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Old 12-30-2012, 06:25 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games


USC 59, Dayton 55 with 4 minutes left in OT.

Pierre with a 3-pointer !

USC 59, Dayton 58 with 3 minutes left in OT.





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Old 12-30-2012, 06:26 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

USC 62, Dayton 59 with 30 seconds left in OT.

USC has the ball.


USC 62, Dayton 61 with 5 seconds left in OT.

USC has the ball.


Final: USC 63, Dayton 61

Close, but no cigar.


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Old 12-30-2012, 06:27 PM   #48 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

Why is Derenbecker not in the game with Dayton down three with the ball?
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:30 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

Think they should have called the timeout. USC wins by 2.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:30 PM   #50 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

Damn. USC is going to get ravaged in the Pac 10. This loss will look very bad at the end of the year.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:32 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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Damn. USC is going to get ravaged in the Pac 10. This loss will look very bad at the end of the year.
That's the same thing we're saying at SLU about Washington. Now I'm thinking like Dayton fans?

I should grab a beer after that.
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Old 12-30-2012, 06:42 PM   #52 (permalink)
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That's the same thing we're saying at SLU about Washington. Now I'm thinking like Dayton fans?

I should grab a beer after that.
Hahaha. Well, at least we will have a USC/Washington match up to determine which is worse.

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Old 12-30-2012, 06:42 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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Originally Posted by El Shaqtus View Post
That's the same thing we're saying at SLU about Washington. Now I'm thinking like Dayton fans?

I should grab a beer after that.
We get it dude, Washington was a bad loss. Let it go. I swear you post this every single day between this board and the Billiken board.
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Old 12-30-2012, 07:16 PM   #54 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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Originally Posted by bprichard View Post
Damn. USC is going to get ravaged in the Pac 10. This loss will look very bad at the end of the year.
I'm not so sure. It was a bad performance, but if Dayton is on the bubble, I don't think this will be a killer loss. The committee will look beyond raw RPI numbers. USC has played a very tough OOC schedule, and by the end of the year should have an SOS in the top 30, which will keep their RPI under the "awful" level. Had they played the schedule Seton Hall did, which is a complete sham, they would be something like 10-3 and no one would bat an eye with a loss to them. Numbers are wonderful, but basketball people look beyond them.

Dayton actually beat the Vegas spread and the computers all had this as a near pick 'em. It's not like UD lost to NJIT. There are worse things than losing on the road to USC. There will not be a single bubble team without a few losses like this. The annual loss to Rhody that we all know is coming will be much more painful. Losing at home to a very good Illinois State team is probably more painful than this, because a missed chance for a good win will always hurt more than a road loss to a BCS league team. This was just a bad night.

My guess is USC does better in PAC 12 play than people think. They aren't going to win a bunch, but they can go 6-12 or 7-11. RPIForecast has them ending with an RPI of 172. That kind of road loss isn't going to end your hopes. Not to mention, UD will have about 10 chances for really good wins in A10 play. If they can get about half, and avoid multiple bad losses in conference, they'll dance. It all comes down to A10 play, as usual. We'll see if UD is good enough.

The 3 point line cost UD this game. 1-11 in regulation. Looking at the play by play, they scored 4 points on the same possession as a missed 3. So if they shoot their average from 3, basically 4-11, they gain between 5-9 points. I believe in changing something changes the future, so it's not a given, but 5-9 more points probably wins the game in regulation. Shots didn't fall tonight, that's basketball.

Everything else was ok. They shot a better percentage on 2s than USC, and scored 6 more points from the FT line in regulation. They competed on the glass and had fewer turnovers, including more steals (steals are much better than turnovers that create a dead ball scenario). And you really can't say they took too many threes, 11 is a good number. You just have to hit some threes to win on the road in modern basketball. They didn't. There's your game.
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Old 12-30-2012, 07:50 PM   #55 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

The oddsmakers were right on it seems. Home court advantage is a big deal. Shame though, would've like to see Dayton pull this one out.
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Old 12-30-2012, 09:58 PM   #56 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer View Post
I'm not so sure. It was a bad performance, but if Dayton is on the bubble, I don't think this will be a killer loss. The committee will look beyond raw RPI numbers. USC has played a very tough OOC schedule, and by the end of the year should have an SOS in the top 30, which will keep their RPI under the "awful" level. Had they played the schedule Seton Hall did, which is a complete sham, they would be something like 10-3 and no one would bat an eye with a loss to them. Numbers are wonderful, but basketball people look beyond them.

Dayton actually beat the Vegas spread and the computers all had this as a near pick 'em. It's not like UD lost to NJIT. There are worse things than losing on the road to USC. There will not be a single bubble team without a few losses like this. The annual loss to Rhody that we all know is coming will be much more painful. Losing at home to a very good Illinois State team is probably more painful than this, because a missed chance for a good win will always hurt more than a road loss to a BCS league team. This was just a bad night.

My guess is USC does better in PAC 12 play than people think. They aren't going to win a bunch, but they can go 6-12 or 7-11. RPIForecast has them ending with an RPI of 172. That kind of road loss isn't going to end your hopes. Not to mention, UD will have about 10 chances for really good wins in A10 play. If they can get about half, and avoid multiple bad losses in conference, they'll dance. It all comes down to A10 play, as usual. We'll see if UD is good enough.

The 3 point line cost UD this game. 1-11 in regulation. Looking at the play by play, they scored 4 points on the same possession as a missed 3. So if they shoot their average from 3, basically 4-11, they gain between 5-9 points. I believe in changing something changes the future, so it's not a given, but 5-9 more points probably wins the game in regulation. Shots didn't fall tonight, that's basketball.

Everything else was ok. They shot a better percentage on 2s than USC, and scored 6 more points from the FT line in regulation. They competed on the glass and had fewer turnovers, including more steals (steals are much better than turnovers that create a dead ball scenario). And you really can't say they took too many threes, 11 is a good number. You just have to hit some threes to win on the road in modern basketball. They didn't. There's your game.
I can see where you're coming from. Even with your optimistic assessment, we're talking about a bottom third of a weak BCS conference team that will likely end up with around 20 losses. It's not a season-killing loss or anything, but it's not going to look so good in the final accounting.
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Old 12-31-2012, 07:21 AM   #57 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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Originally Posted by AdamtheFlyer View Post
Dayton actually beat the Vegas spread and the computers all had this as a near pick 'em. It's not like UD lost to NJIT. There are worse things than losing on the road to USC. There will not be a single bubble team without a few losses like this. The annual loss to Rhody that we all know is coming will be much more painful. Losing at home to a very good Illinois State team is probably more painful than this, because a missed chance for a good win will always hurt more than a road loss to a BCS league team. This was just a bad night.

My guess is USC does better in PAC 12 play than people think. They aren't going to win a bunch, but they can go 6-12 or 7-11. RPIForecast has them ending with an RPI of 172. That kind of road loss isn't going to end your hopes. Not to mention, UD will have about 10 chances for really good wins in A10 play. If they can get about half, and avoid multiple bad losses in conference, they'll dance. It all comes down to A10 play, as usual. We'll see if UD is good enough.
I think the problem for Dayton will be there are really no signature wins. Every win is just kind of meh (the Alabama win is losing it's value by the day. They are sitting at 7-5 and just lost at home to Mercer and Tulane). As you kind of said, losing to Weber St, Illinios St and USC, doesn't give UD a whole lot of wiggle room for any real bad losses in A-10 play (Fordham, RI etc).

And I don't think the A-10 is nearly as strong as people hoped or anticipated 2 months ago. Outside of VCU and Butler, and to a lesser extent St Joseph's, the A-10 has really been quite average (although Charlotte has been playing much better than expected). Certainly not an opportunity for 10 really good wins. Maybe 5.
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:07 PM   #58 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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The oddsmakers were right on it seems. Home court advantage is a big deal. Shame though, would've like to see Dayton pull this one out.
Strange. I would have thought that Dayton would have had the court advantage due to not having to deal with the "palpable" pressure of UD Arena....
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:11 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Re: 12/30 A-10 Games

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We get it dude, Washington was a bad loss. Let it go. I swear you post this every single day between this board and the Billiken board.
Doesn't change it. Embarrassment.
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