434

Is that statement based on just last year. That's why I created the table. To see what really is happening and not letting 1 or 2 recent seasons cloud one's judgement. Look at it. The past 4 years, RPI numbers of 8, 15, 45 and 121. Yes indeed it is a downturn, but you can't say it's a longterm one, or they are treading the waters of mediocrity. It's like Muddy saying X is in a downturn.

Small sample size, but in its 4 years of existence, the 6-7 team Great Midwest conference earned 13 bids. Average of 3.25 bids a year. In one year, it earned 4 bids. So roughly half the conference earned a bid each year, and considering UD was a complete non-factor in its 2 years in the GMC, you could say it was a 6 team conference for its entire existence. So indeed 50% of the GMC went to the tourney every year. I see no reason that a 10 team new league couldn't average 4 bids a year, with years of 5.

It also shows that maybe the Catholic 7 could survive a few years just on their own.

This is exactly why the new league is intriguing. The BCS leagues with the backing of football money will always be able to pay their basketball coaches more. The new league could generate more revenue for current A-10 schools like X and Dayton, by having larger TV contract and potentially more NCAA bids, while having fewer teams to split the pie with. It may not be a huge increase, but even if that works out to be $0.75 -1.0 million a year, that can be an extra million per year put into a coaching contract. And that might be enough to keep a coach.

The reality is that most basketball programs are built around the coach, not the school. Few is succeeding at Gonzaga. Calipari made each school he went to successful. Memphis and UMass had some history, but recruits weren't going there for that, they were going because of him. Schools like Carolina and Kansas, can draw recruits by being Carolina and Kansas. Most others are defined by their coaches, even what many consider big time programs. And even bigger programs than GTown have suffered due to a bad hire. The Big East was in part defined by the coaches in the league. So, I see no reason the new conference couldn't recruit and be competitive if it has the right coaches. What remains to be seen is if this is enough money to keep up and coming coaches at a school, like Stevens at Butler.

paulxu

Lunardi has an interesting review based on 12 years of NCAA credits, ooc sos, creating an index for all the usual suspects. Somehow he wants St. Joe's in although I would think Villanova would kill that. He also doesn't seem to take into account market possibilities but does think about travel with 2 divisions.

__________________
...he went up late, and I was already up there.

434

To make another reference to the Great Midwest, isn't that exactly what those schools did to UD. You being in our league is so bad, we will leave it to form a new league. Yes, that is exactly what X would be saying. Part me wishes the A-10 would show some solidarity, with X leading the way. But based on their legacy in the A-10, they have earned that right to say "Screw you guys, I'm outa here."

bprichard

Anything that fails to take into account Villanova's feelings about St. Joe's and market realities is naive. Nothing is ever purely merit based. And even when it is, St. Joe's numbers end up being insanely skewed by the Nelson/West years. St. Joe's shows few signs of returning to those days.

WVBilliken

Why join the BE7 forSLU?
1. Better fit - geography
2. More money
3. Better recruiting
4. Lower travel cost
5. More TV exposure
6. Better cultural fit
7. Traditional rivals - DePaul, Maquette, X & hopefully Dayton
8. NCAA success
9. Name recognition - Big East?
10. Big time conference

anXUfan

Markets don't matter as much for basketball. NCAA tournament units bring the cash.

NCAA Units Earned Over the Last 12 Years (2 6-year cycles):
- XU 26
- Butler 23
- Villanova 19
- Marquette 19
- Georgetown 17
- VCU 12
- Saint Joseph's 8
- Richmond 5
- Dayton 4
- George Washington 4
- Seton Hall 3
- Providence 2
- St. John's 2
- Saint Louis 2
- Depaul 2

paulxu

If you were making this decision only based on $, then it would seem like (to Xavier) that it would be beneficial to join the BE 7.
Over the last 6 (and maybe 12) years, XU has brought into the A10 the same number of NCAA credits as the other 13 teams combined.(not counting the additions of VCU and Butler)

If the new league offers an opportunity to have additional credits to be split among confernce mates, and a bigger TV $ revenue/team, then it makes a lot of sense financially to move.

__________________
...he went up late, and I was already up there.

xudash

This.

It's why the A10 isn't in the driver's seat with respect to realignment and countering the BE. Again, it's about alignment. The conference failed to get there. That didn't have to involve kicking out schools; that had to involve helping certain schools get up to a contributory speed. That never happened. And here we all are, waiting for phone calls from some other place.

dev56

Interesting take from Phiily paper on the breakaway schools http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/...sed_shot_.html

bprichard

Interesting article. The concerns listed are valid, but it doesn't get into the concerns posed by increased marginalization of the BE7 if they stay. This is their only chance to get away without paying a fortune in exit fees. They have nothing in common with the schools that have been added to the Big East to shore up its foundering football side. Their hand has been forced.

xudash

If it's about "not sure about this" for the BE7, in terms of whether or not they can make this thing work, what does that have to say for the A10 as it exists now?

Roll the dice, make the jump, and see if the new group can force the issue: become sufficiently relevant enough to be perceived to be a major basketball conference. We're back to marketing: brand, perception, positioning, etc. In short, it doesn't appear as though the A10 will be given the opportunity to win or fail at this level, though the A10 can continue to be successful in D1A basketball in the Big4's new world order.

xudash

Well, the following economics associated with the prospective new conference mates help to answer the question:

http://ajerseyguy.com/

NinerAdvocate

Wow. 131 replies? Seriously?

Let a soon to be outsider spell it out for you - 3 reasons:

1. TV Contract
2. TV Contract
3. TV Contract

/thread.

LSF (GW Fan)

As of this date (December 19th), conference is ranked 5 in RPI, 3 in strength of schedule. 12 of 16 teams are in top 100, with only 1 team ranked below 200. Yet many of you folks just can't wait for the the conference to blow up so you can join the Catholic 7. I just don't understand.

434

This is like using weather to debate climate change. Just because it's cold today doesn't mean global warming isn't a trend. Just because 12 teams are top 100 today, doesn't mean they will consistently finish there. It has been shown that doesn't happen. Also consider 2 of those 12 already are committed to leaving the conference (Temple, Charlotte) and another is not a sure thing for long term due to football (UMass) and now its 9 out of 13 teams.

And to play your game, the new league, C7 + X + Butler + UD or SLU = you get 8 out of 10 teams in the top 100. And that is likely to be more consistent year in and year out. And it's bottom feeder would be at 149 vs 260 for the A-10.