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Old 12-07-2012, 07:43 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

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Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Indeed.


More RPI Rankings:

# 1 - Duke

# 11 - Indiana

# 91 - Weber State

# 99 - Kentucky

# 105 - St. Bonaventure
97 Dayton A10 .5564
100 Xavier A10 .5544
105 St. Bonaventure A10 .5509

Dayton is 55 thousandths of a point better than we are. I, for one, welcome our new Flyer overlords.
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Old 12-07-2012, 07:59 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

I like what I see from Xavier thus far, and am delighted with the record which stands in stark contrast to all the preseason pundits who were sure Xavier would be lucky to win 10 or 11 games for the season.

If Xavier can avoid injuries, and continue to improve the team could be a bubble team before you know it.
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Old 12-07-2012, 08:40 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
The Bonnies' best win of the season so far is against RPI # 193 Niagara.

Congratulations on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Indeed.

More RPI Rankings:
# 1 - Duke
# 11 - Indiana
# 91 - Weber State
# 99 - Kentucky
# 105 - St. Bonaventure
Contrary to popular belief, the RPI of your opponents matter FAR, FAR LESS than their overall win percentage.

50% of your RPI is your team's SOS. Your SOS is made up of about 900-1000 total games.
25% of your RPI is your Opponents SOS. Your Opp SOS is made up of about 28000 to 31000 games.


ALL THAT MATTERS IS WINNING NON-CONFERENCE GAMES. We want teams in the bottom half of the league to WIN OOC GAMES (most importantly) and if they're beating GOOD TEAMS, it's a bonus. But a win over team #343 is better for the A-10 as a whole than a loss to #1.
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Old 12-07-2012, 08:41 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

Wow, things are not as bad for UMass as I thought. They're more or less exactly where they ended up the regular season last year.
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Old 12-07-2012, 08:45 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

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Originally Posted by rusty X View Post
I like what I see from Xavier thus far, and am delighted with the record which stands in stark contrast to all the preseason pundits who were sure Xavier would be lucky to win 10 or 11 games for the season.

If Xavier can avoid injuries, and continue to improve the team could be a bubble team before you know it.
Well, that's the sticking point, right? Xavier has very little margin for error. I do think the Vandy loss was an aberration, an off night for multiple starters. But an injury or two and those early season predictions are not too far off.

I certainly hope not though. I'm a fan of the Xavier program, despite some of the more obnoxious X fans on here. A strong Xavier team is good for the league and good for putting some of the more elitist BCS programs in their place. Plus, I love watching Cincinnati lose, so if nothing else win that game and help bring their early season hype-fest crashing down.
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:09 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

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Originally Posted by jpschmack View Post
Contrary to popular belief, the RPI of your opponents matter FAR, FAR LESS than their overall win percentage.

50% of your RPI is your team's SOS. Your SOS is made up of about 900-1000 total games.
25% of your RPI is your Opponents SOS. Your Opp SOS is made up of about 28000 to 31000 games.


ALL THAT MATTERS IS WINNING NON-CONFERENCE GAMES. We want teams in the bottom half of the league to WIN OOC GAMES (most importantly) and if they're beating GOOD TEAMS, it's a bonus. But a win over team #343 is better for the A-10 as a whole than a loss to #1.
jp - agree that we want every one of our teams winning games. But, why is that ALL that matters? Not to overemphasize the value of the RPI (now or whenever), but the Bonnies won their last two games against Buffalo and Siena, and their RPI went from 62 to 105 in the process.
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Old 12-07-2012, 09:13 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Dayton is 55 thousandths of a point better than we are. I, for one, welcome our new Flyer overlords.
We are Olean's reckoning.
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Old 12-07-2012, 10:54 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

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jp - agree that we want every one of our teams winning games. But, why is that ALL that matters? Not to overemphasize the value of the RPI (now or whenever), but the Bonnies won their last two games against Buffalo and Siena, and their RPI went from 62 to 105 in the process.
Because of the relatively few games played to this point in the season. The logic goes something like this. The 25% assigned to your opponents' opponents means almost nothing because by the end of the season opponents' opponents winning percentages vary only in a tight band around 50%. The 50% weight of your opponents' records ends up meaning less than it would seem because the vast, vast majority of same end up between 60% and 40% with most ending up much closer to 50%. Individual team records vary by a much greater extent. So even though only 25% of the calculation is based on a team's individual record, it usually ends up the single biggest determinant of your RPI.

I can provide a much better statistical presentation of this argument, but I dumbed it down for the accounting majors.
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Old 12-07-2012, 11:16 AM   #24 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Bona Wolf for Pope View Post
We won all the games we were supposed to (based on early season volatile RPI), and lost to two teams who may end up being decent. Although I'd love to be 7-0 with wins over Indiana, Duke, Kentucky and Weber State (all the powerhouses), we needed an easier OOC schedule to figure out the team post-Nicholson.
That was pretty good.

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Old 12-07-2012, 11:27 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

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Because of the relatively few games played to this point in the season. The logic goes something like this. The 25% assigned to your opponents' opponents means almost nothing because by the end of the season opponents' opponents winning percentages vary only in a tight band around 50%. The 50% weight of your opponents' records ends up meaning less than it would seem because the vast, vast majority of same end up between 60% and 40% with most ending up much closer to 50%. Individual team records vary by a much greater extent. So even though only 25% of the calculation is based on a team's individual record, it usually ends up the single biggest determinant of your RPI.

I can provide a much better statistical presentation of this argument, but I dumbed it down for the accounting majors.
Thanks res. This accounting major appreciates it.
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Old 12-07-2012, 11:37 AM   #26 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

You were, of course, the intended audience.

btw, I should have said that a team's record relative to another team's record is usually the bigger factor in determining those two teams' relative RPIs. In an absolute sense, SOS does count more in determining a team's RPI, it's just that SOS has a smaller variance than does team record and therefore usually has less influence on relative RPIs.

Also should have added that schmack is talking about the effect on conference RPI and not team RPI. A team can ding its own RPI and ultimately help the conference and vice versa.

Last edited by res; 12-07-2012 at 11:50 AM.
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Old 12-07-2012, 11:56 AM   #27 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

I'm not sure I buy this line of thinking. If you're worried about team's relative rpi's you're probably talking about teams with fairly similar won-lost percentages. You could easily end up comparing teams that differ 5% in their won-lost record and 15% in their opponents' won-lost record. It seems to me true that if you compare the rpi of the #1 team and the #300 team, a big chunk of that will be their won-lost records. But if you're comparing teams on the bubble, I'll bet their opponents' won-lost record will provide more variability than their own records.
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Old 12-07-2012, 12:06 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

Yes, and if you're comparing teams with identical records, their SOS will have the only influence. I am speaking generally.
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Old 12-07-2012, 01:03 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

res, you did a great job of explaining the RPI logic, however, you have not factored in the fairy dust that Dukie V. and his ESPN henchmen spread every year over Big East teams and Duke and North Carolina. Somehow, not sure how, their ongoing bullshyt on every broadcast the network does, seems to do something to boost those particular teams.
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Old 12-07-2012, 01:22 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Re: 12/6/2012 RPI Update

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Originally Posted by res View Post
Also should have added that schmack is talking about the effect on conference RPI and not team RPI. A team can ding its own RPI and ultimately help the conference and vice versa.
That's correct (well, kind of. I meant all of our team RPIs, not an individual team's RPI).

The conference effect can negate the benefit of a strong OOC SOS if you don't win those games.

Obviously, marquee wins are important, a good OOC SOS is important, but not all of us are competing for at-larges and a good overall SOS/RPI is more likely if people are winning OOC games, regardless of their quality

Having a great RPI NOW doesn't do anything for anyone later. Having a good RECORD now does.
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