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Old 01-02-2013, 10:33 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

Guys, GW is not as bad as people are saying. People are really predicting only 2 or 3 wins? Come on.

RPI Forecast and Pomeroy both predict 7 wins. Pomeroy has them at 113rd, which is 12th in the league. More importantly, GW's defense is MUCH improved - with Armwood leading the league in blocks and Garino already a lockdown defender on the wings despite being a freshmen. Their defensive efficiency is top 50 so far, better than everyone except VCU and SLU in the league.

And David Pellom may be back this week.

Look, their guards are a problem because they struggle with turnovers and outside shooting, but the defense is good and the frontcourt - with Armwood, Larsen, Smith, and Garino is one of the better ones in the league.

I don't know that GW can make the A10 tourney because the league is so strong... but don't go penciling so many wins in so easily over GW before you see the way they are improving.
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Old 01-02-2013, 10:58 PM   #32 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

Ok I looked at schedules and came up with this. Probably will be off because that's why it's sports.

VCU 12-4
Saint Louis 11-5
Temple 11-5
St Joes 11-5
Butler 10-6
Dayton 9-7
UMass 9-7
La Salle 8-8
Charlotte 7-9
Richmond 7-9
St Bonaventure 7-9
Xavier 7-9
Duquesne 6-10
George Washington 5-11
Rhode Island 5-11
Fordham 3-13
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Old 01-04-2013, 12:21 PM   #33 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

Taking schedule into account:

1. VCU - 13-3
2. Temple 12-4
3. St Joe 11-5
4. SLU 10-6 (wins tiebreaker)
5. Dayton 10-6
6. Butler 10-6
7. La Salle 9-7
8. UMass 9-7
9. Richmond 8-8
10. Xavier 7-9
11. Charlotte 7-9
12 St Bona 7-9
13. GW 6-10
14 Rhody 5-11
15 Duquesne 3-13
16 Fordham 1-15
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Old 03-10-2013, 03:58 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

My apologies to GW and their fans - hopefully they've got better days coming ahead.

I'm still scratching my head as to how Saint Joe's was able to lay eggs throughout the season. I just wonder which SJU team shows up in Brooklyn on Thursday.
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Old 03-10-2013, 07:58 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

So it looks like Fordham overachieved based on most predictions here.
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:24 AM   #36 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by antboy View Post
I think I'd put it at:
1. SLU - Once they reintegrate Mitchell, I think they'll be tough even without Majerus. Mitchell's one of the best players in the conference when he's healthy.
2. Butler - They're already doing better than I thought so maybe they belong in position 1.
3. VCU - I think they'll have issues with their physical D on the road in conference this year, will be interesting to see how they deal with that.
4. Temple - If Wyatt and Randall can get on track shooting, maybe they'll do better, otherwise that eventually limits them.
5. La Salle - Still a bit weak inside, but better overall. I have little faith in their coach, but the team has enough talent to finish higher.
6. St. Joes - Strange to see them struggle so much recently. They should be better.
7. Dayton - Not sure what to make of this team, now that the AL road win looks less impressive. Will they be able to win tough ones on the road?
8. Charlotte - They're a limited team, but will be in most games this year until the end in a sneaky way. Plus, the sched is actually semi-favorable for a mid-table finish, since they get most of the other middle teams at home (X, SJU, Umass, LSU, Dayton) and road games against teams I'm guessing are lower (Duq, Bonnies, URI, Rich, GW). Doesn't mean they win all those 10 games plus Fordham, but it's set up well for them if they take advantage.
9. Umass - They are capable of playing top of the conference ball. And then playing bottom-four caliber ball right after. Most inconsistent team I've ever seen. They'd be scary good if they figured out how to play well more consistently, but I don't see it happening this year.
10. Xavier - If everyone stays healthy and they learn to avoid foul trouble, this is way too low. But I'm dubious and think they will struggle on the road in conference and by the end of the season.
11. Richmond - I thought they were better, but the blowouts combined with the home loss to Davidson have made me doubtful.
12. St. Bonaventure - Not sure what to make of this team. Lose by a lot or win by a lot it seems. They tear up weak opponents pretty well.
13. URI - I'm not sure they're not better than this either. But youth will take it's toll in them losing winnable games.
14. Duquesne - I think they'll get exposed eventually, but are overachieving so far.
15. GW - Look pretty deficient so far. At least a year away? Surprised Lonergan isn't getting more heat for coaching to this point (at least on here, maybe GW fans are less sanguine).
16. Fordham - With Gaston back, they might be better, but the "talent" around him is still much too subpar. Discouraging that Pecora isn't doing better yet.
I was pretty much dead on about Charlotte finishing 8th (tied for 8th). I was off on GW, much better than I expected. Xavier also did much better, but I think X got a little lucky not to get many injuries with such little depth. SJU and Dayton finished lower. But as expected, the middle of this conference was kind of a crapshoot, and it in fact ended up as a huge bunch of mess at the end.

Glad Charlotte finally exceeded expectations of people on the board, though I'd have liked to see them higher obviously.
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:26 AM   #37 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by X-band '01 View Post
My apologies to GW and their fans - hopefully they've got better days coming ahead.

I'm still scratching my head as to how Saint Joe's was able to lay eggs throughout the season. I just wonder which SJU team shows up in Brooklyn on Thursday.
No worries.

What's amazing is that not one single prediction here had GW in the A10 tourney (despite as I pointed out, Pomeroy rating GW 12th heading into conference play.

It's hard to win in this league with a freshman point guard, but the front court with Armwood and Larsen leading the way is strong, and the defense is solid. No matter who is in the league, GW could be back in the NCAAs in two years, especially if high-scoring guard recruit Nigel Johnson (verbal but did not sign early) comes and lives up to the hype.
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Old 03-10-2013, 08:48 AM   #38 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by antboy View Post
Xavier also did much better, but I think X got a little lucky not to get many injuries with such little depth.
Justin Martin out for multiple games with a concussion (and really never the same after he returned). Dee Davis out for 1 1/2 major games with a sprained wrist. Landen Amos (you know X walk-on that turned into defensive star) out for the last 6 or 7 games. Semaj Christon in hospital at beginning of season and out for one game with major infection in his shooting elbow. And I believe Philmore was out for 2 games, but I can't recall for sure.

You probably didn't know because Xavier fans don't use this for an excuse. (In fact, Xavier beat #16 Memphis without our starting point guard in Dee Davis and defensive-man Landen Amos).
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Old 03-10-2013, 10:54 AM   #39 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by xavierhoops View Post
Justin Martin out for multiple games with a concussion (and really never the same after he returned). Dee Davis out for 1 1/2 major games with a sprained wrist. Landen Amos (you know X walk-on that turned into defensive star) out for the last 6 or 7 games. Semaj Christon in hospital at beginning of season and out for one game with major infection in his shooting elbow. And I believe Philmore was out for 2 games, but I can't recall for sure.

You probably didn't know because Xavier fans don't use this for an excuse. (In fact, Xavier beat #16 Memphis without our starting point guard in Dee Davis and defensive-man Landen Amos).
Lots of small injuries, few if any at the same time, and only the unexpectedly good walkon who averaged less than 8 minutes a game was lost for more than two games. I think you're supporting my point, every team has at least the kinds of small injuries you cite, but many have much bigger losses during the course of a season. Doesn't mean Xavier didn't overachieve even with that little bit of luck.
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