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Old 12-28-2012, 05:01 AM   #1 (permalink)
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2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions


Predicting the 2013 Men's NCAA Tournament (Jerry Palm, CBS Sports - December 27, 2012)
# 4 Seed (East) – Butler

# 7 Seed (West) – Temple

# 8 Seed (Midwest) – VCU

# 10 Seed (South) – Dayton

UD Makes Projected NCAA Tourney Field (Doug Harris, DDN - December 27, 2012)
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports.com posted his first NCAA tournament bracket of the season and has Dayton as one of four Atlantic 10 teams in the field as a 10 seed.

The Flyers, who are 9-3, are joined by Butler (a projected 4 seed), VCU (7), and Temple (8).

Palm was the founder of CollegeRPI.com and ran that site for years before joining CBSSports.com as a "bracketology expert."

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi hasn’t posted a bracket since Dec. 11, but he currently has the Flyers ranked 55th on his "S curve," which is how the NCAA committee seeds its teams. That means they’d be on the bubble. They’d have to be 49th or better to make the bracket.

Lunardi agrees with Palm that UD currently has the fourth-strongest résumé among A-10 teams.
Muddy's Observation: Douggie got the seedings for # 7 Temple and # 8 VCU wrong in his article.


VCU and Butler Enter their Debut Seasons as Favorites (Jeff Eisenberg, Yahoo! - December 27, 2012)




Butler's Rotnei Clarke
Conference favorite: In a wide-open league featuring a handful of teams capable of finishing atop the standings, VCU deserves the title of favorite. Thanks to their frenetic defense and the scoring of Treveon Graham and Juvonte Reddic, the Rams (9-3) have reeled off six straight wins since narrow losses to top 10 Duke and Missouri. Furthermore, they'll have an advantage in their debut Atlantic 10 season because most league foes will be seeing their trademark pressure for the first time.

Who else could win it: Between Butler's victories over North Carolina, Marquette and Indiana and Temple's upset of Syracuse, it's obvious VCU will have plenty of competition in the Atlantic 10. Rotnei Clarke and Kellen Dunham have delivered the outside shooting Butler lacked a year ago, while Khalif Wyatt and Anthony Lee have formed a formidable inside-outside tandem for Temple. Also, don't sleep on Saint Louis, which gets senior point guard Kwamain Mitchell back from foot surgery this week.


Fearless Predictions:

• VCU will win an NCAA tournament game for the third straight season and advance to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament for the second time in three years. What's more, the Rams won't need to pull any major upsets to do it. Expect VCU to receive a No. 4 or 5 seed if it can win the Atlantic 10 outright.

• Four or five Atlantic 10 teams will land NCAA bids, with VCU and Butler standing on the most solid ground entering league play and Temple in pretty good shape since its win over Syracuse should carry a lot of clout in March.

Of the rest of the league, gun-to-head, I'd give Saint Louis and Dayton the best shot. The Billikens have a bland resume right now but they'll get a much-needed boost from the return of Kwamain Mitchell, while Dayton already boasts quality wins over Murray State and Alabama.

2013 Men's NCAA Tournament - December 28th Bracket (WordPress.com - December 28, 2012)
# 3 Seed (South) – Butler

# 6 Seed (East) – Temple

# 6 Seed (West) – VCU

# 8 Seed (Midwest) – Massachusetts

# 9 Seed (West) – Dayton

# 10 Seed (Midwest) – La Salle


Out Today: Tennessee

First Four Out: Saint Louis, Nebraska, Tennessee, North Carolina

Last edited by Muddy Waters; 12-28-2012 at 06:02 AM. Reason: Muddy's Observation added.
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:32 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Dayton looking good before conference play.....where have I seen this before? Oh yeah, every season for the last decade.
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:48 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

I don't know who will win the league, but I do know Dayton will finish 8-8.
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Old 12-29-2012, 05:53 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions


Having everyone on the Roster healthy and uninjured during the non-conference part of the schedule, then losing key players such as Charles Little, Chris Wright, Rob Lowery, Luke Fabrizius, and Josh Benson after January 1st seriously impacts a team's success during Conference play.

If you realized that, there would be no need for your post above.

On December 19, 2012, Dayton lost PG Kevin Dillard with a back injury for the last four minutes of the game and lost 74-73 to Illinois State. Had Dillard been healthy and on the court for the last four minutes of the game, it is quite likely that the Flyers would be 10-2 now instead of 9-3.

Just out of curiosity, how do you think Richmond will fare during A10 Conference play if Darien Brothers or Derrick Williams goes down with a season-ending injury against Davidson tonight ?

Hopefully, no Richmond players will be lost for the season due to injury, but if that does happen, the Spiders will not fare as well in Conference play as expected.

Injuries to key players are part of college basketball, and the Flyers have been affected by this in recent years far more than most teams.

If everyone stays healthy this season, the Flyers will do a lot better than 8-8 in A10 Conference games.

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Old 12-29-2012, 06:37 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Dayton isn't a rebuild. It isn't a neat little story. It's a legitimate A-10 contender with an easy case to make for an at-large spot in the NCAA tournament. Who saw that one coming?

In the meantime, Xavier's off-and-on struggles -- which appeared to abate with a four-game winning streak in A-10 play -- reared their ugly head again. The Musketeers were mediocre on offense and downright bad on defense, allowing 87 points in 65 possessions, or 1.33 points per trip. Sometimes it's ugly offense, sometimes it's lenient defense, but in either case, it's clear Chris Mack's team hasn't put its midseason slide entirely in the rearview.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flyer75 View Post
"Three Unranked College Basketball Teams that will Make the NCAA"

1. Dayton Flyers - 14-5

The Dayton Flyers are 14-5 so far in the 2012 college basketball season. Dayton has wins over Wake Forest, Minnesota and Ole Miss from the major conferences, and quality wins over Saint Louis, Xavier and Temple.

The Atlantic 10 Conference has an overall winning record vs the major college basketball conferences, and is ranked ahead of the PAC 12 this college basketball season. Dayton had an RPI of 35 before their win over Xavier on Saturday, January 21, 2012.

Add all that up, and the Dayton Flyers are making the NCAA Tournament in 2012.
Early projections are nice and all, but as the ones noted from last year above point out, they often don't come to pass. Xavier's chances of making the NCAA tournament are very, very slim. But that is to be expected when you only return 16 pts/game from last year's rotation. Our record so far is pretty good given the players Mack has to work with this year. And of course he must accept the blame for graduating those seniors on time last year.
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:16 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions


Below is my post which paulxu excerpted above:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters on January 22, 2012 View Post

Re: 2011-12 Dayton Flyers - Post # 280


What We Learned on Wild Saturday Afternoon (Eamonn Brennan, ESPN - January 21, 2012)


Dayton 87, Xavier 72




What we learned:

The Flyers have come a long way since Nov. 30. That's when this team lost 84-55 to Buffalo at home, three days after winning the Old Spice Classic title game over Minnesota. Four days later, Dayton was blown out at Murray State. At that point, first-year coach Archie Miller appeared to have a sincere rebuilding project on his hands.

Nearly two months later, the Flyers are, well, flying. This 15-point home win over putative Atlantic 10 favorite Xavier puts them at 4-1 in A-10 play, another excellent addition to a résumé that includes victories over Alabama, Saint Louis and, most recently, a strong 10-point win at Temple.

Dayton isn't a rebuild. It isn't a neat little story. It's a legitimate A-10 contender with an easy case to make for an at-large spot in the NCAA tournament. Who saw that one coming?

In the meantime, Xavier's off-and-on struggles -- which appeared to abate with a four-game winning streak in A-10 play -- reared their ugly head again.

The Musketeers were mediocre on offense and downright bad on defense, allowing 87 points in 65 possessions, or 1.33 points per trip. Sometimes it's ugly offense, sometimes it's lenient defense, but in either case, it's clear Chris Mack's team hasn't put its midseason slide entirely in the rearview.

Josh Benson Suffers Season-ending Knee Injury (Dayton Flyers - December 31, 2011)
An MRI examination revealed that University of Dayton junior forward Josh Benson suffered a torn ACL in his left knee during last night’s 62-50 win over Ole Miss. The surgery and rehab to repair the injury will put Benson out for the remainder of the 2011-12 season. The 6-9 junior had started every game this year at forward for the Flyers.

"Everyone in our program feels for Josh right now," Flyer head coach Archie Miller said. "He was really playing at both ends of the floor with a confidence that comes from being dedicated to getting better every day. But he will still have a big role for our team as he comes back from this. We will need his leadership and enthusiasm with us as we head into conference."

Benson is UD’s second-leading scorer (10.9) and rebounder (5.2), up from averages of 5.6 and 3.5 a year ago. He leads UD and is fourth in the Atlantic 10 Conference in FG% (.610, 64-105). He scored seven points and had four rebounds in 11 minutes against Ole Miss before suffering the injury.

Benson had scored in double figures in five of the last six games going into Friday’s contest.

Dayton, who finished non-conference play 10-4, will play Saint Louis at home on Wednesday, Jan. 4 in the A-10 opener for both teams.

Josh Benson - Stats and Game Log (Yahoo!)


Even without Josh Benson, Dayton stomped Xavier.

Thank you paulxu for bringing this to everyone's attention.

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Old 12-29-2012, 07:17 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

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Originally Posted by ItsyBitsySpiderII View Post
Dayton looking good before conference play.....where have I seen this before? Oh yeah, every season for the last decade.
It's like being on a movie set - once they start shooting (in this case conference play) the Kraft Services Excuse cart comes out for lunch every day....

2008 - Nice OOC, Conference - Ooops - bad Philly Cheesesteak
2009 - Nice OOC, Conference - Ooops - the refs screwed is in ONE game
2010 - Nice OOC, Conference - Ooops - Sun got in our eyes
2011 - Nice OOC, Conference - Ooops - Hangnail
2012 - Nice OOC, Conference - Ooops - We actually had to play Buffalo on only one day of rest after a tournament
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Old 12-29-2012, 07:43 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by paulxu View Post

Our record so far is pretty good given the players Mack has to work with this year.
This is Chris Mack's 4th season as Xavier's head coach. This is the first team Chris Mack built and coached.

All of the players on Xavier's 2012-13 Roster are Chris Mack's recruits, with the exception of 5th-year defensive liability Brad Redford.
2007-08 – Sean Miller – 30 wins / RPI Rank # 9

2008-09 – Sean Miller – 27 wins / RPI Rank # 15

2009-10 – Chris Mack – 26 wins / RPI Rank # 17

2010-11 – Chris Mack – 24 wins / RPI Rank # 26

2011-12 – Chris Mack – 21 wins / RPI Rank # 37

2012-13 – Chris Mack – 7 wins / RPI Rank # 84*
* as of Saturday December 29, 2012.

Last edited by Muddy Waters; 12-29-2012 at 08:29 AM.
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Old 12-29-2012, 08:27 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

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Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Even without Josh Benson, Dayton stomped Xavier.

Thank you paulxu for bringing this to everyone's attention.
Well, that certainly explains the NCAA credits that Dayton earned for the A10 last year.
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Old 12-29-2012, 09:29 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by paulxu View Post
Well, that certainly explains the NCAA credits that Dayton earned for the A10 last year.
Xavier has earned as many NCAA credits for the A-10 in the past year (one year) as Dayton has earned in the past decade.

Since the 2000-01 season (12 years) Xavier has earned the A-10 26 NCAA credits. Dayton has earned the A-10 4 credits.

That pretty much sums up why Dayton may (notice UD trolls I said may, not will be) on the outside looking in of the new BE7+Xavier/Butler.

As our dear leader says, Dayton needs to start contributing, "it's fair share" and not just getting handouts from Xavier.
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Old 12-29-2012, 09:34 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Waters View Post
Having everyone on the Roster healthy and uninjured during the non-conference part of the schedule, then losing key players such as Charles Little, Chris Wright, Rob Lowery, Luke Fabrizius, and Josh Benson after January 1st seriously impacts a team's success during Conference play.

If you realized that, there would be no need for your post above.
I don't understand (and I will never attempt to understand Muddy's logic) why Dayton fans continue harping back to injuries are the reason they have been a woefully underachieving program, or just downright bad program for the majority of the past 4 decades (40 years).

It's as though they don't believe injuries happen to any other team in the nation. It's similiar to the "palpable" pressure and anxiety from the great UD Arena. It's like no other school in the country can pack an arena full with loud, crazy supporters and fans.
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Old 12-29-2012, 11:07 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

I predict the Dayton Flyers will not be invited to the 2013 NCAA Tournament.
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Old 12-29-2012, 03:51 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

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Originally Posted by xavierhoops View Post
It's similiar to the "palpable" pressure and anxiety from the great UD Arena. It's like no other school in the country can pack an arena full with loud, crazy supporters and fans.
Clark Kellog just referenced in the UK-Louisville game that the UK run would put the pressure on Louisville as they are the home team and expected to win. This is the pressure that was referred to. Pretty simple concept. If you don't get it, them I have to assume your education is lacking.
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:00 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

I have no stake in the Xavier-Dayton feud, but Muddy, you are so *****ng annoying.

The WORST kind of internet troll.
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Old 12-29-2012, 04:19 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Re: 2013 NCAA Tournament Predictions

KYFlyer, I'm not sure xavierhoops isn't 15 years old. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Young and old should post. But he so blindly continues to talk about "palpable pressure" that I mentioned after the Weber game as if a home team feeling pressure is some new, UD-only concept. It's mind-boggling. I've asked him to explain it and he refuses to. He has a very teenage-instigator relationship with UD fans.
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