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Old 12-31-2012, 07:46 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Conference Schedule predictions

I did not partake in the preseason predictions because I think it is nearly impossible to guess at that stage, but now that we have all seen the majority of the non-con, it can be discussed and argued with something to back it up. Needless to say I think there have been some surprises (My own team - Umass - is not looking as good as I thought for example).

While Winning the regular season championship is nice, getting the first round by is really ipmportant, and priority 1. For the sake of argument, I am looking at who I think can be a top 4 and who has a legitimate shot at the big tourney.

This is not in any particular order - just as I thought of them off the top of my head:

Butler - They have a great shot at winning the conference in their virgin season, and are as close to a top 4 lock as anyone. I also think they are a favorite to win the conference tourney. They are definitely a tourney team and have proven that they are coached to peak for the tourney.

VCU - similar to Butler, they are a tough tourney team to play against, so I expect them to be in the top 4 and have a great shot at winning our conference tourney as well.

Umass - one of the bigger dissapointments as far as I am concerned. I am not sure if it is Sean Carter's absense (which I do not) or if DK is just not reaching these guys, but are just not playing with the intensity or sense of urgency. As much as they played together last year, they are playing "not together" this year. They lost all three of their NCAA resume builders, with two of them being complete blow outs. They have shown no ability to step on lesser opponenets and put them away. I am not sure they are much better that an 8 or 9 win team in conference and I really do not think they have a shot at the NCAA tourney as of right now. They should still start conference play with 10 wins, so if they can finally wake up, they still have a high ceiling, but it will only take one bad loss to derail them.

URI - clearly they are a year or two away and should be in the bottom 4.

Bonnies - I think Schmidt is one of the top 5 coaches in this conference, and they have been more than respectable so far. I think they can be near .500 in confernce.

SLU - A very respectable non con record, but it looks similar to Umass in that they lost all of their NCAA resume builders - unlike Umass though, they did pout the wood to the teams they should have rather than letting them hang around. I am not as high on them as I was 3 months ago, and I think they finish just outside the top 4, which makes them a bubble team IMO.

Temple - A head scratcher loss with Canisius - then a head scratcher win versus Syracuse. I think they have the biggest swing potential - meaning that they could win 11 or 12, or come in with 6 or 7. I think they could be exposed by streaky play which makes thejm prone to losing the toss up games. I think they could and I think should be on of 4 teams that can get the 4th bye. That Syracuse win was huge for their NCAA chances, but they still need to win at least 10 in conference to go with that.

X - They came out of the gate hot and have now cooled considerably, but I don't think they have the horses this year. That is not a surprise to anyone - even the Xavier faithful. As much as some of the red sweater wearing folk would like to have you think it, Mack is a really good coach, and this is a temporary down year. I think they will struggle to be .500 but they are certainly not a bottom 4 either.

Dayton - Better than I expected (so far). They ahve two really good wins at Alabama, and versus Murray St, and one bad loss with Weber St. I think they will definitely have the upper hand with X this year - not onbly will they score more points head to head, they will have a winning record too! I think they could be in the mix for the 4th bye spot. Posting purely on observation and not with a personal agenda to take a shot at (you know who you are).... Dayton always has a crushing loss or two and it happens at the worst time (in early to mid February). This year's stretch features St joes, Temple, Rhody, X and Umass. History predicts 2-3, but they can and should go 4-1. If that happens, not only do they get a top 4, I think they may actually cash in some NCAA points!

Dukes - at 7-6 they have already won as many as I thought they would win for the year. They will still more than likley be in the bottom 4, but they may hand out one or two killer losses along the way.

LaSalle - Great looking record, but god-awful SOS. They have a decent win versus Villanova, but they have to win against Miami, or they have little chance at dancing without a doubke digit confernece win total and an A-10 conference finals appearence. I am having the hardest time projecting for this team. They should contend for a top 4, but could be 9-7 just as easily. Ultimately, I do not think they dance this year.

GW - Bottom 4 team. They do not have the personnel to hang in conference.

Fordham - Unfortunately, they are just not getting it done again. They actuall have two nice wins at Penn and vs Princeton as underdogs, but they are looking at another possible last place finish and certainly a bottom 4 finish.

St Joe's - Tehy have been a bit of an enigma to me as well. Their OOC schedule looks good on paper, but it only registers an SOS in the 60's and 3 of their 4 losses came as favorites... I was much higher on them 3 months ago, and like Umass, I think their style of play last year gave teams fits, but I think teams have a game plan how to slow them down. I think they fall out of the top 4 but still get to 10 wins - and they are a bubble team for the NCAA's.

Richmond - Until the last three losses, I thought they were the sleeper pick. Now I think they are part of the log jam of teams that will be in the middle group. See end...

Charlotte - All I can say is WOW! Alan Major is the next Calapari, or the stink of thier Non-con SOS (a smelly #295) is smoke and mirrors. I am for the latter. They played one decent team in Davidson and won as an underdog and got schelacked versus the only good opponent in Miami. They are probably the best of the bottom group, but that is about it.



I forsee a really drastic separation of three groups, with the top 3 hogging wins (all with 11 or more), the bottom 5 getting all their wins against each other and the middle group of 8 separated by 2 wins and beating each other up and some ugly tie breaker to settle the 4th position. I think that middle group is going to screw the confernence out of a 4th and/or 5th NCAA team as nobody will be able to separate. I think there are going to be a lot of dissapointed people in Amherst this year......

For what it is worth, I think Temple, LaSalle, St Joe's and Dayton have the best shot at getting the 4th bye position. Butler, VCU and St Louis should be the top three in no particular order. The bottom feeders should be Charlotte, URI, GW, Fordham and the Dukes.
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:07 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

Can't really argue with your appraisal of UMass, although I'm not disappointed with them. I just see them in transition and still figuring it out. But 10 wins in the conference would be very successful, in my opinion. I'm not as skeptical about La Salle. They crushed Siena away, whereas UMass just squeaked by them.
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:21 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by uz2b-len View Post
Can't really argue with your appraisal of UMass, although I'm not disappointed with them. I just see them in transition and still figuring it out. But 10 wins in the conference would be very successful, in my opinion. I'm not as skeptical about La Salle. They crushed Siena away, whereas UMass just squeaked by them.
La Salle also had to beat Northeastern on a last second buzzer beater, whereas UMass put them away before the final minute.
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:28 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

My Predictions:

1. VCU -at-large
2. Butler -at-large
3. SLU -at-large (if they beat New Mexico tonight)
4. La Salle - conference tourney champs
5. UMass -at-large
6. Temple -NIT
7. Charlotte -NIT
8. Dayton -NIT
9. St Joes
10. Xavier
11. Duquesne
12. Richmond
13. Bonnies
14. URI
15. GW
16. Fordham
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Old 12-31-2012, 12:31 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by z8-Minutemen View Post
La Salle also had to beat Northeastern on a last second buzzer beater, whereas UMass put them away before the final minute.
???? That game was tight for UMass until the end as well. Not sure if your synopsis is correct. La Salle also has another scorer that became eligible. I think UMass and La Salle are quite even and just outside the top tier of the conference but both of them have the ability to make a run in the A-10 tournament.
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Old 12-31-2012, 01:00 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

Lasalle season will come down to whether they play defense...

This has always been the question for them...

If not, NIT again...
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Old 12-31-2012, 01:45 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Lasalle season will come down to whether they play defense...

This has always been the question for them...

If not, NIT again...
NIT being more likely.. Miami will obviously be huge..

La Salle even if they lose to Miami, I wouldn't be surprised if they still have a top 50 RPI because their SOS will get a major bump (Miami SOS RPI 18).. Not to mention I believe 10 games left with sub-100 RPIs in conference scheduling..

Also not to be looked over, the A-10 schedule will actually boost a lot of teams SOS as the conference has 10 teams with sub-100 RPIs...
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:13 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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NIT being more likely.. Miami will obviously be huge..

La Salle even if they lose to Miami, I wouldn't be surprised if they still have a top 50 RPI because their SOS will get a major bump (Miami SOS RPI 18).. Not to mention I believe 10 games left with sub-100 RPIs in conference scheduling..

Also not to be looked over, the A-10 schedule will actually boost a lot of teams SOS as the conference has 10 teams with sub-100 RPIs...
UMass's RPI and SOS will drop before the conference schedule (especially if there's a loss) with games against the heavyweights Miami (OH) and Eastern Michigan. Won't be worse 100, but also won't be in the 30s.


I think there's a pretty clear cream of the crop in the conference...and UMass is not in it. My prediction is that I'll be slightly disappointed with the results for UMass, as we most likely end up in the NIT again and set ourselves up for yet another year of too high expectations.
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Old 12-31-2012, 02:30 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

La Salle should beat Miami, whose big man Reggie Johnson is out with a broken thumb. He killed us. Without him, we beat Miami. That said, La Salle beat us twice last year. In my opinion, that makes them better than us.
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:37 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Temple - A head scratcher loss with Canisius - then a head scratcher win versus Syracuse.
I dont understand what either of those mean. Are you saying Canisius is a head scratching loss with knowledge of Canisius or are you saying that just because they're Canisius? Yes, we absolutely should have beaten them, but it's not like we lost to Central Connecticut State. Canisius is 9-4 with losses to Syracuse, UNLV (hung with them until late), a very solid Detroit team, and Stony Brook, who was preseason #2 in America East just a few votes behind Vermont. I dont know what a head scratcher win even means, but this is the 5th straight year Temple has beaten a top 10 team out of conference. Temple let MCW shoot all he wanted and ate up Cuse's zone.
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Old 12-31-2012, 09:40 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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Originally Posted by z8-Minutemen View Post
My Predictions:

1. VCU -at-large
2. Butler -at-large
3. SLU -at-large (if they beat New Mexico tonight)
4. La Salle - conference tourney champs
5. UMass -at-large
6. Temple -NIT
7. Charlotte -NIT
8. Dayton -NIT
9. St Joes
10. Xavier
11. Duquesne
12. Richmond
13. Bonnies
14. URI
15. GW
16. Fordham
You should've lost to Northern Illinois. You're sure as hell not getting an at large with your best wins over Ohio U and Harvard.
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Old 12-31-2012, 11:44 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

1. VCU (at large)
2. SLU (at large)
3. SJU (NIT) - I disagree Butler is in the top 3 no matter what. I think a rough double vs. SLU ends in a split, and SJU's double over Fordham bumps them to #3.
4. Butler (at large)
5. Temple (tourney winner again)
6. La Salle (NIT)
7. Dayton (NIT)
8. St. Bona
9. Richmond
10. Xavier
11. UMass
12. Charlotte
13. GW
14. Duquesne (get URI at Palumbo, otherwise would be flipped)
15. URI
16. Fordham
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Old 01-01-2013, 05:47 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

1. BU
2. TU
3. VCU
4. SLU
5. UD
6. LU
7. SJU
8. XU
9. UM
10 RICH
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Old 01-01-2013, 06:45 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

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You should've lost to Northern Illinois. You're sure as hell not getting an at large with your best wins over Ohio U and Harvard.
Arguable that those are the best wins to date. But anyone with half a brain knows that a prediction at this point assumes some quality wins in conference, which would be better than Ohio, Harvard, Providence. You have the thinnest skin in Internet history.

Do you pull for every college team with recent sexual misconduct issues, or just temple hoops and BU Hockey?
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Old 01-01-2013, 07:32 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Re: Conference Schedule predictions

VCU 14-2 (NCAA 4 seed)
Butler 12-4 (NCAA 6 seed)
SLU 11-5 (NCAA 8 seed)
La Salle 11-5 (NCAA 11 seed)
Temple 10-6 (NCAA 12 seed)
SJU 10-6 (NIT)
Dayton 9-7 (NIT)
Richmond 9-7
UMass 8-8
Xavier 8-8
Charlotte 7-9
St Bona 5-11
GW 5-11
Duquesne 4-12
Rhode Island 3-13
Fordham 2-14
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