xudash

There wouldn't be much heat if you kept your trolls under control, but we know that isn't possible, so...........

butlerway

I haven't read most of this thread, but I'm assuming I will be repeating most of the same things. It's basically all about money and prestige. The conference is slightly better in terms of talent and "trims the fat" a little bit, as others elsewhere have said. It boosts the school's profile by being in the Big East and makes it easier to recruit. The new conference will get a larger media deal per team and will probably get about the same number of tournament bids but will have fewer schools to share the money with. Butler also an extra game in Chicago every year which they want (large Chicago alumni base).

GoMuskies

Louisville not playing Dayton anymore really has nothing to do with Dayton winning a few games in the series and everything to do with Denny Crum "retiring" and Rick Pitino coming on board. The scheduling philosophy is completely different there now, and not for the better.

AdamtheFlyer

Pitino scheduled Dayton to a home/neutral. Dayton won both. The talks of extending were limited to Dayton calling and Louisville saying no.

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GoMuskies

Yeah, and if Crum was the coach, that neutral would have been in Dayton, and the series would have continued.

xudash

Some interesting financial data here:

http://www.vuhoops.com/big-east/2012...hange-big-east

bprichard

Strange article. They talk extensively about X and UD's profitability, but they fail to list UD in their chart on the left. When you're a Dayton fan, you can find a snub anywhere.

They did shove it at the bottom as an update though.

GoMuskies

X and Dayton need to spend more money! Quit playing in those profitable arenas and start playing in less convenient, more expensive arenas. That seems to be the take-away. Also, I don't think they are comparing apples to apples here. I don't think schools account for the numbers submitted here the same way. Some obviously just zero out the athletic departement, so it's hard to say how much the actually spend on athletics and how much is just a distribution to the university's general fund.

434

As a Flyer fan, I have been debating with another fan the pros/cons of the A-10 v a new conference.

I finally took time to look at numbers to see if some initial impressions held up, in particular how valuable Providence, SH, St Johns and DePaul would be to link up with.

Long post. Hope you follow my thinking. Hope it is informative and gives you something to ponder.

RPI numbers aren't the best measure, but easiest to look up from year to year. And I know Big East plays the RPI game well so their numbers are probably inflated over A-10 teams numbers. But I think trends can be determined. I am looking at the past 10 years. This seems fair. It looks beyond recent successes. It also shows if teams have rebounded from a bad season or two. And it doesn't penalize a team that has had 1 or 2 bad recent seasons.

(I apologize for the format of the table. Hard to read. Getting late. Couldn't figure out why it wouldn't appear as I wanted it to.)


02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 Ave RPI
DePaul 81 30 63 90 56 157 205 217 233 194 132.6
Providence 56 23 93 105 78 109 77 147 158 156 100.2
St Johns 52 166 167 135 131 156 140 78 25 153 120.3
Seton Hall 45 21 133 62 156 113 101 70 103 69 87.3
Georgetown 74 138 77 26 6 8 66 16 15 14 44
Villanova 83 53 14 2 19 42 8 15 45 121 40.2
Marquette 7 67 94 40 26 20 27 56 49 9 39.5

UD 17 37 117 184 76 28 26 37 80 91 69.3
XU 23 20 130 72 27 9 15 17 26 37 37.6
SLU 77 58 184 102 74 135 130 80 183 28 105.1
Butler 21 152 239 80 22 16 22 7 19 105 68.3

VCU 135 45 91 74 44 60 51 46 31 34 61.1
St Joes 29 2 47 53 97 50 105 184 163 75 80.5
Richmond 106 39 146 205 272 129 124 24 33 131 120.9
URI 92 69 301 152 108 74 61 36 103 262 125.8
GW 163 65 61 31 70 185 203 148 150 189 126.5
LaSalle 189 170 215 103 268 163 110 178 172 96 166.4
Duquesne 252 162 258 308 219 130 76 112 100 110 172.7
St Bonnies 139 210 312 289 278 265 199 156 128 78 205.4
Fordham 282 212 189 138 112 172 292 304 255 242 220.2

Lets make some definitions
Top 50 Program - Regularly in Top 50 in RPI, thus regularly in the NCAA tournament
Decent Program - RPI 50-100 - Average team that makes occasional NCAA tournament, usually in NIT, occasional bad year (+125 RPI year).
Mediocre Program - RPI 100-125 - Average team that every blue moon makes NCAA tournament, occasional NIT, more than the occasional bad year.
Ehhh Program - RPI 125-200 - Below average team that has good year here and there
Crappy Program (original named this something else but will keep this kid friendly)- RPI +200 - Don't need to say much here.

What's the allure of the potential new conference:

Marquette, GTown and Nova have all 1 or 2 mediocre seasons in the past 10 years but are regularly top 50 teams. So adding in X, one would have a conference with 4 regularly top 50 teams. Butler would make 5 teams. (UD would seem to have advantage over SLU of being the 10 team in if just looking at these numbers. And with Majerus' death, I think that will hold true going forward. However, who knows what will happen.)

Assuming 10 Team league, you would have a conference of
5 Top 50 Programs-- (GTown, Marq, Nova, X, Butler)
3 Mediocre to Decent Programs - - (UD or SLU, SH, Prov) - Providence might be Falling to Ehhh status.
1 Ehhh Program (St Johns) - Still rather have them as my NYC representative than Fordham
1 Falling Towards Crappyness Program -- (Depaul) - They were actually half way decent until the past 4 years. Can they turn it around?

Compare to current A-10
3 -Top 50 (X, Butler, VCU)
5- Mediocre to Decent (UD, SLU, Richmond, SJU, URI) - URI might be in the falling category, but too soon to tell.
3 - Rising Mediocre - still ehhh (LaSalle, Duquesne, SBU) - Have shown some progress last few years to get out of the ehhh category. - Duq has shown most progess and might be a mediocre program now.
1- Falling towards Ehhh - Crappyness (GW) - Have had good years but the last few haven't been. Can they recover?
1 - Crappy (Fordham) - Had a couple of years where you might think they were Rising, but didn't last.

-Ignoring Temple and Charlotte who are leaving and UMass who may/may not be in league long term due to football priorities.

So what's the allure. Well the Catholic 7 have as many Top 50 programs as the current A-13. Moving to the new conference would give a conference with 5 Top 50 programs and less people to have to spread the cash around.

This is the fundamental problem with the makeup of the A-10. I really have liked the conference during the time Dayton has been a member, but there are too many mediocre to decent teams. These programs can't be counted on year in and year out, thus there is too much inconsistency. And when these teams are all poor the same year, it really drags the conference down (04-05 and 05-06 prime examples). When they all put it together in the same year, you get 2003-04. (I realize I could be considered hypocritical as UD can be considered one of these programs, unable to consistently reach the NCAA's)

So cutting the fat would seem like the obvious answer to strengthen the A-10. But who do you cut. Besides Fordham, the numbers are all over the place. Bonnies has the 2nd worst RPI average, but that is in part due to the scandal, They have been improving. So has Duquense, who while having a lower ave RPI than GW the past 10 years has outperformed GW the past 5 years. Is URI's previous year a blimp on the screen or are they going into a tailspin? Tell me what Richmond team we are going to see in any given year, the Top 50 or the >125 team?

I think for teams like X and Butler this is a no-brainer. Move to conference with more consistency. A conference that can generate as many bids as the current A-10 and not have to share that money with as many schools. A conference that would consistently earn 4-5 bids. While UD hasn't had NCAA tourney success or many league titles, after X, they have been the most consistent (only 1 bad season) of the long term A-10 members. St Joes is right there as well.

If UD wants to upgrade their conference situation, they have two options, somehow trim the A-10 or join the Catholic 7. Which is easier to do?

If the A-10 stuck together and the Catholic 7 found 3 other partners, it would probably be about the same level as the A-10. Same number of Top 50 programs. But likely (depending who would join) less crappy and ehhh type programs. And less teams to have to share money with. And with ESPN's backing more money to share.

I wish the A-10 and Dayton could make it work, but I don't see how. And thus, I hope UD somehow rides X's coattails once again into a new conference. The A-10, already losing Temple, without Butler/X will be significantly weaker. I suppose it would be easier to win and garner an automatic bid, but it would be the little brother to the new conference. For all the upgrades UD has made to its overall athletic dept the past decade, that would be hard to swallow.

That's my two cents.

jpschmack

Not to poop in your cornflakes, but since RPI comes from the games you play, and conference affiliation determine over 60% of the games you you play, taking the average RPI doesn't really work for those purposes.

The real value a school brings a conference (aside from TV dollars) is OOC wins. And that can be adjusted. I wouldn't see both leagues shoot themselves in the foot scheduling tougher OOC to compensate for those they are no longer playing with.

The single biggest factor is what this does to recruiting. I have no idea how DePaul could recruit C-USA and not the Big East. I also think that scheduling weaker OOC helps on that front: If you miss the dance, you'll still have the wins to recruit with ("We're close" you can tell kids).

It's "easy" to fake your way into the tournament thru RPI games and improve your recruiting by being on the bracket than to try and play your way in through tough games and lose until you can get better recruits.

X-band '01

You're in the wrong thread, son. Put your floaties on and get back in the delusional thread where you belong.

Muddy Waters

Great post 434. I tweaked the format of your excellent Table:

Final RPI Rankings: 2002-03 through 2011-12

No one is worried about St. Bonaventure.

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Bona Wolf for Pope

I didn't say that anyone was. You can't make up an argument and then take the con. SBU fans know where we fall in all this (it's not great) due to our poor performance, our location, and our budget. Given another five years, I think we'd have been in the conversation as two of those three are trending upwards, but that's not the way this is going down.

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BrownIndians85

Except for Dayton in March of 2003. Olean is very very scary.

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Bill Russell

Overall, SBU must be doing something right to draw the ire of 'uddy. It's pretty damn comical--to the point where I wonder if he isn't some recluse genius from GW or La Salle or Richmond just having fun with everybody. He's that unbelievable.

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