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Old 11-20-2012, 09:45 AM   #121 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Old 11-20-2012, 10:05 AM   #122 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I don't think it's as certain or likely that it dissolves like some here but I will admit the chances are higher than they have ever been. There will be football in the Big East. The problem is it may involve a bunch of CUSA type teams. The contract will still slightly be more than an A-10 contract and you have to factor in buyouts as well. So financially which has been the decision maker for every decision so far it would favor the catholic schools sticking it out where they are and poaching from the A-10. UMass may get the first decision coming up and if they announce they are leaving for the Big East that may start the trend of poaching. I know A-10 is in a position of strength but the money still slightly leans the other way and that has been a powerful incentive so far.
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:13 AM   #123 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I don't think it's as certain or likely that it dissolves like some here but I will admit the chances are higher than they have ever been. There will be football in the Big East. The problem is it may involve a bunch of CUSA type teams. The contract will still slightly be more than an A-10 contract and you have to factor in buyouts as well. So financially which has been the decision maker for every decision so far it would favor the catholic schools sticking it out where they are and poaching from the A-10. UMass may get the first decision coming up and if they announce they are leaving for the Big East that may start the trend of poaching. I know A-10 is in a position of strength but the money still slightly leans the other way and that has been a powerful incentive so far.
Exactly. The BE brand is still stronger than the A10 brand or any other non-BCS brand, at least for basketball. Why would they give that up? They will do whatever it takes, and if that means poaching football CUSA type schools and keeping a little bit of extra money in the short term, they will do it. If it means branding itself as the 'classic' Big East - an east coast, basketball-first conference, they will do it. And in that instance, having access to MSG, Verizon Center in DC, etc. becomes much more of a positive for television purposes. St. John's/Georgetown at MSG/Verizon or GW/Lasalle at Smith/Gola? Easy choice for television people.

If the BE is proactive, they might be positioning themselves where we want the A10 to be at in 5 years - the elite non-football conference. Say what you like about the recent quality of some of those programs, but they can bounce back easier than say Fordham or Lasalle. Just look at Providence's recruiting class this year. Most A10 schools would have killed for it.
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:14 AM   #124 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I don't think it's as certain or likely that it dissolves like some here but I will admit the chances are higher than they have ever been. There will be football in the Big East. The problem is it may involve a bunch of CUSA type teams. The contract will still slightly be more than an A-10 contract and you have to factor in buyouts as well. So financially which has been the decision maker for every decision so far it would favor the catholic schools sticking it out where they are and poaching from the A-10. UMass may get the first decision coming up and if they announce they are leaving for the Big East that may start the trend of poaching. I know A-10 is in a position of strength but the money still slightly leans the other way and that has been a powerful incentive so far.
I am confused. The Big East staying together and poaching A-10 schools for basketball only?

No way in the world they would do that. Travel costs increases tremendously and the exit fee close to $10 million for a conference that is fairly average for basketball is no way attractive for an A-10 basketball school. Some of the football schools in the BE for football are just terrible basketball schools.

Some merit for a basketball only conference but we have logically deduced that is neither feasible nor attractive.
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:31 AM   #125 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The Big 10 is now going to be more like the Big 15. I think arguably they are the best basketball conference with this move and can contend with the SEC in football. The A10 in my opinion moves up as a major conference...I mean who is left in the Big East after that.
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:42 AM   #126 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The Big East's western expansion will probably fall apart. In response, I expect them to continue to raid the rest of the "Group of 5" conferences. My guess, the Big East ends up as: Cincy, Temple, UCF, USF, Navy, UMass, Memphis, Army

Is that anywhere near the big five conferences? No, but they're not at that level now anyway, and at least those schools are generally eastern teams.

Combined with the B-Ball only schools, and that's still a solid basketball conference, although probably a step beneath the Big 5 conferences there as well.
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:44 AM   #127 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

I will offer my “best case” scenario in all of this. I would love to see ALL of the teams in next year’s A-10 merge with ALL of the seven basketball onlies from the Big East (plus a few) and form 1 mega-conference ,containing two subconferences. The benefits of this would be:
• No team from either league gets left out
• There is safety and stability in the greater number of like-minded schools
• The divisions below would reduce travel costs for all the non-basketball sports, appealing to the presidents.
• It will intensify already existing local rivalries.
• Offer more and a wider variety of games from which television can choose.
• Each team has at least one nearby partner school for visiting teams to play consecutively, reducing travel costs (particularly for the olympic sports)
• Help in non-conference scheduling (see below).

The 12 members in the East Conference will form one subdivision. For their league games, they will play each of their 5 partners home-and-home and each of the 6 other members once – exactly like the A-10 used to be when it had 12 teams. Same thing applies to the West Conference.

Filling out your non-conference schedule with the 4x16 or 5x16 leagues may become harder if they wish to further exclude what they will perceive as mid-majors from their fiefdoms. If you need to fill out your out-of-conference schedule, you can do so with any member from the opposite subdivisions. They will not count as league games, similar to the Xavier/Butler game of this year. Those members will have to agree to multi-year home-and-homes with no buy games for either team, thus further reducing costs.

Finally, the conference tournament will include the top 4 teams from each division in the East playing to determine their champion and the top 4 teams from each division in the West playing to determine their champion and then having the automatic bid go to the winner between the final 2.

I understand that most schools in this league will have to come to grips with their “this is my territory” mentality similar to the way that Richmond/VCU and Temple/St Josephs/LaSalle have had to do. The fact is that most of these regional rivalries play each other once out of conference anyway, so now we are bringing that energy into the conference games.


EAST CONFERENCE

Northeast Division

Providence
Rhode Island
UMass
St. John’s
Seton Hall
Fordham


Midatlantic Division
Villanova
LaSalle
Saint Joseph’s
Georgetown
VCU
Richmond


WEST CONFERENCE

Midwest Division

Dayton
Xavier
Duquesne
St. Bonaventure
George Washington
GMU

Plains Division
Depaul
Marquette
Butler
St Louis
Creighton
Wichita State
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Old 11-20-2012, 10:47 AM   #128 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Old 11-20-2012, 11:09 AM   #129 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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Will this image be attached to all of Muddy's posts predicting the demise of Xavier?
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:14 AM   #130 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

Bernie has been pretty forward thinking and proactive thus far. Far more than Linda Bruno. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Commissioners talk and university presidents/athletic directors talk.

The A10 is a great place to be right now. I think the power of the teams - as a collective unit -- in this league have immense influence and leverage. Nobody owns us and nobody ever has. We might not be as rich as those football conferences, but nobody has the leverage to really blackmail us either into doing something we're not comfortable with. Nearly all the schools in the A10 have been rowing in the same direction for two decades. Something to be said for embracing common goals.
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:17 AM   #131 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I am confused. The Big East staying together and poaching A-10 schools for basketball only?

No way in the world they would do that. Travel costs increases tremendously and the exit fee close to $10 million for a conference that is fairly average for basketball is no way attractive for an A-10 basketball school. Some of the football schools in the BE for football are just terrible basketball schools.

Some merit for a basketball only conference but we have logically deduced that is neither feasible nor attractive.
I have heard that they are going to fill the football and then there is going to be a need for 1 basketball-only school and many have Dayton on the list. So if the Big East asks UMass and Dayton today if they want in do you think they turn it down? They may but it will be quite a decision if that happens.
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:27 AM   #132 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

My personal belief is that the Big East will survive but be weakened and the A-10 may lose 1 or 2 but can easily gain it back and be strong and the other 4-5 conferences stay around the 14 team level.
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:31 AM   #133 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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The Big 10 is now going to be more like the Big 15. I think arguably they are the best basketball conference with this move and can contend with the SEC in football. The A10 in my opinion moves up as a major conference...I mean who is left in the Big East after that.
You lost me at "they can contend with the SEC in football". In the last 6 years it is the SEC 6 and the rest of the world 0. In the history of the BCS, the SEC 8, Big 12 2, ACC 1, Big East 1 (with a team no longer in the BE), Big 10 1, and the Pac 10 1 (some would say 0 since the win was vacated by USC).

None of the schools being added will confuse the Big 10 with the SEC. What the Big 10 will do is become the premier basketball conference.
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:50 AM   #134 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

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I have heard that they are going to fill the football and then there is going to be a need for 1 basketball-only school and many have Dayton on the list. So if the Big East asks UMass and Dayton today if they want in do you think they turn it down? They may but it will be quite a decision if that happens.
If they do stay together, I would be shocked that the BE (or whatever is left of it) would go for a non football school. Why? Because of the the cluster f__k now that they have with all these schools with varying interests. Basketball only and football do not coexist and the BE will be destroyed because of this exact reason.

In addition, I could maybe see UMASS for football reasons going and I can not see Dayton in that circumstance. The $10 million exit fee (that will probably go higher after all of this) will be too much for a school like that for the slight upgrade (if any) that they would get. Traveling to SDSU, SMU, Houston, UCF, etc are just not attractive to any basketball only school.

Again who is going to provide this annual $5-7 million per school? ESPN.. No (they balked to EVEN OFFER during the non-conpete area).. CBS.. No (SEC dominated).. FOX.. (No west coast and has Big 12 and PAC 12 deals).. Only NBC could for their NBC Sports Channel and they wouldn't offer that much for second tier football when they already have a fairly large Notre Dame contract. Heck for Notre Dame would have stayed in the BE if this was going to happen for the Olympic sports as the ACC has been downtrending in basketball for the last 3-4 years. Heck the A-10 is projected to more bids than the ACC this season.
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Old 11-20-2012, 11:54 AM   #135 (permalink)
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Re: More BCS realignment

The Big East contract was supposed to be a rather large one until this happened. Even still so far they have only lost Rutgers and maybe UConn. It really depends on not just what other dominoes fall but the order in which they do. If it takes Louisville longer to bail because the Big 12 isn't looking to expand yet then maybe in that time the Big East adds and gets a tv deal. So there are about a million different possibilities right now. None that good for the Big East but it's not a doomed league yet although it's trending more that way currently.
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