xu95

Don't you think they actually got some advice from ESPN on what their TV contract will look like before they left.

We can opine all we want about ifs and buts, but as we all know, at least two and possibly as many as four A-10 teams are gone. There isn't a single school that is being rumored for an invite that will turn it down. Not a single one.

And trust me, every single one of the schools being considered think it is a significant enough upgrade to take the chance. The only people who don't think it will be an upgrade are the fans of the schools not getting invited.

xudash

BI85,

Very logical and well thought out post.

I believe you're spot on about how RPIs will adjust as these programs come out of the BE as it used to be.

Let me put it this way: this is very much like WWII naval aircraft taking off from the deck of an aircraft carrier that we've all watched in old war footage. The plane rumbles down the deck, goes off the front and actually dips for a couple seconds, and then begins to lift into the air. The BE7 + a, b and ? are going to hope that the collective RPI plane makes the dip and ascends, rather than experiencing the more calamitous result.

More to the point, I don't think they're moving forward like this without setting some material expectations. It's like they all have to be together for the new thing in order to get out of the old thing. But, from there, it would be perfectly reasonable to set expectations such that each and every member understands that this new league is truly going for the Holy Grail: the tops hoops-centric league in the nation. That means commitment and investment. The A10, in comparison, has refused to deal with the issue. This new group can and must deal with it.

So we can pick out a DePaul and beat them with a shovel all we want, but, at some point, perhaps they do get their act back together and return themselves to their Meyeresque days. Believe me, if they do that, watch out.

Overall, the thing will have to get put together with the right mix of teams, it will require a strong, binding aligned commitment on the membership, they'll need good management (Tagliabue said he would step back in and help if wanted) and they'll need strong television and marketing partners.

Brand.

Perception.

Finding a nice place in the pecking order of a sport now influenced by another sport.

If I recall correctly, St. Johns played UCLA at MSG earlier this year OOC. I know Georgetown and Marquette and Villanova have strong OOC games lined up. Xavier has done it for years. Butler just had a big game against the Hoosiers. None of that has to stop if this thing gets lift once off the deck.

It's about taking the chance to see if it can work; it's about making the best of an opportunity, if the opportunity presents itself.

AdamtheFlyer

The Great Midwest conference ended nearly 20 years ago. We are seeing many more quality teams and conferences worthy of multiple bids each year, and yet only 4 more bids are available.

__________________
Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism.

xudash

Some perspective from the Ohio State camp:

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/201...r-the-buckeyes

WARNING: the attached will have Muddled doing cartwheels. The irony is that the writer is operating under a false perception when he comes to referring to UD as a perennial tournament team along with Xavier. But when did true or accurate information or perspective ever get in MW's way!

Title_BU

I read something on the purdue board similar to the theme of that ohio state story. They are a little concerned about Butler (though Xavier would apply to if they had thought it more out), making it much more difficult for them from a recruiting perspective in the region

jpschmack

I think it's a no brainer for an A-10 team to join the BE7. But I think the "still being a tournament team" is not going to be a given for everyone. I don't think a 10-team "Catholic" or "New Big East" is going to rack up 5-6 NCAA bids every year.

This is the average record by place in the standings for 10-team leagues (multiple leagues, over 10 years of data)
1st: 14-4
2nd: 12-6
3rd: 11-7
4th: 11-7
5th: 9-9
6th: 8-10
7th: 8-10
8th: 7-11
9th: 6-12
10th: 4-14

I'm not going to get into which schools would finish where in that league. I'm going to ask: "Who in that league makes the dance if they finish 5th at 9-9?"

Using last season's OOC performance here's their resumes (entering the C10 tourney) if they were the one to finish 9-9:
-- Keep in mind that 9-9 could mean 0-8 vs teams 1-4 and 8-1 vs teams 5th-10th (no marquee wins! so I listed OOC marquee wins). OR if you beat some top four teams, you lost more to 6-10 (would these be bad losses?).

MARQ: 20-10 -- #23 Wisc
HALL: 20-10 -- #36 VCU, #69 St Joe's
GTWN: 19-11 -- #16 Memphis (x2) (2-9)
PROV: 20-11 -- (#115 Fairfield)
STLU: 18-11 -- (#71 Wash)
NOVA: 17-13 -- (#86 LaSalle)
DEPL: 18-15 -- (#144 MVSU)
XAVR: 16-13 -- Vandy, Purdue, Cincy
BUTL: 15-14 -- #47 Purdue
SJNS: 16-15 -- (#91 Lehigh)

Marquette, Xavier, G-Town and Hall could dance at 9-9 in that league. But those are also the teams most likely to finish in the top four of the standings last season.

I do not doubt that league will average about 4 or 4.25 bids a season; but I don't think they average 4.75 to 6+ bids a season.

I also think that the departing BE7 would take the "We're losing Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, etc! We better schedule MORE tough OOC games" approach, and have OOC records like Xavier or Nova (8-5), rather than Seton Hall (11-1)

Now, same exercise with 12 teams.
4th: 11-5
5th: 10-6
6th: 9-7
7th: 7-9

Since you have two more OOC games, you could get two easy wins, or an easy win and play one marquee opponent, etc. Here's your 6th place 9-7 team (2-0 or 1-1 in the extra games, no marquee wins added)

MAR: 21-9 or 22-8 -- #23 Wisc
SHU: 21-9 or 22-8 -- #36 VCU, #69 St Joe's
GTN: 20-10 or 21-9 -- #16 Memphis (x2) (2-9)
DAY: 19-11 -- #36 Alabama
VCU: 21-10 -- #52 USF
---
PRV: 21-10 or 22-9 -- (#115 Fairfield)
STL: 19-10 or 20-9 -- (#71 Wash)
NOV: 18-12 or 19-11 -- (#86 LaSalle)
XAV: 17-14 or 18-13 -- Vandy, Purdue, Cincy
DEP: 19-14 or 20-13 -- (#144 MVSU)
---
SJN: 17-14 or 18-13 -- (#91 Lehigh)
BUT: 16-13 or 17-12 -- #47 Purdue

You got five teams who are looking strong if they finish SIXTH. So all five are probably going dancing unless they go 7-9 in conference. And you have another five teams that would be on the bubble if they were sixth at 9-7. Hell, if things well right, someone like SLU or Providence could get in if they were in SEVENTH place. That's a 5-6 bid league every year.

You also have to remember that a 10-team conference tournament, the first game your 5th place team bubble plays is the 4th place team, but in a 12-team league, 5th and 6th place gets an extra win vs #12 and #11 before playing #4/#3 in the quarters.


That's working off a lot of assumptions, and nothing ever goes exactly the same way. But the cliff notes, on average...
5th place team in a 10-team league, loses in Quarters: probably 18-13 (4 bid league)
6th place team in a 12-team league, loses in Quarters: probably 21-11 (6 bid league)

Of course, as a Bona fan… go with 10!

xudash

How do the Indiana people see it, or is all this too far below them, especially after you beat them.

mateer

Actually, high end could be bigger as some sources say new league could be as large 14 or even an unwieldy 16. Common sense would suggest otherwise, and I think we all can be confident it will be smaller. However, we shouldn't ignore the glimmer of a chance as many as six (7?) or more A10 schools could move. If I were Fordham I'd certainly be game planning for that remote possibility too.

Is it an upgrade from the current A10? Yes, but only technically. And that's only if the top of the current A10 join them (but since we know that will happen...yes). As WH and others have pointed out, the sad truth is when the dust settles there won't be much difference between the best non BCS league, no matter its name or members in five years--as long as it includes Xavier, Butler, and some of the other top tier programs. Those that are in, will ascend or maintain (like they did in the Big East in the early 80s) those that aren't in will likely descend.

There are plenty of redundant warts and blemishes on the schools in the BE7 that plague the lesser members of the A10. They will be exacerbated without football monies and diminishing hoops money. Nonetheless, it's hard to argue that Seton Hall isn't a better problem to have than Fordham.

Is it the best case scenario for any of these teams? No. That's really where the discussion should be had (or should have been had).

The best would be taking most of the Big East 7 and the top of the A10. A maybe one or two other schools. Providence, Seton Hall, and others would be left on the sideline.

If schools like Dayton, Richmond, SLU, Rhode Island, St. Joes (on the bubble of this new league) had gotten together four years ago (now it's probably too late unless Xavier has some motivation to be be loyal to them and is interested in the extra burden of a last ditch effort to save its peers), the core of the A10 could have dictated the terms of the new league, and programs like Georgetown, St. Johns and Marquette would be the ones eschewing their inferior former conference mates and not the other way round.

It appears our ADs and Presidents did not predict the inevitable or game plan the best way to come out on top when the break-up happened.

Rather, we are scrambling now that it happened and cowtowing to schools trading on history long since past. As my dad used to say to my mother while waiting for her to pack her purse, put on her lipstick, and get out of the car in many a parking lot of my youth, "Why are you always surprised when we get to where we are going ..."

It appears the inevitable surprised some of us.

__________________

434

I think this is the best explanation. For the C7, the projected BE is
Memphis
Temple
SMU
South Florida
Tulane
Central Florida
Houston
+ C7
That won't be significantly better than the A-10.

So they can leave and join the A-10. But I'm not sure that is a significantly better than what they left. They would be leaving football money behind and joining a conference with about the same number of schools to have to split money with, but with fewer dollars coming in to split.

Final option is to go out on their own. Leave football money behind and build strong conference, which will negate that loss.

For X and Butler, it's a no brainer (or anyone else who gets an invite). Leave the A-10 for the promise of this new conference. If it succeeds, they will come out stronger. If it doesn't, it likely will be no worse than the current A-10. For X/Butler, it's a choice with maximum gain and minimal loss.

For the C7, if it doesn't succeed, it's potentially not a huge loss. They are risking leaving the football money behind, but considering what BE football will be in 5 years, that may not be very significant loss. Again if the conference doesn't become as dominant as the original BE was, it still will be on par with what they left or what the A-10 would be with them joining.

The risk/reward ratio is pretty much all reward as the risk really is small. The C7 and anyone who joins them won't end up in a worse position than if they stay where they are currently. But they might end up in a better position.

This is ultimately the truth. If a core group of A-10 schools had been a little bit more pro-active, then the A-10 could have been in a much stronger position. And the schools risk/reward ratio would have been much different. Where there would have truely been a risk of ending up worse off if one left the A-10 and the new conference didn't live up to expectations. And where you might have been able to be split up the C7 because the risk of going together on their own could have ended up being worse then just paying off the BE to leave individually, without the whole group, and joining the A-10.

So for all the arguments about the allure or perception of teams, RPI numbers, etc, it comes down to the fact, there actually is very little risk for X/Butler/UD to leave the A-10 for a new conference and only reward. The C7 are taking a bit more risk, as they are leaving behind football money, but in the end, I'm not sure that really is that big a deal. In the end, if the new confernce doesn't become the classic BE, the schools won't be any worse off than their current positions.

I don't think I have much more to add to this debate. But I would like to say, this discussion has been amazingly civil and informative. Although for various reasons, I never posted much (until this discussion), I have followed this board since its VOY days. And if the A-10 falls apart, I will miss it. There generally is informative debates/info presented. Besides the few delusional fans (which as a UD fan pains me to say, unfortunately too many of them were UD fans), this board is a great place to come to a discuss/read about college hoops.

xudash

So let there be a clear challenge now to the A10. If it's now clear that the alignment issue should have been resolved years ago in order for the A10 to be better positioned for this specific challenge, how does the importance of addressing alignment change now? It doesn't change, because the A10 isn't going to quit; it's going to move forward in some form.

In a sense, we as fans handled this topic over recent years as the President's and Bruno seemed to handle it: with kid gloves. This board always contained statements about not kicking teams out. The conference would/will never kick teams out. There was always a backlash against fans who brought that idea up, with the "arrogance" card being played about every time. It was even arrogant to bring up the notion of providing some clock for certain programs to address their shortcomings under some minimum set of standards structure. Action was avoided or ignored, and here we are. Enough of that. It's water under the bridge now, but that doesn't mean the issue - the opportunity - goes away.

What I'm suggesting is that the A10 should look long and hard at what may constitute its ideal composition once these exits by at least Xavier and Butler take place, if they take place. Does that mean everyone will be cranked up to storm the castle with torches to kick-out teams. No, not at all. What it should mean is that the A10 leadership convene to have a serious conversation about what alignment will mean for the A10 moving forward.

If the A10 truly wants to get serious about that, it has to first put Fordham under its heat lamp to truly determine Fordham's real intentions and true potential. It is an absolute disservice to the A10 and to Fordham's fans and alumni to continue the status quo. Have the hard dialogue. Come to terms with what it would mean for Fordham to continue in the conference, or come to a strategy for allowing Fordham a soft landing elsewhere.

Up next would be LaSalle. This one becomes more complicated, in part because LaSalle is going from a third wheel to one of two conference teams in a large town, upon Temple's exit from the league. At the heart of the matter with LaSalle is Gola Arena and fan support. For LaSalle to truly be relevant, those two key issues must be addressed. LaSalle clearly has tradition and history, but it is so dated that it has no relevance in today's events (sorry Steve, your NCAA banner means nothing for what is at stake here). If LaSalle can pursue a plan to strengthen key program elements, then give it the time and a road map for doing that, once LaSalle signs on for such a commitment.

Otherwise, the Bonnies are solid in the A10, and Duquesne has substantial capacity to be a player.

Keep in mind that the standard should be a program's ability to compete for NCAA Tournament participation. It's not about being happy with winning records or NIT invites, etc. Each program has to be positioned to compete for WHAT MATTERS TO THE CONFERENCE AND EACH SCHOOL. Every thing else is colored bubbles, as Gene Hackman once said.

With that in mind, should things break as expected, VCU, Richmond, St. Joe's and Dayton are poised to assume the flagship role, with GW and URI probably tracking along with them (UMass, too, should they remain in the conference). That's still a solid conference. Perhaps Mason and Davidson would be solid additions to that mix. Who knows at this point.

The point is to make the A10 as strong as possible should these changes occur. You can say what you want about the bottom of the BE7, but I remember DePaul during the Ray Meyer era. The "allure" has to do with greater perceived potential. Yet, beyond what may occur, the A10 may have its own chance to strengthen its stature. Take constructive action this time.

jpschmack

A great post.

But the Atlantic 10 DID see this coming and handled it very well. The BE7 are NOT against joining the A-10 just because:

-- Some schools aren't up to par.
DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall and St. John's have all kind of sucked themselves. Those guys each have the same number of bids as Bonaventure. They'd have no problem trading Rutgers and USF for Duquesne and Bona.

-- 21 is too many teams.
They have been in a league with 18 teams for seven years. A 21-team league would probably play 18 conference games. They'd be just fine with that.

The A-10 didn't reach this point by over-expanding. The BE7 WANTS Saint Louis and Butler. Charlotte is leaving anyway. They're considering VCU.

The reason the Atlantic 10 could never dictate terms to the BE7 because GW, St. Joe's, LaSalle, Fordham and URI are in the same markets as Georgetown, Nova, Hall, St. John's and Providence; The A10 was founded by and built on members that the BE7 are dead set against sharing a conference with. The A-10 wouldn't be as successful as it is now without SJU, GW, Temple and URI.

The A-10 knew it was coming, and knew they'd be raided, so they prepared by adding Charlotte, Saint Louis, Butler and VCU. 16 isn't our ideal number. The four extra teams were padding for the blow. The conference knew that if we stayed at 12, and the Big East split and took Xavier, Dayton (FCS), Temple and UMass (FBS), we'd be left with eight teams. Two defections (GW or Saint Joe's to the CAA?) and the league loses its auto bid. They handled it extremely well.

El Shaqtus

jp,

You've done a hell of a job laying out the arguments.

Bravo sir.

__________________
Mom, thanks for everything.

RIP Coach Rick Majerus 12/1/12. You were the one that said it was OK to think big at SLU. You were right.

KVBL Lexington Kings

paulxu

Man Shaq, that's a lot of bandwidth in your signature line.

__________________
...he went up late, and I was already up there.

El Shaqtus

I'm hoping to add to it actually.

Yes, I'm a nerd.

__________________
Mom, thanks for everything.

RIP Coach Rick Majerus 12/1/12. You were the one that said it was OK to think big at SLU. You were right.

KVBL Lexington Kings

Palestra1

Very well stated.

Regarding the "team(s) that the conference should have expelled" idea that continuously shows up on this board, it simply isn't how the process works no matter how often people suggest it here or on other message boards. The only instance in the past 50 years that I'm aware of where a FULL conference member has been expelled is Marshall from the MAC. That expulsion was for cause as the result of multiple NCAA and league rules violations. The only realistic option that the current A-10 members could have pursued given the absence of egregiuos violations of league by laws by the members proposed for expulsion, is what the WAC Airport 5 did when the left the WAC to create the MWC. Of course the MWC wound up without a NCAA auto bid for the first couple of years the conference operated. And the possibility of not having the autobid is precisely why universities are hesitant to go out and establish a new conference, especially among schools that lack clout in the NCAA and for whom basketball is the primary revenue sport. The BE7 appear to be confident that both they and the BE Nomads will have an autobid after the BE7 depart. They wouldn't be doing this otherwise.

As JP wrote the A-10 prepared for this as best they can. The A-10 for a variety of reasons, in part related to the fact that the conference was established before ESPN was launched and before the ECAC was dissolved wound up being second banana to the BE. It was never going to be in a position to take teams from the BE. However, more than 30 years ago the media were ready to write the A-10's epitaph because the league was losing members and couldn't get a decent TV contract. Yet here it remains still. The league will survive. This is just another in a long series of hits it's taken over the years.