El Shaqtus

I honestly think SLU is out of the A-10 either way at this point.

Really hoping against hope it's the new league...the alternative is depressing.

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Mom, thanks for everything.

RIP Coach Rick Majerus 12/1/12. You were the one that said it was OK to think big at SLU. You were right.

KVBL Lexington Kings

Muddy Waters

I agree with both of your observations, El Shaqtus.

However, based on numerous recent articles I have read, I strongly believe that the New Big East will have 12 member schools and Saint Louis will join Dayton and Xavier in the West Division.

Here's the latest, but I wouldn't read too much into the omission of Saint Louis in the article:


Now that breakup from Big East is official, unified basketball schools continue to plot future (Associated Press/The Washington Post - December 17, 2012)

The breakaway from the Big East was only the first step. It will be weeks and months of uncertainty, and possibly lawsuits, before the final structure over this transition period falls into place.

The seven schools must decide who will join them in the new hoops-heavy conference, when they want to depart, where they’ll play a conference tournament, and whether they will attempt to keep the Big East name. Plus, the league will need a Commissioner.

There is no true timetable for any of those decisions. Like so many of these reshaped conferences that stretch from coast to coast, this new league won’t be confined to eastern teams.

Xavier, Butler, Dayton, Creighton, and Gonzaga, way out in Spokane, Wash., also don’t play major college football and would be natural fits to align with these Catholic schools. The league also will consider non-denominational schools, as well.

"They don’t necessarily have to be Catholic, but it could happen," Patrick Lyons, Seton Hall’s athletic director, said. "We’re not restricting it. We also have to consider our football-playing Big East partners and what they plan to do. But we’re extremely excited about being able to shape our future."

I'll eat my guitar if Saint Louis is not invited as one of 3 new members of a 10-school conference or as one of 5 new members of a 12-school conference.

Don't forget why Thursday's meeting of the Atlantic 10 Presidents was called in the first place: to strong-arm the Presidents of Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier into staying put:


No mention of Butler, which is significant.

It is self-evident that there have been informal contacts between the BE7 Presidents and the Presidents of Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier (who are quite likely acting in unison), and news of those informal contacts was brought to the attention of A10 Commissioner Bernadette McGlade. Her response to this news was to call Thursday's meeting.

It is also a foregone conclusion that Thursday's meeting of the A10 Presidents will result in failure, as the Presidents of Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier will refuse to agree to any iron-clad, binding commitment to remain in the Atlantic 10 for any specified length of time. Commissioner McGlade already knows this.

But that is not the real purpose of Thurday's meeting.

The real purpose of Thurday's meeting is so that Commissioner McGlade can fend off any future criticism of her actions (or inaction) after Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier move to the New Big East. "I did everything within my power to try to prevent Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier from leaving the Atlantic 10".

The Presidents of Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier are obviously aware of the real purpose of Thurday's meeting - as are the Presidents of the other A10 schools who will be attending Thursday's meeting. It's nothing more than a PR exercise, and everyone knows this, but it must be done for the good of Commissioner McGlade and the good of the Presidents of the schools who will remain in the Atlantic 10.

In short, Commissioner McGlade could not be seen to be doing nothing after she was informed that there have been informal contacts between the BE7 Presidents and the Presidents of Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier.

It will be very interesting to read the Atlantic 10 press release regarding the outcome of Thursday's meeting - in particular, the carefully-guarded wording of any so-called 'commitments' made by Dayton, Saint Louis, and Xavier.

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Title_BU

Are you honestly that much of a blithering idiot?

1. Two seperate sources on the discussions have leaked that Xavier and Butler are the targets.

2. Villanova's AD was specifically quoted saying the conference wasn't to be limited to Catholic schools yesterday.

3. 10 teams is widely seen as the most likely scenario and theres strong sentiment at just staying at 9.

= You're fu#*ed

-----------------------------

Honestly I have no idea why you were ever actually confident, average programs in small markets arent really in demand in these things.

Muddy Waters

Muddy's Observations:

(1) Basketball Head Coaches think in terms of the next 4 years, and think about basketball.

(2) Athletic Directors think in terms of the next 10 years, and think about the university's athletic programs.

(3) University Presidents think in terms of the next 20 years, and think about the University's future goals, present aspirations, past associations and history, tradition, and the university's cultural identity.

(4) Presidents of Catholic universities think in terms of the next 30 or 40 years, tend to be very conservative, and are more comfortable with each other's company than with Presidents of non-Catholic universities.

(5) It is the Presidents of BE7 Catholic universities who will be making all of the decisions and casting all of the formal votes - not the Athletic Directors or Basketball Head Coaches.

(6) A lot of conflicting 'information' is being selectively leaked to the media by unnamed sources, many of whom may have agendas that differ from the Presidents of the BE7 universities. Don't believe everything you read.

(7) The purpose and particulars of Thursday's meeting of the Atlantic 10 Presidents has not been disputed by anyone.

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Bona Wolf for Pope

We should engineer it so that Dayton goes to Catholic conference and Xavier stays.

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"Careful reading comprehension is crucial to an online forum discussion."

Title_BU

The only conflict seems to be in your head.

It's pretty plain to everyone else.

If there's 12, Dayton looks pretty good. Fewer is more likely however.

paulxu

When you talk about presidents looking out for their long term institutional viability, all you have to do is look at ND to see that it is $ driven.

The missing player in all the discussions is the $ provider...probably ESPN who helped create the Big East.

If the BE 7 looks to expand, let's assume that ESPN is at the table.
If they go to 9 or 10, Butler and X look to be the first targets as they provide the Indianaplis (Indiana) market that IU, ND and the Big 10 network dominate.

X gives them the Cincinnat market they lose (maybe) when UC goes who knows where.

Past that, St. Louis has the biggest market potential for TV with more than twice the people in Dayton and 50% more ESPN viewers.

From that standpoint, those are the 3 that make the most $ sense for conference expansion. Going to 12 presents more challenges. You would then need one in the mid-west, and one in the east, to manage travel schedules for 2 divisions. That leads to discussions of Creighton, Dayton, Richmond, VCU, etc. You might end up with another Jesuit institution in Creighton. Or Dayton. And maybe another non-Catholic to help balance Butler, with Richmond. Or, if it's dollars only, Duquesne for the market size.

Fun times!

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...he went up late, and I was already up there.

Muddy Waters

paulxu - perhaps you missed this:


Dayton is a college basketball town. St. Louis isn't.


College Basketball’s Top 25 Highest-Rated Markets (ESPN - November 8, 2012)

No. 8 Dayton

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paulxu

Good schools understand that finances are important for their longterm viability.

Philosophically the BE believes it plays a competitive brand of football.

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...he went up late, and I was already up there.

MudFlap

"...source close to those seven told The Post they intended to keep their postseason tournament in the Garden. That source said the Garden would welcome a league with the likes of St. John’s, Georgetown, Butler and Xavier."

paulxu

Some Math:

St Louis market: 1,243,490
ESPN college BB share: 1.2% = 14,922 TV sets

Dayton market: 498,270
ESPN college BB share: 2.0% = 9,965 TV sets

14,922 is 50% larger than 9,965

Since both St. Louis and Dayton are on ESPN networks only twice, one might assume that the ESPN viewing is not directly tied to their programs, but rather all college basketball viewing.

I have zero idea who the BE 7 will select. Too many unknowns. But the math is a known quantity.

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...he went up late, and I was already up there.

Bona Wolf for Pope

This should just be the board's motto.

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"Careful reading comprehension is crucial to an online forum discussion."

paulxu

Wait a second. Are you saying if I'm completely clueless, that I shouldn't have a cast-in-stone crazy opinion? Really?

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...he went up late, and I was already up there.

xu95

I think they go with 10 and pick Xavier, Butler, and St. Louis.

Bona Wolf for Pope

As long as that crazy opinion comes from a place of bias toward your own school, I think you'll be ok.

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"Careful reading comprehension is crucial to an online forum discussion."