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Old 12-17-2012, 07:45 AM   #1201 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

You people are all f-ing crazy. Nobody is dissolving anything. The minute you start a "brand new conference" you are waiting three years for the auto bid to be in effect. Even this Catholic conferene is not giving that up. More than likely there will be some shifting between A-10 and the BE and there will probably be a school three that end up shifting elsewhere in the process.

The Holy Schools still have enough cache` that they will be able to demand that some of the low hanging fruit be dropped before they grace the A-10 (or whatever they change the confernece name to) with their presence. The bottom line is there is too much $$ at stake for a 3 year NCAA waiting period.
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Old 12-17-2012, 07:50 AM   #1202 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Confused by your response, Knobby--the BE7 have announced they are leaving. Under the rules, though, they will get an auto-bid right away because they are seven schools who have been together in a conference for at least five years. I expect they will negotiate with the FB schools to take the Big East name and the MSG tournament rights.

I've seen internet discussion of whether the remaining BE members would need to get a waiver to have an auto-bid, because only three of them (UConn, UC, USF) have been in a conference together for any length of time. Not sure how that works.
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:40 AM   #1203 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
This is what bugs me. I know I harp on this all the time, but…

When people say "why are is the BE7 better than the A-10? DePaul has been awful by RPI. Providence, St. John's and Seton Hall all have worse NCAA resumes than blah blah blah… it doesn't mean anything. Because DePaul's horrible RPI/Record comes from playing 18 Big East games. Which they won't be playing anymore.

"What makes them better than us?" boils down to one simple factor. OOC win percentage. RPI is redundant system based on circular logic: Having a good record doesn't make you good. Having a good record against teams with good record is what makes you good.

As I said before, every conference goes .500 against itself. The teams that are at the top of the conference standings are gonna have good records. And they're going to have played 17-21 games out of 31-34 against their conference mates.

So what makes one conference stronger than another, or what makes teams have better RPIs than another is nothing more than how your conference does OOC.

Big East last 5 seasons:
.7650 Win Pct (3rd) vs .4963 SOS (25th)
.7950 Win Pct (2nd) vs .5129 SOS (4th)
.8051 Win Pct (3rd) vs .5087 SOS (10th)
.7744 Win Pct (5th) vs .5012 SOS (13th)
.7347 Win Pct (5th) vs .4988 SOS (15th)

A-10 last 5 seasons
.6186 Win Pct (7th) vs .5141 SOS (5th)
.5864 Win Pct (9th) vs .5062 SOS (5th)
.6243 Win Pct (9th) vs .5192 SOS (4th)
.5926 Win Pct (9th) vs .5068 SOS (8th)
.6432 Win Pct (8th) vs .5067 SOS (9th)

They win more, against weaker teams, and therefore are rated higher. Their conference games are worth more SOS to each team, and they get more bids.

Is the BE7 better than us? OOC last five years:
A14: .6111 Win Pct (No VCU, No Butler)
A16: .6258 Win Pct (VCU, Butler)
BE7: .7500 Win Pct
A12: .6078 Win Pct (X, SLU, Butler leave)
A12+ .6140 Win Pct (X, SLU, Butler, UMass leave; GMU is added)

So, yes. Yes they are. But we can CONTROL our OOC win pct, by playing weaker teams OOC, having a better record, making our conference games worth more. Of course, because people don't understand the conference effect of RPI, we'll probably do the opposite and play harder OOC games because we lost Temple and Xavier (shakes head).
In a vaccuum, this is true. In reality, not quite perfect logic. It's true that this would help the CONFERENCE as a whole have gaudy, inflated RPI numbers, but upon analyzing each TEAM you could make an argument that there's no 'there' there. While Syracuse goes 13-2 each OOC and never leaves upstate NY, except maybe to play a 'neutral' game at MSG or in Albany, they usually do post at least a few impressive victories in the OOC to hang their hat upon. The reason teams in the A10 schedule tougher games is to have possible calling cards on their resumes. Your point that if everyone simply went 12-3 OOC, then many conference games would be calling cards doesn't hold up. Case in point so far this year? The University of Richmond. Best start in two decades, a disgruntled fan base and a SOS of 300+. Granted teams like ODU and Wake Forest shouldn't be as bad as they are, but that's how it fell. If UR goes 12-3 OOC (losing at Kansas, winning against Mason, Davidson and Air Force) does that make them good? It just makes it not a bad loss, not a great win. It's an awfully thin line to walk. UR could, in theory still make the NCAA tourney, but would need to beat teams that have actual quality wins to do so.

Simply put, what's good for the conference is not what's best for a team with NCAA aspirations.

Oh, and Depawful is brutal. Let's not forget they're a couple seasons removed from a winless conference season. Ole Jer knows how to plumb those depths. Anyone forgetting this should rethink their bottom feeder comments.
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:58 AM   #1204 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

You know, I had a bit of an epiphany over the weekend. I want Dayton to get invited to this new league, but deep down, I truly don't care if they are. It's not going to change my life, nor will it effect my love of UD or college basketball as a whole.

This whole discussion has become comical. Argue about the latest report, take shots at everyone, then do it all again when a report comes out that refutes or amends the previous report. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Following every detail like that is insane.

Wake me when the invites go out. If Dayton gets in, great. If not, well, it's not like UD will close up shop.
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Old 12-17-2012, 09:04 AM   #1205 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer View Post
You know, I had a bit of an epiphany over the weekend. I want Dayton to get invited to this new league, but deep down, I truly don't care if they are. It's not going to change my life, nor will it effect my love of UD or college basketball as a whole.

This whole discussion has become comical. Argue about the latest report, take shots at everyone, then do it all again when a report comes out that refutes or amends the previous report. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Following every detail like that is insane.

Wake me when the invites go out. If Dayton gets in, great. If not, well, it's not like UD will close up shop.
Well said, ATF.
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Old 12-17-2012, 02:33 PM   #1206 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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A higher % of the BE7 are in the RPI Top100 than the A10. Not sure what your point is A10BBall?
RPI is derived primary from conference affiliation.
Xavier played 19 of 33 games last season against A-10 teams.
Marquette played 19 of 32 games last season against Big East teams.

Most of RPI = total OOC win pct by your conference. When you switch teams around into different conferences, the numbers will change.

What makes the BE7 "better than us" is that they win more OOC games. (Of course, watch both the BE7 and A10 both schedule harder going to an easier conference, and Xavier, Saint Louis and Butler schedule easier going to a harder conference).

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Originally Posted by SDW View Post
In a vaccuum, this is true. In reality, not quite perfect logic. It's true that this would help the CONFERENCE as a whole have gaudy, inflated RPI numbers, but upon analyzing each TEAM you could make an argument that there's no 'there' there. While Syracuse goes 13-2 each OOC and never leaves upstate NY, except maybe to play a 'neutral' game at MSG or in Albany, they usually do post at least a few impressive victories in the OOC to hang their hat upon. The reason teams in the A10 schedule tougher games is to have possible calling cards on their resumes. Your point that if everyone simply went 12-3 OOC, then many conference games would be calling cards doesn't hold up. Case in point so far this year? The University of Richmond. Best start in two decades, a disgruntled fan base and a SOS of 300+. Granted teams like ODU and Wake Forest shouldn't be as bad as they are, but that's how it fell. If UR goes 12-3 OOC (losing at Kansas, winning against Mason, Davidson and Air Force) does that make them good? It just makes it not a bad loss, not a great win. It's an awfully thin line to walk. UR could, in theory still make the NCAA tourney, but would need to beat teams that have actual quality wins to do so.

Simply put, what's good for the conference is not what's best for a team with NCAA aspirations.
I could go point-by-point, but I don't want to write a novel on this (again). It sounds like you are with me on the math, just not with what the selection committee would do with teams resumes:

Iowa St, Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Colo St, Notre Dame, Cal and USF (none); New Mexico (beat #31 SLU), West Virginia (#48 K-State), NC St (#50 Texas), Texas (Temple). That's 11 teams who went 4-20 OOC against Top 50 RPI teams. And two of those wins were against each other. All 11 made the NCAA Tournament, 10 via at-large.

Secondly, we're not talking about a whole-scale reduction of OOC SOS across the board that would eliminate all our conferences marquee wins. We're talking about (OOC SOS)

PLAY ONE LESS TOUGH GAME VS BCS TEAMS
81 DUQ 8-5 - (they have to play Pitt, so dump at Arizona)
103 RICH 9-6 - (Illinois/Rutgers was a tournament, so dump at UCLA)
191 BONA 7-5 - (their schedule was perfect for their team last year with Nicholson. Just beat Ark State.)
232 CHAR 8-5 - (Miami and Memphis. Pick one).
EGADS, FIX THAT:
48 GWU 5-9 (0-7 vs Top 120 RPI teams, 5-2 vs 120+)
196 URI 3-12 (0-7 vs Top 150 RPI teams, 10 games vs top 10 conferences; 3-5 vs 150+).

Everyone else did their job.

so what marquee games are we losing off our OOC schedule? Those six teams combined went 0-16 in their marquee game attempts (or 3-16 if you want to count Wake Forest and BC).
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:34 PM   #1207 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer View Post
You know, I had a bit of an epiphany over the weekend. I want Dayton to get invited to this new league, but deep down, I truly don't care if they are. It's not going to change my life, nor will it effect my love of UD or college basketball as a whole.

This whole discussion has become comical. Argue about the latest report, take shots at everyone, then do it all again when a report comes out that refutes or amends the previous report. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Following every detail like that is insane.

Wake me when the invites go out. If Dayton gets in, great. If not, well, it's not like UD will close up shop.
It's funny. We're acting like this is the A-10 apocalypse. But really not much changes.

We'll be playing second fiddle to the BE7. Same as before.
Temple and Xavier will be better than us? Yeah, that's not new.
Butler will not in the A-10. Still ain't played an official conference game yet.
Dayton playing to make themselves look better for an invite to a new Catholic league? Duquense trying to do the same, but with a lot more work to do? I've been hearing that for a while now.

Every team "ahead of us" in the college basketball world has been ahead of the remaining A-10 schools the entire time. And The same amount of NCAA bids will be available to us.

Last season, Temple & Xavier got at-large bids and one of the non-inviteds won the A-10 tournament. That will just happen every year now.
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Old 12-17-2012, 03:54 PM   #1208 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

That is funny.
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Old 12-17-2012, 04:08 PM   #1209 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
It's funny. We're acting like this is the A-10 apocalypse. But really not much changes.

We'll be playing second fiddle to the BE7. Same as before.
Temple and Xavier will be better than us? Yeah, that's not new.
Butler will not in the A-10. Still ain't played an official conference game yet.
Dayton playing to make themselves look better for an invite to a new Catholic league? Duquense trying to do the same, but with a lot more work to do? I've been hearing that for a while now.

Every team "ahead of us" in the college basketball world has been ahead of the remaining A-10 schools the entire time. And The same amount of NCAA bids will be available to us.

Last season, Temple & Xavier got at-large bids and one of the non-inviteds won the A-10 tournament. That will just happen every year now.
The difference will be in recruiting. It is much easier to get a player to choose your school if you are playing teams like Xavier and Temple every year. It is easier to get recruits when they know they will be playing games on TV. Losing the marque teams means harder time recruiting which means your program may very well regress.
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Old 12-17-2012, 04:52 PM   #1210 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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And The same amount of NCAA bids will be available to us.

Last season, Temple & Xavier got at-large bids and one of the non-inviteds won the A-10 tournament. That will just happen every year now.
Xavier and Temple will continue to earn NCAA bids on a near annual basis.

The NCAA selection committee doesn't "set aside" 3 bids per year for the Atlantic 10 conference.

I'm not seeing the logic where Xavier and Temple and St Louis leave the A-10, yet the A-10 keeps chugging right along getting the same number of bids... "that will just happen every year now." Other than Dayton (if they don't get a conference invite), I don't see any other team really capitalizing on more NCAA bids.

I'm just not that high on an A-10 consisting of Dayton, Richmond, UMass, Bona, George Mason, La Salle, Rhode Island, Duquesne, Fordham, George Washington.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:01 PM   #1211 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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The NCAA selection committee doesn't "set aside" 3 bids per year for the Atlantic 10 conference.

I'm not seeing the logic where Xavier and Temple and St Louis leave the A-10, yet the A-10 keeps chugging right along getting the same number of bids... "that will just happen every year now."
"that will just happen every year now" was referencing someone else getting the A-10's AUTOMATIC bid. That's a given. We'll have at least one.

Yes, I understand that teams earn bids, not conferences (The NCAA selection committee isn't setting aside bids for Temple and Xavier in their new leagues, either).

We're talking about projections of the likelihood of future results based on the past results.

The difference between our two arguments, is I'm using how conference structure affects bracket math, and you're looking at names on the front of a jersey. Didn't we already go over this?

The bids earned by the BE7 are not going to come at the expense of the Atlantic 10. They will come at the expense of:
-- Horizon, C-USA, CAA, WAC (formerly 1-2 bid leagues depending on who won the tournament. Butler, Memphis, VCU or Utah St/Nevada and those who remain haven't won enough OOC together to make their champ anything at-large worthy).
-- MWC (formerly a 3-4 bid league).
The MWC lost/is losing teams that did well OOC (Utah, BYU, SDSU) and replacing them with SJSU, USU, FS, NEV. It looks like a push given how NEV/USU have performed in the last decade, but they're also losing their ability to manipulate RPI. Their conference schedule gets much much bigger, lowering all their RPIs. Every conference game moves your SOS towards .500.
SDSU won't get an at-large anymore, they'll get the BWC auto-bid.

As for the BCS conferences…
The ACC isn't adding four bids to their conference by adding SU, Pitt, ND and Louisville. Someone will get squeezed down in the conference standings. They can't all finish in the top half of the league. Ditto the bigger Big Ten and SEC.

This is not much different than what happened the last time around: The Big East added five schools from C-USA, four of whom were perennial NCAA teams (CIN, LOUIS, DEP, MARQ, USF). How much did the amount of bids going to BCS teams go up? Certainly not by four. It was just over ONE (1.35). The ACC added teams… and didn't really add any bids because they beat on each other more!

And of course, last season, they added four more at-large bids to the pool. Every conference goes .500 against itself. Like I said our OOC win pct over the last five years is .611. Swap X, SLU, Charlotte and Temple for VCU and George Mason and it plummets all the way to .609.

Forgive me for not being terrified.
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Old 12-17-2012, 06:03 PM   #1212 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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The difference will be in recruiting. It is much easier to get a player to choose your school if you are playing teams like Xavier and Temple every year. It is easier to get recruits when they know they will be playing games on TV. Losing the marque teams means harder time recruiting which means your program may very well regress.
That's true. But isn't that all the more reason to play RPI games and schedule for more OOC wins?

If you miss the tourney, at least you'll have a decent record to recruit with. It's a lot harder to convince kids you're better than "the big schools" if you keep playing them and getting your tail whipped.
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:08 PM   #1213 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

jpschmack furthers illustrates why I do not fear Dayton getting left behind. Make no mistake, I want Dayton in. It would be really fun to see Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette on the schedule every year, and it would be quite the adjustment not to see Xavier twice.

But even if they are left behind, Dayton's destiny is still controlled by the same people who always controlled it...Dayton. NCAA bids aren't disappearing, they are only going to be added over time. Dayton's path to an at-large will still be based on the games Dayton wins or loses.

The Xavier rivalry would shift to OOC or go away, and anyone who has read my posts knows I have no issue with that. College basketball rivalries are never permanent, it's the nature of the game itself. There are no college basketball rivalries that match Ohio State/Michigan, Army/Navy, USC/Notre Dame, or Florida State/Florida. None. Not even Duke/UNC. Football games make or break a season, basketball rivalries make or break an evening. And hell, even iconic football rivalries disappear from time to time. Ask Texas and Texas A&M fans.

Notre Dame, Marquette, and DePaul used to be the biggest nights at UD Arena well before it was Xavier. Without Xavier, it would be someone new. VCU, Richmond, St Joes, George Mason...someone would emerge as a "circle the date" rival, probably sooner than most people think.

As a fan, I fear Dayton moving to the new league far more than I fear being left behind. It's a good fear, similar to proposing marriage, but a legit fear. Every program in the discussion has visions of going to the new league and leaping right to the top, but no one ever mentions the pit. It's possible Dayton isn't good enough, that they'd be the DePaul of that league. At least one of the A10 teams who leave will be, it's just common sense. Look at every mass realignment we have ever seen in college sports. There are always winners, and there are always losers. And then look at what becomes of the leagues that teams leave behind, rarely do they just crumble into dust. Dayton, or anyone, being forced to stay in the A10 is not a punishment.

Dayton was that loser once already in their 25 or so years as members of a conference. As much as I want Dayton in the new league, it is because of the Great Midwest failure that I don't fear the alternative. Dayton, and whoever else doesn't get the call, still control their destiny. Things will always work out over time if you go about the process in the right way. I think that's from Boy Meets World. The process trumps everything. New league or A10, my only concern is what Dayton is doing to improve every year.
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Old 12-17-2012, 08:28 PM   #1214 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Adam...

Good point on rivalries. Look at Mizzou/Kansas.
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Old 12-17-2012, 09:00 PM   #1215 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

If the reports out of Wisconsin are true, and it's UD, X, and Butler, great, but I'd still prefer a 12 team format (not that I get a say in that)

At any rate, the UD of today is vastly different than the UD of the great Midwest. Their athletic program was in terrible shape, outsid of D3 football and 10,000 + fans a night. The support facilities are great, and they put a tof money into the behind the scenes stuff where UD was well behind in the 90s. Frankly given fan support, local talent, facilities, and financial backing, UD, x, slu, etc... are in better shape than many of the be7.
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