jpschmack

xudash, that's a very reasonable and rational post.

I do disagree on what the standard should be.
Why should we really don't care if Duquesne, Fordham or LaSalle or whomever NEVER makes an NCAA Tournament out of the A-10? Do you want Fordham and La Salle going 12-4 in conference, getting NCAA bids and sending Xavier to a the NIT? Of course not. You'd rather have X pound those two and go to the NCAA again and again.

What DOES hurt us is when they (URI, GW, Charlotte, SLU, Richmond, my beloved Bonnies in the Scandalventure years) completely poop the bed OOC and have RPIs in the 250+ range.

I really hate to be a broken record, but this is exactly why I harp on the same thing. Having teams that lose a ton of conference games is a good thing… as long as they win OOC games.

We're talking smack about DePaul, Providence and Seton Hall for their non-dancing activities in the Big East:

OOC SOS:
2012: #48 George Washington (5-9)
2012: #139 St. John's (7-6)
2012: #196 Rhode Island (3-12)
2012: #232 Charlotte (8-5)
2012: #252 Fordham (7-6)
2012: #330 DePaul (9-3)
2012: #331 Providence (11-2)

This is CollegeRPI.com's index of "SOS Impact: (aka the best teams for your SOS)
#175 Providence (15-17) 0.4688 SOS
#200 St. John's (13-19) 0.4063 SOS
#202 Charlotte (13-17) 0.4333 SOS
#234 DePaul (12-19) 0.3871 SOS
#252 George Washington (10-21) 0.3226 SOS
#255 Fordham (10-19) 0.3448 SOS
#304 Rhode Island (7-24) 0.2258 SOS

The team that won the most OOC games, against the worst OOC SOS, had the best effect on their opponents' SOS (Providence).
(And Charlotte in the A10).
The team tthat won the fewest OOC games is the worst to play (URI).
The team that played a great OOC SOS (GW) does about the same as a team team that went .500 vs a bad SOS (Fordham).
ONE MORE WIN by St. John's overcomes 100 places in the OOC SOS standings to Charlotte.

Therefore, to me, all that matters to be a member of the league in good standing: Win 9+ OOC games.

MLH

I think this downplays the risk associated for a program like Xavier leaving.

The first risk is that the premier program (Georgetown) in the new league would jump to the ACC in a heartbeat and that there has been some talk of the ACC extending them a basketball offer. Without Georgetown, the new league looks a lot closer to the current A-10, especially when considering the current state of the Villanova program.

Secondly, as has been discussed in detail here, the bottom feeder programs of the C7 no longer are going to have the advantages afforded to them from riding Big East coattails. Financially, they will no longer be leeching football money and can't rely on gate revenue from hosting powerhouse schools. They aren't selling tickets to Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, and Notre Dame match ups anymore. Even the stronger programs they'll poach from the A-10 don't have much of a national profile and obviously have no history/rivalry with the C7. The bottom teams, with less money to spend, a worse conference reputation to sell recruits, and without the RPI advantages the old Big East held wil likely come a lot closer to mirroring the bottom dwellers of the A-10 quickly.

Time is another big factor that seems to be ignored. Most accounts seem to indicate that the new league wil not start until 2015 at earliest. However, obviously the new league will want committments from schools in advance for logistical and negotiating reasons. Will the A-10 allow departing schools to play in the conference tournament? Two years of not being able to play for an auto-bid is a significant burden.

The biggest risk is money. Xavier is going to pay a one million dollar exit fee and forfeit their right to all of the A-10 units (a great deal of which they earned) to join a conference that *may* be a long term upgrade if all goes well? Isn't that a very significant amount of money? Does anyone really think the TV money for what basically amounts to a slightly better version of the A-10 is going to be anything close to what the Big East was earning?

I still think the best case scenario is for those schools to hold firm, keep all of their money, and have Georgetown and Marquette replace Temple and Charlotte. For all those saying the C7 would never break up, Georgetown is one John Swofford phone call way from abandoning the rest anyway.

434

Good point. I hadn't considered the money X would leave behind. Would the new conference have to exist for 6 years before receiving any units for NCAA participation, or would they see money after the first year?
I guess while Butler left alot of money behind in the Horizon, it was easier to take because it was joining a league that had NCAA unit money to pay out.


This would be my ideal situation as well. This falls in the lap of X, as they are the major player in all of this. If the C7 can't pry X from the A-10, I don't think Butler goes. And not that UD is a huge player in this (but if C7 can't get X or Butler, they need someone), I don't think UD would leave. Perhaps a Fesitivus Miracle can still occur.

xudash

Will Swofford make that call? That depends upon whether or not he can keep the ACC relevant in football.

Let's do the math:

PAC12 - room for 4 more, but not inclined to add based on its options and television metrics; it would add from schools out west anyway = no impact.

SEC - has room for 2 and would most likely target 2 ACC schools = direct impact of 2.

B1G - has room for 2 and would most likely target 2 ACC schools = direct impact of 2.

B12 - has room for 6 and would most likely impact from 4 to 6 ACC schools, including UL = direct impact of 4 to 6, factoring in Boise State and others as alternatives.

BTW, it isn't clear that the powers-that-be are going to get to the 4 x 16 model anytime soon. This could end up being about the Big 5, but with the ACC being the weakest of the 5.

Nonetheless, we'll move on with this exercise in its most severe scenario. So we have 10 schools that would move to the other Big4 conferences to fill them out, should the 4 x 16 model come to fruition. Most likely candidates would be (most severe; I think Boise State would make the B12's cut, as an example):

- FSU
- V Tech
- Miami
- G Tech
- UNC
- NC State
- Duke
- Clemson
- Louisville
- Pitt

What does that leave in the ACC, assuming things break this severely? It leaves Wake and BC. It leaves Syracuse. In addition, UCONN is still laying around. First and foremost, Swofford is going to have to address football for the ACC. There is no way he'll immediately begin thinking about a hybrid format, because the ACC itself will disintegrate unless he puts football back together in some logical fashion. Think about it, if anything happens of this magnitude and he can't do that, the NBE could always change their stance on "privates only" and allow some of these lost schools to join them, essentially putting back together the cream of the old BE (i.e. Syracuse and UCONN). I doubt it would happen, but you never know. It's just another hypothetical outcome at this point.

At any rate, Swofford would have as his foundation an extraordinarily weak group of schools, but that was going to be the result of all this realignment anyway. Either the ACC was going to get pasted or the B12 was going to get pasted. Tobacco Road lost. So he moves forward with Wake, BC, and Syracuse and adds UCONN, UC, Temple, Memphis, USF, UCF and pick one to make 10. He stops there. From his vantage point, adding basketball schools will not move the television needle for him and he'll continue to emphasize an all-sports format.

From Georgetown's vantage point, I might get excited about the prospects of continuing with my major rival - Syracuse - and staying with UCONN would be nice, assuming it makes it past Calhoun, but I otherwise am starring at a mess. The only two schools I would have anything in common with academically would be BC and Wake. I finally woke up and figured out that a proper alignment with like-minded universities was the way to go. I'm the school that finally pushed for moving on with the other group 6 Catholic schools. That version of the ACC, at the margin, would not be worth it. And the current version of the ACC isn't going to come calling for a basketball school.

434

I think the A-10 would be making a mistake in not allowing departing schools to play in the conference tourney. While you would give the Auto-Bid to a "loyal" school, you might hurt the at-large chances of a bubble departing school. This might reduce your overall bids. And considering who the departing schools may be, I would want to make sure they made the tourney, and hope they can make another deep run, to Sweet 16 or Elite 8. The money they earn in the NCAA wouldn't be going to them, but the A-10, which they were leaving behind. Who knows how this will play out, but if the A-10 did punish the departing schools by banishing them from the conference tourney, I think it ultimately would hurt the A-10 more.

paulxu

Not really having a clue what will happen, at least the new league would have a lot more potential than the A-10. Here are the NCAA appearances (and resulting credits)for a potential 10 team new BE7 + 3 from the last 10 years

Xavier 9
Marquette 8
Villanova 7
Georgetown 6
Butler 6
Creigton 4
Seton Hall 2
St John, Prov, and De Paul 1 each

That's 45 appearances; take out Georgetown and it's 39.

Here are the 12 teams in the A-10 left after Temple and Charlotte leave and their NCAA appearances from the last 10 years:

VCU 5
Richmond, Dayton, GW and St Joe's 3 each
St Bon and St Louis 1
LaSalle, UMass, Duq, Rhode Island and Fordham 0

That's a total of 19 appearances.
That's not very similar.

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xudash

JP, my primary focus is on alignment. More to the point, it's on alignment that breeds competitiveness. It's about setting a high bar, such that any program within the conference should be positioned for material success. I understand some must win and some must lose. It's not that I disagree with your bar, because, at a minimum, every league member should at least contribute via their OOC results.

It's just that competition makes us better in everything we do. The league would have a better image if the public perception at the beginning of each season was such that every team in it always seems to have a chance at the post season.

MLH

I agree with you. That said, it's leverage that McGlade can and likely will use. Leaving the A-10 could leave you out of the tourney for two years which obviously takes you out of the running for an auto bid and greatly damages your chances at an at-large. Again, another risk factor Xavier needs to consider.


Well, a few points.

1) You're drawing from 5 different conferences there. The number will naturally come down when consolidated. I would be very surprised if Butler and Creighton were in solid shape for 10 at large bids combined over the past 10 years.

2) Villanova has 7, but they're the program that I think may be most negatively affected by the break up. They are already on the downturn and Wright's days may be numbered.

3) How many of those Big East at large bids came with a conference record around .500? That's not happening anymore. All the power schools are gone. You can't lose three straight games in February and see your RPI go up. The weak sisters of the C7 are going to be in trouble simply based on who has left, before you even look at the fact that their money is drying up. The bottom of the new conference will start looking very much like the bottom of the current A-10 sans Fordham.

It seems to me that if Xavier, Butler, etc leave they are doing the C7 a bigger favor than the other way around.

Xavier holds the power. Why are they paying a million dollars and forfeiting all the units they've earned to subsidize Depaul, Providence, and Seton Hall? Why don't they poach the top two programs now and add St John's if Fordham leaves? That potential conference would be as strong as the Big Priest anyway.

Keep in mind that no matter who joins them, there is no possible way that the current C7 will make as much revenue as they do currently. Expecting the results they've earned over the past ten years is unrealistic, they will be working with smaller budgets. The exact opposite will be true with the A-10. If Butler, Xavier, STL hold firm and pick off the only valuable teams from the C7' then SBU, LaSalle, The Dukes, etc will have a bigger budget than ever before.

I really think that Xavier is going to end up leaving a lot of money on the table to join a league that will look just like the current A-10 in 5 years.

paulxu

Some of your points are well taken, but they overlook a couple of basics:
1 - The BE 7 have already said they are leaving. Done deal. Cannot at this time expect A10 to reach out and grab a couple. They wouldn't have left (I don't think) without a binding arrangement to stay together.
2 - As bad as the bottom of the BE 7 might be, despite being in a full bore BE, they still managed to get some NCAA bid. You can't say that for the bottom of the A10.
3 - I can't imagine Xavier doing anything not financially in their own best interest. Possible? Sure, anything is possible. Probable? Not likely. Somebody, somewhere is doing the math. I expect they work for ESPN.

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paulxu

DP

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MLH

1) There are no binding agreements when it comes to conference realignment. Every school will act in their own best interest. Right now, the C7 believes it's in it's own best interest to stay together. If the ACC calls, Georgetown is gone in an instant. If the A10 holds firm, it very well may be in the best interest of Georgetown and Marquette to join. They don't think the A10 holds, and they're likely correct.

2) I concede that they have, my point is that I believe it's foolish to expect going forward. They used to have money, prestige, and built-in RPI advantages. They no longer do. He'll, give Fordham that extra money, allow them to sell recruits on their conference being the best basketball conference is the land, and have a bunch of other national powers artificially boost their RPI and I bet even they make the dance once in a decade. Those days are over. They were largely unsuccessful with all of those advantages, how are they going to be with a budget that's been slashed in half?

3) There's so much unknown that I don't think anyone can accurately do the math.

xu95

They already know the A10 won't hold firm. They have made calls to at least two schools in the A10 and both schools have already told them they will accept an invitation. The point of holding firm is long past. You can go ahead and assume that Xavier and Butler are no longer in the A10 and are now in some conference with the BE7. That right there already no longer makes the A10 on par with them. You can't count either Xavier or Butler in the A10 numbers anymore when talking about where they are status level.

There will be at least one more defection from the A10. Whether it be St. Louis, or Dayton or both, you have to take at least one of those two teams out of the equation. When you look at it from that perspective, the A10 isn't even close anymore.

Maybe it could have worked out where the A10 held the upper hand, but we are long past that point.

Bill Russell

I'm sorry, but this idea doesn't hold water. You may be right that the A10 won't be as strong over the long haul, but to suggest the losses of SLU and UD would be the cause of a massive gulf is a bit much. Xavier is a huge loss. No ifs, ands, or buts. Butler has never played an A10 game. It was great to see them join the league and I'm sorry to see them go, but they haven't contributed to the reputation of this league at all in the whole scheme of things. I wish them well, as always. Saint Louis was extraordinarily mediocre most of its time in this league. Majerus had them turning the corner and all, but that isn't an insurmountable loss. The same goes for UD. The potential loss of those fine facilities is disappointing, but the product on the floor will remain very good in this league. Again, these won't be the first defections we've ever seen.

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Title_BU

It's as simple as this. Butler has been said to be the "leader" for high 4-star Trevon Blueitt. That'd be much easier to close in the Big East.

Two years ago, when Cody Zeller was down to IU and Butler. Who knows what happens if BU had that name.

With Zeller, another Final Four wouldnt have been too implausible.

MLH

You're not joining the Big East. You won't be playing Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame or Pitt.

Look at the attendance. St. John's drew almost 20,000 for Syracuse last season in MSG. They drew 5,110 for Depaul. The only two teams Depaul hosted with an attendance over 10k were Cuse and Louisville. Seton Hall's three biggest draws last year were Rutgers, Louisville, and Notre Dame. Gate revenue will go down for the C7 teams as will the ancillary revenue. They are going to be getting less TV money and likely leave behind most of their NCAA units. When SH, Depaul, Providence, and John's have to drastically cut their basketball budgets, what do yo think is going to happen to these already unsuccessful programs? How is Marquette going to pay Buzz Williams more than $2 million per year? Does anyone really think that in 10 years this new conference is going to be anything different than what the A10 or MVC are today?