the new Big East and then 2-4 for the A-10??

Xavier, Butler, Georgetown and Marquette all go to the NCAA essentially every year (in Xavier’s case) or the vast majority of the time. Then add in Villanova and St Louis getting their fair share of bids as well.

Who is left in the A-10? VCU. And then George Mason would get their fair share. Maybe Dayton, maybe Richmond once in a while. Maybe UMass if they are in the A-10?

It’d probably be more like 4-5 for the new Big East and 1-3 for the A-10. And that’s just appearances… that isn’t taking into consideration games played which is where the NCAA credits and money comes from.

One thing we can all agree on is the A-10 without Xavier, Butler and St Louis isn't a 4 bid conference.

__________________
Chris Mack in 3 years at Xavier has had twice the NCAA wins (4) of the entire Dayton coaching staff in the modern era of NCAA basketball (2).

Keith Braswell

Don't worry Dayton is not getting invited. Take that to the bank. If I am right Muddy should be banned.

__________________
NCAA appearnaces since 1990:

Xavier 17
Temple 16
Butler 10
Charlotte 9
GW 8
Umass 7
VCU 6
Richmond 6
St. Louis 5
St. Joes 5
UD 5
URI 4
St. Bonny 2
LaSalle 1
Fordham 1
Dusquesne 0